Bitcoin: open path to downside?The FOMC meeting and the decision on interest rates, geopolitical tensions and inflation fears are currently the most important topics for investors on financial markets. The crypto market was sort of left behind during the previous week, with some funds outflows as of the end of the week. Current chart looks like seeking the downside, however, the question is whether it is just a short term correction or the market is indeed setting the stage for the higher move toward the downside?
At the beginning of the previous week, BTC tried for one more time to make a push toward the higher grounds, and tested the $108K level. Since there was no strength to sustain this level, the BTC spent the rest of the week looking at the downside. The lowest weekly level was reached on Friday, at $102,6K, but BTC recovered a bit on Saturday till levels modestly above the $103K. The RSI continues to move below the level of 50, indicating that investors are still eyeing the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the cross might come soon.
As previously noted, charts are pointing to the probability of a higher move toward the downside for BTC. Lows from the beginning of June might be the first target in this scenario. This would lead BTC toward the price range between the $100K - $101K. There is also some probability for the move toward the opposite side, where BTC will again test the $105K resistance. At this point charts are not pointing to probability for reaching levels higher from the $105K.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
You've Already Lost: The Bitcoin Delusion of FOMO and False HopeLetโs get one thing straight: if youโre staring at Bitcoin, squinting past the red flags, and convincing yourself itโs not a Ponzi scheme because of that one shiny feature that screams โlegit,โ youโre not investingโyouโre auditioning for the role of โnext victim.โ And if your motivation is the fear of missing out (FOMO) or the fantasy of getting rich quick, well... congratulations. Youโve already lost.
The 99%: Red Flags Waving Like Itโs a Parade
Letโs talk about the indicatorsโthe ones that make Bitcoin look suspiciously like a Ponzi scheme. No, itโs not technically one, but the resemblance is uncanny:
- No intrinsic value: Bitcoin isnโt backed by assets, cash flow, or a government. Itโs worth what the next person is willing to pay. Thatโs not investing. Thatโs speculative hot potato.
- Early adopters profit from new entrants: The people who got in early? Theyโre cashing out while newcomers buy in at inflated prices. Thatโs the classic Ponzi dynamic: old money out, new money in.
- Hype over utility: Bitcoinโs actual use as a currency is minimal. Itโs slow, expensive to transact, and volatile. But hey, who needs functionality when youโve got memes and moon emojis?
- Opaque influencers: From anonymous creators (hello, Satoshi) to crypto bros promising Lambos, the ecosystem thrives on charisma, not accountability.
- Scam magnet: Bitcoin has been the currency of choice for over 1,700 Ponzi schemes and scams, according to a University of New Mexico study cs.unm.edu . Thatโs not a coincidence. Thatโs a pattern.
The 1%: The โBut Itโs Decentralized!โ Defense
Ah yes, the one redeeming quality that Bitcoin evangelists cling to like a life raft: decentralization. No central authority! No government control! Itโs the financial revolution!
Exceptโฆ decentralization doesnโt magically make something a good investment. It just means no oneโs in charge when things go wrong. And when the market crashes (again), you canโt call customer service. You can tweet into the void, though.
FOMO: The Real Engine Behind the Madness
Letโs be honest. Most people arenโt buying Bitcoin because they believe in the tech. Theyโre buying because they saw someone on TikTok turn $500 into a Tesla. FOMO is the fuel, and social media is the match.
Bitcoinโs meteoric rises are often driven by hype cycles, not fundamentals. Tesla buys in? Price spikes. El Salvador adopts it? Price spikes. Your cousinโs dog walker says itโs going to $1 million? Price spikes. Then it crashes. Rinse, repeat.
This isnโt investing. Itโs gambling with a tech-savvy twist.
The Punchline: Youโve Already Lost
If youโre ignoring the overwhelming signs of speculative mania and clinging to the one feature that makes you feel better about your decision, youโre not ahead of the curveโyouโre the mark. And if your motivation is โI donโt want to miss out,โ you already have. Youโve missed out on rational thinking, due diligence, and the ability to distinguish between innovation and illusion.
Bitcoin might not be a Ponzi scheme in the legal sense. But if it walks like one, talks like one, and makes early adopters rich at the expense of latecomersโฆ maybe itโs time to stop pretending itโs something else.
INDEX:BTCUSD NYSE:CRCL NASDAQ:HOOD TVC:DXY NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:SILVER TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:MARA
BITCOIN This is the long-term picture. Don't get distracted.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating lately after making a new All Time High (ATH) last month and this is already making part of the market nervous over whether that's the Cycle Top or not.
