someone was telling me this looks bullish--???help me out here. this looks like dump continuation for the next couple months. could dump as low as 25k. comment below thanks! Shortby prefabsproutUpdated 8814
Bitcoin Set to Rally as Fed's Rate Cut Fuels Market OptimismOverview: Fed's Potential Rate Cut and Its Implications for Bitcoin The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is creating waves across financial markets, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the spotlight. According to analysts from Citi, the Fed is expected to announce a 0.5% rate cut in their September meeting, driven by weaker-than-expected job data and signs of a slowing economy. This dovish turn by the Fed has market watchers speculating about a potential rally in Bitcoin and altcoins, as lower interest rates historically ease market concerns and boost investor sentiment. Fundamental Analysis: Fed's Shift to a Dovish Stance Citi analysts highlight a significant shift in the Fed's focus—from battling inflation to supporting the labor market amid signs of economic weakness. The latest job data predicts that 125,000 jobs were added in August, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4.3%. This data suggests a cooling labor market, which may prompt the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points, marking a sharp pivot from its previous hawkish stance. This potential rate cut represents a broader easing of monetary policy, aimed at stimulating a slowing economy. Historically, such rate cuts have resulted in increased risk appetite among investors, pushing up asset prices across the board, including cryptocurrencies. As lower borrowing costs flow through the economy, investors are more likely to turn towards higher-risk assets like Bitcoin in search of better returns, especially when traditional safe-haven assets like bonds offer less attractive yields. Bitcoin’s Key Levels and Potential Rally On the technical front, Bitcoin's current price action suggests a potential break from its historically bearish September performance. Trading near the flatline at around $58,111, Bitcoin has shown resilience despite broader market volatility. Currently, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is trading above key support levels, with its 50-day moving average acting as a critical line of defense for bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin sits near the neutral 50 level, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which aligns with a potential buildup towards a breakout. If Bitcoin can maintain its current levels and the Fed’s rate cut materializes, CRYPTOCAP:BTC could target resistance zones near $60,000 and eventually push towards $65,000. Key support remains at $55,000, which, if breached, could see Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) retesting lower levels around $52,000. Market Sentiment: Fed's Policy Pivot Could Drive Investor Interest Sentiment in the broader crypto market appears cautiously optimistic. With the Fed poised to ease monetary policy, investor confidence is gradually returning, as evidenced by the decline in the US 10-year Bond Yield, which fell 1.94% to 3.836%. As traditional markets respond to the Fed’s dovish stance, Bitcoin and altcoins stand to benefit from increased capital flows seeking higher returns in a low-interest-rate environment. Moreover, recent on-chain data indicates an uptick in accumulation by long-term holders, a positive sign suggesting that investors are positioning themselves ahead of a potential market rally. Despite Bitcoin’s historically subdued performance in September, this time, a combination of technical resilience and favorable macroeconomic conditions could help CRYPTOCAP:BTC defy the odds. Conclusion While uncertainties remain, particularly concerning the strength of the broader economy, the anticipated rate cut by the Fed represents a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg up. The combination of supportive technical indicators and a dovish monetary environment creates a fertile ground for a Bitcoin rally, as investors seek refuge in digital assets amid shifting economic dynamics. As we move into September, all eyes will be on the Fed's policy announcement and its impact on market sentiment. If the expected rate cuts unfold, Bitcoin could see a renewed wave of buying pressure, potentially driving prices to new highs despite the challenging historical trends of the month.Shortby DEXWireNews5
$BTCUSD Quarterly Chart broken into daily candlesSupport/Resistance Quarter liquidity zones using RSI High/Low scheme. BTC is getting rejected from the 50 RSI level the period is set on 50 on this chart type. probably going back to 48K possible 42K region. Moving average is 91 and 365 SMA moving averages, and the R/S are set to 91 periods. by RSI_Trading_Concepts0
