BTC – Bulls still in controlBTC is trading around 117,800 USD, well above both the EMA 50 (111,800) and the pivot level (105,300), confirming bullish dominance. Price remains below the upper Bollinger Band (123,400), leaving potential room for continuation.
Momentum stays constructive, with RSI at 60 and MACD in a strong positive zone, reflecting sustained upward pressure. As long as price holds above EMA 50 and pivot, the next upside targets lie at 123,400 and R1 at 110,000 has already been surpassed.
Volume has dropped significantly (-31%), suggesting the latest move could lack conviction or represent a pause rather than a breakout.
As long as BTC holds above 111,800, the bullish scenario remains intact.
Watch for any rejection near 123,400 or a close back below the EMA as potential invalidation signals.
BTCUSD.PM trade ideas
BTC/USD — Potential Bullish BreakoutBitcoin is currently retesting a key intraday level after pulling back from recent highs. If price continues to hold above this level, potential for break above previous highs.
As long as the structure holds and continue bullish momentum. However, if price slips back below the level with momentum, this scenario may be invalidated.
📌 Bias: Neutral to Bullish
📌 Timeframe: Intraday / Short-term
📌 Key Level to Watch: 118K
BTCUSD BUBBLE ABOUT TO BURST LOL ??? SELL SELL SELLLong term BTCUSD looks like BIG PLAYERS ARE TAKING PROFIT (about to dump this to retailers lol)
I see 15m signal sell with very good risk reward
BTCUSD its ready for correction i dont beleave we will see any NEW HIGHS from here
Let see how will pay out, only time will tell
Thanks
Protect Capital First, Trade SecondIn the world of trading, mastering technical analysis or finding winning strategies is only part of the equation. One of the most overlooked but essential skills is money management. Even the best trading strategy can fail without a solid risk management plan.
Here’s a simple but powerful money management framework that helps you stay disciplined, protect your capital, and survive long enough to grow.
✅1. Risk Only 2% Per Trade
The 2% rule means you risk no more than 2% of your total capital on a single trade.
-Example: If your trading account has $10,000, your maximum loss per trade should not exceed $200.
-This protects you from large losses and gives you enough room to survive a losing streak without major damage.
A disciplined approach to risk keeps your emotions under control and prevents you from blowing your account.
✅2. Limit to 5 Trades at a Time
Keeping your number of open trades under control is essential to avoid overexposure and panic management.
-A maximum of 5 open trades allows you to monitor each position carefully.
-It also keeps your total account risk within acceptable limits (2% × 5 trades = 10% total exposure).
-This rule encourages you to be selective, focusing only on the highest quality setups.
Less is more. Focus on better trades, not more trades.
✅3. Use Minimum 1:2 or 1:3 Risk-Reward Ratio
Every trade must be worth the risk. The Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) defines how much you stand to gain compared to how much you’re willing to lose.
-Minimum RRR: 1:2 or 1:3
Risk $100 to make $200 or $300
-This allows you to be profitable even with a win rate below 50%.
Example:
If you take 10 trades risking $100 per trade:
4 wins at $300 = $1,200
6 losses at $100 = $600
→ Net profit = $600, even with only 40% accuracy.
A poor RRR forces you to win frequently just to break even. A strong RRR gives you room for error and long-term consistency.
✅4. Stop and Review After 30% Drawdown
Drawdowns are a part of trading, but a 30% drawdown from your account's peak is a red alert.
When you hit this level:
-Stop trading immediately.
-Conduct a full review of your past trades:
-Were your losses due to poor strategy or poor execution?
-Did you follow your stop-loss and risk rules?
-Were there changes in the market that invalidated your setups?
You must identify the problem before you continue trading. Without review, you risk repeating the same mistakes and losing more.
This is not failure; it’s a checkpoint to reset and rebuild your edge.
Final Thoughts: Survive First, Thrive Later
In trading, capital protection is the first priority. Profits come after you've mastered control over risk. No trader wins all the time, but the ones who respect risk management survive the longest.