This is one of those times when it would be best to ignore the short-term noise/ volatility and stick to the long-term picture. And that's exactly what's shown on this chart, with BTC on the 1M time-frame showing the incredible symmetry among its 4-year Cycles, with Bear Markets lasting 12 - 13 months and Bull Markets 35.
Based on that, this Cycle's Top is expected to be priced by October (2025). This also matches the Sine Waves as implied by the 1M RSI, which as been trading within a Channel Down (diminishing returns) since Bitcoin's inception.
So do you also think that we have around 4 months before the market tops? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN: The $110K Crossroads - Bull vs Bear Battleground! The Setup: "The Healthy Pullback Hypothesis
๐ต BLUE SUPPORT TRENDLINE (Rising from ~$76K)
The Foundation: This ascending support has held multiple tests
Current Status: Price dancing right on this crucial line
Psychology: Bulls' last stand
๐ด RED RESISTANCE CHANNEL (Descending from $112K peak)
The Ceiling: Two parallel resistance lines creating downward pressure
Pattern: Classic bearish channel formation
Volume Profile: Declining volume suggests exhaustion
๐ก YELLOW HORIZONTAL ZONES
Key Level 1: ~$98K (Previous resistance turned support)
Key Level 2: ~$112K (The rejection zone)
๐ข BULLISH SCENARIO (65% Probability)
Setup: Breakout above red channel resistance (~$108K)
๐ Rocket Ship: Explosive move to $120K+
๐ Reality Check: Deeper correction to $95K-98K range
Entry: $97K - 98K (confirmed breakout)
Target 1: $104K
Target 2: $110K
Stop Loss: $95K
____________________________
โ ๏ธ Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes. Always manage risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent! โ ๏ธ
BTCUSD Sell Setup โ 4H Chart AnalysisEntry Zone: 103,061
๐น Stop Loss: 105,120 โ 105,095
๐ฏ Targets:
โข TP1: 100,913
โข TP2: 98,886
โข TP3: 96,967
๐ป Analysis Summary:
Price recently broke a key support zone and is currently retesting it. A clean bearish rejection from this level provides a high-probability short setup. With clear risk-to-reward levels defined, this trade targets the next key supports.
๐ Risk Management: Always use stop loss and proper lot sizing.
Bitcoin may rebound from support line of wedge and start to growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Initially, the price was trading inside a well-defined range, moving sideways with repeated rejections from both support and resistance. After several attempts to stay above the support zone, BTC finally broke down and sharply declined below the 104000 level, entering the buyer zone. However, the decline was short-lived. Price quickly rebounded from the lower boundary and formed a strong bullish candle, suggesting that buyers were still active. After this recovery, BTC began forming a wedge pattern, with a gradually narrowing structure between the resistance line and the ascending support line. This kind of price action typically signals a buildup of pressure and potential breakout. Currently, BTC is once again testing the support line of the wedge and hovering near the buyer zone, where it previously reversed. This level has proven significant and is now being retested. Given the current structure, the wedge formation, and price behavior near the support, I expect BTC to rebound from this zone and start climbing back toward the upper resistance area. My current TP 1 is set at 106800 points, which aligns with the mid-level of the previous impulse zone and the inner resistance of the wedge. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost ๐
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarketsโ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Middle East Tension: Read This Before You Trade todayโ๏ธ๐๏ธ๐ฃ Middle East Tension: Read This Before Markets close for the Weekend ๐๐ฅโ๏ธ
Video:
Hey traders,
Todayโs landscape is delicate and raw: we stand between a possible US strike on Iran and a chance for leaders to step back from the edge. Many are asking: Should I bet on gold? Should I short the indices? Should I buy oil?
Hereโs my honest read, straight from todayโs video (which I highly recommend you watch for full context ๐บ):
๐ Bitcoin (BTC)
Still ranging sideways. The last move hit my resistance zone perfectly. For now, BTC keeps its cool โ but watch out: global fear can spark sudden moves, or the opposite, a liquidity crunch.
๐ Gold & Silver
Yes, theyโre classic safe havens โ but donโt fall for the textbook trap. When true chaos strikes, big players often sell profitable gold positions to cover losses elsewhere. So an initial spike is possible, but deep pockets can reverse it fast. This is why Iโm cautious: I do not expect a guaranteed pump on gold or silver.
