BTCUSD.PM trade ideas
BTCUSD - Exhausted? Second time rejected, now down.BTCUSD got rejected at the Centerline the second time. This is super bearish. If it's closing below yesterdays low, that's a clear short signal to me.
Taking 50% gains off the table is never bad. Because then you still have 50% if it's going up further. Otherwise, you got 50% booked.
Don't let gree eat your brain §8-)
BITCOIN High after High going for the Cycle Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a new All Time High (ATH) today, just north of $123000 and shows absolutely no signs of stopping there!
The brilliantly structured 2.5-year Channel Up (blue) that has been dominating the entirety of the current Bull Cycle since the November 2022 market bottom, has been on its latest Bullish Leg since the April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1W MA50 has been the Cycle's natural Support level since the March 13 2023 bullish break-out, never broken after, just like it has been for the 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle (excluding of course the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID crash).
In fact the similarities of the whole 2022 - 2025 Cycle are strong with the 2018 - 2021 Cycle. Similar Bear Cycles of -80% on average, followed by strong Lower Highs break-outs and subsequent consolidations within the 0.786 - 0.618 Fibonacci range, takes us to today with the April 2025 1W MA50 bounce resembling the July 2021 one.
Eventually, that Bullish Leg led to the Cycle's Top a little above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. The market seems to be only one step away of completing that past pattern and if it does, BTC may hit $170000 before the Cycle peaks.
Do you think that is a likely scenario after today's new fresh ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin Strategic Compression Beneath the Cloud Gate.⊣
⟁ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: 4H) - (July 17, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $118,099.62.
⊣
⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval – (4H):
▦ EMA9 - (Exponential Moving Average - 9 Close):
∴ EMA9 is currently positioned at $118,286.83, marginally above the current price of $118,099.62;
∴ The slope of the EMA9 has begun to turn sideways-to-downward, indicating loss of short-term acceleration;
∴ The price has crossed below EMA9 within the last two candles, suggesting an incipient rejection of immediate bullish continuation.
✴️ Conclusion: Short-term momentum has weakened, positioning EMA 9 as immediate dynamic resistance.
⊢
▦ EMA21 - (Exponential Moving Average - 21 Close):
∴ EMA21 is measured at $118,018.67, positioned slightly below both price and EMA9, indicating a recent tightening of trend structure;
∴ The slope of EMA21 remains positive, preserving the medium-range bullish structure intact;
∴ EMA21 has been tested multiple times and held as support since July 15 - confirming tactical reliability as dynamic floor.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA21 stands as a critical pivot zone; any sustained breach would denote structural stress.
⊢
▦ EMA50 - (Exponential Moving Average - 50 Close):
∴ EMA50 is currently located at $116,240.85, well below current price action;
∴ The curve maintains a healthy positive inclination, affirming preservation of broader intermediate trend;
∴ No contact or proximity to EMA50 over the last 20 candles - indicating strong bullish detachment and buffer zone integrity.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA50 confirms medium-term bullish alignment; not yet challenged.
⊢
▦ EMA200 - (Exponential Moving Average - 200 Close):
∴ EMA200 stands at $110,539.69, forming the base of the entire 4H structure;
∴ The gradient is gradually rising, reflecting accumulation over a long time horizon;
∴ The distance between price and EMA200 reflects extended bullish positioning, yet also opens risk for sharp reversion if acceleration collapses.
✴️ Conclusion: Long-term structure remains bullish; early signs of overextension exist.
⊢
▦ Ichimoku Cloud - (9, 21, 50, 21):
∴ Price is currently above the Kumo (cloud), placing the pair within a bullish regime;
∴ Tenkan-sen (conversion) and Kijun-sen (base) lines show narrowing separation, suggesting momentum compression;
∴ Senkou Span A > Span B, and the cloud ahead is bullishly twisted, though thinning - indicating potential vulnerability despite structural advantage.
✴️ Conclusion: Bullish regime intact, but loss of momentum and cloud compression warrant caution.
⊢
▦ Volume + EMA21:
∴ Current volume for the latest candle is 3 BTC, compared to the EMA21 of 84 BTC;
∴ This indicates an extremely low participation phase, often associated with distribution zones or indecisive consolidation;
∴ Previous impulsive candles (July 15) reached well above 100 BTC - the current contraction is stark and strategically significant.
