Bitcoin Rips to $76,000 on Trump Pump. Can It Hit $100,000 Next?Bitcoin BTC/USD was fully onboard with Donald Trump’s race to the White House. With much fanfare and celebration, the orange coin crossed $76,000 to hit a new record as the former President clinched the top spot in American politics in a stunning comeback, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris.
So, what’s with that big surge and what can you expect ahead for the crypto industry under a Trump presidency? Let’s find out.
Bitcoin BTC/USD , the original cryptocurrency, is in full beast mode now that former President Donald Trump has defeated Vice President Kamala Harris to win the White House. The price of Bitcoin rocketed to the rarefied air of $76,000 on Wednesday, gaining more than 9% on the day and catapulting its valuation to a record $1.5 trillion.
Bitcoin has been a centerpiece in Donald Trump’s campaigning efforts. It’s part technology, part investment — two things Trump loves and embraces. In fact, he seems enamored with the coin and went the extra mile for it. Not only has he reiterated his support for the crypto industry, but has vowed to make the US “the Bitcoin superpower of the world” and the “crypto capital of the world.”
Big-shot crypto players, such as Andreessen Horowitz and Gemini founders the Winklevoss twins are cheering Trump’s victory after they had endorsed him and spent lavishly on his campaign and on promoting pro-crypto candidates for Congress.
“We are on the brink of a new American Renaissance,” said Tyler Winklevoss in a post on X . “The crypto army is striking!”
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase COIN , also praised Trump’s election win. “Welcome to the new members of America's most pro-crypto Congress ever…” the crypto exchange boss said on X . “219+ pro-crypto candidates and counting have now been elected to the House & Senate.” “Tonight the crypto voter has spoken decisively.”
Hopes are high now and the agenda is already looking busy. Overjoyed crypto circles expect three main things from Trump:
1) To pass crypto-friendly laws and regulations that will help propel the industry ahead of its foreign competitors (China and Russia, mostly) in terms of business, mining and trading.
2) To fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler “on day one.” Gensler is seen as a villain to the broader adoption of crypto both on Wall Street and in general. During Gensler’s tenure, the SEC has chased down crypto exchanges, such as Coinbase, Kraken and Crypto.com with more than 100 lawsuits.
3) To create a Bitcoin strategic reserve — a lofty ambition, which will make sure the US government never sells its Bitcoin (currently the US holds roughly 200,000 BTC). More on this below.
There’s already a bill introduced by Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R–Wyo.) to whip up a reserve with a target of 1 million Bitcoin over five years (200,000 BTC a year).
“For too long our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin,” Trump has said during a campaign speech.
“If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the Bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires into the future,” he said. Currently, the government every now and then auctions off its Bitcoin, which has been seized from criminals.
With that in mind, how is Trump and the Republicans broadly going to approach the next four years?
In short:
Pro-business
Pro-growth
Light regulations
Low taxes
Or, as Tesla TSLA CEO and vocal Trump backer Elon Musk expects, "The future is gonna be so 🔥"
Besides Bitcoin, how did the result of Election Day bump up other digital assets and crypto stocks?
Ethereum ETHUSD , the second-largest coin, got a 10% boost to its price, going over $2,800 a piece. Solana SOLUSD , an Ethereum rival, pumped to levels above $190 from under $170. Dogecoin DOGEUSD , the Shiba Inu-themed coin beloved by Musk, surged more than 30% in volatile trading and crossed 21 cents before paring back some of the gains to slide under the 20-cent threshold. In general, it was a good day for cryptocurrency markets .
Crypto stocks reacted with a sharp dash to higher grounds as well. Crypto exchange Coinbase COIN pumped 31% to notch its best day ever . Bitcoin-hoarding software firm MicroStrategy MSTR surged 13%, lifting its year-to-day gains to a whopping 276% increase.
Crypto miners’ stocks also participated in the rally. Riot Platforms RIOT gained 26% on the day, followed by Marathon Digital’s MARA 19% increase. Another Bitcoin miner, Core Scientific CORZ , closed up by 10% on the day.
Over to the exchange-traded fund space. The burgeoning crypto ETF space turned up some impressive figures. The pack of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively pulled in $612 million of net new money on Wednesday. The spot Bitcoin investment vehicles now command $26 billion in assets under management.
