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Mt. Gox Delays Repayment Deadline, Bitcoin RalliesMarket Update - October 18, 2024 Mt. Gox has delayed its bitcoin repayment deadline by a year:  This delay is viewed as a greenshoot for bitcoin prices, with traders arguing it reduces selling pressure on the broader market. The price of bitcoin was just short of $67,000 by Thursday afternoon. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw notable net inflows of more than $555 million on Monday, the highest since June:  Spot ether ETFs also saw $17 million in inflows, continuing positive momentum for both investment vehicles. Coinbase is pursuing partial summary judgment to obtain SEC documents about crypto regulation:  The regulator has previously delayed in responding to a Freedom of Information request made by the exchange over the same issue. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $18.66 million in net outflows on Tuesday, led by Fidelity’s FBTC, which recorded $48.82 million in withdrawals:  BlackRock’s IBIT was the only ETF to see inflows, with $39.57 million entering the fund. Monochrome will introduce Australia's first spot ETH ETF on Tuesday, following on from the launch of its spot Bitcoin ETF in August:  Notably, the Monochrome ether ETF will allow both cash and in-kind redemptions, which could garner interest from institutional investors. 🌶️ Topic of the Week: Chiliz (CHZ): Bringing Blockchain and Crypto to Sports Fandom 👉 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
1
if you use technical analysis you owe a lot to these individualsTHE HISTORY AND ORIGIN OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS I am a firm believer that as investors/traders we need to know the historic and major events that have occurred in this magnificent field of ours that have shaped how it is today. Today i want to shed light of knowledge on the history/origin of technical analysis as this is a widely used concept that is used by majority of traders/investors to analyse/predict future market moves through the evaluation of historic market data especially price, volume and implied volatility and many have made a living and good returns on the financial markets using the various technical analysis tools and concepts but not knowing where it all started. many do believe that technical analysis was initiated by Charles Dow in the 1800s but this is not true as evidence of Technical Analysis dates far back as to the 17th century from basic and underdeveloped methods as compared to the more evolved ones used in Morden-day times. Let's get straight into it: 17th CENTURY -- 1. the Dutch east India Company traders The Dutch East India Company which was formed in the Dutch Republic, Amsterdam in 1602 which is known to be the first publicly traded company, trading mainly in spices, Indigo and cotton, which gave way to the first financial market the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. Here is when the earliest forms of technical analysis came to show when the Dutch traders would graph record/keep track of the various price fluctuations of their stock but in a basic form. 2. José or Joseph Penso de la Vega still in the 17th century a Spanish diamond merchant, philosopher and poet best known also as Joseph de la Vega, born 1650 in Spain also considered one of the earliest financial market expert published a marvellous financial read called "Confusion De Confusiones" which provided detailed awareness of how the Dutch financial market participants operated focusing on their illogical behaviour and price patterns they used further more hinting on technical analysis with his descriptions of technical analysis concepts such as puts, calls and pools which are still relevant in Morden-day technical analysis and how he used these in the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. 18th CENTURY Homma Munehisa Homma Munehisa, born 1724 in Sakata, Japan a Japanese rice merchant trading in Dōjima Rice Exchange developed what i consider the most popular form of technical analysis which proved high standards of acceptance as traders/investors world-wide still use it in modern-day times, he initiated the Japanese Candlestick/ K-Line (primarily known as Sakata Charts), which is a price chart that's represents the open, close, high and low prices of a security for a specific time period which was introduced in his book "THE FOUNTAIN OF GOLD- THE THREE MONKEY RECORD OF MONEY" which also shared insights about chart patterns, markets trends and traders human emotions. LATE 19TH AND EARLY 20TH CENTURY Charles Henry Dow considered father of technical analysis born 1851 Charles Dow is the one that first to induct modern-day technical analysis in the United States Of America, he was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones and Company which is a publishing firm along ide Edward Davis Jones and Charles Bergstresser. He also co-founded The Wall Street Journal which its first publication was on July 8, 1889 which became the the most reputed financial publication and first of it's kind which was a series of texts that discussed his observations of the U.S stock market especially the industrial and transportation stocks listed in the U.S stock market this gave way to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average, he also held a strong believe that "the stock market as a whole was a reliable measure of overall business conditions within the economy" he also developed the Dow Jones Theory which states that the market has 3 trend phases which was a significant breakthrough in technical analysis as this theory aids traders/investors in identifying the