Well, we’re past 105k. What next people? Let’s discuss ideas. I expect a short increase then a sharp dip, but it’s Bitcoin so do the opposite and you’ll do great.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Key Levels Overview for the Week 12.2024(16-20)🔲Key Levels Overview for the Week🔳
12.2024(16-20)
Dynamic Supports🔀
105313
101500
100500
99000
98000
Dynamic Resistance🔀
105313
106363
112400
115700
119300
Mid Pivot (🫎bull&bear🐻 zone ch trend)
123292
111511
99737
range of supply and demand
115243
107672
100100
Bitcoin trackingIt is just a matter of having patience so that everything fits in each analysis. Next stop 110k? We'll see...
Next BTCUSD buy ZoneI am going to assume that the US dollar is increasing in value until we get to the debt ceiling decision. I am expecting a move up to and perhaps beyond the $103-$104 area.
If this happens I have to assume that the BTCUSD will come tumbling down into my next buy zone. If we don't take out the next weekly level, this will be a great buying opportunity. But some sort of confirmation will be needed.
BTCUSD Wyckoff Accumulation Phase completedLets assume that the strength in the US dollar wont last for too much longer, as Central Banks try and work out how many more trillions are needed in the system.
The BTCUSD had been in a trading range for some time and this week we convincingly left it, with a big dose of Bullish price action.
Will it last? IDK. I am long BTCUSD so I am fundamentally in the Bitcoin 🚀 camp so I am also talking up my own book.
However, if we look to Wyckoff and transpose his teachings on the stages of the accumulation phase, we get quite a convincing outlook to the upside.
It could all be down to the fact that we see what we want to see, or it could be a run on the banks to the crypto-sphere.
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. Market went nowhere last week. It’s testing and trying above 103k and it could not close a daily bar above it for now. I have a measured move at 110k but that’s about it for me. Obviously bears are not doing anything, so either don’t trade or look for long scalps. Bears need a daily close below 94k to begin having arguments again.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k.
comment : I still doubt we can close this above 100k for 2024. Bears are obviously not doing anything for now. Does that mean this is a decent long? Hell no. Last target I have is 110k but I don’t care about this market until we see a daily close below 90k.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon.
key levels: 90000 - 110000
bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but that’s about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control. Did not change a word since last week because nothing has changed for the market.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Bears not doing enough. Won’t waste brain resources making up stuff here. Daily close below 90k, then we can talk.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 100k and now we are at 103k. Nothing changed since market stayed inside the range. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Nothing
Bitcoin Breaks Through 102k Liquidity Zone, Girls Late to PartyBitcoin broke through the 102k liquidity zone acting as resistance for the past week. But it did so with low volume signaling some bearish divergence.
Key Considerations:
1. Weak Commitment: Lower volume suggests that there may not be enough buyer commitment to sustain the breakout.
Think of it like showing up to a party with a single girl and as soon as she realizes she's being ogled by a room full of broke bulls, she's gonna be the first one out of the door.
2. Potential Fakeout: A breakout with low volume increases the likelihood of a false breakout, where the price could fall back below the liquidity zone.
3. Lack of Conviction: The price holding above the liquidity zone on lower volume might indicate hesitation.
What to Watch For:
Price Action on Retest: If the price retests the liquidity zone and holds (even with moderate volume), it may still confirm support, but the next move up might be slower or weaker. This is bullish.
Volume Spike: Look for a volume increase in subsequent candles. If volume starts to pick up, it can validate the breakout. A couple more girls arrive to the party just before everyone leaves.
Divergences: Check for divergences in momentum indicators like RSI or MACD, which could signal a potential reversal. We have has a moderate amount at time of posting.
How to Approach It:
Cautious Optimism: Treat the breakout as tentatively bullish but remain cautious until stronger confirmation (e.g., a second retest or a breakout above the next resistance level with higher volume). Holden swears more girls are on the way
B/$ 2024 Analysis of 2024 and continuation in 2025
I don't think there will be such steep trends next year, I think it will be more in the range
BITCOIN TO 54K by EOY ???Is this Bullflag breaking out and absolutely going parabolic ?
Maybe, maybe not .
I believe a new all time high is comming sooner than everybody thinks
A question i keep asking myself for weeks now... how many months did the covid crash delayed the top in 2021 ???
