Ranging from 108k to 92k until 2025My prediction is that the cup and handle pattern play out similar to this fashion along the blue lines that I've created; ranging from 108k through 92k until ~ January 5th +/-.
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bitcoins Bext Big Price MoveBitcoin’s price action is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the key points marked as A ($103,900), B ($92,400), C ($101,400) , and D ($94,600) , indicating a period of consolidation as buyers and sellers struggle for control. Notably, the price recently bounced off the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $94k , a critical support zone that aligns with the lower boundary of the triangle. Below this, the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $86.6k serves as the next significant support, while a break of this level could open the door to deeper downside risks. On the upside, a breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline, currently near $100k , could propel Bitcoin toward its next major target at $130k , aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. The tightening price range within the triangle and declining volume suggest a major breakout is imminent, with traders closely watching for a decisive move in either direction. Given Bitcoin's historical behavior, the breakout direction could set the tone for its trend over the coming weeks. Microsoft is voting on purchasing bitcoin tomorrow, and the results from this and Amazon's vote later on could effect the direction of this breakout.
Bitcoin percentage dropAs you can see here, Bitcoin crashed or corrected over 70% during that time frame, albeit it recovered, these types of crashes shake out those who are not real investors. Albeit has since recovered and roared higher to new all time highs (over $100,000) its wise to make sure you're in it for the long haul.
Bitcoin is not done, big green candle comingThis is not the end. The fear this little dip brought across the market will scare lots of investors and traders. Those shorting here will be in for some pain as bitcoin break ATH either this candle or the next.
BTC long ▶️BTC/USD Weekly Analysis 🟠:
The price remains above key EMA levels (10, 20, 50, 100, 200), confirming a solid upward trend.
The EMA 20 ($95,458) appears to be the nearest support zone in the event of a deeper correction.
EMA 50 ($89,623) serves as a critical support level for the long-term trend.
▶️BTC/USD Daily Analysis 🟠:
BTC is pulling back from recent highs, likely testing the EMA 10 ($97,843). A break below this level could lead the price toward the EMA 20 ($95,458).
Trading volumes remain elevated, signaling the potential for a stronger move in the coming days.
If the EMA 20 holds, a localized bounce to the upside is expected.
📢Conclusion:
BTC is consolidating below the EMA 10 and may continue its correction toward EMA 20 or EMA 50 before resuming its upward trajectory. Mid-term prospects remain bullish as long as the price stays above EMA 50. However, the current correction requires close monitoring.
Bitcoin just dropped nicely to the support area#Bitcoin
Daily TF , left picture & 4H TF , right picture
Cause we are in a bull run then holding the 20MA on daily is important, so nothing changed yet.
As you see there are also multiple support at 95k - 96k and its holding still fine on 4hour 👌
So be relax as everything still is ok.
Trading notice :
If bitcoin lose 95k ( which is unlikely) then we need to analyse it again.
Good luck
BGC 🤝
Possible ENDING DIAGONAL in wave 4Ending diagonal for finish the correction in wave 4, this structure is characterized by being a 5 waver where every wave is subdivided in 3 waves of lower degree!
The objectives would be touching the Monthly open or even better the PoC ( all market with a green rectangle)
BTC Retrace inbound, heres how Im gonna play itFirst off I'd like to disclose my bias, I am a huge proponent of BTC, I personally have some ~75% of my assets allocated in Bitcoin and Bitcoin adjacent securities. That being said, I don't want it to go down, but when the game is money I just gotta go with the flow...
As of late BTC has been following an Elliot Wave pattern to the T. We've already crossed through the impulsive move up, waves 1-5 have been completed as shown with the Red and Green mountain I constructed to the left of the actual chart. Now were moving into the Corrective Move.
You'll notice that the Elliot Wave's 3 through B portion looks near identical to the Head and Shoulders pattern, that's because they're the same thing. I dont think I need to explain why BTC is well due for a retrace, but just in case Ill summarize.
Over the past few months(weeks really) BTC has gone up a staggering 70%, the entire duration of that period it was stimulated by strong, yet short term market hype and financial adoption as a fiduciary standard. While I believe that this process is only just in the earliest stages, with analyst predicting prices of 120k, 150k, 200k and beyond within the next 2-10 years it would appear i'm not the only one. In any case, very rarely is it a straight shot to the moon, the clap back is inevitable, and as BTC has been riding along the upper band of Bollinger and Kelter indicators this whole time anyone could have told you that.
In any case, back to the play....
BTC is currently in the first part of the corrective move, it's making a heavy retrace back to a near support level at around 90k. While a 103k to 90k drop would've been well sufficient for me to play off of, I want the big bucks, so instead were using this first tentative minor retrace as another confirmation signal.
