Bitcoin Intraday ScenarioBitcoin bearish movement + flag pattern = Bearish continuation
82k is programmed
BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bitcoin - Shot-Term Relief Rally to $88k?Pay close attention to bitcoin and the stock index markets. In the past, we have seen closer and closer correlation between the higher timeframe movements of both markets, noticeably Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
Low hanging fruits is important here as we are still trading inside of a range but with the high impact news events releasing this week, its possible for a bullish draw to FWB:88K
Bitcoin Buy Setup, share your thoughts in comments..Hi there, hope your re doing well, I have come up with this idea for Bitcoin let me know what are your thoughts about this
I have depicted this chart for Bitcoin Buy setup as you can see it in the chart or read below in the description.
Trend: The price was in a bullish trend before experiencing a sell retracement.
Breakouts: Marked are by yellow circles, showing strong price movements.
Support & Demand: Support at 84,300, with a demand zone below (around 81,000).
Resistance: 86,800 marked as a resistance level.
Trade Setup: Suggested buy at 84,300, targeting 86,00 as take profit (TP).
Outlook: The price is moving back into an uptrend, with potential upside if support holds.
Key levels;
Buy Entry from 84,300
Take Profit 1 _ 85,100
Take Profit 2 _ 86,000
Stop Loss at 83,600
Always know this is for educational purposes only not trading advice.
Trade at your own risk.
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(Part 2) TUTORIAL: How To Use Open Interest to Find Pivot PointsIn this video I demonstrate directly why VARA network is NOT diluted. This is open for discussion as you may prove me wrong, I just am not seeing it.
Macro thoughts 2025Based on the RSI and where we are with price on BTC, I think it’s important to more closely look at the bond market and equities. And overall how we look structurally within the macro economy. Biggest concern is the 12/25 MA bands have not began to compress. Compression before expansion typically.
Now we could range within these level and began to compress the bands. If the bands do not began to compress and remain expanded, risk would be played better to the downside for now to the 73k level. On the flip side if we see upwards price action and compression of the bands this will lead us to rally higher to possible ATH.
Use the information given to you by price and overall structure to map out where we might be headed and then let price do it’s thing. And position yourself to where you least amount of negative risk.
BTC Daily AnalysisPrice has been forming a bearish flag pattern and it may bounce around in the parallel channel before making any significant move towards either side. But, based on the bearish momentum over the last couple of weeks and the previous daily, it is increasingly likely that the next move could be downwards at the break of this channel.
Sell in May, if you're g....ame to miss out.
Bitcoin needs to reach a 60 day cycle high above $90k AND close the next 60 day cycle above ~84k to stand a chance at keeping hopes for a right-translated cycle alive.
Failure to do this will make the previous top of $109k look much stronger as the left-translated cycle top and crush many dreams.
Even if momentum for a right-translated top stays alive through these targets in the 60 day cycle, most people are delusional calling for highs of $169k - $250k, these expectations are baked in and will likely not be reached--too much complacency on these price targets.
If we do see a right-translated cycle top towards November of this year, it's likely the top will be just barely higher than previous ATH and crush many expectations. Many will fail to take profits and will get stuck bag-holding for 4 years.
BTC & Global M2 Correlation Here we have Fin Global M2 with 107 days offset and BTC on the daily. Tracks very nicely and offers an interesting perspective. What are your thoughts? Cheers!
Bitcoin is Approaching a Critical Moment!Bitcoin is testing a potential breakout from a descending wedge that began forming on January 20th. For the bulls to take control, BTC needs to close above $86,831 by the end of Monday, March 24th. A successful break and hold above this level could signal a strong upward move.
On the flip side, failure to break out may lead to a drop toward $76,817, a key support level from March 11th. If this support fails, the next significant level to watch is $69,665—a critical resistance Bitcoin overcame last year on November 6th before its prior rally. The next few days will be pivotal for determining BTC’s direction. Stay tuned for the Monday close!