✴️ Conclusion: Absence of volume threatens trend continuation; energy depletion apparent.
⊢
▦ RSI - (21) + EMA9:
∴ RSI (21) is positioned at 55.73, marginally above neutral zone;
∴ EMA 9 of RSI is 57.71, crossing downward against RSI - bearish micro signal;
∴ No divergence is present versus price action - oscillator confirms current stagnation rather than exhaustion.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI losing strength above neutral; lacks momentum for breakout, but no capitulation.
⊢
▦ Stoch RSI - (3,3,21,9):
∴ %K is 21.44, %D is 45.34 - both pointing downward, in deacceleration phase;
∴ Recent rejection from overbought zone without full reset into oversold - signaling weak bullish thrust;
∴ Historical cycles show rhythmical reversals near current levels, but only with supportive volume, which is absent now.
✴️ Conclusion: Short-term momentum failed to sustain overbought breakout - micro-correction expected.
⊢
▦ MACD - (9, 21):
∴ MACD line is at -104.80, Signal line at 268.16 - large separation, histogram deeply negative;
∴ The bearish crossover occurred with declining volume, implying fading momentum rather than aggressive sell-off;
∴ No bullish divergence formed yet - continuation of correction remains technically favored.
✴️ Conclusion: MACD confirms trend exhaustion; no reversal in sight.
⊢
▦ OBV + EMA 9:
∴ OBV is 71.13M, perfectly aligned with its EMA9 - indicating equilibrium in volume flow;
∴ No directional bias in accumulation or distribution - flatlining suggests passive environment;
∴ Prior OBV uptrend has stalled since July 15 - reinforcing narrative of hesitation.
✴️ Conclusion: Institutional flow is neutral; no aggressive positioning detected.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle: The current price structure presents a classic post-impulse compression configuration within a preserved bullish environment. Despite the higher timeframe alignment, multiple short-term indicators exhibit tactical dissonance and signs of momentum decay. This inconsistency reflects a market caught between structural optimism and tactical hesitation.
♘ Key strategic signals - Structural Alignment:
∴ All major EMA's (9, 21, 50, 200) remain stacked in bullish order with no bearish crossovers imminent;
∴ Price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud and above EMA50 - both confirming structural dominance by buyers.
♘ Momentum Degradation:
∴ RSI (21) is drifting below its EMA9, weakening the momentum required for further upside continuation;
∴ Stochastic RSI has rolled over aggressively, failing to reach oversold before reversing - mid-cycle weakness is confirmed.
♘ Volume Collapse:
∴ The current volume profile is critically weak - 3 Bitcoin against an average of 84 Bitcoins (EMA21);
∴ Price attempting to sustain above EMA's with no conviction signals distribution or passivity.
♘ MACD & OBV:
∴ MACD histogram remains deep in negative territory, and no bullish crossover is visible;
∴ OBV is flat - neither accumulation nor distribution dominates, leaving directional thrust suspended.
✴️ Oracle Insight:
∴ The technical field is Structurally Bullish, but Tactically Compressed.
∴ No breakout should be expected unless volume decisively returns above baseline (84 Bitcoins EMA);
∴ Below $117,800, the structure risks transition into a corrective phase;
∴ Above $118,450, potential trigger zone for bullish extension if accompanied by volume surge.
♘ Strategic posture:
∴ Wait-and-observe regime activated;
∴ No entry condition satisfies both structure and momentum at present;
∴ Tactical neutrality is advised until confirmation.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence - (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ Exchange Reserve - (All Exchanges):
∴ The total Bitcoin reserves held on all exchanges continue a sharp and uninterrupted decline, now at ~2.4M BTC, down from over 3.4M in mid-2022;
∴ This downtrend has accelerated particularly after January 2025, with a visible drop into new lows - no accumulation rebound observed;
∴ Historically, every prolonged depletion of exchange reserves correlates with structural bullish setups, as supply becomes increasingly illiquid.
✴️ Conclusion: On-chain supply is structurally diminishing, confirming long-term bullish regime intact - mirrors technical EMA alignment.
⊢
▦ Fund Flow Ratio - (All Exchanges):
∴ Current Fund Flow Ratio stands at 0.114, which is well below historical danger thresholds seen near 0.20-0.25 during local tops;
∴ The ratio has remained consistently low throughout the 2025 uptrend, indicating that on-chain activity is not directed toward exchange-based selling;
∴ Spikes in this indicator tend to precede local corrections - but no such spike is currently present, reinforcing the notion of non-threatening capital flow.
