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BTCEUR trade ideas

What I THINK will happen next..Hello there, I'm a newbie on this site and I'm also a newbie in trading analysis overall, but on the other hand I'm trying to learn so don't take any of my ideas too serious because they are more like my personal log of fails and successes. So, here's how I came up with this idea: 1. We are still in bear market since we didn't went through ATH so I think that this last trend was just one of short-term uptrends 2. Bitcoin's price fell below previus highest low which is considered half signal (I think?) 3. We are way above long-term Moving Averages so correction is needed 4. Volume during that last dip didn't really increase, which means that buyers probably think that the price is still too high/to risky 5. Pattern is very similar to that one when BTC went to 54k EUR just at smaller scale Maybe I forgot something, but yes, this is my idea and if you like it please leave a like or comment of what you think about it because every little tip would help me in my learning journey. Thank you
by blackdaemon96
6
Nostradamus 101: BTC EUR 1 month aheadSince many of you have messaged me for an update, here it is. >>This is not financial advice. If you can make the most of this analysis, great. Enjoy.<< Let me preface by saying what I always say: divide any advice by half and conduct your own research! So, to recap. BTC was at its all-time high in mid-April, back when our friend Musk announced that you'll be able to buy TESLAs with BTC... or so we thought, I mean this is how news cycles work boys and girls, they take time to marinate! Besides, markets naturally go through 3 phases: Accumulation, Hype and Distribution. Nonetheless, our billionaire buddy decided to defraud his own followers for a quick buck. Frankly, sickening, and what's worst, is that people still look up to him as some messiah. Relax, he is just an inventor, a good one, but nothing more, another industrialist who is willing to sacrifice his own people for his own benefit... nothing new. Then we had the El Salvador news... another news cycle, and on top of that, news coming out of one of the most corrupt countries... I mean we know about lobby, which is technically another word for insider trading / promoting interests of others... so why were we surprised to see a head and shoulder pattern? We weren't... we saw it coming, all of us, we just didn't want to believe it. Remember kids, news cycles mean: insiders have already accumulated and set a trend, then the rest of us retail investors rush out of FOMO, then the same insiders distribute (sell) hence making a chunky profit. And unlike us poor pleebs who expect 20-40% gains, billionaires with their billions should be content at say 3-10% which is already plenty... so when you see a new trend set by news cycles, read between the lines... because that is when you begin to view the market broadly... that is when you begin to understand how and when big money makes moves... remember, a billion-dollar trade would probably takes days to complete, you wouldn't be able to click market order... that way, you as a savvy billionaire lose money... so start visualizing how the players of the market could potentially act... also picture what would make them sweat and act out of FOMO (a feeling more frequent in retail noobs). As for today, now we have the Amazon news cycle which has been drowned by the potential of U.S. regulators taxing cryptocurrencies. So what now you ask? Many things, depends on the combination: 1. Amazon did not confirm use of BTC, it confirmed use of cryptos in general at some future date, potentially December of this year (makes sense cyclically). Now the danger is: Amazon reverting on their announcement with something like: "we will look into it next year", "we are not ready yet" or, worst of all for BTC, "we will start off with our own coin and then make it available to the rest...". There are a million ways this could pan, but what is almost certain is that Amazon, Tesla, the Musks, Bezoses and Bransons of this world give 0 **** about you, they care about money, power and legacy... so watch out... 2. In previous analysis I mentioned that unfortunately (particularly for the naive) BTC was created with other intentions in mind. Money laundering. Absurd you say.. long story short, industrial shadow governments and mafia farms (in China, Russia, North Korea, Iran etc...) have mined BTC for the last decade... and are currently offloading... I mean this does not mean the end of BTC, but not the 100k we dreamed off, at least not right now... sure, there is buying power, but no volume, volume is with the billionaires, corporations and shadow players... we (retail investors) are but a speck in this ocean of BTC volume... therefore just keep it in mind when trading. 3. Lastly, nothing is ever what it seems, even the patterns that we do know of change / reverse / break... remember, if you had a billion and you want to short a currency... all you must do is trade the closing of each pivotal candle (e.g. 1h, 4h, 6h, 12h, 1d, 1w) - this means that you could (and they do) sacrifice a couple of million in losses to ensure that a candle closes a certain way to show a certain pattern (FYI: called institutional candles)... remember guys, all you fundamental and technical analysts... patterns are all about ' the self-fulfilling prophecy', this means that once there is an idea in the world, and enough people are exposed to that idea, and then it manifests, it almost naturally forces market players to react in a certain manner, and this means, nothing is ever what it seems. Hope this helps you trading warriors. Adjust and overcome. Safe trading.
BShort
by epiclegendaryman
3
We're not out of the woods yet. < $20K BTC is still possible. This is the same idea as last one but with Candles so that new bars will load (this feature is not available for Renko bars). An Expanding Triangle is a pattern that starts with the price action squeezed tightly in the Apex (dotted blue line). There will be usually at least two swing highs and two swing lows in price. Overall volume usually diminishes as the pattern develops because traders become more and more unsure as to the market’s future direction. Also there may be several intermediate failed efforts to reach either the support or resistance as outlined by the triangle extensions. If the action creates a new bearish breakdown, typically the action will repeat the volatility experienced with the Pole creation (the vertical blue lines). We also need to pay close attention to the volume after the breakdown to recognise further development for the pattern. Another breakdown downwards is possible. Let's see what's gonna happen. Safe trading everyone.
Long
by unexpect-the-expected
< $20K BTC still possible. We're not out of the woods yet.I got rid of the noise by using Renko bars and saw a potential Bear Expanding Triangle in development. An Expanding Triangle is a pattern that starts with the price action squeezed tightly in the Apex (dotted blue line). There will be usually at least two swing highs and two swing lows in price. Overall volume usually diminishes as the pattern develops because traders become more and more unsure as to the market’s future direction. Also there may be several intermediate failed efforts to reach either the support or resistance as outlined by the triangle extensions. If the action creates a new bearish breakdown, typically the action will repeat the volatility experienced with the Pole creation (the vertical thick blue line). We also need to pay close attention to the volume after the breakdown to recognise further development for the pattern. Another breakdown downwards is possible. What do you think of this pattern?
Long
by unexpect-the-expected
2