Here’s your survival framework:
📉 Risk max 2% per trade
🧠 Limit to 5 trades
⚖️ Maintain minimum 1:2 or 1:3 RRR
🛑 Pause and review after 30% drawdown
🧘 Avoid revenge trading and burnout
Follow these principles and you won't just trade, you'll trade with discipline, confidence, and longevity.
Cheers
Hexa
BTCUSD 4HOUR TIME FRAME ANALYSISCurrently bearish on the 4-hour chart with lower highs and lower lows forming consistently.
Price Action: BTCUSD recently broke below a key support zone around 116,000, turning it into a fresh resistance. The market shows bearish momentum as price fails to reclaim above that zone.
Candlestick Patterns: Multiple bearish engulfing candles confirm selling pressure near the 115,500–116,000 area.
BITCOIN Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 118,337.45.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 113,068.85.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BTCUSDBTCUSD also fell from a high level, reaching a high of around 119700, only 300 points away from the target of 120k. The price after the decline is now around 118600. Buying at a low level is the main focus. The reference buying point is 118500-118000. The target is above 120k. Stop loss 117300
Bitcoin ConsolidatesBitcoin continues to flex its strength, grinding higher and holding firm just below resistance at $123,231. After breaking out above $112,000 earlier this month with a burst of volume and momentum, price has cooled off slightly, consolidating in a tight range between $117K and $123K. This isn’t weakness – it’s digestion. A bullish pause. Traders are clearly eyeing the next move, and so far, the chart looks like it’s winding up for another push.
Support at $112,000 has held cleanly, and the 50-day moving average is trending steadily upward, now comfortably below price – a textbook sign of bullish structure. If $123K breaks, it could set off a new leg higher, potentially triggering another wave of FOMO. But even a drop back to $112K would keep the uptrend intact, with secondary support around $105K offering a strong safety net.
Volume tells the story too. It surged during the breakout and has since tapered off, which is exactly what you’d expect during a calm consolidation. In short: BTC looks healthy, poised, and still in charge. The next big move could be just around the corner – and right now, the bulls have the edge.
Total to 5T & BTC to...?Morning fellas,
No way BTC is stopping here. People are gonna get reckt shorting, and are not gonna believe where this price action is gonna stop.
TOTAL must reach anywhere between 4.5T & 5T, this spread across all Alts.
It has been a long time coming, and the party hasnt even started yet.
Hold your horses and trade thirsty, my friends!
BTC – Final Push Before the Top? Here's What I’m WatchingBeen getting a lot of questions recently about where I think BTC tops this cycle, so I figured it’s time to lay out what I’m seeing on the higher timeframes and what could be coming next.
First off, I want to stress this again — USDT.D will be the key chart for spotting the top. It’s been one of the most accurate indicators across the board for understanding tops and bottoms. But it’s even more powerful when used alongside broader structure and confluence, which is what I’m doing here.
Looking at BTC’s high timeframe structure, I’ve been tracking this ascending trend channel since 2023 — and we’ve remained within its bounds beautifully. Every leg up has been met with a reaction near the channel highs, while each major correction has tapped into the lower channel support or just below midline before continuing the trend.
Right now, price is pushing back up toward that upper channel resistance, and if it behaves like it has previously, I’d expect it to act as a major magnet again. That aligns with a projected range of $140,000 to $160,000, depending how deep the wick runs or how extended this move gets from the channel midline.
On top of that, fib extensions from the previous high to low give us another layer of confidence. We’ve already seen a reaction at the 1.272 level, which paused price temporarily. The next big fib? The 1.618 — which sits right around $138k — adding confluence with the top of this HTF trend channel.
What makes this even more interesting is that this move is aligning near-perfectly with the 4-year cycle structure, which suggests a potential cycle top around September 2025. That’s roughly two months away, and it fits the pattern of previous cycles where BTC tops approximately 18–20 months post-halving.
As we approach this zone, I’ll be watching for the usual signs: slowing momentum, bearish divergence, volume anomalies, and rejection candles into resistance. But I won’t just be relying on the BTC chart alone. I’ll be stacking confluences from other key indicators too — USDT.D, BTC.D, macro risk indicators, and stablecoin flows — to confirm if this is truly the top or if there’s one more leg left in the tank.