Ethereum ETFs, a bundle of 9 , picked up $52 million of daily net inflows, bringing the total amount of investments to $1.35 billion.
With that said, were you brave enough to chip in before the big Election Day? And do you think the door to $100,000 is now wide open? Drop your thoughts below and let’s whip up the discussion!
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bitcoin To The Moon! $100K 100X —Michael Saylor— LONG (B-Trap)It is a bull-trap. I am going to exposed the whole thing. Do you really think the market is going to move without us?
It is the exact same dynamic that happened last week:
1) Bitcoin closed weekly below resistance in the form of 70K. Bitcoin moves strongly above this level but reverses below 74K and does six consecutive days closing red liquidating millions of traders and reversing all gains; this takes us to number #2.
2) Bitcoin started the week by moving strongly above resistance, a new All-Time High, FOMO, 100K, but Bitcoin still trades below 80K. The week is still young and prices will soon start to reverse, the same as last week. Move above resistance briefly just to move back down the same week; bull-trap. The bulls get trapped when prices start to drop.
Patience is key.
It is a bull-trap, there is no 100K; not yet.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
SHORT POSITION— “A minor correction to $71,645 or higher!”Bitcoin has entered full manipulation mode. The waves are accelerating, and as I warned yesterday, the slow bleed has begun.
There’s a top red trendline that connects the wicks and the upper body of a key candle, signaling correction territory. Below that, there’s a green line in the same format, pointing toward a bull run. This top red trendline agree perfectly with my sharp shark fins—a strong signal that correction time is here.
This is for short-term traders. Long-term holders, you’re safe; Bitcoin isn’t crashing, just correcting. I’ve marked red arrows pointing to my shark fins for clarity. The Ichimoku is hovering around the dip’s end, though I’m not claiming that’s exactly where price will settle. Right now, I’m using GANN and ATR. I’ve added Ichimoku as additional guidance. After comparing with my smart money whales and dark pools, here’s what’s happening: The bait has started, and new retail investors are being lured in by none other than Grandpa Tom.
The price will dip to one of these levels. When the correction wraps up, I’ll be looking for Bitcoin to rise above my contraction line to confirm a re-entry.
I didn’t connect the double-bottom zig-zag to the wicks, so you can clearly see the double is filled. While many signals point to correction, that’s not my primary focus but my smart money movements.
This is the result when Grandpa Tom, the shepherd of the herd, stirs up excitement, telling everyone Bitcoin’s headed to $100k right now. My advice? Don’t follow Grandpa Tom’s hype. He tends to jump in at pivot highs. I even told Grandpa Tom to stop spreading his pivot-high advice, but he brushed me off, saying I didn’t know what I was talking about and I needed to “research more.”
Bitcoin Double-Top: A Repeat Of 2021?Back in 2021, Bitcoin hit a major high in April. 210 days later a slight higher high, and a technical double-top, was hit in November.
The first high toward April 2021 was preceded by rising volume.
The second high toward November 2021 was preceded by decreasing volume.
In 2024, the first high reaching March was preceded by rising volume.
The second high toward October 2024 was preceded by decreasing volume.
➢ The November 2021 higher high/double-top ended in a major crash (the decreasing volume was a strong revealing signal).
➢ The October 2024 lower/higher high/double-top has very low volume and also very, very low market participation, only whales are playing right now (no retail).
Will the second high of 2024 lead to a major crash?
This is a high probability scenario.
Bearish at resistance.
Bullish at support.
Q: What is the difference between December/November 2022 and October/November 2024?
A: The price... One was a bottom and the latter is a top.
Patience is key.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
Smart Money Master Pattern with ATR-Gann-Algo PatternAll price levels are displayed on the chart, with four Gann targets precisely aligning with the ATR-defined stop, entry, and profit levels. This analysis operates on a 1-day ATR compressed into a 4-hour timeframe for more granular detail. The algorithmic plotter has confirmed two entry signals. Notably, the yellow entry zone and the short-term "D" level have crossed above the MID "K" level. When Short D crosses above MID K, it signals a potential upward movement (buy signal); conversely, when it drops below MID K, it suggests a downward trend (sell signal).
