Bitcoin Looks Shortable, But I’m Staying Out—Here’s WhyBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is presenting a textbook short setup. The composition on the 4-hour timeframe looks nearly perfect for a short trade, and for the day, one could craft a compelling shortable strategy. However, despite my analysis, I am making the rare decision not to enter this trade.
The short setup: a perfect storm?
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is flashing bearish signals. Momentum indicators are showing weakness, volume profiles suggest exhaustion, and key resistance levels seem to be holding. In a vacuum, this setup looks ideal for a profitable short position.
But trading isn’t just about technical analysis—it’s about understanding the broader market psychology and risk dynamics.
The risk of shorting bitcoin right now
The reason I’m sitting this one out is simple: betting against Bitcoin is like betting against the entire world.
1. The Supply Squeeze Effect – The long-term macro trend for BTC is that supply is constantly decreasing. With halvings reducing new issuance and institutions accumulating, the fundamental picture favors long-term scarcity.
2. Everyone Wants a Dip to Buy – Shorting BTC means betting that people won’t step in to buy the dip. However, history has shown time and time again that Bitcoin has a dedicated base of believers who aggressively accumulate whenever there’s weakness.
3. “No Bitcoin Left” Narrative – The idea that eventually there will be no more BTC available for easy purchase is gaining traction. In such an environment, shorting is not just risky—it’s dangerous.
Sometimes, the best trade is no trade
It’s frustrating to see a clear short setup and yet hold back from executing. But trading is not just about being right—it’s about managing risk. And in this case, the risk of being on the wrong side of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory outweighs the short-term setup.
There’s an old saying: “The best trades are sometimes the ones you never make.” Today, this is one of those moments.
For now, I’ll watch from the sidelines. But if Bitcoin proves me wrong and drops anyway, I won’t have any regrets—I’ll just be reminded that in trading, discipline is more valuable than being right.
