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BTCUPUSDT trade ideas

US Tariffs Drive Bitcoin & Crypto Markets DownwardsUsually, the problem with politicians is that they do not do what they were elected for. But every so often, a politician comes along who does what he (or she) says which can cause even greater problems. In the last newsletter we wrote: 'The impact of possible Trump tariffs on the economy and trading partners such as China, Mexico and the EU is a great unknown that spooks markets. In a worst case scenario, tariffs could hurt partner exports which would result in an overall economic backlash for everyone.' An estimated $10+ billion of liquidations in crypto markets as well as a major equities selloff later, this has now played out. First things first though, lets take a step back. The first sign that not all is great in this bull market was the the DeepSeek panic on January 27th. DeepSeek, the Chinese AI company, released AI models that were trained using significantly less costly hardware than Western equivalents. Nvidia and other tech stocks led the sell-off. Cryptos, altcoins in particular, followed suit. Those AI crypto agent coins were probably not the future of AI technology after all. The real bloodbath followed on Saturday February 1st. In a sweeping announcement, US President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. President Trump also imposed an additional 10% tax on imports from China and promised incoming tariffs on EU imports. Without going to deep into any economic analysis or game-theory interpretation of this move, markets did take the news badly. With equities not trading over the weekend, it was Crypto that took the brunt of the initial hit. Ethereum dropped from $3,3000 to briefly touch $2,000. Crypto total market cap dropped by around 10%. While comparisons to the COVID crash are still far off, the blood in the streets is real. The USD notional amount of liquidations in crypto is higher than at any point, including during the FTX crash. Maybe mortgaging the house to go max-long Fartcoin was not a long-term investment strategy after all. Only one asset has weathered the storm comparatively well: Bitcoin. Whilst BTC dropped below $100k, it did not dip much lower. But the average crypto trader today, chasing the 10-100x, is heavily underexposed to Bitcoin. The sentiment, already at a low point previously, has hit Bear market despair levels. The signs though were there for weeks. Ever faster capital rotations between 'market Metas' and ever wilder memecoin launches are usually a solid indicator of overexcitement. Right now it is hard to feel much positivity. If one wished to look for it though, we still have not seen an ETH all-time-high this cycle. Solana has just barely crossed its previous ATH. A strongly pro-crypto US administration has barely had a full month in office. Trade wars, and even physical wars, eventually end. And as always, if the economy tanks in reaction to tariffs, Central Banks are more likely to flood markets with liquidity. These are not great things to have to hope for but it seems more likely than not that this episode will turn out to be a bull market flush, not the beginning of a bear market.
by Coinrule
Elliott Wave Analysis of BTC/USDTOverview This analysis focuses on the Elliott Wave count of BTC/USDT, starting from the significant low on November 21, 2022, at $15,484.34. The price movement since then has followed a structured wave pattern, with identifiable impulse waves and corrections. Wave Structure Wave (1): BTC initiated its uptrend, forming minute degree wave (1) on April 14, 2023, reaching a high of $31,019.60. Wave (2): A corrective phase followed, bringing BTC to a low of $24,899.97 on September 11, 2023. Wave (3): After completing wave (2), BTC started an impulsive move for wave (3), which culminated on March 14, 2024, at a high of $73,800. Wave (4): A time-based correction followed, marking a low of $48,974 on August 5, 2024. Wave (5): The final impulsive wave (5) then unfolded, reaching an estimated high of $109,900 on January 20, 2025. Post-Wave (5) Projection After the completion of wave (5), a corrective phase is expected. Based on the Fibonacci retracement tool, BTC is anticipated to retrace 50% to 61.8% of its entire impulse move. This suggests a retracement zone between approximately: $62,659.89 (50% retracement) $51,521.34 (61.8% retracement) BTC is expected to consolidate within this range before forming a new directional trend. If price breaks $89,414 early, it will be clear confirmation of the completion of wave (5). Conclusion The Elliott Wave count suggests that BTC has completed a five-wave structure and is now poised for a corrective phase. Traders should watch for price action around the Fibonacci retracement levels to assess potential support and future market movements. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions.