✴️ Conclusion: Capital is not rotating into exchanges for liquidation - volume weakness seen in 4H chart is not linked to sell intent.
⊢
▦ Miners' Position Index - (MPI):
∴ The MPI sits firmly below the red threshold of 2.0, and currently ranges in sub-neutral levels (~0.5 and below);
∴ This suggests that miners are not engaging in aggressive distribution, and are likely retaining Bitcoin off-exchange;
∴ Sustained low MPI readings during price advances confirm alignment with institutional and long-term accumulation behavior.
✴️ Conclusion: Miner behavior supports structural strength - no mining-induced supply pressure present at this stage.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
∴ Across the three strategic indicators, no on-chain evidence supports short-term weakness;
∴ Supply is declining - (Exchange Reserve ↓);
∴ Funds are not preparing for exit - (Flow Ratio stable);
∴ Miners are not selling - (MPI subdued).
✴️ This constellation reinforces the thesis of Structural Bullishness with Tactical Compression, and suggests that any pullback is not backed by foundational stress.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ The multi-timeframe EMA stack remains intact and aligned - (9 > 21 > 50 > 200);
∴ Price floats above Ichimoku Cloud, and above EMA21 support, confirming elevated positioning within a macro bull channel;
∴ On-chain metrics confirm supply contraction, miner retention, and absence of fund rotation toward exchanges - structure remains sovereign;
∴ RSI - (21) slips under its EMA9 with low amplitude, indicating absence of energetic flow;
∴ Stoch RSI fails to reset fully and points downward - suggesting premature momentum decay;
∴ MACD histogram remains negative, while volume is significantly beneath EMA baseline (3 BTC vs 84 BTC);
∴ Price faces resistance at Kijun-sen ($118.451), acting as tactical ceiling; no breakout signal detected.
⊢
✴️ Interpretatio Finalis:
∴ Structural integrity remains unshaken - the architecture is bullish;
∴ Tactically, however, the battlefield is fogged - silence reigns in volume, hesitation in oscillators;
∴ A true continuation requires volume resurrection and resolution above $118,450. Until then, neutrality governs the edge.
⊢
⧉
Cryptorvm Dominvs · ⚜️ MAGISTER ARCANVM ⚜️ · Vox Primordialis
⌬ - Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy - ⌬
⧉
⊢
July 14 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoin Guide.
If you "follow"
You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections.
If my analysis was helpful,
Please click the booster button at the bottom.
This is a Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There is no separate Nasdaq indicator announcement.
Nasdaq upper gap reversal condition and
Bitcoin is moving sideways after a sharp rebound until the afternoon.
I created today's strategy based on the vertical decline condition based on the 5-minute trend reversal in Tether Dominance.
On the lower left, I connected the long position entry section of 117,451.1 dollars that I entered on the 11th.
* In the case of the red finger movement path,
This is a one-way long position
current position chase purchase strategy.
1. Chasing purchase at 121,897.1 dollars / Stop loss price when the green support line is broken
2. 124,639.5 dollars long position 1st target -> Good, Great in order of target price
Since I left a simulation in the middle,
I think it would be good to use it for re-entry after liquidating the long position.
The movement within the 1st section at the top and the 2nd section at the bottom
is an extreme sideways movement, and from a long position,
if it succeeds in rebounding within the 2nd section, it becomes a strong upward condition.
From the 3rd section breakout today,
the low point is broken in the newly created weekly and daily chart candles this week,
so please note that the upward trend may be delayed.
The next support line is the Gap8 section created last week.
Up to this point, I ask that you simply refer to and utilize my analysis
and I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you.
BTCUSD H4 Potential DropHi there,
BTCUSD H4: As long as the 85,119.33 level holds, the overall trend remains bullish in a larger scope.
Currently, the price is trading below the diagonal dotted trendline. The further it stays below this trendline, the stronger the bears' position.
The level of 101,574.21 is open for a bias towards 93,511.35.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice.
BTCUSD 7/16/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you a Full Top-Down Analysis with a Deep Dive Down into the 30min Timeframe. This is One you don't want to miss.