Additionally, two red horizontal "True Value" smart money lines are displayed as trap zones, where institutional activity often anchors price action. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating around the True Value line, signaling possible positioning by smart money. Watch for the red circles; these indicate points of volatility contraction, often leading to breakout moves. Two white contraction lines provide a structured trend channel, guiding price action within boundaries typically respected by institutional players.
The green and red blocks denote smart money contraction zones, revealing recurring patterns. I’ve included three key contraction points, represented by skull icons, which mark significant price compressions. These include two red horizontal True Value lines that signify potential trap zones. Red arrows highlight these True Value lines, providing clear visual markers for strategic positioning.
The three ATR levels represent precise price ranges for stop, entry, and profit targets. As this idea developed, the position has shifted from a long setup. This is a dynamic, auto-adjusting ATR, calibrated to move in sync with price action, adapting seamlessly as the market progresses.
The long position includes designated stop, entry, and profit levels, but the ATR-based stop, entry, and profit targets differ, reflecting shifts in price action. Since the ATR is dynamically calculated, it has adjusted away from the initial long position, continuously realigning with market movement.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: History in the MakingWe’re looking at a hidden divergence here, but what does it mean-bearish or bullish? Let’s analyze. In this case, we see the candlestick pattern showing a low followed by a higher low, while the RSI shows a low followed by an even lower low. This setup indicates strength beneath the surface, pointing to a hidden bullish divergence. Essentially, while price action suggests a slight downtrend, the RSI reveals underlying buying pressure, hinting at a potential bullish move ahead.
“There are two volatility contractions, each nearly aligned with two dark pool signals, forming a similar pattern.”
BTC Mind Opening Questions, Soul Search, Before 2025 Bull-MarketBitcoin is setting itself up for something incredible... Let's analyze the two weeks with the highest volatility in 2024.
➖ In 29-July week, Bitcoin reached at a peak of 69,985 and a low of 57,176. That's a swing of more than 12,000$ in a single week.
➖ In 5-Aug. week, Bitcoin peaked at 62,700 and bottomed at 49,111. That's a huge 13,589$ swing in a single week.
How would similar action look like today?
What if Bitcoin has two more weeks of bearish action before going green?
What if Bitcoin has four (4) more weeks of bearish action before the correction is done?
How wild can the price swings become?
What was your mental state and your market bias during the early August crash?
Where you prepared for this event?
Looking back, would you have done anything differently if you knew before-hand that prices were moving lower?
If you knew before-hand that Bitcoin was moving below 50K, when it was trading at say, 70K, would you act or react differently to how you acted or reacted in the past?
How would you act now if you knew that Bitcoin was set to drop by 10,000 or 15,000 in a matter or days? And this just to continue lower.
Would you be ready to buy at support?
Would you be ready to sell now?
Would you panic sell at the low based on the market impulse?
What's your main strategy?
Why did you join this market?
What was your mindset when you bought Bitcoin?
How long are you ready to wait?
Are you ready to hold through a panic?
If you don't sell now, you cannot sell when prices are low.
Sell high and buy low.
We sell at resistance and buy at support.
We sell green and buy when the market is red.
Are you ready to go against the market, the mass, the herd?
Are you aware that it doesn't matter what happens Bitcoin will recover and grow?
Any and all corrections are only part of a short-term development, long-term we will experience continued growth.
Crypto (Bitcoin) is a new, young and evolving market, this is only the beginning... What was it like 10 years ago?
How do you see yourself 10 years into the future?
How do you see yourself in 2034? For example.
At what price will Bitcoin trade in 2034 and how will the world look like?
How were you doing financially back in 2014 and how are you doing today?
If you knew back then what you know now, what would you have done differently?
Bitcoin is going up long-term.
Bitcoins is going to crash short-term.
What are you going to do about it?
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
BITCOIN fully supported targeting $170k after the ATH breaks.Exactly 3 months ago (August 05, see chart below) when the price was on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), having hit it for the first time since the week of March 12 2003, we claimed that this was the last stand for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) if the market wanted to maintain the Bull Cycle, as based on the previous 3 Cycles, it was the absolute supporting trend-line:
The 1W MA50 eventually held not once but twice and that gave way to a rally that last week tested the 73800 All Time High (ATH). That is incredibly bullish, especially only two days before the U.S. elections, as from the historic patterns we've shown you before, a Parabolic Rally has started after each election.