by imkhushal
The last chance to jump on BITCOIN SHORT trainWhat we see here is a 3 sell off tops in November, which turned to bearish wedge pattern, then followed by Wyckoff consolidation with 2 upthrust moves because of the gap that bitcoin left after last sell off and Swing Failure Pattern. All of this united by 5 top RSI bear divergence, week bearish divergence and CVD bear divergence Wyckoff reverse consolidation structure with two upthrusts happens, when price action breaks through major resistance with strong momentum, fills huge order blocks in one go and gets rejected after a while to fill the gaps, left by momentum and retest demand zones and support to fill orders. This is supported by Bitcoin CME futures analysis, where price action left a void at 77k, and it always tends to get back and fill it according theory and practice. Now at the moment we have a second upthrust which is the climax move of consolidation characterized by huge momentum candles, bearish patterns and manipulative moves like false breakouts/bull traps. All that is left to do is retest of 1/4 H timeframe supply, very possible liquidity sweep over equal heights and distribution phase should begin afterwards, as sudden 105k-101k crash indicates, that sellers took control. Trade it at your own risk
Short
by Brodla
4
Bitcoin BTC price analysis + FED ratesHere is a CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart on which we have marked the days on which the Fed rates announced + #Trump inauguration as a bonus) Everyone can compare for themselves how the market reacted to the US macroeconomic data. ❗️ Today at 19.00 UTC, another update of the Fed's rate - the forecast is that it will remain unchanged at 4.50%, and if so, this is a pretty good option against the backdrop of rising inflation. 🔴The worst-case scenario for the OKX:BTCUSDT price is a drop to the range of $92-94k (+ we keep in mind a possible squeeze to $ 88K, especially on futures, in order to “remove” all the longs' stops in consolidation over the past 3 months) 🟢 It will be great if BTC.D also falls with the fall of #Bitcoin (and it has room to fall) - this will allow altcoins, which are already at the bottom, not to spill too much. The next announcement of the Fed's rate is on March 19, which means that a 1.5-month window will open, during which the market will have every chance to “come to life” _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
by P_S_trade
16
BTC - Just Thinking about Volume and Price relation As my other active posts recently have been about the downward trend and BTC finding liquidity before a trend reversal and the second strong upward momentum of this market cycle. I surmised that the smart money wanted to test the bull market support moving average, 200ema on daily. ~84,500 - 82,500 . A large Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the Weekly Chart was created from the rapid price increase due to speculators and other investors FOMO'ing in on the rising assset. Large orders were left unfilled due to areas of support and resistance, trend and moving averages which are usually oscillated through during price movement while market trend leads the direction, speculators drive price increases and smart money attempts to drive price down to areas where they can profit, selling into the momentum during speculator price drives. I'm just thinking out loud here and really I only post these little updates while im interested in something and like to document it. I could be all wrong with how I am seeing this and perhaps if anyone ever does read this and can share some insight into price/volume relationships with the smart money institutional investors and whales I would be interested to heart their thoughts. However to continue , I see a discrepancy , Large Selling Volume, Negative Delta and it appears that there are some blocks where Sell volume cuts upward momentum abruptly and consistently The Chart should Show the areas that I am referring , I would be interested to hear what others think
