BTCETH trade ideas
Big altcoin move incomingThe ETHBTC chart is very helpful for identifying when altcoins are about to have a strong move, the reason for that is because Ethereum tends to run the entire altcoin market. It isn't a perfect indicator, but in general if ETH is performing well, then so are many other altcoins.
ETHBTC is currently retesting a resistance line that it broke below. This is technically a bearish retest, but if ETHBTC can break higher, this could be the opportunity for much of the money in the market to flow into the altcoins. However, on the other hand, if this bearish retest is confirmed it could be very bad for the altcoin market.
This isn't something I would front-run a trade on, but gives us some insight that the next move in the market could be a large one. And it's always good to revisit BTC outlook to see how these may overlap. And in the chart below we can see BTC is still in the range that we have been watching for over a week now.
So the scenarios that could play out are the following:
ETHBTC bearishly retests and BTC breaks lower, altcoins will get crushed if this happens
ETHBTC bearishly retests and BTC breaks higher, altcoins will likely not trade very well. This is similar to some of the altcoin trading we've had in the last few weeks.
ETHBTC breaks higher and BTC breaks lower, altcoins could be difficult to trade in this scenario as well, likely a mix between some bleeding out, some moving higher, and some stationary.
ETHBTC breaks higher and BTC breaks higher, altcoins will see significant upside if this happens.
My motive in these scenarios as I've mentioned in recent posts, is just to remain on the sidelines. I only like to trade when there is a clear advantage on my side and I don't currently see it. So rather than betting on one side, I opt to just keep my capital safe.
Happy trading!
Inverted HS Pattern on Weekly?Possible inverted HS forming on the weekly Ethereum / BTC chart. Question is - are we forming the right shoulder now, or will we see a strong dip forming a more symmetrical right shoulder first?
Chart is marked Long, but could be a strong short down towards 0.02 btc prior to turning long. Need to see weekly break and hold above the neckline before actually positioning a long.
🔥 Become A Better Trader By Using The ETH/BTC ChartBitcoin and Ethereum are respectively the largest and second largest crypto by market cap. Officially, ETH can be seen as an altcoin, which has historically behaved differently from Bitcoin.
A rise in the ETH/BTC chart generally means that altcoins (=everything which is not BTC) is outperforming Bitcoin on average. The inverse is also true.
However, when we apply the RSI to the ETH/BTC chart we can generally pinpoint the moment of a 'change in market sentiment'. In other words, the market will become volatile after the ETH/BTC chart has become oversold or overbought.
During the bear market, an overbought ETH/BTC has nearly always been the signal for a coming dump. During the bull market, an oversold ETH/BTC has nearly always signaled an upcoming bullish move (scroll left on the chart).
As seen on the chart above, ETH/BTC was severely oversold two weeks ago. With nearly all on-chain metrics saying that the bottom is in, this oversold reading might signal that we're going to see a move up in the near future.
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ETH/BTC Bear Flag Pattern Forming Attention traders,
I am sharing my analysis on ETH/BTC trading at 0.064 BTC. Based on the chart pattern, I have a bearish outlook on this pair.
Currently, a bearish flag is forming, and I am waiting for a breakdown for strong confirmations. The bear flag support is around 0.063 BTC, and the resistance level is at 0.066 BTC.
As per my chart analysis, I am expecting two targets:
Target 1: 0.0583 BTC
Target 2: 0.0532 BTC
This represents a potential 17% downside from the current trading level.
Please remember to place your stop loss as per your preferred risk-reward ratio. Stay vigilant and trade responsibly.
Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and not financial advice. Always conduct your research before making any trading decisions.
Violent move ahead!I don't know exactly what the fundamental rationale will be, but if we break to the upside there will be a huge spike in the ETH/BTC ratio. Perhaps we will see BTC rise sharply first, and then ETH catch up. I would expect something like ~30,000 USD/ETH and ~200,000 USD/BTC.
Uncropped chart:
ETHBTC Altcoin indicator recovery due for alts? ETHBTC is used against Bitcoin, meaning, when Bitcoin is bullish ETHBTC will be bearish and when ETHBTC looks bullish Bitcoin will be looking weak.
Ever since 2016-2017 crypto investors have been using this tool as an early indicator to get in alts and to find "alt seasons".
You can also use this as an indicator along with Bitcoin to find when alts are going to be bloody all along. Whenever this indicator is looking bearish you know alts are going to be bearish together.
If you did not this before, let me narrow down the importance of using ETHBTC as an indicator to find ALT pumps or ALT szns:
-Ethereum Dominance: Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization after Bitcoin. It has a significant influence on the overall cryptocurrency market, and many altcoins are built on the Ethereum blockchain. As such, ETHBTC can be a good indicator of the health and performance of altcoins.
-Historical Performance: The historical performance of ETHBTC during previous altcoin seasons has shown a correlation between the price of ETH and the price of altcoins. When ETHBTC is rising, it may indicate that altcoins are also likely to rise in price.
-Trading Pair: ETHBTC is a commonly used trading pair on many cryptocurrency exchanges, which makes it easy to track and trade. Investors can use ETHBTC to monitor the performance of altcoins and make trading decisions accordingly.
-Technical Analysis: Technical analysis can be used to identify trends and patterns in the price movements of cryptocurrencies. By analyzing the charts of ETHBTC, investors can identify potential buying or selling opportunities for altcoins during alt seasons.