So according to our August comparison chart, if history is repeated, BTC is looking towards at least the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the ATH, which is roughly a little over $170k.
But what do you think? Are you expecting the ATH test to start a massive rally similar to all previous Cycles? And if so, is $170000 a realistic Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BRUSHTRAD: Secrets of ART TRADING! (Pullback) Unlock the hidden layers where trading meets creativity. Dive into the brushstrokes of the market, where every trade is crafted like art!
ForexX_ATR-Bollinger-Shark-Finning: Master the Market Waves
The codes fuse ATR and Bollinger Bands to highlight key market moves. With adjustable bands and dynamic zones, it visually marks prime entry and exit points. The real power lies in its alerts—keeping you one step ahead as prices shift. Fine-tuned for sharp pullbacks and potential reversals, this setup becomes your edge, guiding us through the market with precision. Watch those zones closely—they reveal more than meets the eye.
2 BULLISH FULL MOONSHere we have the 2 bullish full moons on a 23HR TF. They have massive power. Here is the evidence.
Three LOWER-LOWS mean we will have a BULL RUN soon accompanied by BULLISH FULL MOONS with 1 and 2 weekly timeframes pullback signals.
BTCUSD- Watch out for plane crashes! (Final warning)We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 51870
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Market Reactions in Last 3 U.S. Elections and BTC Target $95k!Let's look at how the market reacted in the last 3 elections!
- 2012: Obama re-elected ➡️ Initial stock sell-off over fiscal cliff fears, then strong rally post-deal. Crypto is mostly unaffected.
- 2016: Trump wins ➡️ Stock rally on tax cut & deregulation optimism. Bitcoin starts climbing, hinting as a "digital gold."
- 2020: Biden wins amidst pandemic ➡️ Stocks surge on stimulus hopes. Crypto enters a major bull run, with BTC skyrocketing as an inflation hedge.
🗝️ Elections = market volatility & opportunity!
Regardless of who wins, CRYPTOCAP:BTC will likely reach a new ATH by the end of 2024.
Altcoins will likely follow later. IMHO, alts are already heavily discounted. Even if BTC dominance rises and alts take another dip, it’s wiser to DCA into the weaker ones instead of selling near their high-timeframe lows.
Think twice before hitting that sell button. The next 6-8 months could be legendary. It won’t be easy, but the rewards will be worth it.
#BITCOIN UPDATE:-
BTC looks solid for now. There’s still a possibility for BTC to hit the $60K level if Kamala wins; it’s not certain, but it’s a topic circulating in the crypto space. This could act as a short-term downside catalyst, with bulls likely stepping in quickly, leaving a long wick below the resistance turned support.
A retest is underway on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts! I’m anticipating BTC to reach between GETTEX:82K and $95K by the end of the year.
DYOR, NFA.
Do hit the like button and share your views in the comment section!
Thank you
#PEACE
Bitcoin Awaits Bullish Confirmation: Defining The LevelsWe are waiting for confirmation based on the weekly timeframe. Let's define our levels.
Once Bitcoin closes weekly above $75,000, we are in the bullish zone and the bullish bias is confirmed. Once resistance levels all turn support. On a retrace, the following support levels will be the main levels to either maintain or negate a bullish bias:
1) $74,000 —March 2024 high.
2) $70,000 —Psychological level and 29-July High.
3) The $64,000 — $69,000 price range. 2021 All-Time High prices & MA200 daily.
This will be our main levels once a bullish confirmation is in.
➖ If Bitcoin ends up reversing and moves back below resistance like last week and the bull-trap is confirmed, we look for lower lows.
➖ If Bitcoin closes above resistance and former resistance turns support, we look for these levels as support to maintain a bullish bias.
We will make a clean transition.
Makes sense?
This is technical analysis made easy.
Thank you for reading.
Your support is truly appreciated.
Namaste.
Bitcoin Stays True to “Uptober” with 11% Pop. What Happens Next?Bitcoin BTC/USD saw elevated demand in October as the surge nearly led to a new all-time high. Now the looming US election on November 5 is shaping up as a catalyst for growth, depending on who gets to become President of the United States.