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
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BTCUSD – Breakout Plan from Demand Zone (CHoCH + OB Setup)🔹 Current View:
I'm closely watching the 107,240 zone, where we have a strong Demand + Order Block + CHoCH (Change of Character) setup. This is a key support area that could trigger a fresh bearish move if broken.
🔹 My Plan:
I'm waiting for a clear breakout below 107,240 to enter a short position.
➡️ Entry: 107,240 (after confirmed breakout)
➡️ Stop Loss: 109,750 (above supply + BOS zone)
➡️ Target: 105,000 (previous inefficiency zone)
🔹 Supply Zones Noted:
- 109,250–109,500: Supply + FVG + BOS
- 110,000–110,500: Strong Supply + FVG
This trade is based on price breaking demand structure and retesting key supply areas above. Volume profile also shows heavy activity above, indicating possible resistance on any pullbacks.
Bitcoin H1 | Potential bounce off a pullback supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 116,469.00 which is a pullback support that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 114,600.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 119,650.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Btcusd breaking above cup and handle necklineIf it confirms the bullish breakout the target is 150k. Also by breaking above 116k and solidifying that level as strong support, we will trigger an even bigger inverse head and shoulders pattern (not shown here) with a breakout target around 208k! I will provide a link below to the chart I posted of that pattern. Thanks for reading, liking, and following. *not financial advice*
Signs of Weekness: Is Bitcoin Losing Momentum?Last week, Bitcoin made a new all-time high and gave bulls some serious profits. Price action has been looking solid and strong ever since it broke above the psychological and technical level of $110,000. But now, we’re starting to see signs that the market might need a healthy retracement.
On the daily chart, there’s a clear long wick at the top, which is a sign that buyers may be losing momentum up here. There’s also a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between roughly $115,200 and $112,200. In most cases, price tends to revisit these imbalances, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we dip back into that zone. I’m watching the midpoint around $113,700 because that could be a key level for a bounce if the bulls want to keep control.
If that zone fails to hold or we see a clean breakdown without much of a reaction, there’s a chance we revisit the $110,000 breakout level. From a Fibonacci standpoint, the 0.382 retracement of the recent move from around $98K to $120K also lands near $111.6K, which adds some confluence to that area.
Overall, I still think the trend is strong, but after this daily candle, I think that a 5–7% pullback wouldn’t be unusual or unhealthy. What are your thoughts? Are we just cooling off before another breakout, or is a deeper retracement on the table? Comments and suggestions?
Bitcoin Parabolic Curve - 2022 to 2026 Market CycleThis line chart visualizes the current Bitcoin market cycle from the bear market bottom in November 2022. As you can see, the price has formed a parabolic curve, which was violated around the beginning of March. A couple of weeks later, a retest of the curve occurred, which was rejected. Later in April, the price of BTC was able to push back above the curve. There was another small dip below in June, but BTC was back above the curve by the end of June.
I am also watching the Bitcoin monthly chart and, more specifically, the monthly Stochastic RSI indicator. As you can see in the chart below, between the second and third months after the market cycle peak, the Stochastic RSI indicator has always dropped below the "20" level, and was near zero at the close of the third month.
Back in March and April, there was some speculation that the new all-time high set on January 20th at just over $109k was the peak for this market cycle. At the beginning of April, the Stochastic RSI dropped well below the 20 level but rebounded and was at 16.81 when the April candle closed. The May monthly candle closed with the Stochastic RSI at 31.45, and June closed at 50.17. This indicated to me that this market cycle was far from over.
On July 14th, BTC set a new all-time high at just over $123,000, ending the speculation that this current market cycle had peaked. My assumption for now is that Bitcoin is still following a 4-year market cycle. If this is true, I would expect a market cycle peak sometime in the final months of this year. Either way, it has been a very interesting market cycle with huge changes for the crypto asset class.
SELL BTCUSD for bullish divergence trend reversal STOP LOSS: 120SELL BTCUSD for bullish divergence trend reversal STOP LOSS: 120,246
Regular Bearish Divergence
In case of Regular Bearish Divergence:
* The Indicator shows Lower Highs
* Actual Market Price shows Higher Highs
We can see a strong divergence on the MACD already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart.....
The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this level resistance so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here .....
TAKE PROFIT: take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything
Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with........trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here...
Bitcoin May Face Short-Term Pullback📊 Market Summary
– Bitcoin trades around $118,009, retreating from its intraday high of $118,330 .
