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Long Or Short Crypto Assets? Here's Some Key Factors To Note..Trading Crypto Assets is inherently a 'belief' business. That is why you get some folks who argue its a good investment, others say its complete toilet paper. Whichever way you sit, there is one thing that is really important to understand. Whenever you are buying anything, it is always best done on a reasonable dip. Dips are the only way to gain 'value' on an investment. Statistically, if you pull up any chart, on any asset, high buying (with leverage) will likely cause you to lose money. This is because you either will not have enough equity to sustain a move south, before a continued higher high, or you will trigger a stop loss that is too close. For instance, take the last move (labelled light downtrend). This has been tentative, but had you got long on touches to the lower TL, you would be far better off than those who got long continuously at the upper TL. Because the general market view is slight 'Risk On', you can BTC is not geting slammed nor is it rallying tremendously. It is sitting, like many other risk assets, waiting for a reason to get higher (or lower). This fact is not impacted by the basic rules of making money via business, which is to buy lower, sell higher. These are just facts. Sentiment rules the movement of all Markets in between. Going forward as a comment on the sentiment case, it is likely further Risk-On is going to propel crypto assets, as it often does for equities and other 'risky' investments. This brings me back to the start - it's a belief asset. If you are long you believe in either the crypto case, or the global economy case, both of which are not guaranteed.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by WillSebastian
Bitcoin To $130,000 By January 2025? No! (Read The Description!)Not $130,000 but actually much higher, think more of a price number around $155,000 or even $180,000 - $200,000 if inflation gets out of control, the only part that needs adjustment is the date. Bitcoin is not set to grow, Bitcoin is growing and has been growing long-term. This is something that I cannot argue with and something nobody can or wants to argue with, we all agree. Bitcoin is going up. In 2025, we are not expecting such small targets as $100,000 and $130,000, these are fairly easy numbers and most likely the first major milestones to be hit once the bullish action intensifies around or after March 2025. The mistake would be to think that this type of level can be hit now, in October, November or even December 2024. Bitcoin is still on the path to test Ma 200 as support and with the crash wick, there you have the levels that will activate the major bull-market. For the upcoming bull-market, what should we expect? The top will most likely be a blow-off top. This means that there won't be a long-term double-top as in 2021. Think more of December 2017. This is based on the law of alternation as known from the Elliot Wave principle and also based on past history. So this can make the next bull-market dynamics quite interesting. Here are two scenarios to consider: 1) A blow off stop means one peak and then the start of the next bear-market. If the action starts early, this top can be reached within 5-6 months and thus the end of the bull-market for Bitcoin around April-May-June and then long-term bearish action. Possible but not likely. 2) A blow off top late in 2025. This is more likely since Bitcoin tends to peak, always, late in the bull-market year. This is to give time for the rest of the market to do its thing. Thinking of this, we would have plenty of time for the bullish wave to develop and this would require many, many, months of rising prices, think of a repeat of 2023. Think of Bitcoin going full green and to new ATH late Q1 2025. Then a small correction, sideways for months and more higher prices. We can see 3-7 months of consolidation before the final bull-run. The final bull-run would produce a new All-Time High with a blow off top varying between 155,000$, conservative, and up to $180,000 - $208,000 (inflation/war scenario). This is more in tune with how Bitcoin behaved in the past. LONG Bitcoin after the correction ends. We continue to see lower highs and we are set to experience a lower low next. See Ma 200 on this chart, Bitcoin can produce a strong wick below this level and this would be the long-term correction bottom. After this bottom, we grow again. Patience is key! Thanks again for your continued support. You are appreciated. Thank you for reading. Thanks for your comments. Thanks for your kindness. Thanks for the follow. Thanks for the attention. Thanks for the encouragement. I'll meet on you the next chart. This is Alan Santana. Namaste.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by AlanSantana
32