What happens next is that we climb back up to create the "right shoulder" reaching peak "B" and using that as our last and final entry signal.
Depending on your appetite risk, you can either play this as I do, with a put spread, or just sell your shares. However what I do suggest you do not do, is simply hold through it all. If your on trading view, your either an avid trader or trying to become one, riding through the shit storm like a sitting duck is a passive course of action that will get you to where your headed, albeit very very slowly.
I took my analysis a step forward, I recognize that knowing 'if' a currency/security will go down is not a difficult thing to do. The trick is predicting 'when'. The catch is that predicting that aspect is almost always what gets people burned. That being said, my prediction is that we'll see the B peak/right shoulder around the 24th of December give or take 2 days.
I used very rudimentary means to get that figure, typically in a item like this well see a slower retrace and a quick upwards motion. Looking at how long it took to get from peak 3 to 5, IE the left shoulder to the head, we can get an estimate for how long it would take to get from the 5 to B.
That figure was 16 days, add in a little buffer zone for posterity, and boom 16 days from our peak at 103k is Dec 24th.
For the spread play I have cookin' I have a few specific criteria that need to be met otherwise I wont enter and will instead opt to simply short shares:
- I want a sub 60% IV, if it gets much higher than that, the premium will push the breakeven too far from the strike and the contract wont be viable.
- If the retrace were in the midst of right now doesnt fall to 90k or close to it, that means that any final drop-off after the 24th will likely be too drawn out for Theta to make it worthwhile.
- The B peak is missed, I will only buy my puts on an upwards swing because that will decrease the contract cost significantly. Christmas is the 25th and a Wednesday, however options and stock markets will be closed that day, meaning if BTC makes its final peak anywhere from the 21st 22nd, 25th, and 28th to 29th. We won't be able to do shit other than watch...
I personally will be using Greyscales IBIT spot ETF, I think this is one of the better BTC security alternatives to use as they give weekly expirations and their BTC price is easily calculable as nearly 1:1756 of BTC's actual price(not 100% accurate but its close).
If you look at my chart you can see I've disclosed certain zones that I predict BTC will fall into in the following weeks aswell as the nearest expiry dates to them. I've already let this idea go on for far too long and im frankly getting horny at the thought of how much money Im gonna make.
Here's the spread I plan on entering, however this is still temporary and subject to change as we get closer to the final day.
IBIT 55.5P 01/03/25
IBIT 55.0P 01/10/25
IBIT 53.0P 01/10/25
IBIT 53.0P 01/17/25
Most of those expiration dates have been given an additional week buffer. I personally have enough capitol to where it doesnt matter much what I buy so long as I get any percentage return Ill be happy... make those shorter dated as you wish, but dont come back cryin' when you burn yourself.
Happy hunting, and merry Christmas!!
BITCOIN - RETRACEMENT OVERDUE??Bitcoin had hit the 100k-104k threshold and is due for some retracement. All Price Objectives have been met except for that of Cup & Handle Pattern. But before edging to 125k PA is beginning to show some signs of retracement. My favorite pattern is in play again and thus we could see Bitcoin drop to as low as 87k in the coming days or week.
On the other hand USDT. Dominance chart has Completed its PO for broadening wedge and has shown some signs to rebound though yet to break downward channel to the upside. Guess investors are cashing out profits for Xmas. (See next post).
BITCOIN // before breakout?A countertrend on H4 is valid, but the daily and the H4 impulse base shows long trend, so I'm preparing for a possible north breakout.
If the daily impulse base falls, triggers for shorts may be found at the H4 impulse base.
The green zone is the place where it might be rewarding to look for long triggers, because that is where the countertrend breaks.
———
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined! 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
The reason why BTC will hit $100,000 soonBitcoin started a bull cycle on 2023 and now has finished a lateral zone creating an expanding triangle, which is a sign of continuation for trends.
Taking into account that we are just doing new highs, this can be crazy, but the $100k target will be soon.
How to trade BTC now?
Buying BTC now can be hard because a pullback can hit hard to your account.
Maybe the best you can do is to wait for a pullback to the 70k$ zone where the support zone is located. This kind of expanding triangle usually has pullbacks, so pray to have your opportunity!
Buying in the 70-73k$ zone means that a stop loss at a 15% is quite safe, so you can earn easily 50% by risking just 15% of your investment.
This kind of 3x return/risk is waht you should seek for your trading account ;)
For more Trading ideas
Feel free to follow me to see more ideas with high return/risk ratio, like the one in Tesla with over x10 return/risk ratio!