Bullishness is in the air. The OG token — Bitcoin BTC/USD — pumped hard in yet another October. Staying true to the “Uptober” tradition , BTC added 11% over the month, kicking it all the way up to more than $73,000 , just a few hundred bucks shy of its record high logged in March .
The powerful surge is now taking a breather with prices diving back under the $70,000 threshold. But not for long, according to some analysts who are already living post November 5. What’s that? It’s the biggest event of the year — economically, politically, and … cryptolitically ?
Gloves on, bell rings, the main event is here — in the blue corner is Democrat Kamala Harris facing her red-shorts opponent, Republican Donald Trump. The current Vice President and the former President are squaring up for the top spot in American politics. And both have vastly differing viewpoints on crypto.
If we were to play favorites, it’s fair to say that Donald Trump is winning the hearts of the crypto faithful. Throughout his rallying and campaigning, he’s made it clear that he believes in Bitcoin’s growth potential. What’s more, he’s embraced digital assets in general and wants to see the market thrive in the world’s biggest economy.
The promises don’t stop there. Trump has vowed to make the US the “crypto capital of the world” and dig out all the remaining Bitcoins from within US grounds. He also pledged to set up a Bitcoin strategic reserve and fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who is seen as a roadblock to future crypto growth.
Hence the so-called “Trump trade,” which has been propelling the orange coin to higher places.
On the other end of the spectrum is Kamala Harris who has adopted a warm, but not that warm stance toward crypto. She’s all about casting a sweeping regulatory framework over the industry. The Democratic candidate has vowed to “encourage innovative technologies” like digital assets. Still better than President Joe Biden’s crackdown on the sector.
More interestingly, Trump has recruited a key player on his team. Elon Musk, the world’s richest guy (depending on the day) and CEO of Tesla TSLA , is a major donor to Trump’s campaign. He is looking to potentially get employed by the government as head of — can you guess? — Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE (a nod to Musk’s beloved coin).
"I will create a government efficiency commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government," Trump said at a rally back in September.
“I look forward to serving America if the opportunity arises. No pay, no title, no recognition is needed,” the eccentric billionaire wrote on his X platform .
How is that bullishness trickling into the markets? Besides the obvious price leap, options traders are ramping up their bets for $80,000 Bitcoin by the end of November. Implied volatility on November 5 is elevated — BTC options flag a 30% chance of a 10% swing in the price. Stay cool, stay ready.
On the ETFs front, exchange-traded funds that hold genuine Bitcoin and offer spot trading pulled in around $4 billion of net new money in October. The biggest winner of all 11 spot BTC ETFs is the BlackRock-owned iShares Bitcoin Trust, which holds more than $26 billion in assets.
Traders broadly (not just the crypto space) may be pricing in a Trump victory and scooping up some of the assets that are likely to do well under his term. But while Trump is ahead in prediction markets, he’s neck-and-neck with Harris in the national polls, making Election Day all the more uncertain.
With that said, Bitcoin is up 57% on the year, outperforming other large-cap assets, such as gold XAU/USD , up 35% in a stellar year of its own , and the S&P 500 SPX , up 20% year to date, also enjoying lots of buying appetite .
Whose side are you on and do you think we'll see a huge swing in the price of Bitcoin come November 5? Share your thoughts below!
What reaction does the market have to the elections?The price managed to break the wedge in the one-hour time frame, and this is very good. The price can rise again to 71k dollars or even more with a little correction. Now we have to wait for the results of the US elections, which have a significant impact on this market.
In the current scenario, with the US elections being so close, there's a lot of uncertainty, which can lead to increased market volatility. Investors are closely watching the candidates' stances on key issues like trade policies, taxes, and regulation, as these will have significant implications for various sectors.
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin: Double Top Or Buying Op?Bitcoin missed all time high by 200 points. Are you long from the RISKIEST price location since March? If you observe this price action from a larger time frame (weekly), you should recognize the failed high which is a variation of the classic double top formation. If you got long betting on the break out (on this time frame) and a red candle develops the next day or so (see arrow), that is usually a good reason to exit in order to avoid the 6K to 8K associated risk. Rather than getting stuck in a painful position, it is far more effective to gauge the probability and RISK in advance and adjust to it. Let me explain.
