BTCUSD.P trade ideas
$BTC forming a range, getting tight w lower than average volumeCRYPTOCAP:BTC forming a range and getting tight with lower than average volume, under a rising 150/200 MA (could be resistance). Shorter term MAs looking to cross 10/20. Will keep my eyes on NASDAQ:IBIT and CBOE:BITX if this range breaks in either direction
BTCUSD INTRADAY Oversold bounce back capped at 88,000Recent price action in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests an oversold bounce, with resistance capping gains at the 88,000 level. The continuation of selling pressure could extend the downside move, with key support levels at 80,850, followed by 77,500 and 74,420.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 88,000, accompanied by a daily close higher, would invalidate the bearish outlook. In this scenario, Bitcoin could target 90,540, with further resistance at 91,890.
Conclusion:
The price remains below pivotal level, with 88,000 acting as a key resistance. Failure to break above this level could reinforce downside risks, while a breakout could shift momentum back in favour of bulls. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before positioning for the next move.
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$BTC Update - Sideways Movement AheadCRYPTOCAP:BTC #BTC at $84,221 support and testing, Next key resistances at $88,674 and $91,357, $81,614 current key support area, Ranging between $86,305-$82,833. Low volume on 4H, put bullish engulfing on previous 4H close but no follow up on current 4H, Last weekly close looks good with a bullish engulfing, but current weekly not looking promising for a follow thru yet. Previous daily closed bearish, RSI remains neutral on 4H, 1D and 1W. Expecting more sideways movement until $91,357 resistance is taken as support.
Bitcoin: Are We Facing a Financial Paradigm Shift?Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Bitcoin is undergoing a crucial moment in its evolution. Fifteen years after its creation, this cryptocurrency has transformed from a simple digital alternative to traditional money into a consolidated unit of measurement, payment method, and potential store of value. And perhaps most importantly, it could be entering a new structural phase amidst a global transformation of the monetary system.
A Response to the Fiat System
Originally conceived as a reaction to the excessive money printing by central banks and the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies, Bitcoin has become an increasingly utilized tool. Not only in everyday transactions —BTC ATMs can now be found in many cities worldwide— but also as a real alternative to traditional assets.
Stability and Market Maturity
Over the last year, Bitcoin's price has shown a much more stable evolution than in previous cycles, leaving behind extreme levels of volatility. Zones that previously acted as ceilings now serve as supports, suggesting maturation of the asset and greater institutional and retail acceptance.
Bitcoin vs. the Rest of the Crypto Ecosystem
While other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum continue to reflect significant fluctuations, Bitcoin stands out as the most robust asset in the crypto ecosystem. This position is further reinforced in a context of global monetary expansion, where the money supply has grown again after a brief contraction, surpassing even the peaks seen in 2024.
Bitcoin as a Safe Haven Amid Fiscal and Monetary Imbalances
This environment strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. With governments increasing debt, deficits, and public spending, and central banks maintaining accommodative monetary policies, traditional limits seem to blur. Especially in emerging economies, where the deterioration of purchasing power is more pronounced, Bitcoin is solidifying its position as an alternative safe haven.
Technical Analysis
Currently, Bitcoin's price in recent weeks has shown a strong correlation with the fluctuations driven by Trump’s tariffs. After hitting lows on Monday the 7th and Wednesday the 9th, the precious token has appreciated back to the mid-range it has been pivoting in since February. The lower end of a long-term range fluctuating between $93,490 and $81,378. The RSI indicator currently shows no significant movements, confirming the point of control (POC) around the current price of $84,745. The moving averages from the Asian and European markets suggest that the price does not seem likely to move far from the POC for the moment. Observing Fibonacci retracements, we can see the price is currently fluctuating between 61.80% and 78.60%. This is generally a zone where a correction could occur towards the 50% level, which aligns with the lower range at $81,378. Delta zones indicate strong bearish pressure in this area, so the price might revisit this level before reinforcing the price tested more than four times.
Why Has Bitcoin Recently Fallen, Along with the Rest of the Market?
Despite this structural evolution, Bitcoin has experienced a correction in recent days, in line with the general drop in risk assets. Some of the main factors explaining this pullback include:
• Strengthening of the U.S. Dollar: The rise of the DXY index has pressured several dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin.
• Increase in Bond Yields: The rise in the 10-year Treasury bond yields has encouraged capital rotation towards safer instruments, at the expense of more volatile assets.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The growing uncertainty in the Middle East has generated risk aversion, favoring gold while penalizing the crypto market.
• Profit-Taking After the Halving: After the strong appreciation following April’s halving, many investors opted to lock in profits, creating additional bearish pressure.
• Liquidations in the Derivatives Market: High leveraged exposure triggered a cascade of automatic liquidations when key technical levels were broken.
A Temporary Adjustment or a Structural Opportunity?
Ultimately, although Bitcoin has suffered a recent correction, its long-term fundamentals appear to remain strong. The cryptocurrency has not only passed multiple tests throughout its history but now projects itself as a systemic asset in the new financial order. Just as gold did in earlier times, Bitcoin may be positioning itself as the mirror of the monetary excesses in the current system.
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GLD/SPX as a risk-off signal for BTC/SPXFor all the "Bitcoin will follow gold" crowd...
This chart tells a very different story.
Every time we’ve seen GLD/SPX rally sharply, BTC/SPX has underperformed for months afterward.
📉 See the shaded red zones – they highlight periods when:
GLD/SPX (gold line) made strong relative moves,
BTC/SPX (aqua line) lagged or outright dropped.
