Expect BTC/USD to drop to 102000 post-Fed rate decisionBTC/USD Update 📈
BTC rebounded from 103500 support, now at ~105500. Short-term correction may test 100000 psychological support ⚠️
I think the Fed's interest rate decision this time may cause BTCUSD to drop directly to 102000 .
⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@ 105000 - 104500
🚀 TP 102500 - 101500
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
BTCUSD.PM trade ideas
BTCUSD: Israel-Iran conflict like October 2024.Despite the Middle East tension, Bitcoin remains long term bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 63.167, MACD = 6883.200, ADX = 33.150). It remains supported on its 1D MA50, in fact in the same manner it was during the previous Israel-Iran conflict. I was on October 26th 2024, when Israel launched three waves of strikes against 20 locations in Iran and other locations in Iraq, and Syria. Simila to the June 13th 2025 attacks. It is more than striking how similar the two price patterns are. Assisted by the U.S. elections on November 5th 2024, a massive rally followed the Middle East conflict. A repeat of that may very well send Bitcoin to $150,000 and above.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Crypto consolidating ahead of rally towards All Time HighsWith US equity markets closed for Juneteenth, I'm checking in on an equal weight basket of cryptos. Recently I said crypto looked to be heating up for a run at new highs.
As I look today, prices appear range bound on the daily chart. There's a bearish double-top formation, beside declining momentum. The bottom of the range resting at the 200 Day Moving Average, and a test of it seems likely.
Should there be a bounce off the 200 Day SMA, and a break through the top end of the range we might get a shot at those new All Time Highs.
BTCUSD – CME Gap Gravity & AVWAP Staircase🕯️ 4H Chart Analysis | June 19, 2025
🎯 Targeting: $93.3K CME Gap | Confluence: AVWAP zones + Structure breaks
Thesis:
We're currently hanging off the edge of a volume profile cliff. Price is coiled beneath a broken rising wedge, hugging the POC from the prior rally. The key idea: liquidity has shifted, and the next high-probability move is a breakdown through key VWAP levels into the CME gap at ~$93.3K.
📉 Funding Shift:
Funding remains slightly negative or flat across major venues — signaling late longs are trapped and paying to hold.
📊 Open Interest Still Elevated:
– Total BTC OI: $69.41B
– CME OI: $16.50B (23.77%)
– Binance OI: $11.67B (16.8%)
– Bybit OI: $7.66B
– OKX OI: $4.02B
– CME is now the largest BTC derivatives venue by notional OI — institutionals dominate this range.
– Despite the recent drop, OI only fell -0.6% (24h) system-wide — leverage still bloated and vulnerable.
💱 CME Basis Compression:
June front-month futures trade only ~$35 above spot — basis compressed to ~0.03%. Carry trade is gone; CME gap below is now magnetic.
🛡️ Macro Narrative: Credential Meltdown
Today marks the largest password leak in digital history (16 billion credentials). If this leads to broader cybersecurity fear, crypto might feel downstream de-risking effects.
📉 Spot vs. Derivatives Skew:
Derivatives OI/volume is high; spot demand remains muted. Suggests price is levitating on leverage — not sustainable without real buyers.
📍 Invalidation Levels:
– Short-term: 4H close above $106.6K = invalidates immediate breakdown setup.
– Macro: Weekly close above $109K with rising OBV = negates CME gap gravity.
✍️ Execution Logic:
If $103K breaks alongside a $500M+ OI flush → scale into short
TP1: $100.3K, TP2: $97.6K, TP3: $93.3K CME gap
🟠 AVWAP targets:
- $102K (orange line) – currently being tested.
- $97.6K – Fib 0.382 zone + AVWAP cluster.
- $93.3K – CME Gap + “Golden Supply Zone” + Fib 0.5.
📉 Liquidity Logic:
- Shorts got squeezed early June — now the longs are stuck. Thin air below. If we nuke through $102K, the dominoes fall cleanly: AVWAP by AVWAP until CME gap closes.
Volume & Profile:
🟦 High-volume node just got pierced.
📉 We’re slipping below the POC — next major support is structurally far below.
Price Levels to Watch:
Immediate breakdown: $100.3K wick zone
Support fade targets:
🔹 $97.6K (Fib & AVWAP)
🟠 $93.3K (Gap)
🟢 $88.9K (Fib 0.618, possible overshoot)
Narrative Summary:
Shorts are gone, longs are sweating. This is the AVWAP death ladder scenario. CME gap acts like gravity when no major buyers step in. Until price reclaims above broken trend structure, every bounce is suspect.
BTC/USD Bearish Outlook AnalysisBTC/USD Bearish Outlook Analysis 📉🧠
📊 Technical Overview:
The BTC/USD chart is showing signs of a bearish structure formation, suggesting increased downside momentum in the short term.