Bitcoin is Approaching a Critical Moment!Bitcoin is testing a potential breakout from a descending wedge that began forming on January 20th. For the bulls to take control, BTC needs to close above $86,831 by the end of Monday, March 24th. A successful break and hold above this level could signal a strong upward move.
On the flip side, failure to break out may lead to a drop toward $76,817, a key support level from March 11th. If this support fails, the next significant level to watch is $69,665—a critical resistance Bitcoin overcame last year on November 6th before its prior rally. The next few days will be pivotal for determining BTC’s direction. Stay tuned for the Monday close!
Bitcoin is Approaching a Critical Moment!Bitcoin is testing a potential breakout from a descending wedge that began forming on January 20th. For the bulls to take control, BTC needs to close above $86,831 by the end of Monday, March 24th. A successful break and hold above this level could signal a strong upward move.
On the flip side, failure to break out may lead to a drop toward $76,817, a key support level from March 11th. If this support fails, the next significant level to watch is $69,665—a critical resistance Bitcoin overcame last year on November 6th before its prior rally. The next few days will be pivotal for determining BTC’s direction. Stay tuned for the Monday close!
short opportunity playing out for BTCplease see chart with relevant fib levels, strong support around $70k- FWB:73K where target 1 is. Confluence with current price action, fib levels, projected fib levels of recent move with likely 1.618 target for c wave down
BTC long opp continuation of prior trade ideas at $70kplease see chart text for greater details. Multiple confluence indicating btc will correct to approx $70k area. Strong prior support from 2021 bull market. Fib projection levels and ABC elliott wave correction.
BTCUSD UPWARD TREND UPCOMING READ IN CAPTIONS BULLISHThe chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, displaying a clear bearish channel with an expected reversal towards higher levels. Here’s the detailed analysis:
Key Observations:
1. Bearish Channel: The price is currently inside a bearish channel marked by blue trendlines, where the price has been making lower highs and lower lows. This indicates that the current trend is bearish, but there are signs of a possible reversal at certain levels.
2. FVG (Fair Value Gap): The FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone is marked just above the support, suggesting an area of imbalance in market orders. The price is expected to fill this gap before continuing its bullish move. If the price stays above this gap, it could act as a support level.
3. Order Block: An order block is indicated at the top of the chart, suggesting that the price could potentially face resistance in this area. If the price manages to break through the resistance at this level, the bullish momentum could intensify.
4. Target: The target is set at 86,134, which is just above the current price level. If the price manages to break through the upper boundary of the channel and fill the FVG, it could move toward this target.5. Price Action: The price is currently bouncing around the FVG area, indicating that buyers may step in here, creating a potential opportunity to go long. The next step is to watch for a breakout above the resistance zone to confirm the continuation of the bullish move toward the target.
Conclusion:
The chart suggests that Bitcoin is currently in a bearish channel but could soon reverse if the price holds above the FVG zone around 84,100. A bullish breakout above the order block would likely lead to an upward movement, with the target at 86,134 in sight. Traders should monitor price action around the FVG gap and the order block for potential entry points.
$BTC Battle at 200DMA - Bullish DivergenceThe 200DMA is the real battle for bulls and bears rn.
At least PA is respecting my squiggles 😊
Bullish Divergence is the key here.
BTC/GOLDIt looks like btc got blocked by the last ATH comparing to gold. but we still holding on above the support line. also we just closed the FVG and we are close to OB under the FVG if we break it. Lets see how it develops
Secure profits of LONGBTCUSD Chart Analysis (Daily Timeframe)
1. Securing the Last LONG Position
The last LONG position should be secured in profit because:
Price failed to sustain higher levels and is now rejecting resistance.
If the price drops further, it could trigger a deeper correction.
The risk-to-reward ratio shifts once key support levels start failing, making holding a long position less favorable.
Locking in profits prevents giving back gains if price reverses.
2. Why This Is the MAX Risk Point for a New Short
🚨 A new SHORT signal has NOT yet been given, but if it prints, we must wait for the daily close to confirm it.
Key reasons why this is the max risk point:
✅ Price is still within a key decision zone (near support and trendline levels).
✅ If price bounces and holds above current levels, shorts would be trapped.
