#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Yeah I won’t make stuff up this week either. Range is the same and we saw some expansion last week but barely. Targets for both sides remain the same and if you don’t like trading ranges, stop reading here. I have no idea where the next breakout will happen but a slightly bearish bias due to this market going sideways 12k points below ath while nasdaq is pumping.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls printed another lower high and have nothing to show for after this week. They need daily closes above the 20ema and 100k to gain control again. Same stuff as last week.
Invalidation is below 88k.
bear case: Market is totally neutral. If bears start closing bars below 90k we can talk bear targets again. For now it’s nested triangles.
Invalidation is above 110k.
short term: Neutral. Play the range until broken.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
We are in a big trading range until it’s clearly broken. Bearish targets will only happen once we get a strong move below 90k.
current swing trade: Nope
chart update: Added the smaller triangle as well.