Once the top does form, whether it's $138k or $160k or somewhere in between, I think we move into the distribution phase that begins the next macro downtrend. The next few years will be about preservation and accumulation again, and I’m already eyeing zones like $49k and below as potential long-term HTF demand levels when that time comes.
For now, we’re in what I believe is the final bullish leg of this cycle. I’m positioned, prepared, and watching closely for signs of exhaustion as we move into this zone of confluence.
Let the market do its thing — just make sure you’ve got a plan for when the music stops.
A Legends Continuation. BTCHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today we are going to look at a trade inspired by the Legendary Trader and Scalper Al Brooks.
If you are not familiar with him I recommend having a strong foundation with price action before giving him a look.
It's no secret that BTC is at levels many thought it would never reach, and yet many others are convinced of 5 - 10x more from this run alone. It can be crushing to feel like you missed out on the move, so instead of getting FOMO, I've detailed a guide to help you in the short or the long term.
Long Term
As of right now you are looking at 4 different levels of demand. It is up to you to measure your conviction, understanding why you want to invest, and how much you are willing to risk. Recognize that Many Big hedge funds have been hesitant with accumulating hoards of Crypto do to its volatile nature, considering it too risky.
So with this in mind, I have given you 4 levels to add BTC to your long term depending on your personal conviction.
Hyper Aggressive = Top of Demand $115,500 (willing to risk 50%)
Aggressive = Demand $99,500-101,250 (willing to risk 40%)
Fair Price = Strong Demand $74,000 - 78,000 (willing to risk 25%)
Steal = Extreme Demand $42,000 - 50,800 (willing to risk 10%)
Thinking about how much you are willing to risk will help you level out your Fear of missing this move, and get pricing that meets your personal demand.
Short Term
My fellow traders, this is a nugget (inspired) from Al Brooks. The "Two Bar Trend Break" .
In a strong trend (not in a range), When you get a trend break (I like to go top of wick to top of wick for this trade), if the second bar doesn't have a huge topping tail, but closes near the top, you can enter this trade.
Here is a trade that happened this month That hasn't filled yet (it got close).
Entry At the close of the second green candle $116,000.
Measure the bottom of the First candle that broke (called the Signal candle) to the top of the second bar that broke (called the Entery Candle). If you take that measurement, and add it to your take profit, you will have a 1R Scalp (1 measure of risk to 1 measure of reward).
This isn't a true scalp, typically they should be in the same bar or next bar, but this follows similar principles.
That's all for BTC, stay tuned for more analysis as we go over Ethereum, XRP, and one more of your choosing.
Happy Trading!
@thecafetrader
BTC/USD Buy Setup (6H Chart)📈 BTC/USD Buy Setup (6H Chart)
Strategy: Trendline Support Bounce
🔹 Entry
Price: $118,674.3
Reason: Price is bouncing off a supportive trendline and holding above the 1st Support zone.
🔻 Stop Loss (SL)
Price: $114,470.6
Reason: Below the 1st Support zone to protect against breakdown.
🎯 Take Profit Targets
TP1: $123,269.6
Reason: Near recent swing high, good for partial profit.
TP2: $127,661.4
Reason: Next resistance zone, ideal for full exit or trailing stop.
#MJTrading
#Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Analysis and Bullish Continuation PredictionThis analysis focuses on the Bitcoin/US Dollar 4-hour chart from Coinbase, highlighting a potential bullish continuation based on recent price action as of July 22, 2025. The chart shows a strong upward trend with a recent pullback, suggesting a possible rejection point near the pivot line at $115,672.23.
Putting myself in the reader’s shoes, I’d want to understand the key levels driving this prediction. The 1-hour and 2-hour support area around $107,656.23 has held firm, providing a solid base. The price recently approached the key resistance at $120,183.08, where it faced rejection, indicating a potential ceiling. If the price breaks above this resistance with strong volume, it could signal a continuation toward $123,000.00 or higher.
My thought process involves identifying the pivot point ($115,672.23) as a critical level. A bounce from this level, supported by the 1h/2h support zone, suggests bullish momentum. However, if the price fails to hold above $115,672.23 and drops below $107,656.23, it could invalidate this outlook, pointing to a deeper correction.