BTC bulltrap incAs I continue to DCA BTC like I always do I am attempting to locate the next capitulatory zone. I think max pain would be to hit the fib extension around 110-111k and then have a rather quick dump to 87-91k. This would allow large institutions to get in below 100k one last time right around Christmas and start their 2025 positions. There is no guarantee this happens but this seems like a possible path to me.
My plan:
I will be selling all of my CLSK on this pump, I have been looking to get rid of miners for a while, they are trash tier investments. Since large investors can just buy the ETF why buy miners that dilute shares? I will be stopping adding alts after today until I see which direction we are headed.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Rising Wedge Formation Signals PotenTechnical Analysis
1. Price Pattern
The chart shows a Rising Wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish continuation or reversal pattern. This formation is characterized by price movement within converging trendlines, indicating weakening upward momentum.
In this context, the Rising Wedge suggests a potential downside breakout if the price fails to break above the upper resistance.
2. Key Levels
Major Resistance: $103,620, a critical level that must be broken with significant volume to confirm a bullish continuation.
Psychological Support: $100,000, which acts as a key holding level in the event of a downside breakout
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
23.6% at $94,930, serving as the first support target after a breakdown.
38.2% at $89,554, which may act as a stronger support if selling pressure increases.
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is at 65.11, nearing the overbought zone. This suggests a potential weakening of bullish momentum and increases the likelihood of a correction.
4. Volume and Confirmation
No clear signs of significant breakout volume are present, favoring the likelihood of a bearish scenario.
Forecast
1. Bearish Scenario (Dominant):
If the price fails to break above the $103,620 resistance and breaches the lower support of the Rising Wedge, it could initially drop to the $100,000 level.
Continued selling pressure may drive the price further down to the Fibonacci 23.6% level at $94,930. In a more extended decline, the Fibonacci 38.2% level at $89,554 becomes the next target.
2. Bullish Scenario (Alternative):
If the price breaks above $103,620 with strong volume, it could signal a bullish continuation, with the first target near $107,000.
In this scenario, a tight stop-loss is essential to protect against potential false breakouts.
Trading Recommendations
Confirm Breakout Direction: Wait for a confirmed breakout (up or down) before taking a position.
Short Position Strategy: If the price breaks below the Rising Wedge support, consider a short position targeting $94,930, while setting a stop-loss above $103,620.
Long Position Strategy: If the price breaks above $103,620 with strong volume, consider a long position targeting $107,000, with a stop-loss below the breakout point.
Risk Management: Employ strict stop-loss levels at critical areas to minimize potential losses.
Bitcoin Eyes $107K: Key Levels to WatchBitcoin is showing bullish momentum, breaking through the key intraday resistance around $102,000. However, given the weekend, I am keeping my expectations realistic.
1. Ideally, I’d like to see either (A) a quick dip below $101,662 followed by a prompt recovery, or (B) sustained price action above $101,662. Both scenarios would significantly increase the likelihood of a bullish move toward the critical resistance at $107,000 in the coming days (as per the green projections).
2. Conversely, a drop below $98,984 could lead to choppy price action, a considerable slowdown in momentum, and a high probability of retesting the $94,650 level.
BTCUSD SHORTBTCUSD will most likely fall in the coming weeks. In view of, most safe haven assets rising in the following weeks due to Dollar weakness. BTCUSD may take a tumble to our first target of 91,374, before falling lower to around 69,000.
Note: Do not rush into trading any asset without first getting a clear confirmation.
Push to 112k and then a january pullbackLooks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way. Looks to me it all fits like this way.
BTCUSD can go both ways!!!Full BTC/USD 4H Analysis with Projections
Key Ichimoku Observations:
1. Tenkan-sen (Blue Line): Flat, indicating short-term indecision.
2. Kijun-sen (Red Line): Also flat, confirming a sideways market.
3. Senkou Span A & B (Kumo/Cloud):
The Kumo is thin and slightly bullish (green), suggesting indecision but still supporting a bullish bias.
Price remains above the Kumo, maintaining an overall bullish structure.
4. Chikou Span (Green Line): Positioned above price from 26 periods ago, confirming bullish momentum.
However, it is approaching historical price clusters that may cause resistance.
