Bitcoin at a Generational Crossroads : The $115k Decision Point Chart: BTC/USD, Monthly Timeframe
Bias: Neutral to Bearish if key resistance holds.
Idea: This is a long-term analysis based on historical price action within a multi-year channel.
Summary (The Thesis):
This analysis looks at Bitcoin's price action on the monthly chart, contained within a large, ascending parallel channel that has defined bull and bear cycles for years. We are currently testing the upper boundary of this channel, a historical resistance zone.
My thesis is that the $110,000 - $115,000 zone represents a critical decision point for the entire market. A failure to decisively break above this level could initiate a significant, multi-month pullback to reset market sentiment and gather liquidity before the next major leg up.
The Macro Analysis (The "Why") :
The Ascending Channel: As you can see on the monthly chart, Bitcoin's price has respected this ascending channel since 2017. The upper line has consistently acted as a major distribution zone and cycle top (marked with red arrows), while the lower line has served as a generational buying opportunity (marked with green arrows). We are currently at the upper line.
Historical Resistance: History shows that the first test of this upper channel boundary is rarely successful. The price often requires a significant consolidation or a deep correction before it can muster the strength to break into a new price paradigm.
Market Mechanics & Liquidity: From a market mechanics perspective, a massive number of longs have entered the market since the move up from the $70k-$75k range. A "huge pullback" would serve to liquidate these late, over-leveraged positions, allowing market makers to absorb liquidity and build the necessary foundation for a sustainable break of the all-time high later on.
BTCUSD.PM trade ideas
BTC/USD Faces Key Support—What’s Next for Bitcoin? FenzoFx—Bitcoin dipped from its $112,000 monthly high, now trading near $104,900. Liquidity was swept, forming immediate support at $102,746.
Stochastic signals an oversold market, suggesting potential consolidation or an uptrend resumption. BTC/USD must close above $105,706 for bullish momentum, targeting $112,000.
A rejection at $102,746 may invalidate bullish outlooks, driving BTC toward $100,377.
BUY OPPORTUNITYBTC/USD Trade Signal
Entry: $102,100
Stop Loss: $99,350
Take Profit: $110,446
Time Frame: 4H
Technical Analysis:
Price is currently rangebound between $102,100 and $112,000. Entering at the support level of $102,100 offers a favorable risk-reward ratio of approximately 1.3. The RSI is at 35 and facing downward, suggesting a potential rebound that could drive a rally toward local resistance. Additionally, the ADX reading of 27 indicates a moderate trend, which supports this trade setup.
Fundamental Analysis:
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is scheduled for release today, which is expected to provide positive market momentum, further supporting the bullish outlook.
Cyclical Cluster Timing + Market Geometry for BTCThis setup is based on the confluence between price geometry and a cyclical cluster model. I’ve normalized the cycle intensity scale across all timeframes better to highlight high-probability timing windows for potential trend changes.
Tables are proprietary timing cluster models (freely accessible by request).
BITCOIN is only now starting the final Cycle rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) took a hit overnight following the Israel attack on Iran and at the moment the consequences of that action can't be quantified in great detail but on the long-term the bullish trend seems intact.
In fact it remains below the historic Pivot Growth Curve (PGC) that has separated BTC's peak pattern (green Arcs) from bottom and accumulation (red Arcs), and could be tested by next month.
Once broken, the real rally towards the Cycle's peak can start, with most previous studies we conducted showing that $150000 is a fair (if not modest) estimate.
Are you worried about the latest geopolitical conflict or this chart is enough to give you long-term assurances? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCBitcoin experienced a significant drop due to the news about the war in Iran. The price tested a lower support level and then rebounded from that point. We'll have to monitor how the situation in the war unfolds in the coming days. If the price breaks below $103,000, it could fall to the support area between $100,000 and $101,000.
BTCUSD (BITCOIN) Selling From key resistance 111.700BTCUSD BREAKOUT ALERT
BTCUSD has recently broken out from the ascending channel and is currently experiencing strong selling pressure after hitting the key resistance level at $111,700.
🔻 Technical Targets 🔻
1st Target: $105,400
2nd Target: $101,600
📊 Time Frame: 4-Hour
Stay tuned for more updates and insights on the market! 🚀
💬 Don't forget to like, follow, and comment below for more real-time analysis.
BTCUSD testing ascending channel Fundamental:
Bitcoin reels from geopolitical shockwaves as markets brace for an escalation of Middle East tensions.
Meanwhile, spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows exceeding 200 mln USD, reflecting weaker institutional appetite.
With global markets faltering, volatility remaining elevated, and sentiment fragile, risk assets like bitcoin face renewed pressure.
Technical:
BTCUSD retreated below the ascending channel's upper bound and is currently testing the channel's lower bound and Ichimoku Cloud. If BTCUSD breaks the channel's lower bound and psychological level at 100000, the price could extend its decline to the following support at 92500. Conversely, a rebound from the channel's lower bound and break above the resistance at 11200 could prompt a further rise toward the channel's resistance and Fibonacci Confluence levels near 120000.
BTCUSD 6/12/2025Here's a screenshot of current Price Action, at the level where we can anticipate Price to encounter its Bullish Continuation. I also made a video breaking down Bitcoins Price Action that somehow didn't upload here, but wait... It's uploaded on my YT so go Tap In!