Let’s look at this STRONG UPTRENDUptrend was broken in August on weekly chart when we broke the support in the name of “yen carry trade”.. news follow technicals in my mind, so that move was in charts already. Since then Bitcoin has attempted to go back above resistance and now meeting double resistance zone, a strong uptrend will start ONLY if we are able to close weekly above 71-73 zone. In a failed attempt, whales will sell hard and we will see near 55-45-40 range before end of year Eg. Mr100 already offloading chunks and have not bought a single in over a month, he is the one who buys daily in uptrend Stay safe out there
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dad-bit
Comparing Current Action to All Historic BTC Breakouts.This post is going to take a look at all of the instances in BTC history of there being a major breakout (This is doable, it's not as many as you may think) and compare the action in those breakouts to the action we have now. Let's first define the action we have now. We can argue all day over different patterns this can be called but there are a few things we can non-subjectively mark out and compare with previous times; - We know there's been a new high. - We know time from the low to high and the time from the high to now (We'll use the ratio). - We know how many lower lows there's been in the drop off the high. And that's it. Really. From a purely objective point of view it's hard to say we know anything else, but these are things we do know and can always know in previous examples. We can look and see how many times this has happened and what happened next. We'll skip out the extreme early days of BTC because the lack of liquidity made it wild and quite meaningless from a TA perspective, but we will look at all the big breakouts from as soon as the chart started to observe structural things we attempt to understand with TA. 1. April 2013 Breakout Breakout Date: April 14, 2013. Price Movement: BTC reached a new high of $259 after a sharp rally from $50. Pullback: 42% retracement to $150 before resuming the uptrend. ]Consolidation vs. Trend Leg: Consolidation lasted 7 days, trend leg lasted 90 days (ratio 1:13). This breakout would have to be said to be unlike current times in all ways. The pullback in it was very brief, came before the new high and there was a run away break on the new high. There was no sequence of lower lows. The pullback time relative to the trend time was also far less. 2. December 2016 Breakout Breakout Date: December 2016. Price Movement: BTC broke above $1,150, continuing up to $1,777. Pullback: 35% retracement from $1,150 to $750. Consolidation vs. Trend Leg: Consolidation lasted 150 days, trend leg lasted 563 days (ratio 1:4). This came off a new high, making it a much more comparable breakout than the previous one. But the pullback and trend was a much sharper and cleaner affair. The pullback followed the convention of two main corrective legs (And a little head fake) and then the uptrend resumed. It also has broken out by this time (Relative to the move from the low). 3. June 2017 Breakout Breakout Date: June 2017. Price Movement: BTC broke above $3,000, moving toward $5,000. Pullback: 38% retracement from $3,000 to $1,850. Consolidation vs. Trend Leg: Consolidation lasted 30 days, trend leg lasted 90 days (ratio 1:3). Could not be said to be very similar in any way. Pullback comes from a bit before the high. Follows the two leg convention and there is strong momentum above the high. 4. November 2017 Breakout Breakout Date: November 2017. Price Movement: BTC surged past $8,000, reaching $9,500. Pullback: 40% retracement from $5,000 to $3,000. Consolidation vs. Trend Leg: Consolidation lasted 15 days, trend leg lasted 3 months (ratio 1:6). Unsimilar. There's a small 3 candle range before the breakout but this is just a clean run up. No one had any chance to make a cent short there. Far from the current conditions of 7 months of on and off bear opportunities. 5. December 2017 Breakout Breakout Date: December 2017. Price Movement: BTC surged from $10,000 to $17,000. Pullback: 30% retracement from $7,888 to $5,500. Consolidation vs. Trend Leg: Consolidation lasted 7 days, trend leg lasted 60 days (ratio 1:9). I'd say this would perhaps be the one that would be cited as the best outcome for bulls. But again this is very different. It's similar in that there's a long period of indecision after the breakout but this never comes back under the ATH. So when we look at the last consolidation action under ATH, nothing like it. We should be sitting above previous highs now. 6. December 2020 Breakout Breakout Date: December 2020. Price Movement: BTC broke through $20,000 and surged past $40,000. Pullback: 16% retracement from $12,000 to $10,000. Consolidation vs. Trend Leg: Consolidation lasted 14 days, trend leg lasted 9 months (ratio 1:19). Not similar. Any of the notable pullback action was before the high was made. A new high resulted in a spectacular rally from the outset. ----- And that concludes the successful BTC breakouts throughout its history. I missed some of the smaller pullbacks etc but any time there's been something like this and BTC recovered and made a new trend leg, that's what they looked like. One could fairly argue there's the same "General tone" to the price moves as some of the historic breakouts. But it's not valid to say this look exactly