Navigating Bitcoin’s Market Cycles with PrecisionAs we delve into Bitcoin’s market cycles, it’s essential to approach this analysis with discipline and a data-driven mindset. By leveraging proven tools and methodologies, we can better understand the cyclical nature of this market, allowing us to make informed, strategic decisions that align with our long-term financial goals. The Cycles at a Glance Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a clear cyclical pattern, with significant tops occurring approximately 742 days after a relative bottom. This pattern held steady through the first two major cycles, providing a reliable framework for timing market entries and exits. However, in the most recent cycle, we observed a shift. Instead of a single top at the expected 742-day mark, the market presented us with two peaks—one at 462 days and another at 679 days. This deviation signals a possible evolution in the cycle, suggesting that the duration between bottoms and tops might be shortening. Identifying the "Banana Zone" A critical feature that consistently appears across these cycles is what we’ve identified as the "banana zone." This zone, typically emerging around 308 days after a significant top, is a period of heightened market activity and potential volatility. Recognizing this zone is crucial for managing risk and identifying opportunities within the cycle. Preparing for a Shorter Cycle Given the data, there’s a strong case to be made that the duration from bottom to top is indeed shortening. While the first two cycles peaked at 742 days, the last cycle’s first peak occurred much sooner, at 462 days. If this trend continues, we might anticipate the next top around the 500-day mark from the most recent bottom. This potential shift requires us to adapt our strategies accordingly. Timing is everything, and being aware of a possible earlier peak is essential for maximizing gains and minimizing risk. Strategic Consideration: "Sell in May and Walk Away" Based on this analysis, the old adage “sell in May and walk away” could be particularly relevant. If we expect the market to top around the 500-day mark, this strategy could position us to capitalize on gains before the market enters a period of potential decline or consolidation. However, while historical patterns provide valuable insights, they are not infallible. It’s crucial that we remain vigilant, continuously updating our strategies as new data emerges. Independent research and personal responsibility are key pillars of our approach, ensuring that each decision is well-informed and aligned with our broader financial objectives. Conclusion Our journey through Bitcoin’s market cycles is one of careful planning and disciplined execution. By staying informed and adaptable, we can navigate these cycles with confidence, seizing opportunities while effectively managing risks. As we move forward, let’s continue to refine our strategies, staying committed to our shared goal of financial independence.Longby Calzolaio224
Bitcoin Analysis 03-Sep-24Bitcoin -Is it Forming a W Pattern If support at 55,000$ or strong support at 49,000$ as shown in the graph ( Fib Resistance) and if reversed, then can be tried to buy with target of 70,000$, if it breaks above then 100,000$. by karthikss0
BITCOIN: Bearish – Head and Shoulders + Ascending WedgeBITCOIN: Bearish – Head and Shoulders + Ascending Wedge Two classic Chartist figures were detected by the Wolf of Zurich: 1- An “ascending wedge” which would bring the price down towards $62,632. 2- A “Head and Shoulders” which would subsequently bring the price down to around $52,080. The EMA.50 and 200 also remain potential targets caution.Shortby Le-Loup-de-ZurichUpdated 25
BITCOIN: Double top possible + NAVARRO 200 bullish : Watch out!!BITCOIN: Double top possible: Watch out for 48,000 + NAVARRO 2000 bullish = 2 opposing patterns. The Wolf of Zurich detected a possible double top on bitcoin As expected, the 56,400 was reached perfectly thanks to my analysis. The next levels are: On the decline : 56,425 (again) 48,000 40,770 On the rise: NAVAROO 200 bullish detected, and the price could reach $72,000 then $80,000 In addition, Be careful because there is a bullish divergence with the ROC!! To watch the EMA 50 and 200, and the ICHIMOKU and Fibonacci levelsShortby Le-Loup-de-ZurichUpdated 3
BTCUSD SELLwe have taken PDH we have displacement to the downside followed by MSS and IMB we enter off the IMB stops at the high and target 1:2 RRRShortby Billionairegroup_coUpdated 4410
Bitcoin forecast Hi traders. Look last Bitcoin analysis. After engulf price will start uptrend from behind breakout lvlLongby Market_Magazine226
Can BTC hold $58k as support?BTC trades around $58k, possibly testing support. Closing below $56.6k could be bearish. Closing above 4HR 200MA or $60k could signal some strength. by RayneOnChain1
Buy the Rumour, Sell the News, Bitcoin Bearish next weekThis will be my first time taking a short position on Bitcoin. Right now, I'm thinking about a situation where the price goes higher, to catch short traders who have set stop losses at $63,000 - $64,000. After that, the price might drop to $40,000 - $45,000. DYOR GoodluckShortby DJANAS1STUpdated 101033
BTC - Hourly Bullish With Order Flow Structure Shifting...Hey traders, As one can see, the OFA script has fired a circle pattern. This makes us build the thesis to look for long positions in lower timeframes. Even of the 1h timeframe, as shown in the chart, the structure has shifted to bullish. We can personally conclude that until proven otherwise, the hourly should continue higher. The aggregation of flows via the OFA script helps us visualize the dynamic waves forming to get more precise triggers in these lower timeframes. Remember the two key main features of the OFA script: Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude? Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.Longby FlowState2
BITCOIN - Range Bound20 SMA - Blue 200 SMA - Pink What I See Today: 1) Staunch Bullish Tweezer Formed - 2) While 20 SMA is applying pressure, price could stay range bound. 3) If pressure persists demand could lose its footing. 3) 20 SMA has to "Catch" & "Hold" price to confirm bullish reversal. 4) A price "Range" breakout will offer a clear direction.by ANROC0
