Btcusd Fall ContinuesBitcoin (BTC) tumbled to a low of $101,095 on Friday amid volatility in the market. The effect of the tussle between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Tesla Chief Elon Musk negatively influenced the NASDAQ and Tesla's stock price on Thursday, although both are recovering on Friday.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bull Run Over, See you in 3 years Bitcoin Just took our previous resistance, and it's failing to displace or close above it; instead, it's rejecting and closing below it.
This to me signals a move to SSL and even lower prices for Bitcoin; I will be interested in Bitcoin around the year 2028.
Good bye crypto for now; I'm looking to stack up some funds until 2028 to buy cheap bitcoin around sub-40K levels.
BTCUSD Analysis | is 100k the Next Target?🔍 Chart Breakdown:
Price previously formed a range under key resistance at $108,800.
A Triangle Pattern emerged after a sharp rejection from the resistance zone.
The recent breakdown from this pattern signals bearish momentum.
Support Level: $100,513 — Key level to watch for a potential bounce or further breakdown.
📊 Scenarios to Watch:
🔴 Bearish Case (Preferred):
Breakdown continuation below $104,000 could trigger a move toward the $100,500 support.
Clean rejection from triangle breakdown area confirms the bearish structure.
🟢 Bullish Case (Less Likely):
If BTC holds above $104,000 and breaks above the mid-range zone (~$106,500), a retest of $108,800 is possible.
Watch for fakeouts at the top of the range.
💡Trade Ideas:
Short opportunities on breakdown retest or rejection from $106,000–106,500.
Potential long only if $108,800 is broken with strong volume confirmation.
🛑 Risk Management:
Always use stop-loss. Monitor BTC dominance and macro sentiment for confluence.
💬 What do you think? Bearish breakdown or fakeout trap? Let’s discuss below!
BITCOIN, trend outlook for this summerWhile the fundamentals are still very complicated on the stock market at present, with the FED intransigent, trade war/diplomacy (deadline set for July 9 to reach trade agreements) and extreme geopolitical tensions, can the bitcoin price withstand all these challenges and continue its annual bull run over the summer? Let's take a look at a number of elements, including a major technical risk and two factors that are, on the contrary, favorable to a new record this summer.
1) Bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the spring 2024 halving is still long
Let's start with the cyclical aspect of bitcoin, the famous 4-year cycle built around the quadrennial halving. The last halving took place in April 2024, and if the cycle repetition works again, then the current cycle is due to end at the end of 2025. So there's still time for bitcoin to set a new record, even if it comes under short-term pressure - it still has 5 months to go.
The first chart below summarizes the 4-year cycle by averaging the time and price of all previous cycles since 2009. Our current cycle is represented by the red curve, and in terms of probability, the end of the cycle is expected between October and December 2025.
There's still time, and this is the first major piece of information in our article.
2) A bearish technical divergence in weekly data calls for great caution
On the other hand, technical analysis of the bitcoin price in weekly data gives a warning signal with the presence of a bearish price/momentum divergence, market momentum being represented here by the RSI technical indicator.
This bearish divergence resembles that at the end of the previous cycle in November 2021, but the comparison stops here. At that time, all end-of-cycle models were on alert, but this is not the case today. Nevertheless, we must be aware that this bearish divergence could be a pressure factor this summer.
3) Global liquidity as represented by the M2 monetary aggregate gives grounds for optimism about bitcoin's summer trend
Global M2 deploys a strong positive correlation with the bitcoin price, and it takes an average of 12 weeks for this liquidity to act on BTC. This monetary aggregate measures the sum of the money supply (M2) of the major economies - USA, China, Eurozone - converted into US dollars. It includes sight deposits, savings accounts and certain short-term instruments, representing the gross liquidity immediately available in the global economy.
This level of liquidity is directly influenced by monetary (key rates, QE/QT), fiscal and wage policies. The evolution of the US dollar plays a crucial role: a strong dollar mechanically reduces global M2 in USD, while a weak dollar increases it. In this respect, Chinese and US dynamics are often divergent, as they are driven by different credit logics (centralized planning on the Chinese side, rate-based adjustment on the US side).
Since the beginning of April, Bitcoin has been on a marked uptrend. This progression, which we have followed step by step, raises an essential question: can this momentum be maintained this summer, despite the fundamental challenges of the moment?
Such a hypothesis is plausible, provided that a key - and often underestimated - driver continues to act: the unprecedented increase in global liquidity, as measured by the M2 monetary aggregate. According to the latest available data, global M2 has set a new all-time record, and this is a factor supporting the BTC trend for the first part of the summer.
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BITCOIN Getting Ready For The 1hr Bounce.Alright ladies and gentlemen, bears 1hr tf party almost completed.
Vertical blue line is where it ends and Bulls take over again, so whatever price drops when it reaches that vertical blue line (if not sooner) that will be it and will start bouncing.
Now, if the bounce starts from a point too low (near $100k ) and doesn't breaks above $107k again then brace for a hard landing next week cause bulls are getting weaker and weaker on every drop and if this pattern continues then we will see numbers below $100k by next week.