🔻 Resistance Zone:
Clear resistance is identified near $110,345, marked by multiple price rejections (🔴 red arrows).
Price failed to break above this zone several times, indicating strong selling pressure.
🔸 Support Zone:
Strong support lies near the $100,000 psychological level.
Price has respected this zone multiple times (🟠 orange circles), indicating buyer interest.
📉 Current Price Action:
A descending trendline breakout attempt failed and price is now consolidating just below $105,000.
Price is forming a bearish flag/consolidation structure after recent rejection.
A breakdown from the current box range is likely to push BTC toward the support zone at $100,000.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If BTC breaks below $104,000, expect continuation towards $100,000.
A daily candle close below support could signal further downside.
📈 Invalidation:
Bullish invalidation occurs if BTC reclaims and closes above $108,000, with volume, retesting resistance at $110,345.
🧭 Summary:
BTC/USD is exhibiting a lower highs structure within a descending channel. Unless it breaks above the resistance zone, the bias remains bearish with a high probability of retesting support.
₿itcoin: Holding steadySince our last update, Bitcoin has traded in a relatively stable range. As expected, there's still a strong case for the crypto leader to climb into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. However, a deeper pullback below the $100,000 mark remains a real possibility before that move unfolds. Regardless of the path it takes, we continue to expect Bitcoin to reach this upper zone, completing green wave B. From there, a corrective wave C—also in green—is likely to follow, driving the price down toward the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. This move would mark the end of the broader orange wave a. For now, we’re watching for a potential b-wave recovery before the final leg lower toward the bottom of blue wave (ii) takes shape. That said, there's still a 30% chance that blue wave (i) isn’t done yet and could extend significantly above $130,891 before any meaningful correction begins.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
Bitcoin Hugging The Daily 50 MABitcoin continues to hover in familiar territory, and today’s chart doesn’t add much new drama – but it does offer some useful structure to work with.
Price is grinding just above the 50-day moving average, which currently sits around $104,000. That level has provided reliable support over the last few weeks and is now reinforced by horizontal support from the prior range breakout. A clean bounce here keeps the door open for another attempt at the $112,000 high, which remains the key resistance level to reclaim.
Below the current price, the structure is layered. The next major support sits around $100,700, and below that, the psychological $100K mark acts as a backstop. A break below that level could set the stage for a deeper pullback toward $92,800 or even $88,800 – both of which served as prior resistance and could now act as support.
Momentum remains weak, volume is nothing to write home about, and volatility has tapered off. But this type of coiling action often precedes a bigger move. The good news for bulls is that despite the chop, Bitcoin has consistently made higher lows – a sign of quiet accumulation and underlying strength.
Bottom line – Bitcoin is range-bound but respecting structure. As long as it holds above $104K, bulls are still in the game. Break below $100K, and the picture changes quickly. Stay nimble.
BTCUSD Analysis Today: Technical and On-Chain !In this video, I will share my BTCUSD analysis by providing my complete technical and on-chain insights, so you can watch it to improve your crypto trading skillset. The video is structured in 4 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the on-chain data analysis, then I will be moving to the liquidation maps analysis and lastly, I will be putting together these 3 different types of analysis.
The GENIUS Act: A Historic Breakthrough in Stablecoin RegulationIn the fast-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins have carved out a unique role, acting as a bridge between digital assets and traditional finance. Until recently, however, the regulatory framework for these instruments remained fragmented and unclear. The adoption of the GENIUS Act marks the first major step toward establishing a coherent regulatory system for stablecoins in the United States — an event already being hailed as a historic breakthrough.
What Is the GENIUS Act?
The GENIUS Act (short for "Guaranteeing Effective National Incorporation of Ubiquitous Stablecoins") is a legislative initiative designed to set clear rules for the issuance, backing, and circulation of stablecoins. Its primary goal is to ensure transparency, stability, and security for users, investors, and financial institutions engaging with these digital assets.
The bill has received bipartisan support, demonstrating a broad political consensus on the need to bring order and trust to the digital asset market.
Why Is It a Breakthrough?
Before the GENIUS Act, the legal status of stablecoins existed in a regulatory "gray area." Issuing companies often faced uncertainty: were they subject to banking laws, SEC oversight, or fintech regulations? This ambiguity led to high-profile lawsuits, account freezes, and declining institutional trust.
The GENIUS Act introduces:
A licensing framework for stablecoin issuers, requiring 100% reserves in fiat currency or secure liquid assets
Mandatory audit and reporting standards, including independent verification and public disclosures
Clear separation between fiat-backed and algorithmic stablecoins, acknowledging their different risk profiles
Mechanisms for coordination with the Federal Reserve, paving the way for stablecoin integration into the broader financial infrastructure
Impact on the Market
The passage of the GENIUS Act has already had a ripple effect. Major issuers like Circle (USDC) and Paxos have expressed their readiness to comply with the new standards. Meanwhile, less transparent players are beginning to lose market share.