✅ Shorting prematurely without a confirmed close could result in a fakeout.
✅ Stochastic Indicator is still crossing up, meaning a bounce could occur before confirmation.
3. Short Confirmation & Timing Considerations
📌 If a SHORT signal appears, DO NOT enter immediately. Instead:
Wait for the daily close → Confirms that price sustains bearish momentum.
Watch for key breakdown levels → If price stays below support zones at ~80,000 - 86,000, bearish continuation is likely.
Check volume confirmation → A high-volume breakdown strengthens the short thesis.
Conclusion
⚠️ Right now, we are at a decision point:
If the price holds above current support, another move up is possible.
If a SHORT signal is printed, we still wait for the daily close to confirm.
Max risk for a new short is NOW, because shorting too early without confirmation could lead to a reversal.
💡 Patience is key—wait for the right signal before entering! 🚀
Current Price Context
BTCUSD is trading at ~$84,380, showing a -2.81% daily decline.
Price recently failed to break above key resistance (~86,000–88,000 zone).
Volume is slightly increasing on the downside, indicating some seller momentum.
The Stochastic RSI is still crossing up, meaning there is a chance for a bounce, but it is approaching a critical zone.
Most Probable Next Scenario (Scale of 1-10)
🔴 Bearish Breakdown: 7.5/10
🟢 Bullish Bounce: 2.5/10
**Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) – 7.5/10
If price closes below ~$84,000, this will confirm a breakdown of key intraday support.
Next major support zones:
$80,000 (psychological and technical support)
$73,000 – $72,000 (strong demand & historical support)
$65,400 (worst-case bearish scenario in the near term)
Key Reasons for Bearish Bias:
✅ Failure to hold higher levels → Bears are in control.
✅ Trendline resistance rejection → Price rejected a major downtrend.
✅ Bearish order flow on volume → Sellers are stepping in.
✅ No new long confirmations → Momentum fading.
✅ Potential lower high structure forming → Could lead to further downside.
📌 If the daily closes red and under support (~84,000), a move towards 80,000 is highly probable.
**Bullish Bounce (Less Likely) – 2.5/10
If BTCUSD manages to reclaim ~$86,000 and sustain, bulls could attempt another push.
Resistance levels to watch:
$86,000 → Short-term reclaim level.
$88,000 - $92,000 → Key breakout zone.
$99,800 - $107,000 → Longer-term bullish targets.
What Would Change the Bias to Bullish?
❌ Price MUST reclaim $86,000+ with high volume.
❌ A strong daily close above $88,000 would confirm bullish continuation.
❌ Short squeeze event leading to a big move up.
📌 Until these conditions are met, the bullish scenario remains unlikely.
Final Thoughts
Bearish breakdown is more likely (7.5/10 probability).
If BTC closes today under $84,000, expect a move to $80,000-$73,000.
A bullish reversal is unlikely unless BTC reclaims $86,000+ convincingly.
No new SHORT signal has printed yet, but if it does, wait for the daily close to confirm.
📢 Trading Plan:
1️⃣ If price breaks down below $84,000 and closes red, SHORT confirmations are strong.
2️⃣ If BTCUSD holds $84,000 and reclaims $86,000, potential bounce.
3️⃣ Wait for daily close confirmation before making high-risk trades.
🚀 Most probable next move: More downside towards $80,000 unless bulls reclaim key resistance.
Key Factors That Could Trigger a Drop Below $70K
🔴 1. Major Support Breakdown ($80K → $72K → FWB:65K )
If $80,000 fails, BTC is likely to retest $72K– FWB:73K , a historically strong support level.
If $72K fails, the next major demand zone is $65,400.
Below $65,000, panic could set in, leading to a cascade of liquidations.
📉 Critical Breakdown Levels Below $70K:
$72,000–$73,000 (historical demand, strong support)
$65,400 (deep correction support)
$55,000–$58,000 (absolute worst-case scenario in a full-blown market panic)
🔴 2. Leverage Wipeout & Liquidation Cascade
BTC is heavily leveraged. A sharp drop below $80K–$72K could trigger mass liquidations, accelerating the decline.