It is very important for price to end this week candle above $109k .
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen, we are heading for a rough end of week.
Best areas to enter for next bounce are below $102500 with liquidation point below $100k with low lev recommended. Use lev wisely.
Know the rules of the game....play it right. Have a nice trading day.
Cycle Last LegThis present cycle is near its end. Pico top will arrive soon, probably by the end of November. BTC is currently ranging (103-109) forming a new base at 106, which is the current point of control. The start of the next and final up leg should start early July, so we have less than 2 weeks to remain patient.
Stand fast. Keep faith. Remain vigilant.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 2-Hour Candlestick Chart2-hour candlestick chart displays the recent price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) against the U.S. Dollar (USD), showing a current price of $103,904.89 with a gain of $595.12 (+0.58%) as of 01:22:41. The chart highlights a volatile period with significant price fluctuations, including a sharp drop followed by a recovery, and includes key price levels such as $106,099.25 and $102,803.95. The chart also features a highlighted support zone in pink and a resistance zone in light blue
Bais A.M.D : Accumulation Manipulation and Distribution.
H & S : Head and Shoulder
Accumulation.
BTC Accumulated Range 104139 - 106206
Manipulation
Manipulated Range 106247 - 109105
Forming a Head and Shoulder pattern.
Distribution
Currently in a Distribution phase.
After breaking below 106247 support to a low 102287. Heading to a Minor resistance range 105233 - 105731 for a more downside continuation below 102275.
IMO. DYOR
Market next target 🔄 Disruption Analysis:
1. Weak Support Confirmation
The chart marks a "Support area," but there is no strong confirmation (e.g., a hammer or engulfing bullish candle with high volume).
Support zones are more reliable with multiple prior bounces; here, it seems newly identified and not yet validated.
2. Bearish Volume Signature
During the recent decline (before the support), the red volume bars are significantly larger, indicating strong selling pressure.
The recovery candles near support have low volume, which may signal lack of conviction from bulls.
3. Lower Highs Formation
Prior to the drop, we see a series of lower highs, hinting at weakening bullish momentum.
This could suggest a potential bearish continuation, especially if price fails to break above the last local high (~106,000).
4. Possible Bearish Retest
Instead of a bullish breakout, the current price might just be retesting the broken support-turned-resistance.
This is a common bull trap scenario where prices bounce slightly before resuming downward.
My btcusd analysis based on demand & supply , and central areaFirst of all btcusd in down trend , then i follow demand supply rule, from my observation.
Second point look the pressure in the hammers , it tells where the price heading, and for more confirmation wait for hammer failure and retest in the price, then you see the momentum in the price.
Bitcoin (EoY '28) - Potentials <3I just wanted to publish this because I feel there is some deep involvement on the drawings based off the all-time historic trendline.
I would like to see how this unfolds. Usually, I am too grandiose about my predictions, or too short-time-minded/%gains. Today we can see a few things that are appreciative and indicative of continuation on a higher timeframe. We can crawl and crawl forever. You musn't be afraid. Continue to trudge forward. There are no bears here, they are only phantoms in the dark.
BTCUSD – At a Make-or-Break LevelBTCUSD – At a Make-or-Break Level: Will Bitcoin Rebound or Slide Further?
Bitcoin continues to hover near a critical support level after last week's sharp drop. With rising macro uncertainty, shifting institutional flows, and growing interest in crypto regulation, BTCUSD is showing signs of a potential reversal — but traders should proceed with caution.
🌐 Macro Outlook – Debt Pressure, ETFs & Election Talk Fuel Uncertainty
US fiscal stress is building: Analysts warn that the United States could see interest payments exceed $1 trillion in 2025 — more than its defense or healthcare budget. This puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider fiscal tightening instead of rate cuts.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are slowing: After a strong start in early 2024, institutional flows into spot BTC ETFs have cooled down recently. Hedge funds and asset managers are waiting for more clarity on economic policy.
Pro-crypto narratives gaining traction in US politics: With elections approaching, political figures are floating proposals to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset and encourage crypto-based financial infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains volatile. A weaker dollar could support crypto, but stronger-than-expected inflation data may fuel further caution.
📉 Technical Analysis (BTCUSD – H1 to H4)
BTC is currently trading within a medium-term descending channel, and has recently tested the key support zone near 103,108.
A potential V-recovery pattern is forming. If buyers can hold this zone and break above 104,184, the price may target 106,047 and eventually 107,586.
However, EMA clusters (50–100–200) on the H1 chart are still pressing downward. A confirmed bullish reversal would require a breakout above 105,200 with strong volume.
✅ Suggested Trade Plan
🟢 BUY ZONE: 103,100 – 103,300
Entry: On price reaction with confirmation candlestick
SL: 102,600
TP: 104,184 → 106,047 → 107,586
🔴 SELL ZONE: 107,500 – 107,800
Entry: Only if price rejects resistance at upper channel
SL: 108,200
TP: 106,000 → 104,500
⚠️ Avoid aggressive shorting in the current range to reduce false breakout risk.