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-3 : Reversal Rally Today.Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Reversal Rally. After yesterday's CRUSH pattern (on the Labor Day holiday), we should expect the indexes to persist in a moderate rally phase (or melt-up) today. I believe yesterday's CRUSH pattern played out very nicely on the ES. Today's Reversal Rally pattern should result in the ES attempt to move back to 5653-5660. For the SPY, that will be a move back to 563.00 to 563.40. Overall, I believe today will show a solid attempt to move higher (melting upward) as the price slides into the end of this week very sideways/flat. Starting on Sept 9-10, we should start to move into a rally phase for the SPY/QQQ. Sit tight until then. These intra-day swings are perfect for day trading Gunslingers. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold 14:30by BradMatheny1
BTC production cost update (bearish)BTC production cost indicator marks the average cost to produce a Bitcoin current day (66k). A support band on this indicator is marked around 45k, these areas are tremendously strong long term buy zones on capitulatory events. September tends to start off red. I do expect another down wick on the monthly to 52-54k but we cannot rule out 45k. -September tends to end the month green followed up a bullish October -I will have to push my 80k target out to Nov 1st unfortunately here -With elections coming and a stacked witching hour on Sept 20, be patient for 2-3 more weeksShortby Apollo_21mil0
Don't imagine that learning trading will only take a few weeks.I've been trading since 1987, on and off. You need to be realistic about the time it takes to become profitable. You wouldn't expect to learn a skill in a few weeks of evening classes, so don't expect to become profitable in the same timeframe. Expect a year of study. Good for you if you crack it before then, but be wary of hubris. The market is set up to have many pitfalls for you, and you can make one mistake and be back to square -5 before you can say "WTF happened". If you can make 3-4% 3 months in a row then maybe you know enough to up the size you trade. While you are waiting, try these hints: Don't quit your day job because you had a big win. You have no idea how easy it is to lose what you just made. It's a "learning on the job" process. No matter how much you read or how many YouTube videos you watch, when your money is on the table and your position is going against you, you find out what trading is like. Some say (and I agree) that you aren't really qualified until you have learned your lesson with a stonking loss. Demo accounts teach you nothing. Start small. Or use a prop firm. That way you get the true experience. Protect your capital. Use a stop loss set at the price where you know your initial feel for the market was just wrong. If you think you don't need a stop loss because you are there watching it, then just wait for your first unexpected gap move to learn that one. Have a backstop, at least. People have a habit of running losses, don't be like them. Have the discipline. Don't risk too much on each trade. Great traders can get 10 losses in a row. They know it's part of the game, but that's why they don't put 10% of the account on each trade.... Examples of pitfalls: Spread hours in FX, where you get stopped out 20 pips away from the real market. (50 sometimes) Trading halts in stocks. Unexpected assignment in options. Holding a position over the weekend and a war breaks out. Thanks for listening to my Ted Talk.Educationby Paul_Varcoe44250
Bitcoin Prints Bullish DivergenceBitcoin showed significant bullish divergence with an oversold RSI on the 4-hour chart yesterday, which is one of my favorite bottoming signals, at least for anticipating a substantial bounce. This bullish divergence is also present across all lower time frames. However, we're now monitoring for hidden bearish divergence, which occurs when there's a higher high in the RSI but a lower high in price. This pattern often marks the end of bullish divergence and can indicate a potential continuation of the downtrend. At this point, I don’t see this confirmed yet, as there isn’t a clear downward "elbow" on the RSI. Additionally, I expect that if the price makes another low, it could create more bullish divergence. Overall, I believe we're in for a period of choppy market action, but for shorter-term traders, there are clear signals that could be quite useful.by ScottMelker4
Bitcoin (BTC): Another Rejection From 200EMA200EMA has shown again it's dominance by sellers where buyers got supressed by that zone and got rejected! We are looking now for the daily candle to close below or near the previously daily opening price and a possible start of downward movement should happen! Swallow Team Shortby SwallowPremium228
Bearish ThoughtsLooking at the log regression, it dawned on me that every time that BTC has come down to the bottom of the red channel, it usually didn't have the juice to pop back up. I think 33k might be in play, top of the blue channel. Alternatively, bouncing off here can save the bullrun. But in this global climate? I'm not so sure. Holding steady, but cash ready. Shortby AspiringPro2