like any of the previous breakouts based on the metrics used. We didn't find any with a strong match on all three of the testable criteria. We didn't really find that many that matched one. Based on the things we can be sure of, we can say BTC is not currently acting like it has off any successful breakout of the high. ---- 8. April 2021 Failed Breakout Breakout Date: April 2021. Price Movement: BTC reached $64,000 but failed to sustain the breakout. Pullback: 18% retracement from $61,000 to $50,000. Consolidation vs. Trend Leg: Consolidation lasted 12 days, trend leg lasted 90 days (ratio 1:7.5). The failed breakout in 2021 also wasn't much alike the action we have now. This was a really simple failure of the uptrend. It came down in two legs and once the convention of two legs in a pullback failed, that was the break. In a like for like move, BTC would have made its break a few months ago. Up until that failed, this was the most similar in terms of action off a new high (In my opinion). Now - we're into entirely "Uncharted" territory. We've not seen it before. There's never been a time BTC made a break of the high and then went into this type of; A - Complex correction in a bull trend. B - Break pattern in a bear trend. Whatever it was going to be, had always happened by now. The closest to an exception on that being when BTC traded entirely flat a little above the previous high for months (And that's a very different look to 7 months of every rally getting rejected under ATH). When viewed from classic TA, there are several ways one find different types of bullish patterns. It's possible all of this choppy action has built up an inverted head and shoulders. The head fake low being in and us being in the chop section before the breakout. Valid view to have - something I have to set stops in respect of as a bear. But these all have known failure rates - and they are far higher than most people think. The head and shoulders pattern works out about 1/3 of the time. it sucks as a win rate pattern. Trust me. The formation of something like a head and shoulders comes in many breaks and most of the time when the HS fails it produces a strong counter move. Over reliance on the head and shoulders gets you killed as a reversal trader. Flags and trendlines etc, same deal. If they fail it's spectacular and most of the time a pattern really just tells us a decision will come. It's the breaking of the stop zone on one version of the signal or the other that the method is expected to have an edge in predicting direction. These things also always fake out to one side or the other before the true break. If this rally was a false breakout and we closed wick down on the month - then sold the next month, we'd be threatening the bottom of the range and this would look far more bearish. At which point it might be super bearish or that might be the fake out before the bull move. The amount of things that can happen here is vast. There's really only one thing I think it's reasonable to have some degree of confidence in here and that is after there being a 7 month consolidation - something is going to happen once the direction is picked. That is very likely. Once the range is done - there'll be a big strong swing. If it's bearish, probably be 50% down (Likely with some bad news) - and if it's going to be bearish, it has to be in this area. This is where the breakout would usually fail in the type of pattern where this capitulates. So from a tactical betting/RR perspective, the short makes most sense to me. Since the only way I see this type of rejection happening is in a crash like style - most logical thing seems to be buying super deep OTM puts on COIN (Spreads are helpful on these to keep costs down, the calls/puts are pricey). I can make over 10:1 on my bets if the rejection comes and I can lose a redefined amount if I am wrong. Makes more sense that betting on BTC directly where I have to set a sto out the way and have maybe 1:5 RR (And know I have to exit perfectly because it might be a wick move with nominal time to do anything). With the added risk of getting slipped in one of those explosive bull breakouts. Not a great value proposition - but the COIN puts did spectacularly last time and if this was a bull trap bonce we should be at the end of it now. ====== Out there there's a lot of bulls that know it's this pattern and bears that know it's that pattern - but we actually have a unique event in terms of the most obvious and trackable TA metrics. Anything can happen. It's not wise to be overly confident in either direction based on the TA. All the TA can strongly imply for us, is something big comes out of this decision when it's made.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by holeyprofit
1
BTC BUYS RE ENTRY In my previous post I stated that BTC would be a buy however it pulled back and hit my SL. You can see that BTC pulled back deeper into the 1hr support zone. I waited for BTC to respect this area before deciding to re enter as it could have gone even deeper before deciding to push bullish again. I entered based on the 15 min timeframe structure indicating a double bottom pattern at this support area. Lets see if we can retest 68850 - 69000 area. 😎 SL at 68064. TP 1 68600 TP 2 68850 TP 3 69000