Wave Theory Analysis (N-Wave and P-Wave):
An N-Wave (bullish impulsive move) occurred earlier, followed by a period of consolidation.
Currently, a P-Wave (triangle formation) is evident, with price contracting between 100,000 (support) and 102,000 (resistance):
Breakout above 102,000 signals trend continuation.
Breakdown below 100,000 signals bearish correction.
Time Theory (Kihon-Suchi):
Ichimoku Time Theory suggests cycles of 9, 17, 26 periods where price movements, reversals, or consolidations occur. Using these time projections:
1. We are at the Decision Zone: The price is consolidating, and a breakout or breakdown is expected within 4-8 candles (16-32 hours).
2. After the breakout/breakdown, the following time projections apply:
9 candles (36 hours): For 1st targets.
17 candles (68 hours): For extended targets.
Trade Setup with Projections:
Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability):
Trigger: Breakout and close above 102,000.
Confirmation:
Price holds above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.
Chikou Span remains free of resistance.
Targets and Projections:
1. 1st Target: 104,000 reached within 9 candles (~36 hours) after breakout.
2. 2nd Target: 106,000 reached within 17 candles (~68 hours) after breakout.
Stop Loss: Place below 100,000 (psychological support and Kijun level).
Bearish Scenario:
Trigger: Breakdown and close below 100,000.
Confirmation:
Chikou Span drops below the price structure.
Price enters and closes below the Kumo.
Targets and Projections:
1. 1st Target: 98,000 reached within 9 candles (~36 hours) after breakdown.
2. 2nd Target: 96,000 reached within 17 candles (~68 hours) after breakdown.
Stop Loss: Place above 102,000 (resistance and previous highs).
Time Cycle Summary Table:
Conclusion:
Current Bias: Bullish as long as price remains above the Kumo and 100,000.
Next Action: Monitor price behavior near 102,000 (resistance) and 100,000 (support).
Time Projection for Breakout or Breakdown: Next 16-32 hours (4-8 candles).
This combined approach using Ichimoku Wave Theory, Time Theory, and price action provides a clear trade plan for BTC/USD.
Is BTC repeating pattern from late 2023?Self expletionary chart.
Pattern from late 2023 looks almost exactly like pattern we have now.
Can we expect push towards 125K?
BTC low timeframe rangeRange
Resistance: +-102k
Midline: 100k (also swing high on daily and mental level)
Support: +-97k
Leverage wipe-outs -> buy: 92.8k
Short term
Everything above 100k is bullish side of range
Everything under 100k is bearish side of range
BTCUSD Hits 104,065, Major Drop ExpectedHello,
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD recently hit a new high of 104,065.00, but a significant downturn is now anticipated, potentially marking a major decline.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
$BTC updateBitcoin is currently testing resistance. So far there doesn't seem to be much volume and I actually don't expect this to continue.
A few days ago I made a chart in which I expect Bitcoin to make another correction. Despite the retest to 102500 and it was strong enough to fall.
For now I still expect the correction to 50% fib
Be kind to the world and each other.
Bitcoin versus VIX shows a significant, but inverse correlation ...... adding to my previous post on Bitcoin versus Tesla, I want to share with you this chart:
Bitcoin versus VIX, which is inverse correlated in its cycles. What is interesting here is the early change in trend towards the new cycle movement of VIX. Especially in these drastic price movements, it would have been a good indicator for the price prediction in Bitcoin .....
BITCOIN FAIR PRICE until Dec 31,2024. #BTCUSD : $99,601
BITCOIN FAIR PRICE until Dec 31,2024. #BTCUSD : $99,601
Overbought (sell sign) above: $101,052
Oversold (Buy signal) below: $93,322
www.tradingview.com
NOTE: Bitcoin tarted this period in Overbought. If it crosses $103,627, Fair Price will shift up to $110,069
Amazing cycle syncronicity between Bitcoin and Tesla priceI was playing around and came accross an amazing cycle syncronicity between the Bitcoin price in US$ and the Tesla stock price. I'm sure such similarities are existing also between other instruments. But I was astonished by the precission of the timing between the two instruments.
By diving deeper into this effect, one can extract some insights when the time comes, i.e. comparing the history of Tesla price chart to Bitcoin at extreme extensions etc..
Have fun .... !!!!