Aug.27-Sep.2(BTC)Weekly market recapBTC volatility decreased after BTC gave back the gains from the Jackhole meeting. Currently, the number of stablecoins in the market continues to grow, getting closer to ATH, but there are few market hot spots except memes. After the staking storm passed, we saw the meme rise again. Whether it is Pump.fun on Solana earlier or Sun.pump that appeared on Tron recently, we can see that both large and small entities have turned their attention to memes. Four.meme backed by Binance also began to develop on the BSC chain, trying to capture the popularity after the release of CZ. For the crypto market, except for emergencies, market volatility suffocates any trader, and people can only grow their wealth through memes. The market only transfers wealth and does not create value. Risk assets have fully priced in a September rate cut, and even if there is some difference in value, monetary policy is unlikely to bring additional volatility. This Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the latest NFP data. Unless there is a significant deviation from expectations, risk assets will maintain their trend. Beyond that, the cryptocurrency’s performance relative to NDX remains affected by ETF flows. Although BTC saw a significant decline on Sunday, the long green candle yesterdays repaired the losses. BTC maintains low volatility most of the time. Judging from the WTA indicator, the blue column representing the whale has not participated in transactions in the past week. Like trading volume, WTA also reflects market downturns. The ME indicator maintains the bearish trend. To sum up, we believe that the recent performance of BTC will still be dominated by fluctuation. In the short term, it will be determined by the capital flow of BTC ETF, and in the medium term, it will be determined by the amount of funds released after the monetary policy turns to loosening. We maintain last week’s resistance level 62000 and support level 52500.by Sypool0
Sept 2Overview: Labor Day is over, and yesterday the bulls came out strong, pushing COINBASE:BTCUSD back into its trading range, above the $58.4k level. But whose bulls were they—American or Asian? Volume data from Coinbase shows 4.3k for the BTC/USD pair, compared to 10.7k, 8.5k, and 12.1k over the last three Mondays. These numbers are much higher than those for the BTC/USDT pair, indicating it wasn't American bulls who saved the day. On the other hand, Binance reports higher numbers for the BTC/USDT pair, with 23k, 19.4k, 22.8k, and 37.0k for the last three Mondays. Two lessons learned: 1. Check the provider of your chart data and what pair you are analyzing, especially if you're tracking volume or any volume-related indicators such as Volume-Weighted Average Price, volume profile, footprint, cumulative volume delta, etc. 2. The U.S. market honors workdays. Asian bulls came in strong and overpowered the bears. W: Back to the old trading range. Neutral. D: Under BB MA. Possible fake breakout (or fake recovery due to the U.S. holiday?). We'll find out today when the U.S. market opens in a couple of hours. 4h: It was the 5th attempt to break the BB MA, and it succeeded. Now we're at the top of the BB channel, above the most recent high but stalling at the next one, near the point of control. Neutral. 1h: MACD divergence is starting to appear. Bearish. Alts relative to BTC: Altcoin weakness compared to BTC continues to widen. BTC returned to its trading range, and on the daily chart, it looks like a bear trap. However, for major altcoins like COINBASE:ETHUSD , COINBASE:SOLUSD , and COINBASE:SUIUSD , their previous levels have become resistance. Neutral on BTC, bearish on altcoins. Bull case: Since we're holding the weekly range and a bear trend isn't confirmed (at least in the short term), stay bullish. Bear case: Altcoins are weaker, volume is low due to Labor Day, so Asian bulls were pushing up in a less liquid market. Fear and Greed Index: 46.78. Up a couple of points. Neutral. Prediction: The Fed has been revising many data points downward, indicating they might not fully understand what's happening, leading to a lack of trust in their estimates. This week's jobs data might come out much lower, which, combined with other factors, could crash the market. However, before that, we still have a full day of trading during which BTC might trade higher.by EvgenCapital1
The trigger level for the next big run for #Bitcoin is 69k!The trigger level for the next big run for #Bitcoin is 69k! #btc will start to enter the mega bull radar as of Q4!by EtherNasyonaL4
September 2 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello It's a Bitcoinguide. If you have a "follower" You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections. If my analysis is helpful, Please would like one booster button at the bottom. This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart. Today, Nasdaq is closed. It touched 57K on Sunday evening and barely reached the center line of the Bollinger Band 4-hour chart. The current position is a section where long and short are decided, and a short position operating section. Today's strategy was created based on the vertical decline in the gap reversal that occurred at the top over the weekend and the short-term pattern of Tether Dominance was broken. * In the case of the red finger movement path Long position strategy 1. 57,982 dollars long position entry section / cut-off price when the purple support line is broken 2. 59,160 dollars long position 1st target -> Top 2nd target When the 1st section shown at the bottom is touched, it is a very horizontal guarantee The sky blue support line Bottom section is the last double bottom. If this section is broken, a downward trend may be connected from the second section of the Jinpa-rang support line, so it may open up to 54.8K. Today, it is important to not go down to the bottom section or break away, right? Up to this point, I ask that you just use my analysis as a reference, and I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices. Thank you. Longby BitCoinGuideUpdated 6