There is no question, Bitcoin is generally strong, but that does NOT guarantee a break out will follow through. Betting on break outs is a viable strategy, you just have to know how to manage the position if it fails. The main idea here is you MUST accept the fact that there is NO WAY To know if the break will fail or succeed in advance. All you can do is ask: if it fails, how much risk am I taking? And your answer will depend on the time frame you are operating within. The larger the time frame, the greater the risk. In the case of the daily chart, the next support is the 68K to 66K area (old resistance/ new support).
Also when taking such a trade, you should be acting on specific entry criteria (some kind of pattern) that provides some level of objectivity to your decision making process. IF you got long as a reaction to a price spike. or worse, as a result of consuming mainstream news, you will find out the hard way that acting on low quality information makes you a profit opportunity for someone else. For optimal results (and to profit from those who react to noise) you MUST have a clear decision making process that defines profit objectives/risk the same way for EVERY trade or investment you make (Trade Scanner Pro).
So what about buying this pullback? That is sensible BUT I have yet to see a buy signal. The location is attractive (see illustration), but without a signal there is no way to measure risk. The other important point is to have a realistic profit objective in terms of PROBABILITY OF PROFIT. While a "higher high" is likely in a bullish trend (74K+?), you have a greater chance of exiting green at a lower price (test of 71.5K). This decision depends on your degree of confidence and willingness to embrace risk. While price is favored to make the higher high, there is NO guarantee. Accept the fact that there is NO WAY to know for sure. You place a bet and hope it works out. And if not, you have a plan in place to control the risk. That is the trader mentality in a nutshell.
If you look at my previous articles, my forecasts (illustrations) have been wrong. I have been anticipating a retrace to a support, but Bitcoin does not agree. It is important for you to understand that at highs I will usually look for a pullback and at lows I will look for a bounce. While this does not work 100% of the time, it has helped me effectively navigate this range bound market that Bitcoin has been gyrating within since March and has yet to break out of.
Unlike many "gurus" I do not pretend to be able to forecast the future, I simply play the probabilities, just like going all in on pocket aces before the flop. It doesn't ALWAYS work, but probability favors a positive outcome because that is the strongest hand you can start with.
The more time you factor into an idea, the less of a chance you have of being accurate. This is because markets are HIGHLY random. Price has retraced off the high and that is ideal for a swing trade long (which can be good for a few days/week). Its just a matter of confirmation at this point. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COPY—Since 8/22/24–“BITCOIN MEASUREMENT HIGHLIGHTS!” ($79k)A correction is near! View my red circle and the pattern—$79k but can be sooner! Today is 11/6/24 4:08 Pm pacific time and you have been warned since 11/5/24. This only applies to short term investors.
Since Bitcoin has reached an all-time high (ATH), it currently lacks a clear price structure or established resistance levels, making it harder to predict. Right now, it’s going through phases of “contraction” – periods of small, limited price movement. These contractions can be deceptive, often set up to lure in retail investors by creating the illusion of stability or a predictable trend. Once enough investors are drawn in, a larger move (either up or down) may follow, catching those investors off guard.
Bitcoin is approaching a potential contraction bleed; while the exact timing is uncertain, the DARK POOL signals are showing clear signs.
“Bitcoin operates on a halving cycle, a pattern where the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half roughly every four years. This halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is introduced, making it scarcer over time. Historically, each halving has triggered significant price increases within the following months, as reduced supply meets steady or rising demand.”
Right now, Bitcoin seems to be following this pattern again. Many expect that as we approach the next halving, we could see increased price activity as scarcity rises. However, while the pattern has held in the past, it’s important to remember that markets can be unpredictable.”
Contraction Debugger— A contraction debugger helps spot patterns in market behavior that indicate periods of “quiet” or lower activity. It’s useful for getting a sense of potential changes in momentum without revealing too much about what those changes might mean. By tracking these quieter periods, the tool provides insights into times when the market may be preparing for its next phase.
My contraction direction points upward
Keep revisiting this idea for the latest updates, as I’m unable to send automatic email alerts to followers.