major, intermediate and minor trends in the market. after his passing many other technical analysis developers came from studying his work/publications which include the likes of William Hamilton who later become the editor of the wall street journal, others notable followers of his work include Robert Rhea, George Shaefer and Richard Russel. another prominent figure in the development of modern-day technical analysis is Ralph Nelson Elliot born 1871 whose financial career started as an accountant, Mr. Elliot was famously known for studying 75 years of historical stock market data and recording his research and findings manually as computerized systems where limited which i believe is very outstanding. his work is based on a theory that market movements are not random and that the markets moves in specific trends and patterns (waves) which are influenced by traders/investors psychology. his wave theory gained traction in March 13, 1935 when he stated that the the market will make a bottom and indeed the following trading day the Dow Jones Industrial Average made it's lowest closing price, which proved his Elliot Wave Theory to be a significant technical anaysis concept. 20th CENTURY Technical Indicators with the aid of computerized systems technical analysis evolved into technical indicators which are computer systems backed by mathematical calculations of price data which apply these calculations to analyse large volumes of market data incorporated by algorithms which overlap on charts to forecast future price movements. hope you have a fun read and learned something new. “In learning you will teach, and in teaching you will learn.” Phil Collins put together by Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
18 Oct Options Delivery Data11,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.78, a maximum pain point of $64,000 and a notional value of $1.26 billion. 138,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.61, a maximum pain of $2,500 and a notional value of $360 million. While Bitcoin has rallied significantly this week, Ether's rally has been more feeble, with Ether options expiry positions this week just under 30% of Bitcoin's. In terms of implied volatility, ETH's flat option IV around January is just 4% higher than BTC's, and continues to go lower. Thinking back to July ETH ETF through , can really be said to take advantage of the timing, the kind of vibrant, everything is even the realm of hair, still in front of us. Just three months later, the world's computer to a change and become the world's abacus?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Greeks_live
10/17 Give us a healthy pull back. Overview: The AMEX:SPY continues its upward trajectory, hitting new all-time highs. The bullish momentum is supported by more companies exceeding earnings expectations this week. Despite rising unemployment and persistent inflation, corporations are posting record profits. It’s a reminder that the stock market and the economy don’t always move in sync. The NASDAQ:QQQ , representing big tech, is hovering near its all-time high but struggling to break through. The Federal Reserve reported fewer initial jobless claims at 241k, a decrease from last week, but still higher than the average over the last three years. The CME Watch Tool now indicates a 9.3% chance of no rate cut in the next meeting on November 7th, influenced by these labor market figures. Meanwhile, a surge in BTC ETF purchases has been observed throughout the week. Yesterday, BlackRock acquired $309 million worth, nearly tripling its average of $117.4 million. This marks their fourth consecutive day of buying. Even Grayscale joined the action. Altogether, $1.854 billion flowed into BTC ETFs this week. This could either mark the peak of the sixth bullish wave or set up a breakout from the year-long bullish flag pattern. BTC saw an 8% rise this week, making it one of the top five best-performing weeks of the year, including February's pump following BTC ETF approval. However, the volume remains lower than expected. For a full trend confirmation, we need institutional whales to join in. If we are indeed breaking out of the bullish flag, the volume should match levels seen at the beginning of the bull run in October and November 2023, when weekly volumes were 80-100% higher than this week. BTC Technical Analysis: W: On the weekly chart, BINANCE:BTCUSDT candle wick has reached July's open and close but hasn't tested its highs around $70k. A close above $68.2k this week would be a bullish signal. We still have Friday, but the weekend isn’t likely to bring much action. D: BTC has been at the upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days without any correction or pullback. The candles are reminiscent of the week of September 3rd, which saw an 8.5% pump, followed by a fake breakout and an additional 4.54% rise before a sharp decline wiped out all gains within ten days. A healthy pullback could target the $64-68k range—but of course, the bullish sentiment says, "No pullbacks on the way to the moon!" 4h: The current pump started at the key 2024 level of $62.7k, rising in three waves. The third push had lower volume, signaling a price-volume divergence. RSI has exceeded 70 twice and is now trending down, showing divergence with the price. On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) also indicate divergence. Without a clear shooting star candle with high volume, nothing is confirmed yet. We might see some sideways action over the weekend before a possible breakout on Sunday evening. 1h: Bearish. Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR are showing weakness. None have reached their July peaks like BTC, and they have all pulled back after this week’s pump. Quick question: Does MKR have a bottom? Bull Case: If we continue breaking out of the bull flag, the pump could extend into next week, with potential gains of another 6-8%. If Trump wins and crypto rallies, rates could be cut in November and December, bringing them down to 4.25-4.50%. Bear Case: We could continue oscillating within the $58-70k range, and we are currently at the upper end. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 58, still Neutral, but it touched the Greed level of 60 yesterday.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-18 : Tmp-Bottom PatternHappy Friday, Today's pattern is a Tmp-Bottom pattern for the SPY Cycle Patterns. This pattern usually acts as price attempting to find immediate support in early trading, then moving into a moderate melt-up rally. After yesterday's big opening gap (higher) on the SPY, I suspect the SPY & QQQ will attempt to rally back to those highs and possibly attempt to break those highs today. In other words, I believe yesterday's opening price high was a reaction price level where price ran into immediate resistance. After watching price roll downward and now attempt to melt upward in overnight trading, I interpret this move as "failing to continue to establish new lower lows". Thus, price then shifts into a mode of "must attempt to make higher highs". If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY/QQQ melt upward off the Tmp-Bottom pattern and possibly attempt to move up 1.25-1.50%+ today. Gold and Silver are playing out very nicely - still moving in a solid rally phase. Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways. The length of time Bitcoin has consolidated could present a very big breakout or breakdown pattern over the next 2 to 5+ days. So, be aware that any move away from the #3 & #4 consolidation phase of the Excess Phase Peak pattern could resolve into a very big price move for Bitcoin. Currently, I suggest the downward price move has a slight advantage - simply because of the failed new highs (price rejection). But, that could change in an instant with a confirmed higher high/higher close. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
3
BTC TreysBTC to 33k for various reasons. 1. Since the beginning of Bitcoin, historical data shows BTC does yearly ATH and ATL's. What's interesting the pattern; every year since 2011 we have seen a correction of 60%-80% retracement from the ATH (followed by exponential gains) with the exception of 2024 which we have only seen a 20% retracement. 60-80% retracement for 2024 should put us at (BTC) 15k-30k. 2. Supreme Court grants US Government permission to sell (auction) 69k worth of BTC from Silk Road Case after legal win. Even if they do not sell, this will create a panic and fear and cause others to short therefore helping the price reach our target. 3. Monthly timeframe: we can see ineverted head and shoulder pattern at the bottom between 2022 and 2024 never retested. This is the key to our target as it is slightly above the 60% retracement from last ATH. BTC falling is also supported by the rejection/resistance on the Monthly supply zone which never broke and actually held pretty well. Pattern wise I can see a double top pretty much formed, closing above neckline and retesting the high (bull trap) so in my books this is ready for a sell. Candle wise we had a bearish engulfing followed by the retest of the high I just spoke about. However price failed to close above; still bearish. 4. Weekly timeframe: Pattern - clear bearish pattern anyway you want to look at it; triple top, head and shoulder or double top. Candle - beautiful price action, same as monthly with a bearish engulfing and retest of the high eventually closing under the neckline of bearish engulfing pattern. SPOILER:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TrueGoatTrading
1
Bitcoins price support levels going forwardI've created a simple medium-term chart with just the indicators you need to see the signal in the noise and determine price levels where bitcoin may see support, going forward. $74,381 #Power Law band immediately above current price and new ATH $65,148 #Power Law band immediately below current price $58,014 #Up-trend support line / retest / mean-revert level $55,568 #Bottom of Buy/Sell order book and lower Power Law band Hitting any of these lower price levels does not indicate a bear market and could be considered completely normal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CyberfellaLtd
This One Emotion Could Be Destroying Your Trading ProfitsIn the world of trading, emotions play a pivotal role in shaping decision-making, and one of the most powerful and potentially dangerous emotions traders face is GREED . Greed, when left unchecked, can lead to impulsive decisions, high-risk behaviors, and significant losses. On the flip side, mastering greed and learning to manage it can make you a more disciplined and successful trader. In this article, we will explore what greed in trading looks like, how it affects performance and practical strategies for managing it. Greed in Trading? Greed in trading is the overwhelming desire for more – more profits, more wins, more success – often without regard to risk, logic, or a well-structured plan. It can manifest in different ways, such as overtrading, chasing unrealistic returns, holding on to winning positions for too long, or abandoning a proven strategy in the hope of making quick gains. How Greed Manifests in Trading: 📈Overtrading: A greedy trader may take on far more trades than necessary, often without proper analysis or risk management, simply to increase exposure to potential profits. Overtrading increases transaction costs, dilutes focus, and leads to emotional burnout. 