๐ Crude Oil (WTI)
The chart says it all: any strike in the Middle East fuels oil prices fast. But as Iโve always said โ I do not long oil during human tragedy. Ethics over easy pips.
๐ Indices & USDJPY
Gaps are likely. Risk assets may get hammered if bombs fall. If leaders choose dialogue instead, expect a risk-on rebound. The USD stays a wildcard: trust in the US remains, but shocks test that trust.
๐ Airlines Pausing Flights?
Yes โ major airlines are avoiding the Gulf. That alone signals how real this risk is.
โ
My plan is clear:
I never short disasters. I never profit from pain. I am LONG on humanity and peace. Iโd rather lose a trade than wish for blood in the streets.
I do have some carefully calculated positions open tonight โ fully risk-managed and small-sized. If Monday gaps bless me, fine. If peace wins and my trades lose? Even better.
๐ Watch the full video for my live charts, context, and unfiltered thoughts.
This text is just a recap โ the full idea is already posted as a video.
Stay sharp. Stay ethical. Protect your capital and your soul โ one good trade is never worth your humanity.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR ๐
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! ๐๐ค๐
BTC levels to watch for a breakoutMarkets are quiet, and Bitcoin is coiling. A potential breakout looms as we await the Presidentโs Working Group crypto update by July 23. Will positive news trigger a rally to $121,000? Watch for key levels and triangle patterns.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
BTC/USD - The Bitcoin Cycle TopBTC has recently broken below a key uptrend line that had been guiding price for some time. Iโm watching for a potential backtest of that broken trendline, a rather classic move that could set the stage for a final upwards squeeze, possibly printing a quick higher high to trap late longs.
Iโm watching the circled area closely as a potential exhaustion zone. Key levels and price action around the trendline will be critical, breaking of upwards trendlines after backtesting may mark the beginning of the larger unwind.
We could see multiple backtests of the broken trendline over time, with the trendline now likely acting as resistance.
Note: Iโm publishing this idea simply to have a timestamped record. This post is my way of putting a clear marker in the sand. Iโm not looking to debate or go deeper into the reasoning, and I generally wonโt be responding to comments.
BTC/USD BUY 22/06/2025๐บ๐ธ This trade setup offers a strong buying opportunity, supported by several technical confluences. We observe a retest of the lower boundary of a descending range within a broader bullish trend, reinforced by a bullish RSI divergence and the presence of a key support zone. The strategy is to wait for a potential retest of the range low before entering a long position around the \$100,000 to \$101,000 area, with a stop loss set at \$98,000 to manage risk. The target (TP) is set at \$110,000, aiming for a risk-to-reward ratio (RR) greater than 3, which makes this setup highly attractive in terms of risk management.
From a fundamental perspective, this bullish bias is further supported by growing institutional interest and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, marked by inflation and geopolitical tensions. These factors continue to drive demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin as a store of value.
Cup and Handle Hello Traders ๐ โ Hope you're having a strong start to the week!
Let's dive into the BTCUSD Daily Chart ๐ โ weโre looking at a Cup and Handle setup that's matured beautifully.
๐ต Price carved out a clean rounded base (cup), followed by a consolidation handle right below resistance.
๐ The 200 SMA is holding as dynamic support.
โก๏ธ A confirmed break above 109K could launch price toward 130K+, with clear Fibonacci extension targets in sight.
Key Zones:
Handle Support: 100,472
Breakout Line: 109,360
Main Target: 130,867
Extended: 136Kโ144K
Structure โ
| Momentum Building โก | Risk Managed ๐ฏ
Stay sharp, stay patient. Structure first โ breakout next.
#Bitcoin - Pivot is $102915 | Target $125385 or $80445 ?Date: 24-06-2025
#Bitcoin
Current Price: 105375
Pivot Point: 102915.00 Support: 99206.48 Resistance: 106655.63
#Bitcoin Upside Targets:
Target 1: 111205.31
Target 2: 115755.00
Target 3: 120570.00
Target 4: 125385.00
#Bitcoin Downside Targets:
Target 1: 94640.74
Target 2: 90075
Target 3: 85260
Target 4: 80445.00
Chart Pattern Analysis of Bitcoin.
K4 close at high price area, but still failed to close upon the downtrend line,
If K5 close upon the line,
The strong bullish momentum will be verified here,
And the market will accelerate to test or break up 112K area.
