BTC/USD indicating a potential trend reversal signal.Current Price: Approximately $108,497.
Trading Strategy Elements:
CHoCH (Change of Character): Marked near a consolidation area, indicating a potential trend reversal signal.
CB (Continuation Block) and BOS (Break of Structure): Highlighted zones showing important structural breaks and continuation patterns in the price action.
Trendline: A diagonal support line is drawn, showing the general direction of the upward trend before a pullback occurred.
Target Zones: Clearly defined with color-coded boxes indicating expected price movements.
First Target: Around $109,000.
Second Target: Around $110,500.
Final Target: Just above $111,500.
Time and Date: The chart is timestamped May 24, 2025, with the local system time showing 9:27 AM.
This setup indicates a bullish bias based on structure analysis, with clearly planned take-profit targets, likely forming part of a smart money or institutional trading strategy. The analyst appears to be preparing for a potential long position following a reversal from a recent low.
BTCUSD trade ideas
Double top on 4 hr? End of bull run?The 4-hour chart shows a clear double top formation, accompanied by diminishing volume as we approach the end of May. The old saying "sell in May and walk away" suggests a high probability of a retracement down to previous support levels, indicating the potential end of this bull run. Historically, bull runs often conclude around this time (@585 days so far), and while it is possible that a new all-time high of $12,800 could be reached, retail interest is dwindling. The charts indicate that profit-taking is beginning to occur.
While institutional buying is currently propping up the price, it raises the question of how long this can last. A significant proportion of holders are already in profit, making this a good exit point to prepare for the next bear cycle and to accumulate more assets. Additionally, with the DXY (US Dollar Index) being low, a recovery in the DXY coupled with a drop in Bitcoin's value could significantly reduce the realized profits for Bitcoin holders.
The RSI and NUPL are high, and with the number of BTC longs decreasing, it indicates low confidence in further upside.
The next push is expected to face strong resistance at 112,000The bull run has been ongoing since October 2023, and we are beginning to reach the final stages. This is the final push, likely a significant one, but there is strong long-term resistance and trends around the $115,000 mark. Altcoins are starting to gain momentum, but institutions are accumulating and absorbing new supplies, putting upward pressure on Bt prices. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is weak, making Bitcoin appear artificially high compared to alternative currencies, such as the Sterling and Euro, with a new all-time high roughly 15% away for GBP and only 2% for dollar.
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently high, indicating that a significant proportion of holders are in profit, which places us in a state of greed. Short-term holders are selling their positions, while long-term holders continue to accumulate. However, this trend is likely to lose momentum in the next price increase, as long-term holders may sell to free up capital for a potential bear market.
Furthermore, inflation remains high, and retail investors are finding it challenging to invest, which makes it less likely that they will engage with Bitcoin at its current levels. This indicates that a period of enthusiasm among retail investors is less probable. Additionally, outflows from ETFs have been shown to quickly impact prices negatively.
Bitcoin is projected to continue its price discovery upwards, potentially reaching $112,000 and possibly even higher before fear sets in, leading to profit-taking, which could significantly affect the price. Many investors may perceive this as a peak and anticipate a subsequent bear market.
While this cycle could be different, I remain skeptical. I believe that what I term GOB (Greed, Overconfidence, and Belief), which is the opposite of FOMO, will come into play and lead to a market crash.
**Hey everyone, Bitcoin Shorts!** Hey everyone, Bitcoin Shorts!
Hope you’re all doing well—or at least clinging to sanity while crypto plays its usual game of "emotional damage roulette." 🎢
Trading these days requires nerves of titanium—one minute you’re a genius, the next you’re Googling "how to explain massive losses to my significant other." (Ahem, like that time I turned 50K into SOL-d memories trying to short it. But hey, tuition fees for the school of hard knocks, right?)
Chart Breakdown (with a side of self-awareness):
Long until 109,950 (chart looks bullish, but if I’m wrong and we dip below 106,750, I’ll flip to a manual short—only after confirming a double top + Fib pullback on lower timeframes (3m-15m).