by dasBoot
BTC 4H Reversal or More Downside?Market Analysis Summary: Key Insights and Trading Strategy Global Summary of the 4 Charts 1D/12H/4H/2H • Daily & 12H: The underlying trend ( MTFTI “Up” ) remains bullish, but signs of correction or profit-taking are emerging ( ISPD in the mid-high zone, average RSI ). • 4H & 2H: The correction is more pronounced, with low satisfaction levels ( 0.06 – 0.15 ) and RSI in the oversold zone. This suggests a possible local bottom, but the short-term momentum remains negative ( “Down” on 2H, borderline structure on 4H ). Recent Event and Market Impact A violent crash recently occurred, leading to over $2 billion in liquidations , a level comparable to major correction events like FTX or the COVID crisis . The primary cause seems to be rising macroeconomic tensions , particularly a trade war initiated by Trump with high tariffs , causing turmoil in both traditional and crypto markets . Despite this sharp drop, key technical levels remain crucial . As long as BTC does not break the critical $89,000 – $90,000 zone , a bullish recovery scenario remains possible after this extreme move. A bear trap could also form , followed by a bullish rebound if this support zone holds . Key Levels • Supports: • 2H/4H AVWAP Low: ~$92,000 – $92,600 • 1D AVWAP Low: ~$78,200 (longer term) • Critical zone: 92K – $93K, with an ultimate threshold at 89K – $90K • Resistances: • Moving Averages: 2H ~ $99.7K / 4H ~ $101K / Daily ~ $98.6K • Auto AVWAP High: 2H ~ $99.9K / Daily ~ $105K Most Relevant Timeframe for an Entry Point • Short-term (2H, 4H): More pronounced oversold conditions. For a reactive swing trade , watch for a local bottom on 2H/4H as long as 92K holds . • Positional investor (days/weeks): Wait for 4H confirmation , detecting a trend reversal (bullish crossover, rising satisfaction) above $95K – $96K . Conclusion and Recommendations 1. General Trend • On the Daily/12H , the trend ( MTFTI ) remains bullish . Short-term corrections ( 2H, 4H ) are significant, with oversold indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, RSI Boll) . • A buy-the-dip bias is preferred as long as BTC remains above 89K – $90K USDT . 2. Most Interesting Timeframe for an Entry Point • 4H appears to be the most relevant timeframe to detect a potential recovery swing. • ISPD indicator is very low (Satisfaction ~0.06) . • Mason’s line signals a possible capitulation . • 4H RSI is near the oversold zone . • A reversal signal (breakout of a local resistance or bullish crossover) is awaited before entering a position . 3. Key Levels • Major support: 92K (or 89K as the last defense line). • Secondary support: Daily LoAVWAP near $78K in case of a more violent sell-off. • Resistances: • ~$99K – $100K (short-term MAs 2H/4H & AVWAP High 2H) • $105K in Daily (HiAVWAP) 4. Strategy • Bullish scenario preferred: Monitor the 92K – $90K zone. If the price defends this area , a technical rebound on 4H/2H could target $99K, $105K, or beyond . • Bearish scenario: A clear breakdown below 89K would invalidate flat/continuation structures , leading to a deeper medium/long-term correction (potential flush toward $78K ). Practical Approach • For short-term traders: Wait for a reversal signal on 2H/4H (e.g., breakout of a local resistance or MTFTI turning “Up” ). Set a tight stop-loss below 92K or 89K depending on risk appetite . • For swing/long-term investors: The current correction can be used for DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) as long as BTC remains above 89K . The daily and weekly trends remain overall bullish . Final Thoughts • The market is indeed in a correction phase , which could be a healthy reset before a new bullish impulse . • The 92K–89K zone remains the crucial “defense line.” Below that, caution is advised . • The mid-term outlook remains bullish unless a major event occurs . Happy trading and always practice rigorous risk management!