Institutional investors — including banks and asset managers — are increasingly viewing stablecoins as a reliable instrument for payments and capital storage. This growing confidence could be the key to the mass adoption of Web3 apps, decentralized finance (DeFi), and digital commerce.
Global Significance
The GENIUS Act also sets a precedent for other countries. Just as the U.S. once led the way in traditional financial regulation, it is now establishing benchmarks for digital assets. The EU, UK, Singapore, and others are closely analyzing the bill’s elements for adoption in their own jurisdictions.
Conclusion
The passage of the GENIUS Act represents a historic step toward crypto market maturity. It not only eliminates regulatory uncertainty but also lays the groundwork for sustainable digital economic growth. For the first time, stablecoins have a clear, institutionally recognized legal status — marking the transition from chaotic innovation to structured trust.
Iran-Israel Affected Btc MarketThe conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated since the initial strike on Friday. After sustaining a wide-scale strike on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders, Iran retaliated by launching drones and missile attacks on Israel.
Reuters reports that Iran has rejected calls for a ceasefire, while Israel has vowed to make Tehran pay for Monday's dawn attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa. The world remains on edge amid looming escalation.
Ascending Inverse H&S on the BTC weekly chartThe longer it takes to break above this neckline the higher the breakout target will be. I have arbitrarily placed the measured move line at July 18th 2025. If the breakout were to happen on that day the measured move target is around 208k, which could take quite awhile to reach or if we entered a truly hyperparabolic blow off top we could reach such a target way quicker than when the dotted measured move line reaches it. *not financial advice*
BITCOIN All boxes checked. Couldn't be more bullish than this!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has filled numerous bullish conditions with the latest being holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This is basically the 3rd time testing and holding it since June 05. Even if that doesn't hold, we have the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) directly below it as the ultimate long-term Support.
This trend-line just so happens to be exactly on the neckline of the Right Shoulder on the long-term Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern that has been in development since December 17 2024.
On top of all these, the market also formed a 1D Golden Cross a month ago, always a strong long-term bullish signal. IH&S patterns typically target their 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which sits at $168000.
Is that another indication that Bitcoin is going after 150k at least on its next run? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Warning: BTC Just Got Rejected HARD — Next Stop $101KBTCUSDT 4H Technical Analysis – Bearish Setup in Motion
The current 4-hour chart of BTCUSDT on Binance paints a clearly bearish picture, driven by strong confluence between the Ichimoku Cloud system, price structure, and descending trend channel. Market sentiment has shifted from indecision to downside control, and unless bulls reclaim critical zones soon, a drop toward $101,900 appears highly likely.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish Confirmation on Multiple Levels
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator in this setup plays a dominant role in forming the bearish bias. First, the price action has broken below the Kumo (cloud) and is currently rejecting it from the underside. This behavior alone signals a shift in sentiment, as the cloud now acts as dynamic resistance.
The Tenkan-sen (conversion line), shown in blue, has crossed below the Kijun-sen (baseline) in red—this is a strong bearish crossover. Notably, this crossover occurred below the cloud, which within Ichimoku principles is considered one of the most powerful bearish signals available. It reflects a synchronized decline in both short-term and medium-term momentum.
Furthermore, the future cloud (Senkou Span A and B projection) is flat and shaded in red, signaling weak bullish momentum ahead and strengthening the case for a downward continuation. Flat Kumo tops also indicate a magnet for price, often pulling it back for a re-test before continuation—precisely what is unfolding here.
The Chikou Span (lagging line), which plots the current price 26 periods back, is well below both the price and the Kumo. This further confirms that market sentiment, momentum, and trend direction are all biased to the downside.
Price Structure and Trend Channel
Overlaying the chart is a clearly defined descending parallel channel, capturing the recent series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has respected this channel on multiple occasions, rebounding near its bounds and reacting to its midline as dynamic support and resistance.
Currently, BTCUSDT is moving lower after retesting the mid-range of this descending channel, which aligns with the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud. This overlap creates a powerful resistance confluence between $104,600 and $105,800—exactly where price was rejected in the most recent candle clusters.
The repeated failure to break back into the cloud shows that supply pressure is overwhelming, and bulls are losing grip of any short-term recovery.
Liquidity Zones and Risk-Reward Mapping
A red shaded area marks the resistance zone, aligning with the upper boundary of the cloud and the mid-channel structure. This region, between $104,600 and $105,900, has repeatedly acted as a rejection area and represents where sellers are currently stepping in with confidence.
