BTC at a Crossroads: Key Levels to Watch (95k–90k)What Time Horizon is Most Relevant?
• Short-term (2H, 4H): A bearish bias is visible (MTTFI red), but sentiment indicators are low → This is the timeframe where one could attempt a scalp/swing rebound, provided a well-defined stop is placed below ~95k, for example. However, there is a high risk of being stopped out if the correction deepens.
• Medium-term (12H, 1D): Still in an uptrend. It’s better to wait for a clear pullback towards support levels (MTTI: Long Term ~93–94k on 12H, 95–98k zone on AVWAP) or for an invalidation signal (a clear break below 89–90k).
In practice, the wick below 95–96k or a break below 89k will be decisive. For a “safer” trade, many will wait for daily confirmation (e.g., a candlestick that strongly bounces above 95–96k) before positioning themselves.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
1. Supports
• 96k–98k: Support zone via Auto AVWAP (Low), short MA daily (~98.4k), and the baseline on 2H/4H.
• 89k–90k: Critical level; below this, a deeper correction could follow (70k…).
• Lower levels: 85k–80k, or even 73–75k (if a major liquidation event occurs).
2. Resistances
• 99k–100k: Includes long MA 2H (99.16k) & short MA 4H (~99.4k) → A challenging zone to break in the short term.
• 103–104k: HiAVWAP on 12H/1D. A breakout above this would confirm a new rally.
• 110–115k: Potential targets if the uptrend resumes.
Recommendations
1. General Convergence : The higher timeframes (12H, 1D) remain “bullish”; indicators are far from extreme overbought zones (ISPD < 0.97, RSI not too high). Therefore, a positive medium/long-term bias remains as long as 89–90k holds.
2. Short-term Divergence : The 2H/4H timeframes are under pressure (short MA < long MA). However, we see signs of “selling pressure exhaustion” (ISPD Div Pro < 0.3, Mason’s satisf ~0.20), suggesting a potential technical rebound if no major negative events (Trump, macroeconomic factors) emerge.
3. Strategy
• Intraday (2H/4H): Possible “buy the dip” around 95–96k, with a tight stop loss below this level (or below 89k for a wider stop). Beware of volatility risk if geopolitical tensions escalate.
• Swing / Position (12H/1D): Wait for confirmation of support in the 95–98k zone. If it holds and rebounds, target resistances at 99k and then 104k. Invalidation < 89k (deeper correction).
• Monitor news flow: Tweets or announcements from Trump regarding tariffs can cause BTC to move sharply at the end of the US trading session.
Conclusion
Cross-referencing technical analysis with current events confirms a key area of focus around 95–90k. Despite the overall uptrend in higher timeframes (12H/1D), the short-term outlook (2H/4H) remains uncertain. Low satisfaction signals suggest being cautious of a possible rebound, but a break below 89–90k would likely push BTC/USDT into a more prolonged correction. Therefore, prudent risk management is essential.