Long
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin can exit from triangle and continue to fall nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. By observing the chart, we can see that the price started to grow inside the upward channel, where it at once rebounded from the resistance line of the channel and fell to the support line. Then BTC broke the support level and rose in a short time to the resistance line of the channel and then it started to decline. Bitcoin fell to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, thereby exiting from the channel and after it some time traded between 94250 level, it fell to 90850 points. Next, the price impulsed and continued to grow inside the upward triangle, breaking the support level again. Later it reached the even resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. Soon, BTC broke the 104700 level, rose to the resistance line, and then fell back and continued to trades between the 104700 level. Later BTC broke this level and fell below, after which turned around and quickly rose to the resistance line of the triangle and then dropped to the support line, where at the moment continues to trades close. So, in my mind, I think that Bitcoin can move up and then exit from the triangle and continue to decline to the 94250 support level. For this case, I set my TP at this level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
4
HelenP. I Bitcoin will repeat move up and then continue to fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. This chart shows how the price rose from the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, after which it dropped to the support level, breaking the 103600 level. Also then the price started to trades inside consolidation, where it some time traded near the support level and then rose to almost the resistance level. Then BTC turned around and fell back and even declined to support zone. After this movement, Bitcoin made a strong impulse up to the resistance zone, thereby exiting from consolidation and breaking the 103600 level. Next, the price reached the trend line and then started to decline near this line. Soon, the price broke this line and then broke the resistance level, after which declined below the trend line, but later backed up. After this move, BTC turned around and rebounded from the resistance zone to the support zone, finally breaking the resistance level with the trend line, but a not long time ago BTC rose higher than the trend line. Now it trades close and I expect that BTCUSDT will repeat move up and then continue to decline, and even break the support level and fall to the trend line. That's why I set my goal at 90400 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
2
Update post 500B collapse Such a night... The whole crypto cap drowing by half Trillion in less than 12H. With liquidation oreders of Billions and billions. was it predicatble ? Yes. The good news about the last analysis is that BCT has respected and taken all the zone identified. The bad part, btc has the wrost timing ever. The first hypothesis : reaching 102K-109K by satisfying the last buyer target before starting the bullrun wasn't accurate. The volume led to a drawdown of -10% in the weekend. good points : 100K --> taken in the very short time 99K --> reached in a bounce after the prev. target. This was an high liquid point according to the liquidation heatmap. 4H upward trendline broken. Following the rational behind the prev analysis (linked below), the price should have positivly responded to this new 100K level, and pump the price back to 102-109K. Strong signals of a reversal were there !!! The subsequent breakout of lowers and highs patterns, growing cup-shape (which btc is ver6y fan of, lately) and the strong bearish candlestick patterns coud suggest a wider selling trend. 97K --> inefficency zone, the hammer created on Jan 27 at 8h00 (1H tf), highlights this zone which was suddently bronken by a threre solders patetrn. This kind of patter has reveled to be an indicator for the trend perstition. 96K --> the second bearish target. Taken, high reaction (which is good strategy indicator) and strong breakout. From now on the downtrend was the trend. 92K --> third bearish target. Taken. From @96K, down by 7% in 4 hours Strong support. This big cup patten is typical of BTC in the last cycles. what's now ? Volume will push back the price to the 102-109K or continuing the bearish phase till 86K? Pattern-wise, the decline could end here, reaching maximum 89K. Price-wise, the fast growth in november, could indicate the frist pump before teh bullish rally, and so the left-behind zone such as, 78K could remain unsatisfied. Anywasys, a pull-back to the area, 84-74K would keep an uptrand on a weelky and monthly basis. We must look at the fundamentals and whales' transactions, keep an eye on the book order and liquidation heatmap could help but a volume analysis is fundamental in this period to forecast future bully or bearish rally. Things to learn from this down: 1) BTC creates cup patterns, and when it does, the moemntum is strong in both ways. 2) As we increase in price, we decrease in volatility. This is thank also to a bigger adoption than in previous cycles. 3) The real bull run of halving cycle is not started yet.
by itsmcasalinii
03/02/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $106,485.24 Last weeks low: $100,995.99 Midpoint: $95,506.74 As the US begins a tariff trade war on the world, BTC ends the previous week with a weekend selloff back into the range low of $91,000. Despite the crypto world being everchanging this range low level has held strong for nearly 3 months now. Because of this strong support level we have seen many weekly outlooks follow the pattern of an early break below weekly low, then reclaim and rally back up the range throughout the week. Could this be the case once again? Currently sentiment is terrible, probably bear market levels of depression despite Bitcoin being above $100K most of the time. I think this is largely due to the state of altcoins as they are at pre-US election lows, in some cases bear market levels... This plays havoc mentally which so much was promised in terms of alt season potential now that Bitcoin is a new highs. In reality the market will do what hurts the most, max pain. Having said that, generally a weekend dump can be misleading due to low volume and the absence of institutional buying making any manipulated move much easier to pull off from a market makers point of view. There are some nice 4H TF setups emerging, now the macro environment is definitely calling the shots in the Tradfi world but as long as the $91,000 holds the rangebound move is still in play.
by ProR35