🏃‍♂️Chasing Profits: Greed can cause traders to chase after price movements, entering trades impulsively based on fear of missing out (FOMO). This often leads to poor entry points, increased risk, and diminished returns. ⚠️Ignoring Risk Management: A greedy trader might ignore risk parameters like stop losses or over-leverage positions, believing they can maximize profits by taking on more risk. This is a dangerous path, as a single market movement in the wrong direction can wipe out large portions of capital. ⏳Failure to Exit: Holding on to winning trades for too long is another sign of greed. Instead of securing profits according to a trading plan, traders might hold positions with the hope that prices will continue to rise indefinitely, only to see their gains evaporate when the market reverses. How Greed Affects Trading Performance Greed can distort your decision-making process. It leads to overconfidence and clouds judgment, causing you to believe that the market will always behave in your favor. This overconfidence pushes traders to abandon their strategies or take unnecessary risks, resulting in: Emotional Trading: The trader begins to react emotionally to every small market movement, making decisions based on feelings rather than rational analysis. Impaired Risk Management: Greed often blinds traders to the importance of managing risk, which is the backbone of long-term trading success. A single high-risk move inspired by greed can erase months or years of gains. Missed Opportunities: By focusing on unrealistic gains or trying to squeeze every bit of profit from a trade, a trader may miss more reliable and smaller, but consistent, opportunities. The Psychology Behind Greed Greed is rooted in our psychology and is amplified by the very nature of the financial markets. Trading offers the possibility of instant gains, which triggers a dopamine response in the brain, making us feel rewarded. The lure of quick profits encourages traders to take greater risks or deviate from their trading plans in pursuit of bigger wins. However, the emotional high from successful trades is often short-lived. Traders can become addicted to this feeling, pushing them to take on more trades or stay in positions for longer than they should. Eventually, this leads to bad habits and unsustainable trading practices How to Manage Greed in Trading While greed is a natural human emotion, it can be controlled with the right mindset and strategies. Here are some practical ways to manage greed in trading: 1. Set Realistic Goals The first step in managing greed is setting clear, realistic trading goals. Rather than aiming for massive, one-time profits, focus on steady, consistent returns. Define what "success" looks like for you on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. Having measurable goals helps anchor your trading behavior and keeps you grounded. Example: Instead of aiming for a 100% return in a short period, set a more achievable target like 5%-10% monthly. This may not sound as exciting, but it's more sustainable in the long term. 2. Stick to a Trading Plan A well-defined trading plan is your safeguard against impulsive decisions driven by greed. Your plan should outline entry and exit points, stop-loss levels, and risk-reward ratios. By adhering strictly to your plan, you can resist the temptation to hold on to trades longer than necessary or jump into trades impulsively. Key elements of a good trading plan include: -Entry and exit criteria are based on analysis, not emotion -Risk management rules (like how much to risk per trade, stop-loss settings) -Profit-taking strategy, deciding when to lock in gains 3. Use Risk Management Techniques Effective risk management is the antidote to greed. By setting strict risk parameters, you limit the impact of poor decisions driven by emotions. Always use stop-loss orders to protect yourself from significant losses, and never risk more than a small percentage of your trading capital on any single trade (example 1-2%). Avoid over-leveraging, as leverage amplifies both profits and losses. While it may be tempting to use high leverage to chase bigger gains, it significantly increases the risk of catastrophic losses. 4. Take Profits Regularly One way to counteract greed is to develop a habit of taking profits regularly. When you set profit targets ahead of time, you can ensure that you lock in gains before they evaporate. Don’t wait for an unrealistic price surge. Exit trades once your profit target is reached, or scale out by selling a portion of your position as the trade progresses. 5. Practice Emotional Awareness Being aware of your emotional state is crucial in trading. Take the time to self-reflect and recognize when greed is influencing your decisions. Keep a trading journal to track not just your trades, but also your emotions during the process. This will help you identify patterns and emotional triggers that lead to poor decisions. Example: After a series of winning trades, you may feel overconfident and tempted to take bigger risks. By noting this in your journal, you can remind yourself to remain disciplined and not deviate from your plan. 6. Focus on Long-Term Success Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Focus on the long-term process rather than short-term profits. Greed often leads traders to forget that consistent, small gains compound over time. By shifting your mindset to long-term wealth-building, you’re less likely to take excessive risks or engage in reckless behavior. Greed is a natural emotion in trading, but it can be highly destructive if not managed properly. The key to success lies in discipline, risk management, and a well-structured trading plan that aligns with your goals. By understanding the psychological drivers of greed and taking proactive steps to control it, traders can make more rational decisions, protect their capital, and increase their chances of long-term success.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by HexaTrades