Meanwhile, the projected target is highlighted through the green shaded rectangle, roughly between $101,900 and $102,200, representing the next strong demand zone and the lower boundary of the descending channel.
The downward arrow on the chart visually reinforces this bearish idea, indicating a continuation of the current momentum toward those support levels.
Trade Setup Based on Chart
This current structure provides a clean, high-probability trade opportunity for bearish traders looking to capitalize on further downside in BTC:
• Entry Zone: $104,500 – $105,000
• Stop Loss: Above $106,200 (just above cloud resistance and recent rejection wicks)
• Target: $101,900
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.3 (depending on entry)
Final Thoughts
The technical case for shorting BTCUSDT here is robust. The Ichimoku system aligns on all fronts—price below the cloud, bearish Tenkan/Kijun crossover under the Kumo, a red future cloud, and a bearish Chikou Span. On top of that, price action is obeying a descending channel and just rejected from its midpoint.
If this setup plays out as expected, BTC is likely to retest the $101,900 region before bulls attempt to regain control. Scalpers may consider dynamic trailing stops below $104,000, but positional shorts can hold with clear invalidation above the red cloud zone.
99K and 97.5K potential targetsMorning folks,
As you can see, not occasionally last time we chose only nearest 107K and 109K targets. Market indeed looks a bit heavy. Now short-term context turns bearish and we consider reaching of 99K target as rather high. Next potential target area is 97.K - butterfly target and daily Fib support.
Obviously now we do not consider any new longs and need some clear signs of sentiment changing, that we do not have by far. Let's see what will happen around support area
BTC market update 19 6 ,2025The chart you've shared is a 1-hour BTC/USD (Bitcoin to USD) chart from Bitstamp, and it illustrates several technical patterns and a possible bearish setup:
Key Observations:
1. Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish):
From June 13–17, a rising wedge pattern formed (higher highs, higher lows, converging trendlines).
This pattern broke down sharply around June 17, which typically signals bearish momentum.
2. Bear Flag/Range Consolidation:
After the drop, BTC entered a sideways consolidation (highlighted in a red box), forming a rectangular range between ~104,950 resistance and ~102,830 support.
This could be interpreted as a bear flag or a distribution phase, suggesting continuation of the prior downtrend.
3. Bearish Projection:
The blue zig-zag line with the downward arrow suggests the analyst expects a break below the 102,830 support.
If this happens, further downside is likely. The measured move target could be projected from the height of the range (~2,100 points) below the breakdown point.
Summary:
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Key Support: 102,830
Key Resistance: 104,950
Next Move: Breakdown below 102,830 could lead to a drop toward ~100,700 or lower, if the bear flag confirms.
Would you like a trading idea or stop-loss/take-profit suggestions based on this pattern?
Bitcoin extended cycle, $120,000-$140,000 next july-augustBitcoin looks like its gonna be a good summer imo, too much people say it will a boring summer and we top in oktober-dec but what if we top in august and drop 50%, and sep-dec will be correction month, and we continue the bullrun end 2025 till q1 2026 and we print a top in q1 2026,
Bitcoin, Interest rates & Key fundamental points since 2021
The Growing question is just how much does the American Federal Reserve interest rate changes effect Bitcoin.
We can see how in 2022, it appears they did but from late 2022 and early 2023, it doesn't seem to.
Bitcoin began its rise even while rates were being put up.
The Fundimental Key points may have had more impact but again, there are moments were we can see something that should have been Great for BTC, had little effect and Visa Versa.
Has Bitcon Truly Broken away from being effected by the worlds "largest" economy ?
We are currently seeing the ever growing threat of WW3 and Rates being Kept artificially High by the US Fed Reserve. The EU Central banks has already reduced its rate twice while the USA remained with no change )
And Bitcoin remains stable.
And Bitcoins international adoption continues.
STACK SATS
BTCUSD 15M CHART PATTERNHere's a structured breakdown of your BTC/USD trade setup:
---
🟢 Buy Entry
Price: 105,000
---
🎯 Take Profit Levels
1. TP1: 105,700
2. TP2: 106,900
3. TP3: 108,844
---
🔴 Stop Loss
Price: 103,530
---
📊 Risk-Reward Summary (approximate)
Risk: 1,470 points (105,000 - 103,530)
Reward:
TP1: +700 points → RR ≈ 0.48
TP2: +1,900 points → RR ≈ 1.29
TP3: +3,844 points → RR ≈ 2.62
---
✅ Tips
Consider partial exits at each TP to lock in profits.
Use trailing stops after TP1 to secure gains and reduce risk.
Make sure you adjust position size according to your total capital and the stop loss distance to manage risk effectively.
Would you like a visual chart, trade script, or risk calculator based on this setup?