BTC - Make Cryptos Great Again!!! - 20/20 Hindsight VisionOften traders try to rationalize market moves, over think variables, and do NOT listen to money flow. Two weeks ago I posted a trade for Bitcoin, sure it was at a high, but the money was flowing into Bitcoin for whatever reason. We did NOT try to rationalize this, we did NOT know why it was wanting to break out, however, we put our feelings and thoughts aside and took the trade.
Another thing we noticed, as I posted on Twitter, that bond yields were rallying?
Fed cut 50bps on Sept 18th but this was already priced in obviously because it was right at the low of yields. However suddenly it slowly started to rally and then gained steam? Why was this? What did the market know?
Look at the IWM which is mostly US small cap companies.
Surely there were some moves that correlated with political events, but looking back it appears the money was positioning for a Trump Presidency. Like him or hate him, money was on Trump.
Now that is hindsight and of course hindsight is 20/20 so why the lecture? My point is often we try to rationalize current moves, and if you are thinking, ohhh I'm going to go Long T-Bills because the FED is lowering rates, you are probably already late to the game. Big money is way ahead of all of us!!!
So though many were like "you are buying a high, why take a trade at a double top?" and scared to take a trade here, we looked at the money flow. We had no idea the money was positioning for a Trump win, but after the fact it is obvious.
With that said, follow the money not your instincts, not the news and definitely not your feelings. You will be wrong more often than not.
Anyways BULLLLLLLLL on crytpos and looking for pullbacks or setups to go long or add to my current positions!!!!!
BiTCOiN: $76,000 | Building a SHORT POSiTiONthe sudden moves with TRUMP and FOMC reminds me of
Allan Greenspans exhuberance and Soros Reflexivity paper
FUTURES market pushing it
Saylor keeps peddling it
Presidential Elections impact on Dollar and BitcoinThe U.S. dollar is key in global finance. It's used in trade and as a reserve currency. Presidential elections can greatly affect the dollar's strength.
Changes in leadership and policy expectations lead to currency swings. These swings show how markets view future economic stability and policies.
Historical Trends: Presidential Elections and Dollar Volatility
Presidential elections bring uncertainty to markets. Investors try to guess how the election will affect policy and interest rates. This uncertainty makes the dollar more volatile.
Here is how the DXY moved after the last 4 elections
Price action suggests that we could go higher short-term, then down. However, Im not trying to predict anything now. I would rather wait and then do my classic trading setups as usual.
Volatility can happen before and after an election. It depends on the clear result and policies the new administration will follow.
Election Cycles and Currency Movements: The dollar is more volatile during election years. But, this effect varies based on market expectations of each candidate's policies.
Historical Examples: In 2016, Donald Trump's win made the dollar rise at first. This was because of his pro-business policies. But, the 2008 election led to uncertainty and a weaker dollar.
Factors That Influence the Dollar During Elections
Several things affect the dollar during elections. These include:
Economic Policy Outlook: Markets watch candidates' economic plans. Policies that boost growth, like tax cuts, help the dollar.
Trade and Foreign Relations: Candidates' views on trade and foreign relations matter a lot. Protectionist policies might strengthen the dollar but could harm growth in the long run.
Federal Reserve Influence: The president's Fed picks shape monetary policy. Markets react to changes in policy, like interest rate shifts, which affect the dollar's value.
Market Reactions and Investor Behavior
Before an election, investors often wait to see what happens. This makes the dollar move as they adjust their investments. After the election, the dollar's value changes based on the new policies.
Currency as a Safe Haven: The dollar is often seen as safe during uncertain times. Even with U.S. risks, investors might choose the dollar for its stability.
Impact of Policy Announcements: The dollar's immediate reaction depends on the winning candidate's policy plans. Big spending plans can lead to inflation, weakening the dollar over time.
If we check COT data we can see that Non-comercials as well as commercials are both around 50/50 hedged.
Empirical Data and Case Studies
Studies show different effects of elections on the dollar, based on the economy:
2016 Presidential Election: The dollar rose after Trump's win due to his economic plans. These plans were seen as good for growth, leading to a positive dollar reaction.
2020 Presidential Election: After Biden's win, the dollar fell. This was because of expected big spending and low interest rates, which could cause inflation.