Profit Targets:
Short-term: $120,183.08 (key resistance)
Long-term: $123,000.00 (bullish continuation)
Stop Loss: $107,656.23 (below the 1h/2h support area)
These clearly defined targets and stop loss levels should help clarify the trade idea and manage risk effectively.
Bitcoin on the edge – Is a sharp drop coming?Bitcoin is keeping investors on edge as price action remains volatile and primed for an explosive move once news or capital flows ignite the market.
🌍 Latest market updates:
– Whales are back in accumulation mode, with on-chain data showing large wallets growing rapidly.
– The U.S. government has just transferred a significant amount of BTC to exchanges — is a dump coming?
– U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are witnessing record inflows after CPI came in lower than expected, fueling hopes that the Fed will pause further rate hikes this year.
📉 Technical outlook:
– On the H4 chart, BTC formed a tightening wedge pattern, which has now broken to the downside.
– A steep drop toward the 113,000 to 110,000 USD zone is entirely possible.
This looks like a classic break-retest setup — a golden window for strategic entries. If sell volume surges, it could be the perfect moment for bears to strike.
Stay sharp — and good luck!
BTC/USD (1H) – Smart Money OutlookCurrent price testing a strong OB zone + Day Low support ($117,300–$117,400) after clean MSS and minor BOS. Structure signals liquidity manipulation and SMC play setting up.
🔍 Key Scenarios:
🟣 Bullish Reversal Case:
Bullish reaction from OB zone → long confirmation
Targets:
TP1: $118,800 (Bearish Bias)
TP2: $120,150 (Day High Liquidity Zone)
🟠 Bearish Continuation Case:
Weak Low + SSL gets swept
Price moves toward deeper POI zone ($116,300–$116,500)
Look for reversal confirmation from there.
📌 Confluences:
Clear OB zone with previous support reaction
SSL liquidity below current level
RSI near oversold
MACD showing early bearish momentum slowing
📚 Bias: Neutral to Bullish – Watching OB reaction for confirmation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Always manage risk smartly.
BTC Bulls Defend Key Zone Eyes on $123K Breakout ExtensionBitcoin has successfully completed a breakout above the prior weekly high structure, followed by a healthy pullback which is currently unfolding into a bullish pennant formation. The key highlight is how price is retesting the neckline zone with precision, which now doubles as a strong immediate buyback zone.
The reaction from this level is already showing strong bullish momentum, with price gearing up to challenge the previous ATH. A breakout above that resistance should unlock the path toward the projected $116.5k and $123.4k targets as shown on the chart. Failure to hold the Immediate Buyback Zone opens the door toward the Strong Demand Zone, which remains a valid re-accumulation point within this bullish cycle.
Stay sharp. The structure remains intact unless the neckline fails decisively.
BTC/USD – 4H Technical and Fundamental AnalysisBTC/USD – 4H Technical and Fundamental Analysis
BTC/USD saw sharp downside pressure today, driven by a wave of long position liquidations—exceeding $800 million across the crypto market in the past 24 hours. The sudden shift triggered panic selling, dragging Bitcoin below its psychological and technical support near $116,000. Broader crypto market sentiment turned risk-off as large investors reduced exposure, accelerating the sell-off.
Fundamentally, the market remains cautious amid a lack of positive macroeconomic catalysts for risk assets. Speculation about stricter U.S. regulatory oversight and declining inflows into crypto ETFs also dampened sentiment. Combined with hawkish remarks from Fed officials, which keep interest rates elevated, appetite for high-risk assets like Bitcoin weakened further.
From a technical perspective, BTC/USD broke below the major support level of $116,000, confirming bearish pressure. This breakdown followed a period of consolidation, with price failing to maintain bullish momentum. A liquidity hunt appears to be underway, with price revisiting the zone to trap breakout traders before resuming its move.
We are now watching for a confirmed 4H candle close below the liquidity zone. Once confirmed, a short setup is validated, with targets aligned with the next key support zone.
📍 Sell Setup
Entry: Sell Limit at 115,980.00
Stop Loss: 117,985.00
Take Profit: 111,940.00
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.