– The recent rally was primarily fueled by $14.8 billion inflows into spot BTC ETFs, lifting BTC to an ATH of $123,000 on July 14
– Profit-taking has triggered a ~3% correction
– Market awaits key CPI/PPI inflation data and regulatory clarity in the US to guide next moves.
📉 Technical Analysis
• Resistance: $123,000 – $123,100 (all-time high zone, weekly candle top).
• Support: $114,000 – $115,000 (potential retest zone, IH&S neckline, CME gap)
• EMA 9: Price remains above all major EMAs (10/20/50/100/200 day) – bullish short-term trend
• Candles / Volume / Momentum:
• Confirmed inverted head and shoulders breakout above ~$113,000 neckline
• RSI ~74 suggests overbought; short term pullback possible
• MACD bullish but on chain volumes are cooling, reflecting profit taking
📌 Outlook
– Expect a short-term cooldown/pullback toward $114,000–$115,000 for support testing.
– If support holds and ETF inflows continue, BTC could resume rally toward $130,000–$140,000
💡 Trade Strategy
🟣 SELL BTC/USD upon break below $117,000–$118,000 during retrace
🎯 TP: $115,000
❌ SL: $118,500
🟢 BUY BTC/USD at support $114,000–$115,000
🎯 TP: $120,000 – $123,000
❌ SL: $113,000
BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Break of Structure + SupportBTCUSD Technical Analysis – Break of Structure + Support/Resistance Strategy
🔍 Market Structure Insight
The chart clearly shows multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) throughout the uptrend, indicating strong bullish momentum. Each BOS confirms a higher high formation and continued market strength.
📌 Key Zones
Resistance Zone: Price recently tested this level and faced rejection, indicating potential short-term selling pressure.
Support Zone: Price is currently retesting this level after a correction, showing signs of a possible bounce. It aligns well with the EMA support cluster (20–200 EMAs).
🔄 Current Price Action
After a significant impulse move to the upside, BTC is now in a corrective phase. However, the support zone is holding, and there's potential for a new bullish wave if price sustains above $115,000.
📈 Bullish Scenario
Price holds above support
EMA cluster continues to act as dynamic support
Break above $118,000 resistance could trigger the next rally toward $122,000+
BTC/USD 1H ShortTerm🔍 Trend:
The short-term uptrend remains in effect, supported by the orange trendline.
The price has tested dynamic support but has not yet broken it.
🟥 Supports (Important Levels):
🔻 1. 119.550
Key support.
The price is currently testing it. Holding = potential upside rebound.
Breaking = greater downside risk.
🔻 2. 117.260–118.040 USD
Clear demand zone (reinforced by prior consolidation).
If the price breaks below current support, this is the next logical stopping point.
🔻 3. 115.237–115.500 USD
Strong weekly support – very important in the event of a stronger correction.
Historically, it has responded many times.
🟩 Resistance:
🔼 1. USD 121.673
The nearest local resistance – this could pose a problem for further growth.
🔼 2. USD 123.961
The last local high. Breaking it confirms the continuation of the uptrend.
🔼 3. USD 125.785
The next resistance – a potential target after a breakout to the upside.
📈 Technical Indicators:
RSI (classic):
Still below 50, but starting to reverse slightly upward – neutral with a slight potential for a rebound.
Stochastic RSI:
Gives a long signal – the lines have crossed in the oversold zone and are pointing upward.
📊 Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish:
Maintaining the current support zone (119.5–120k).
Breakout above 121.673 → target: 123.961.
Breakout of 123.961 = trend confirmation and target: 125.8k+
🔴 Bearish:
Break of the trend line and support at 119.550 → possible quick decline to 117.2k–118k.
If this doesn't hold, target: 115.2k
✅ Summary:
Decisive moment – tested trend line + support = rebound or breakout point.
The Stochastic RSI indicates a potential upside breakout, but the RSI needs confirmation.
Careful monitoring of volume and reaction to 120k in the coming hours.
BTC #ARC Structure has breakout its levelThe chart shows a 15-minute BTC/USD timeframe forming a cup and handle pattern, a bullish continuation signal. Price has broken above the handle resistance zone (~$118,400), suggesting a potential breakout. The red vertical line marks the expected target, projecting a move toward the $119,600 level based on the pattern height.