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Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin.
K1 and K2 verified a potential strong support,
If the following candles K5 or K6 close upon the downtrend line like K2,
Another bull run will keep climbing up.
It will be a good place to buy it around the downtrend line.
If the following candles consolidate around the resistance to verify the bullish momentum,
It will also a good place to buy it around the resistance.
On the other hand,
If K5 or K6 close below K4 to verify the resistance,
The market will fall to test the support for more times,
I will try to buy it at about 100K area.
Long-101618/Stop-100618/Target-120K
Long-103188/Stop-102188/Target-120K
$BTC Post Market update - Bearish MenaceHello Fellow Gamblers,
In this video I talk about our current bullish scenario and bring back the bearish scenario that I shared with you a few days ago since they are both still at play.
- We need the 4h to close above 104k and to reject the trendline for the bullish scenario to play out. A close below 104k will take us to a really dangerous zone at that 101k and increase the chances for the bearish scenario to playout.
- Levels to watch: 110.5k, 106.8k, 104.3k, 101k.
BTC - No champange toast Well, that was unfortunate. BTC too the very beating that was forecasted. Demonstrating the power of the combined methods that I use. Murrey Math, Elliot Wave, and K wave ( Kumar Wave ) We have a small chance, in the low single digits to recover from this. But the Lions share of probability remains with the Re test down toward $84k. I will update more later. That chart is in my profile. Good luck.
Potential bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 107,000.93
1st Support: 104,300.41
1st Resistance: 108,341.47
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Bitcoin’s Decentralization Is a Fairy TaleBitcoin was born as a revolutionary, decentralized currency, promising financial freedom and independence from traditional banking systems. Yet, as we analyze its real-world distribution, it becomes clear that Bitcoin’s decentralization is more myth than reality.
🔍 The Illusion of Decentralization
Bitcoin operates on a decentralized blockchain, meaning no single entity controls the network. However, when we examine who actually owns Bitcoin, we see a highly concentrated wealth structure that mirrors traditional financial inequality.
📊 Bitcoin’s Wealth Concentration
The top 0.01% of Bitcoin wallets control over 37% of total supply.
The top 1% of Bitcoin holders control over 40% of Bitcoin.
The top 2% of Bitcoin wallets control over 95% of total supply.
The bottom 98% of wallets hold less than 5% of Bitcoin.
The bottom 50% of wallets hold less than 0.03% of Bitcoin.
10,000 Bitcoin investors own 5 million BTC, worth $230 billion.
Institutional investors and early adopters dominate Bitcoin ownership.
This means that a tiny fraction of wallets dominate the entire market, while millions of small holders own completely insignificant amounts.
💰 Bitcoin vs Traditional Wealth Inequality
Bitcoin was supposed to be more equitable than traditional finance, but its wealth distribution is even more extreme than global financial inequality.
Bitcoin’s wealth gap is far worse than traditional financial inequality, proving that decentralization does not mean fair distribution.
📉 How Did Bitcoin Become So Centralized?
1. Early Adopters Accumulated Massive Holdings
Bitcoin’s first miners and tech-savvy investors acquired BTC when it was nearly worthless.
Many of these wallets still hold huge amounts, making redistribution difficult.
2. Institutional Investors Took Over
Hedge funds, exchanges, and corporations now control a massive portion of BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs and custodial wallets concentrate ownership even further.
3. Lost & Dormant Bitcoin Shrinks Circulating Supply
An estimated 29% of Bitcoin is lost or inactive, meaning fewer coins are available.
This makes the remaining BTC even more concentrated among active holders.
🚨 The Harsh Reality: Bitcoin Is Not Financial Freedom
Bitcoin was supposed to empower individuals, but in practice, it has become a playground for the wealthy.
Decentralization in theory ≠ decentralization in reality.
Institutional investors and exchanges hold a massive portion of BTC.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21 million BTC) makes redistribution nearly impossible.
Bitcoin is not the democratized financial system it was promised to be—it’s just another asset class where the rich get richer.
NASDAQ:MSTR NYSE:CRCL NASDAQ:COIN TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:TSLA TVC:DXY NASDAQ:HOOD NASDAQ:MARA
BTC 4-hour cycle bullish expectationsFocus on the point around 105000. This is the Fibonacci retracement of 50%, and it is also a demand area.
Observe whether there is a reversal signal, and try to buy.
Another important observation point is around 104200. This is the Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%.
BTCUSDEventually anything goes up sooner or later goes down especially speculative and high liquidity market this is the system or core process and nothing is impossible.
Again, it's just simple prediction based on simple technical analysis there are so many other factors involve where to market would be next move means its only just forming not confirmed yet once again just scenario. NOT FA.
BTCUSD: Can it repeat the U.S. elections rally?Bitcoin is on a slight pullback, being only marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.024, MACD = 1611.500, ADX = 23.439). Based on the 1W RSI we may be on the October 30th - November 4th 2024 pullback that preceded the U.S. elections. The decisive test will be on the 1D MA50 again, but as long as the S1 level holds, chances are we will see a similar +106.40% rally. We remain bullish on BTC, TP = 150,000.
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