VANTAGE:BTCUSDLong
by STMFX
1
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 18, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Bitcoin ''Interim Rebound'' rammed through our Mean Res 66300 and Inner Coin Rally 67000 and rested at our Mean Res 68500 in this week's trading session, and it is currently poised to hit Inner Coin Rally 69300. A breach of this critical price level will catalyze a movement towards the all-time prices marked as Key Res 73200 and the completed Main Inner Coin Rally 73300. However, on the downside, the interim bearish sentiment may lead to a decline in the coin's price value to the Mean Support level of 66800 and possibly the Mean Support of 65300. Only then will the primary recovery and advancement into the subsequent phase of the bullish movement be realized.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
BTC - Global M2 or Global Liquidity?CRYPTOCAP:BTC Global M2 or Global Liquidity? 👥Many people pay too much attention to Global M2 even though it is not nearly as important to Bitcoin as global liquidity. 📝Global M2 mostly does not give us any data on real liquidity infusions, just an increase in the money supply, which simply shows us inflationary expectations. 📝Of course, against the background of inflationary expectations, owning Bitcoin is a good idea, but it does not directly influence the asset. 💡At the same time Global liquidity, shows the actual actions of central banks, such as QE/QT, fiscal measures, and lending, which is more important.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by FeelsStrategy
Will history repeat itself ? (A look at Bitcoin Halving)What is bitcoin halving? Bitcoin halving is a major event that occurs every four years on the Bitcoin network. It involves the reduction of the block reward that miners receive for adding new blocks of transactions to the blockchain. The block reward was initially set at 50 BTC when the Bitcoin network first launched, and it has been halved twice since then. The first halving occurred in November 2012, reducing the block reward to 25 BTC, and the second halving occurred in July 2016, reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC. The most recent halving occurred on May 11th, 2020, and reduced the block reward to 6.25 BTC. This process is designed to keep the total supply of bitcoin limited and controlled, helping to preserve its value over time. It is a significant event in the Bitcoin community and is often seen as a catalyst for price movements in the cryptocurrency market. The price of bitcoin has historically trended upwards in the months and years following previous halving events. For example, the price of bitcoin began to rise significantly in the months leading up to the first halving event in November 2012, and it continued to climb in the years following the event. Similarly, the price of bitcoin increased significantly in the months leading up to the second halving event in July 2016, and it reached an all-time high of almost $20,000 in December 2017, several months after the event. In the above chart, we can see a similar pattern with each Bitcoin halving cycle. In the first halving cycle the price of bitcoin was trending downward until the halving event and after the halving, it started moving upward and reached the peak price of around 1100 USD and started the downtrend for the upcoming bear run till the next bitcoin halving cycle. Similarly in the second halving cycle bitcoin started moving upward after the halving and reached the ATH price of around 20,000 USD and initiating the next downtrend cycle. And in the latest halving cycle the price moved downward until the halving cycle and started moving upwards after the halving and reached the ATH of around 69,000 USD and initiating a new bear trend. Currently, we are in a bear market (crypto winter until the next bitcoin half which is supposed to occur on April 2024, we can expect a clear uptrend after the bitcoin halving cycle and to reach a new ATH. In my personal opinion, this is a great opportunity to invest in Bitcoin and increase your overall bitcoin holdings. If history repeats itself then we will see a new ATH in the next 2 years. (Based on past data bitcoin tends to hit new ATH within 1 year of the halving) Stay tuned for more long-term crypto analysis and education content. Thanks Hexa
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by HexaTrades
9
BTCUSD - Correction Welcome?20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Resistance & Support - Dashed Green & Red Lines Your interest motivates me. How I see it: Price is currently at a key area; it can easily just power on to 70000-72000. Personally, I am unable to long in this area. I need a correction. Patience is key. Keynote: Price is in overbought territory on all intraday TF's!! Thank you for your time reading, boosting or following my analysis. I deeply appreciate it.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by ANROC
2