💬 Final Thoughts for Indian Traders
The current market is caught between macroeconomic caution and long-term crypto optimism. Bitcoin is holding near its lower range — a zone that historically triggers upward momentum.
For Indian traders, the key is to wait for clear structural confirmation and respect technical levels. Let price and macro alignment guide your decisions, not emotion or hype.
Plan the trade. Trade the plan. Protect your capital.
BTCUSD 15M CHART PATTERN This chart is a 15-minute candlestick chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from TradingView, showing recent price movement and a potential bullish prediction.
Key Observations:
1. Downtrend & Reversal Point:
A significant downward move is marked with a red arrow, signaling a potential short-selling opportunity or a bearish trend that recently ended.
The price then forms a rising trendline (in red), suggesting an ascending triangle pattern — a bullish continuation signal.
2. Current Price:
As of the time on the chart (June 21, 2025, 04:56 UTC), the BTC price is approximately $103,441.
3. Breakout Projection:
A green arrow indicates a breakout point above the resistance level, supported by the red trendline.
The chart suggests a projected bullish move with a target near $108,090, illustrated with an upward zigzag path in a shaded box — representing the possible path price might follow post-breakout.
4. Chart Analysis Implication:
If the price holds above the red trendline and breaks above the consolidation range, the projection implies an upward target of around $108,000–$110,000.
Conclusion:
The chart author anticipates a bullish breakout from a consolidation pattern, aiming for higher levels in the short term. However, a failure to hold above the rising trendline might invalidate the bullish scenario.
Would you like a technical analysis summary, a trading strategy based on this chart, or help interpreting more details?
Warning: BTC Just Got Rejected HARD — Next Stop $101KBTCUSDT 4H Technical Analysis – Bearish Setup in Motion
The current 4-hour chart of BTCUSDT on Binance paints a clearly bearish picture, driven by strong confluence between the Ichimoku Cloud system, price structure, and descending trend channel. Market sentiment has shifted from indecision to downside control, and unless bulls reclaim critical zones soon, a drop toward $101,900 appears highly likely.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish Confirmation on Multiple Levels
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator in this setup plays a dominant role in forming the bearish bias. First, the price action has broken below the Kumo (cloud) and is currently rejecting it from the underside. This behavior alone signals a shift in sentiment, as the cloud now acts as dynamic resistance.
The Tenkan-sen (conversion line), shown in blue, has crossed below the Kijun-sen (baseline) in red—this is a strong bearish crossover. Notably, this crossover occurred below the cloud, which within Ichimoku principles is considered one of the most powerful bearish signals available. It reflects a synchronized decline in both short-term and medium-term momentum.
Furthermore, the future cloud (Senkou Span A and B projection) is flat and shaded in red, signaling weak bullish momentum ahead and strengthening the case for a downward continuation. Flat Kumo tops also indicate a magnet for price, often pulling it back for a re-test before continuation—precisely what is unfolding here.
The Chikou Span (lagging line), which plots the current price 26 periods back, is well below both the price and the Kumo. This further confirms that market sentiment, momentum, and trend direction are all biased to the downside.
Price Structure and Trend Channel
Overlaying the chart is a clearly defined descending parallel channel, capturing the recent series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has respected this channel on multiple occasions, rebounding near its bounds and reacting to its midline as dynamic support and resistance.
Currently, BTCUSDT is moving lower after retesting the mid-range of this descending channel, which aligns with the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud. This overlap creates a powerful resistance confluence between $104,600 and $105,800—exactly where price was rejected in the most recent candle clusters.
The repeated failure to break back into the cloud shows that supply pressure is overwhelming, and bulls are losing grip of any short-term recovery.
Liquidity Zones and Risk-Reward Mapping
A red shaded area marks the resistance zone, aligning with the upper boundary of the cloud and the mid-channel structure. This region, between $104,600 and $105,900, has repeatedly acted as a rejection area and represents where sellers are currently stepping in with confidence.
Meanwhile, the projected target is highlighted through the green shaded rectangle, roughly between $101,900 and $102,200, representing the next strong demand zone and the lower boundary of the descending channel.
The downward arrow on the chart visually reinforces this bearish idea, indicating a continuation of the current momentum toward those support levels.
Trade Setup Based on Chart
This current structure provides a clean, high-probability trade opportunity for bearish traders looking to capitalize on further downside in BTC:
• Entry Zone: $104,500 – $105,000
• Stop Loss: Above $106,200 (just above cloud resistance and recent rejection wicks)
• Target: $101,900
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.3 (depending on entry)
Final Thoughts
The technical case for shorting BTCUSDT here is robust. The Ichimoku system aligns on all fronts—price below the cloud, bearish Tenkan/Kijun crossover under the Kumo, a red future cloud, and a bearish Chikou Span. On top of that, price action is obeying a descending channel and just rejected from its midpoint.
If this setup plays out as expected, BTC is likely to retest the $101,900 region before bulls attempt to regain control. Scalpers may consider dynamic trailing stops below $104,000, but positional shorts can hold with clear invalidation above the red cloud zone.