Educational Video Showing a scalping trade at pullback In BTCUSDA educational video showing how you must enter a trade after a pullback or when you miss a entry in trade .
Also , I have shown how you must hold on a trade after you have achieved your first target
Also , I have shown how you can activate settings in trading view which displays how much money you will lose on a stop loss and how much you achieve when you achieve your target
Btc sell zonesMissed buy setup by 100 pips rocketed 2500,so we identified two sell zones.One mid risk and stronger set up
BTC USD UpdateIf we zoom out and give the chart some breathing room, I would hold my stop loss under 90682.58, just in case these market makers decide to go for another swing higher. I have my spot positions loaded there, but sadly, last week my swings were stopped out at 100K. This chart is unpredictable and doesn't seem to follow fundamentals; it makes magical moves, so it's pointless to assume we should sell just yet. The weekly low is still holding as of now.
BTC and the end of 2024... Intense So there are 22 days left to accumulate in 2024. Will we break out, break down or find a tight range? I think volatility be great so we might do all that! I only accumulate bitcoin. Use alts to pay bills but this my jive. Speaking of, anyone out there have experience with bitaxe 601 mini miners? Thats my only item on my Christmas list thus far. lol
**Bitcoin’s Path Beyond $100K: Is the Bull Market at a Crossroad
Bitcoin’s historic surge past $100,000 has ignited intense debate among market analysts, as shifting dynamics in long-term and retail activity reshape the landscape. While retail demand continues to buoy BTC’s price, data shows a significant shift among long-term holders, who have sold approximately 828,000 BTC—worth over $82 billion—within the past 30 days.
This unprecedented selling activity, primarily by those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more, has raised questions about the sustainability of the current bull run. Analysts are divided: some argue the influx of retail demand will maintain upward momentum, while others warn that declining liquidity and increasing selling pressure could signal a market cooldown.
As the debate unfolds, traders closely monitor whether Bitcoin's strong retail demand can outpace the effects of long-term holders exiting positions. Is this consolidation a healthy pause or a sign of potential turbulence ahead? The coming weeks may determine if Bitcoin’s rally has more fuel to climb higher or is nearing a turning point.
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin – Issue 225A analyst predicts that the price of Bitcoin will decrease in the next 24 hours. This forecast is based on a quantitative analysis of recent price trends.
is a flat forming?As I mentioned in the last update, Bit finished its first leg(a) under 100k, and now it's time to rest for a while(until January 18-20) as b(like a flat maybe). Then, 135-140k will be accessible!
BTCUSD Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each:
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1. Order Blocks
An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement.
Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement.
Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement.
How to use:
Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend.
Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones.
Example:
If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block.
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2. Imbalances
An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure.
These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third.
It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement.
How to use:
Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones.
Enter a position when the gap is filled.
Example:
In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area.
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3. Breaker Blocks
A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken."
Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement.
They can also be used to filter valid order blocks.
How to use:
After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest.
Used to identify trend reversals.
Example:
In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block.
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4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap)
An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement.
An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal.
It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap."
How to use:
Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal.
Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses.
Example:
In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward.
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Conclusion
Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market.
Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply.
Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically.
These elements are especially useful for traders following SMC principles, as they provide a deeper understanding of the actions of major market participants.
December 6 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
Nasdaq indicators will be announced at 10:30 in a little while.
It is currently in the 12 + daily pattern section.
It touched the upper side first,
and the 6-hour chart MACD dead cross pressure is in progress.
*Blue finger
Two-way neutral
Long->Short->Long switching strategy.
1. 97,065 dollars long position entry section / When the purple support line is completely broken
or when the 2nd section is touched, stop loss price
2. 101,511.5 dollars long position 1st target -> Top 2nd -> Good 3rd target
The 1st section at the top
is a short position entry point, but there is also a possibility of a breakthrough,
and since the 6-hour chart MACD dead cross is in progress on the Nasdaq,
I started with a safe long wait.
(Proceed from short->long->short->long to long->short->long.)
If the strategy is successful, the first section is the section to re-enter the long position.
I think you can trade autonomously.
The orange resistance line 1 / green support line 2 convergence section is a sideways market
From the bottom to 89.1K
It is a major rebound section until today. (Bollinger Band daily chart support line)
If you drag up and down,
You can check the major sections and prices.
Please use my analysis up to this point as a reference only
I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you for your hard work this week.
BTC’s chilling near $98,356—will it bounce back or take a dive? The market right now is looking a bit shaky, with prices moving downward but showing signs of stabilization near key support levels. BTC is currently trading at $98,773, which is slightly above the EMA 200 ($98,356), a crucial level to watch. If it holds, there’s a chance for a bounce, but if it breaks, we could see more selling pressure.