-Diversification: Investing in altcoins can provide diversification in a cryptocurrency portfolio. By using ETHBTC as an indicator, investors can identify potential opportunities to diversify their portfolio and potentially increase their returns.
-Market Sentiment: The market sentiment towards Ethereum and Bitcoin can impact the performance of altcoins. If investors are bullish on Ethereum, it may indicate a positive sentiment towards altcoins as well.
ETHBTC hitting monthly support, likely to bounce from this zoneETHBTC is hitting monthly and weekly support level. This zone should be a good place for it to bounce. There is another weekly support sitting here in case this one fails but I think this is already a good zone for bounce. It is possible that the price might spend some time inside this zone before it starts upward movement.
A big correction is coming for ETHA triple flat was formed, and it was a correction for the previous decline, and it is about to complete the correction, and the decline will be completed, and Ethereum and alternative currencies will weaken accordingly, and the acquisition of Bitcoin will be strengthened at the expense of currencies and Ethereum
#Bitcoin Gains 12% versus ETH in Less Than 10 DaysPast Performance of ETHBTC
Bitcoin bulls are in the driving seat, adding 12% versus ETH, looking at the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart. Notably, the coin is within a breakout formation, forcing ETH back below October 2022 lows. As it is, BTC bulls can continue looking for entries on every attempt higher towards resistance at 0.066 BTC, targeting 0.058 BTC in the short term.
#ETHBTC Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, the uptrend is clear. Even though BTC bulls are in a commanding position, it is evident that ETH bulls are in charge from a top-down preview. Notice that from June 2022, prices were mostly in consolidation, registering a bull flag until last week's push lower below the base. Still, ETH buyers are in a good position as BTC pushes hard, retesting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. ETH might recover, but this may first require prices to expand above 0.066 BTC with rising volumes. In the short term, losses below 0.062 BTC may trigger even more losses towards 0.057 BTC, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June to September 2022 trade range. Aggressive traders can continue shorting any push higher with targets at this week's lows.
What to Expect from #ETHBTC?
Bitcoin bulls are in control, outperforming ETH in the short term. Since price action is within a bearish breakout formation, the downtrend remains, and prices might contract even more toward 0.062 BTC.
Resistance level to watch out for: 0.066 BTC
Support level to watch out for: 0.062 BTC
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
You don't know how to manage your portfolioI had a talk with my mentor earlier today, and we talked about how we each calculate the signal for our allocation towards ETH compared to BTC.
It got me thinking that a lot of people actually aren't aware of why they allocate capital to different assets in the same class!
Case in an upwards trend
When the trend is up and you want to maximize your returns in crypto, with the least amount of risk... What do you do?
Well, you know that alts are higher beta (they move more than BTC), but you don't know when BTC will alts...
In the case for my conservative portfolio I only hold ETH and BTC, but how do I allocate between them?
What I first and foremost do is look at the dominance chart for BTC:
Here we see the dominance of BTC going down a lot, this is while the market is up (between 18th of jan 2021 and 19th of may 2021)
The TPI informed us about the entire trend for the dominance chart. What you do in this scenario is now determine how much ETH you hold relative to BTC in this period (in your conservative portfolio)
Open the ETH/BTC chart (I use binance personally)
In this period we see ETH outperforming BTC a lot!
When the TPI is bullish for the ETH/BTC pair, it means that ETH is likely to outperform BTC, how did that prediction go?
As BTC dominance falls, and we see strength in ETH compared to BTC, we have a higher allocation towards ETH.
But Omar, how do I quantize the amount of ETH compared to BTC?
No one asked, but I will answer still:
The TPI gives values between -1 and 1, I normalize these values between 0-1 for the ETH/BTC pair, where 0 is 0% allocation and 1 is 100% allocation towards ETH:
Equation for normalization:
minValue = 0
maxValue = 1
(TPI - minValue) / (maxValue - minValue) => (TPI - 0) / (1- 0)
Since the TPI had been bearish with a TPI value at -1 for ETH/BTC since the 13th of march, 100% of my conservative portfolio is in BTC!
Case in a downwards trend
The method is the same, but reversed!
When we look to maximize our returns on a short we want to short the asset that is underperforming!
ETH was underperforming BTC by a large portion during the LUNA drama:
This means most of the conservative portfolio was short ETH, rather than BTC
Quite simple, but very effective!
In conclusion
I want you to ask your self, why am I allocating x% of my capital towards this asset (long or short), and is my allocation optimal?
If you can't answer these two questions, then you probably need to look at your system
Numbers don't lie, this method works!
The TPI is truly the holy grail for a swing trader who wants to use statistics and data to maximize their returns and minimize their risk!
Kind regards
Omar
I've linked an idea below from a dear friend of mine (much bigger than on this platform) who has marked out crutial levels for the altcoin market based on what the FED will do, give it a watch!
ETH/BTC possible bounce entryAs BTC is ripping , altcoins are getting destroyed.
This is mainly because people are switching their altcoins into bitcoins in order to preserve their bitcoins. Bitcoin just went 70%+ in 1 week and destroyed altcoins there leaving them behind .
Above, i have provided possible targets to where altcoins can start bouncing.
EthbtcRetesting the .618 here
Probably as low as we go here imo
Infinite use case eth has been hardly effected by the bear market at all on the btc pairing
This is the area to scale across imo
Charting vs eth here for the rest of the year given eths 1st full market cycle chart
Deflationary aspects of eth should kickin sooner rather than later in terms of price action