It is also possible that the market consolidate around the downtrend line,
And days later, it chose to break up or fall down.
If I didnโt bought it earlier,
I will not buy it here.
It is still possible that the following candles fall to test 101K or 103K area.
I will try to buy it there.
BITCOIN All boxes checked. Couldn't be more bullish than this!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has filled numerous bullish conditions with the latest being holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This is basically the 3rd time testing and holding it since June 05. Even if that doesn't hold, we have the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) directly below it as the ultimate long-term Support.
This trend-line just so happens to be exactly on the neckline of the Right Shoulder on the long-term Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that has been in development since December 17 2024.
On top of all these, the market also formed a 1D Golden Cross a month ago, always a strong long-term bullish signal. IH&S patterns typically target their 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which sits at $168000.
Is that another indication that Bitcoin is going after 150k at least on its next run? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is this just a giant Bull Flag??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw a strong sell-off yesterday in the aftermath of the U.S. strike in Iran and fears of retaliation, but in later hours recovered some of the lost ground. The recovery is being extended into the Asian and early E.U. hours today and the emerging Channel Down pattern already draws strong similarities with the one in December 17 2024 - January 13 2025.
Both broke below their respective 1D MA50 (blue trend-lines) to form a Lower Low, which in the case of Jan 2025, it initiated a rebound that tested the All Time High (ATH) Resistance. See also how similar their 1D RSI patterns are, testing the same Support level too (41.20).
Given that this time the uptrend has been much shorter since the April 07 2025 Low, this Channel Down may be nothing but a giant Bull Flag in the middle of a standard Bull Cycle Leg. Until confirmed with a 1W candle closing above the ATH Resistance though, the medium-term Target is $111900.
Notice also the formation today of a 1D MA100/200 Bullish Cross, the first since November 13 2024.
So what do you think? Is $111900 your short-term Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Ascending Inverse H&S on the BTC weekly chartThe longer it takes to break above this neckline the higher the breakout target will be. I have arbitrarily placed the measured move line at July 18th 2025. If the breakout were to happen on that day the measured move target is around 208k, which could take quite awhile to reach or if we entered a truly hyperparabolic blow off top we could reach such a target way quicker than when the dotted measured move line reaches it. *not financial advice*
BTCUSD โ Price Approaching The Edge of the Channel๐ BTCUSD โ Price Approaching The Edge of the Channel
Bitcoin has surged sharply from the lower boundary of its descending channel and is now reaching another โEdgeโ โ the upper resistance line.
๐ฏ Two Key Scenarios:
๐ฉ Bullish Breakout: A clear breakout above ~$108,000 with strong volume could initiate a new leg toward $111K and beyond
๐จ Bearish Rejection: Failure to break the channel may lead to a corrective wave back toward $103K or lower
This is a classic "decision point" โ where market structure and momentum meet supply and resistance.
โ
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TheEdge #ChannelTrading #EMA #BitcoinResistance #MJTrading #CryptoSetup #SwingTrade #MarketStructure #BreakoutOrRejection #KeyLevel #TrendWatch
Bitcoin Price Chart Analysis (30-Min, BITSTAMP๐ Key Observations:
1. Resistance Zone (106,500โ107,000):
Price is testing a strong horizontal resistance area, marked by the green rectangle.
This zone has acted as resistance multiple times (highlighted with orange circles), suggesting supply pressure.
2. Triple Top Formation:
The three orange circles mark failed breakout attempts at the resistance level, forming a triple top pattern, a bearish reversal signal.
Each top is followed by a price drop, showing seller dominance near this zone.
3. Current Price Action:
Price is currently at 106,777, near the resistance peak again.
A downward arrow points to a projected target of 104,399, implying a potential short-term bearish move if rejection happens again.
4. Support Zones:
104,399 is marked as a short-term target and potential support level.
A major support zone also exists around the 100,000 level, indicated by the green horizontal box and upcoming economic events (red/blue news icons).
5. Trendlines & Patterns:
Earlier trendline breakouts (rising wedge and falling wedge) led to short rallies and corrections.
The most recent bullish move seems to be losing momentum at this resistance.
---
๐ Conclusion:
The chart suggests a bearish bias in the short term unless Bitcoin breaks and holds above the 107,000 resistance level.
If rejected again, the price may fall toward the 104,399 target, and possibly lower if bearish momentum strengthens.
Traders may look for confirmation (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns, volume drop) before entering short positions.