2024 Presidential Election: From a technical perspective, COT and seasonal tendencies. I think we could see push up but then the dollar is set for the deep dive.
While Bitcoin has only been around since 2009, it has already experienced several U.S. elections with discernible impacts:
2016 Presidential Election: The lead-up to and aftermath of the 2016 election, which saw Donald Trump take office, coincided with an increase in Bitcoin's price. The market anticipated regulatory easing and lower corporate taxes, creating a favourable environment for risk assets. Additionally, there was heightened uncertainty in global markets, leading some investors to consider Bitcoin as a hedge.
2020 Presidential Election: The 2020 election was accompanied by heightened political tension and economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After Joe Biden’s victory, Bitcoin surged, with many investors perceiving the incoming administration’s stimulus policies as likely to increase inflation risks. This led to a major inflow of institutional investment into Bitcoin, pushing it toward new all-time highs.
This can also be positive for the Bitcoin. Overall I think the impact will be just short term, whoever wins we will see a rally as the global liquidity is rising and it's the main driver for the bitcoin
Long-term Implications
The long-term dollar impact of elections depends on policy changes. Initial reactions can be strong, but lasting effects are rare. They happen only if new policies significantly change the economy or global trade.
Conclusion
The U.S. presidential election has a big impact on the dollar. This is due to market feelings, policy hopes, and the economy's state. Even though short-term ups and downs are usual, the dollar's long-term fate hinges on the new administration's actions and the economy's performance.
Knowing how these factors work helps investors and policymakers. They can better prepare for and adjust to changes in currency markets during election times.
Thanks for reading
Dave FX Hunter
“DARK POOLS VOLUME MYSTERY!” (Must Read)In my latest idea, Short Position, I mentioned a target around $71,645, maybe higher. We’ll need to wait and see where the price ultimately lands on one of my carefully plotted Gann levels.
Now, in this idea, my “Whales Master Pattern” contraction line pinpoints the true value at $71,234—eerily close to my ATR value calculated in pips, which nearly matched my Gann level.
Let’s be clear: my most trusted indicator is none other than the Forex Master Pattern, with the smart money true value line and contraction. It’s my #1 analysis tool, designed by smart money itself. I kept my short position using Gann levels, paired with my ATR-calculated pips, and both aligned almost perfectly with my Gann prices. That’s why the short position remains.
Here, we’ve got my previous and recent manipulated volumes, highlighting the movement of money flow. Next up, those lime-green candlesticks—they’re coded to the standards of the whales themselves. Dark pools are woven right into those lime candles. The green columns represent hidden dark pool buys, pushing the price up, while the purple columns signal dark pool sells—the hidden money flow in the phantom underworld. Notice the pattern: green columns lead to purple columns. The price corrected to the Forex Master Pattern’s true value line, then surged to a new ATH.
See for yourself what’s unfolding. If I ever doubt, I turn first to ATR—it’s my trusted source for reading prices calculated in pips. Next would be Gann, but I never use it alone because Gann can be misleading. When my Gann lines align with ATR and smart money levels, then it’s golden treasure.
Now, why a new short position idea? Well, because Grandpa Tom (the self-proclaimed shepherd of the herd) declared I was “full of hot air” and scoffed at the idea of manipulation. He told me, “Look at the money flow! It doesn’t lie.”
So, I explained dark pools and whale manipulation. And Grandpa Tom, in all his wisdom, says, “Whale? That’s a big fish, isn’t it? And the only pool I know is my cousin Harry’s swimming pool. What’s all this got to do with money flow?”
Then Grandpa Tom stormed off, raving about how I should be “locked up in a mental institution.” Ah, the insights of our dear, air-headed Grandpa Tom!
“Manipulation is almost ending— correction is next!”Spoofing, dark pools, and whales bait.
Selling is clear, I won’t go back on my word. This is a BULL TRAP but there will be no crash.
ForexX indicator— stochastic reads almost overbought. RSI reads sell and my MA remains bullish.
RSI—green
Stochastic—red
Dark pools has baited many investors with whales manipulation!
Dark pools—purple columns
Whale—green lime candlesticks
“I was perfectly clear when I warned you about
Grandpa Tom!”