We're in another one of those zones right now.
Unless you’ve got a strong reason why "this time is different," the base case is clear:
BTC/SPX likely underperforms for another 3–6 months.
If you're positioning long BTC expecting it to mimic gold's run, be aware — that hasn't played out well historically.
🧭 Trade Idea:
Patience: Don't rush the BTC long. Let the GLD/SPX spike play out.
Timeframe: Revisit BTC/SPX for potential re-entry mid-to-late 2025.
BITCOIN TO 20.000Possible Bitcoin Drop to $20,000: What’s Behind the Bearish Outlook?
Bitcoin is facing increased selling pressure amid broader market uncertainty, raising the possibility of a drop to the critical $20,000 support level. Several factors are contributing to this bearish scenario, including tighter monetary policies, reduced investor confidence, and declining trading volumes. Technical indicators also show signs of weakness, with key support levels being tested and a lack of bullish momentum. If market sentiment continues to deteriorate, a correction toward $20,000 could become a reality. Traders and investors are closely watching for signs of stabilization or further downside movement.
possible breakout for long term investment (1D TF chart)Previously, Bitcoin faced rejection and dropped sharply after touching the upper trendline. However, this time, it's showing strength by consolidating near the same level for the last 5 days. This could indicate accumulation or a potential breakout attempt.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Path: Eyeing the Order Block ZoneIn my personal technical analysis, Bitcoin appears poised to revisit the order block zone between $73,000 and $69,000. If price reacts strongly from this area, following the blue trendlines I've drawn, it could resume its upward trajectory toward the top of the channel. This bullish momentum has the potential to play out through the end of 2025.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Path: Eyeing the Order Block ZoneIn my personal technical analysis, Bitcoin appears poised to revisit the order block zone between $73,000 and $69,000. If price reacts strongly from this area, following the blue trendlines I've drawn, it could resume its upward trajectory toward the top of the channel. This bullish momentum has the potential to play out through the end of 2025.
Best Regards
BITCOIN Supply Demand Short ALERT1) See picture for full analysis...
Higher Timframe:
-Price inside supply
-Trend = downtrend
-Stochastic RSI overbought
Lower Timeframe:
-Need break to break support + break upward trend-line + quality supply created.
- IF price does the following then possible pullback for short OR look for scalp/day-trade shorts
to the downside with 1TF setups.
#supplyanddemand #supportandresistance
BTC STILL STRUGGLINGBitcoin continues to struggle with the 50-day moving average, currently acting as dynamic resistance. Price is hovering just below it, unable to break through cleanly, and the 200 MA remains overhead, adding additional pressure from above.
Market structure remains bearish for now – we’re still printing lower highs and lower lows. That structure won’t flip until Bitcoin can break decisively above $88,804, the last significant swing high from late March. A close above that level would mark a higher high and potentially signal a trend reversal.
Until then, it’s just a relief rally within a broader downtrend. The bulls need to reclaim key levels with conviction – otherwise, this could be a pause before another leg lower.
Bitcoin to $70K? My LSTM Model Thinks So📈 Bitcoin to $70K? My LSTM Model Thinks So 🚀
I've been working on an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural network designed to forecast Bitcoin prices, and the results are exciting. My model analyzes historical BTC data and learns temporal patterns to predict future movements. After extensive training and optimization, it reached an accuracy of around 96% on the training set.
🔍 How it works:
LSTM networks are especially powerful for time-series forecasting because they can capture long-term dependencies and trends in data. I trained my model using historical daily BTC prices, letting it learn the complex patterns and volatility that define crypto markets. The model takes sequences of past prices and uses that context to project the price movements of the next 30 days.
📊 The Forecast:
Based on the model's output, my current prediction is that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 within the next 30 days. This projection isn’t just a guess – it’s backed by a deep-learning model built to handle the chaotic nature of crypto.
⚠️ Note:
While the training accuracy is high, real-world conditions can differ, and models should always be taken as tools—not certainties. I’m sharing this analysis to contribute to the community and spark discussion.
Would love to hear your thoughts or see if others are seeing similar trends! 👇
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #MachineLearning #LSTM #BitcoinForecast #CryptoTrading
Supply and Demand by Thapelo Consolidation and Expansion
The markets either do one of two things: Price either consolidates or expands.
Consolidation: a period in the market where price is moving calm which moves in a range known as the dealing range. We will be able to identify a clear high and low to this range.
You have probably heard of the term range bound, ranging, or consolidating. This means that price is typically staying in one area, and just moving sideways, rather than up or down.
The range can be tight (meaning a spread of only a few pounds), or the range can be loose (meaning a spread of hundreds of thousands of pounds from range high to low. This partly will come down to the timeframe implemented.
Expansion: a period in the market where price is moving aggressively in one direction or the other. We will see an impulsive move to the upside, or an impulsive move to the downside, where price will give us large candle bodies or wicks. This is known as expansion.
Breakout or BreakDown? MarkDown End Here's What's next!#Bitcoin moving towards its current downtrend structure forming a falling wedge with a potential of 50% recovery from the down fall. KRAKEN:BTCUSD
We can notice below 75K as a spring of the cycle and market declinations, however my insight is only for partial recovery due to ease of economic tensions between the tariff rates and bear market cycles - a cooling moment offers buying sentiment!
At the moment I consider the market accumulating for potential rally moves increasing #demand from over sold of the market.
Keep an eye on the 92K where I believe reactions of most sentiment will comes over this price.
Probability high, but always protect your margin from sudden changes.
This is idea and not financial advice
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