Whales may intentionally push price below key liquidation levels to wipe out overleveraged longs before rebuying lower.
🔴 3. Macro & Sentiment Shifts
If stocks crash, inflation fears rise, or interest rates stay high, BTC could suffer from risk-off sentiment.
If major institutions or miners start selling, BTC could dip below $70K temporarily before stabilizing.
Probability of a Drop Below $70K?
Short-term (1-2 weeks): 3.5/10 (Unlikely but possible if BTC fails $72K).
Medium-term (1-2 months): 5.5/10 (More likely if macro conditions worsen).
Black Swan Event: 8/10 (If panic liquidations hit, BTC could momentarily dip to FWB:65K or even $58K).
Bottom Line:
⚠️ BTC remains at risk for deeper corrections.
✅ Below $80K, expect increased volatility & potential $72K retest.
✅ If BTC loses $72K, sub-$70K becomes a real possibility.
✅ Only a major liquidation cascade would push BTC towards FWB:65K –$58K.
🚨 If price action weakens, be prepared for rapid downside acceleration!
4HOURS BTC/USD It seems my analysis indicating that BTC will UPSupport Held Strong – The price has tested the support zone multiple times (around $82,000), showing signs of buying pressure.
Reversal Pattern – The higher low (LH) formation suggests that sellers are weakening, and buyers are gaining control.
Projected Bullish Move –
The chart outlines a breakout scenario with an upward trajectory.
The target zone is around $91,000 - $94,000, based on the green box marking a potential take-profit area.
ITS NOT FINANCAIL ADVISE
BTCUSD PUUL BACK Double Top Resistance Could Trigger a Reversal
The chart assumes a breakout, but a double top is typically a bearish pattern. If price gets rejected at this resistance, it could signal a strong downtrend instead of the projected bullish move.
Support Might Not Hold
The analysis assumes a bounce from support, but price recently dropped aggressively to that level. If buyers fail to hold, a break below support could push price lower toward $83,200 or even $81,200.
Bearish Volume Presence
The recent large red candles show strong selling pressure. This could indicate that sellers are in control, and any upward move might just be a bull trap before further downside.
Resistance Overhead is Strong
The resistance zone around $86,400-$87,200 is a major supply zone. Even if price moves up, sellers could aggressively step in at that level, limiting upside potential.
BITCOIN approaching the critical 1day MA50 test.Bitcoin / BTCUSD has found the support it desperately needed on the 1week MA50 and rebounded.
Now it faces the most important Resistance of its Cycle, the 1day MA50.
Every time this broke in the last 2 years, the market started a strong rally.
Buy and target 140000, which would be just under the Pi Cycle Top.
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BTC: Capture buying opportunities accurately📍Fundamentals: From a macro perspective, with increased government endorsement, cryptocurrencies are gaining greater credibility and popularity in the market.
📍Technical Analysis:The downward momentum of BTC is showing signs of exhaustion, with multiple rebounds forming a structural bottom that provides strong support. Overall, the bullish trend remains intact. The key support zone to monitor is 83000-82000.
📌If BTC fails to break below this level in the short term, a rebound is likely, with upside potential targeting the 88000-89000 range.
🔎Trade Idea:
BTCUSD: Buy at 83000-82000
Target (TP):88000-89000
Stop Loss (SL):Adjust according to risk tolerance.
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Bear flag alert!!!Bear flag on the 1hr chart. We can see a drop into 80-82k range before we see the break through of 80k.
BTCUSD: Staying bullish with this breakthrough analysis.Bitcoin remains marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.889, MACD = -2304.900, ADX = 28.298) as it erased yesterday's Fed gains. Nevertheless, this doesn't make us lose sight of the bigger picture. On this 1M chart, we have selected all Decembers, as they hold critical importance for BTC Cycles. Both bottoms and tops tend to be priced around them and in between two consolidation phases take place. Don't let the short term volatility cloud your long term perspective. This Cycle hasn't topped yet. Stay bullish.
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