Yes, this is me fighting the trend like a stubborn mule. Old habits die hard—just ask my 2023 P&L.
Then short the pattern down to 97,700 (or 88,800 for that sweet 37x fantasy).
Currently longing to 135,000 (50x), but always wait for the retest. (Patience is a virtue… until the 4AM caffeine wears off.)
Bonus Wisdom (because crypto loves irony):
"Trend is your friend"—unless you’re a thrill-seeker like me who occasionally treats Fib levels like a trampoline.
Side note: Crypto adores Fibonacci more than a conspiracy theorist loves a good pattern. Respect the levels, or they’ll disrespect your wallet.
Final Advice:
May your entries be sniper-precise, your stops be actually placed, and your mental health survive the 3AM wicks. And remember—if all else fails, there’s always the "blame the whales" exit strategy.
Trade safe(ish). 🚀
BTCUSD UPSIDE VIEWAfter Showing M Pattern Break down and treadlin break if halt neckline and showing it will dumb strong selling candle and if market still halt and then small pull back we can enter up side because we go with trap everyone selling this side and SMC will snatched the market up side because it's an uptrend ok.
BTC (Y25. P2.E3).AB=CD scenarioHi traders,
In the past, ATH's have made consistent pullbacks soon after with 14%.
This time round I do expect the same, to shake out before we do new highs.
Macro wise, I still have the Cup and Handle targets.
Short term, this aligns well with my support levels.
For now, the VAL or neckline is likely to be resistance.
We had a obvious descending wedge breakout, its hit its target. and now we should range, consolidate here before price makes a decision.
For more updates, come to our forum.
All the best,
S.SAri
Bitcoin on track as alwaysHello,
This chart is a Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on a weekly timeframe (1W) from BITSTAMP, with annotations around halving cycles, historical patterns, and projected tops. Let’s break down the key insights and patterns visible in this chart, especially focusing on the implications for the next potential top following the 4th halving on April 20, 2024.
🔁 Cycle Structure and Repeating Patterns
Each cycle is defined between two halving events:
1st Halving: Nov 28, 2012
2nd Halving: Jul 9, 2016
3rd Halving: May 11, 2020
4th Halving: Apr 20, 2024
Each halving is followed by:
Accumulation/Sideways Period (marked in purple boxes)
Strong Bull Run to a new all-time high
Sharp Correction
Longer consolidation until the next halving
So, we use historical halving-based fractals to forecast the next Bitcoin bull cycle top around October 2025, assuming a consistent 525-day post-halving rally. The current price structure aligns closely with prior cycles, suggesting BTC is still on track. If the pattern holds, we may see a strong upward trend from mid/late 2024 into late 2025, with a potential blow-off top near the cycle peak.
⚠️ Caveats
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results
Each cycle may rhyme but not repeat exactly – macro conditions, regulations, ETFs, institutional flows, and global liquidity all play bigger roles now
Diminishing returns are evident – each cycle's ROI peak is lower
BITCOIN Seems to have Broken the LONG Term resistance- BIG DAY
The chart really does say it all
You can see the Arc, above PA that has rejected PA Every ATH since 2013
It created the point of rejection on 6 ATH in Total and presented a huge problem if it was not broken. And I can assure you, that arc touches Every ATH.
Just recently, this same line rejected PA Twice, with strength.
The Zoomed chart below shows you where we are now
This image shows you the two 2021 ATH points. and the last two touches { which I find remarkably close to the 2021 double ATH but in miniature }
And, as you can see, we have a candle ABOVE this Arc of resistance. and the Big question is now, WILL WE STAY ABOVE
And what is also notable is how this has happened perfectly at the end of the FIB TIME SCALE used.
This line will have to be tested as support one day and when that day comes, we really REALLY need to remain above.
And once we do that..we really will be in price discovery, in a way that we have never been before.