BITCOIN 'Angle Theory' unlocking this Cycle. Is $140k the top?Exactly 1 year ago (October 02 2023, see chart below), we published a renewed approach on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) historic Cycles, using the 'Angles Theory' on the logarithmic curve to make a more accurate roadmap of the current Cycle: Back then, the price was 'just' $28000 and a few months later it catapulted to almost $74000. Below we present again the basics of that analysis, in order to refresh your memory. ** Cycle Peaks and angles ** BTC's Cycle peaks in historical order have been $32, $1250, $19800, $69800. They all made contact with the Logarithmic top Growth Curve, a historic pattern that is holding since BTC's inception. Every peak-to-peak measurement appears to be roughly half of the previous peak. The automatic angle measurements on the (red) dotted lines may differ based on the screen's display and how the horizontal/ vertical axis move but on ours (and the screenshot of the idea) goes like this: 42°, 22°, 11°. We estimate a 7° angle for the new Cycle peak on the log Growth Curve. ** Next Cycle peak? ** If we take all previous Cycles and apply them to fit the new price action towards the top of the Log Growth Curve, that 7° line gives a projected Cycle peak within $140000 - 160000 (slightly updated from our study a year ago). It is also interesting to apply the same angle principle to the Cycle bottoms. We can see that those (green dotted lines) can also roughly be half of what the previous bottom was (though the variations are higher). The new bottom is estimated to be on a 8° angle. Remarkably the angles of the tops and bottoms of each Cycle have approximately the same measurements, indicating that despite being logarithmic within a curve, they can be viewed separately in Channels. ** Last year compared to now ** So how has this Theory worked out compared to last year? Well beyond doubt, the Cycle was much more aggressive that the previous two (blue and orange) due to mainly the Bitcoin ETF launch, and is certainly more similar to the first Cycle (black). That suggests that it will top by January 2025 but the Sine Waves Tops, which have caught Bitcoin's cyclical peaks with incredible accuracy, indicate it will be around November 2025. As you can see, this is exactly where the projection of the blue and orange fractals show. But what do you think? Will the current Cycle peak at the end of 2025 and if show will it be at a minimum of $140000 and a maximum of $1600000, as the 7° angle on the Log Curve suggests? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
BTCUSD - Dips Can Be Bought - Target 95kAs mentioned in the group, went bullish on Bitcoin around 65k buying a little for my current target of 95k. This was adding to my current position. So why bullish now? Lets explain. Let's start with consolidations are generally continuation patterns. They come in all shapes and sizes, flags, pennants, whatever you want to call it. The other point is this has been a pretty broad consolidation over a period of 26 weeks or so. Bullish equities tend to linger, bearish ones fall apart. We are seeing more of that lingering around than capitulating. Yes it is a pretty broad consolidation but Bitcoin is known for volatility to begin with. The last point to make is look at how quickly the sell-offs came as Bitcoin traded above 67k. They fell apart quickly in the B-C leg and the D-E leg, even the minor leg recently it fell apart. However now we are pushing 67k and holding, it is wanting to break this trend line. So why bullish, shouldn't we plan on another pullback? Well not so fast! The next leg higher generally happens when you run out of sellers. See the first pullback (A leg) some missed, so when Bitcoin pushed back up towards that high, those that missed the original move took profits. You also get dip buyers and traders that are buying pullbacks and selling rallies. This is why the pattern forms. However if sellers run out, and there is still buying interest, well the next leg higher happens. That is what we are seeing here. No we are not in the Euphoric period where everyone is buying. Actually my business partner was telling me, crap I missed the move, now he wants to buy more here. There are likely more of those out there, Crap I missed that 15k buy, I missed the 35k buy, well I am going to buy here. So IMO there is still room to run, and this may be the initial move higher. We need to break 70k and it stick to confirm, but as of now, and as I mentioned in the group, I bought some at 65k and will be looking to add on any pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by goldbug1
11
Above 65,9k we target 94k-109k for BTC!As a follow-up to my yesterday's published analysis, I want to add that I believe that we can see a sort of consolidation for BTC to have then further upside potential. It's of mega importance to stay above 65,9k to now go above the 68,5k BUT if we consolidate for to long, a correction to lower prices can be the result. All eyes on BTC for now to understand how to trade the right Altcoins that go with BTC and those that crush when BTC is surging!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by PC-CTHUB