The MACD is deep in negative territory, showing that bears are still in control. The RSI is sitting at 42, not quite oversold yet, but it’s worth keeping an eye on—if it dips below 30, we might get a buying opportunity. Volatility is high (ATR at 703), so expect sharp movements.
Right now, it looks like BTC is stuck between two key zones:
Support: $98,356 (EMA 200 and recent low).
Resistance: $99,311 (EMA 7).
How to Approach It
Option 1: Play the Range
Buy near $98,356 and aim for a quick sell around $99,000-$99,311 if the price rebounds. But if it starts slipping below support, cut losses quickly.
Option 2: Wait for a Breakout
If the price breaks above $99,173 with strong volume, that could be a signal to go long, targeting $100,000 or higher.
On the flip side, if it drops below $98,462, it’s likely heading toward $98,000 or even lower.
Big Picture
The market feels uncertain, so keep your trades small and focus on managing risk. Watch for confirmation signals like a MACD crossover or a bounce on RSI before jumping in. This isn’t the time to be overly aggressive—play it smart and let the market show its hand.
Bitcoin - Bitcoin finally reached 6 digits!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. risk ON sntiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the failure of the resistance zone. After the authentic failure of this area, we will see Bitcoin reach the ceiling of the channel.
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The target of this downward movement will be the level of 90 thousand dollars.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
Last week, Donald Trump appointed Paul Atkins as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a decision that sparked mixed reactions. Hester Peirce, popularly known as the “Crypto Mom,” expressed her strong support for Atkins to replace the current SEC chairman, Gary Gensler. She stated, “Based on my previous experience working with him in this organization, I can’t imagine a better candidate for this position.”
Meanwhile, Caroline Crenshaw, a current member of the SEC, has been nominated for another term and now awaits Senate confirmation. If approved, she will serve on the commission until 2029. During her tenure, Crenshaw has taken a notably strict stance on cryptocurrencies, earning a reputation for being even tougher than Gary Gensler. One key point of contention is her opposition to approving Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). In a letter dated January 2024, she cited concerns such as investor protection and market manipulation as reasons for her dissent. These views have led some to label her as the primary adversary of the crypto industry.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs now hold over one million bitcoins, surpassing the holdings of Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Within less than a year, these funds have become the largest bitcoin holders in the world.
Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary, told Bloomberg that the idea of establishing strategic bitcoin reserves is “ridiculous.” However, he welcomed efforts to regulate the crypto space and foster financial innovation. Summers also expressed skepticism about reducing government spending through the Productivity Department, calling it a challenging path.
The performance and weekly and annual returns of major Layer 1 cryptocurrencies are shown in the accompanying chart. Meanwhile, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, appeared in a Paris court to face charges of facilitating illegal activities through his messaging app. Durov, who was temporarily detained on August 24, was released after posting a $6 million bail but has been barred from leaving France until March 2025. French prosecutors have accused him of running a platform that aids illicit activities. If convicted, Durov could face up to 10 years in prison and a fine of €500,000. This case has raised concerns about privacy-focused technologies in the Web3 space.
At the same time, the number of cryptocurrency wallets with non-zero balances has reached 400 million. Michael Saylor, the CEO of Microstrategy, recently shared his proposed bitcoin purchasing strategy with crypto enthusiasts. He reiterated that bitcoin should be considered a long-term asset and advocated for using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for sustainable growth.
Saylor, one of bitcoin’s most prominent supporters, stated that for the past four years, he has consistently advised investors to “buy bitcoin and never sell.” He emphasized that bitcoin should be held as a long-term capital asset rather than a short-term profit tool. Saylor recommended that investors enter the market every three months using funds they do not need and hold the investment for at least ten years. He also stressed that investors should not worry about short-term volatility and should avoid stress by adhering to this strategy.
The trading volume of spot cryptocurrencies reached $2.7 trillion last month, marking the highest level since May 2021. A new survey revealed that over 80% of cryptocurrency holders admitted that their investment decisions were influenced by emotions like Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). The survey, which included 1,248 participants, showed that 84% invested due to FOMO and 81% due to FUD.
Kraken Exchange commented that the findings suggest many investors trade based on emotions and fears rather than logical strategies. These emotions often stem from misunderstandings or mistrust about the future of specific cryptocurrencies. The survey also revealed that FOMO drives investors to chase rising prices, while only 17% focus on buying opportunities during price drops. Interestingly, 63% of cryptocurrency holders acknowledged