I am looking at some charts that may offer projected lines of resistance but I am waiting to see what happens here first before publishing them
ENJOY THE RIDE
Bitcoin H1 | Pullback support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 109.174.00 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 105,800.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 113,948.50 which is a resistance that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection.
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BTC/USD ssibly initiating a new bearish phase.
Asset: Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Timeframe: 4-hour (4h)
Platform: TradingView
Price Range: Chart shows BTC trading around $108,998.31
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🧠 Technical Concepts Used:
🔁 Market Structure Terms:
BOS (Break of Structure):
Located on the left side, indicating a shift in trend direction.
Signifies a strong bearish break, typically following a bullish run, possibly initiating a new bearish phase.
CHOCH (Change of Character):
Mid-chart, near a significant support zone.
Indicates a potential bullish reversal or accumulation phase after a downtrend.
HH/HL (Higher Highs/Higher Lows):
Indicate an uptrend following the CHOCH area.
Bullish market structure forming a channel.
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🟩 Zones & Targets:
🔲 Support and Resistance Zones:
Support Zone: Marked near the bottom (~$82,000–$85,000 range)
Resistance Zone: Near the top (~$110,000 area), where price currently hovers
🎯 Targets and Forecast:
First Target: Mid-level demand zone around ~$96,000–$98,000
Final Target: Strong demand zone around ~$92,000
Price Path Projection:
Suggests a potential drop from current levels (Red arrow)
Temporary bounce at first target, followed by another drop to final target
Afterwards, a potential bullish retracement or reversal
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📐 Technical Patterns & Tools:
Trend Channel: Price is moving inside an ascending parallel channel.
Arrow Markings:
Show a forecast of retracement and potential consolidation or reversal.
Liquidity Zones: Highlighted zones suggest institutional interest areas where price may react significantly.
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📅 Timestamp and Device Info:
Chart Date/Time: Sunday, 25th May 2025, 12:00
Current System Time: 10:21 PM, 27th May 2025
Platform: Dell Laptop with Windows OS
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✅ Summary Like a Pro:
> "The BTC/USD 4H chart presents a classic smart money setup. Following a break of structure (BOS) and change of character (CHOCH), the price entered a bullish structure forming higher highs. Currently, price action is in a premium zone nearing resistance, suggesting a potential bearish move targeting the first demand zone around $96,000 and final institutional support near $92,000. A corrective retracement is expected before any significant bullish continuation, aligning with key liquidity and order block zones."
BTC Bulls Awakening from the Shadows – OB + 79% Fib Reaction 📈 BTCUSD | 30-Min Bullish Reversal Setup from OB + 79% Fib Zone
Smart Money never misses a good discount… and this BTCUSD setup is that juicy premium-to-discount play we wait for.
🔍 1. Price Action Context
Market sold off into a clearly defined Order Block
Price tapped precisely at the 79% Fib level
Internal liquidity sweep confirmed below recent equal lows
No candle close below OB = structure still intact
This is what we call the "Trap + Reverse" move. Late shorts just got baited.
🧱 2. Confluences Stacking Up
💎 79% Fib Retracement — Deep discount zone for Smart Money
💎 Bullish Order Block — Last up candle before the sharp sell-off
💎 Liquidity Sweep — Price swept short-term lows = inducement
💎 Channel Structure — Midline bounce = potential breakout
The OB + Fib overlap = a high-probability buy zone with minimal risk
🎯 3. Trade Plan
Entry Zone: 108,250–108,650
Stop Loss: Below 108,000
Take Profit: 110,758 (premium zone)
⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio)
📥 Entry: ~108,400
🔒 SL: 108,000
💰 TP: 110,758
✅ RRR ≈ 1:5.8
This is sniper-level asymmetric risk. You don’t chase candles — you wait here, like a lion in the grass 🦁.
🔁 5. What to Watch Next
Price must reclaim and close above 108,867 for confirmation
If we get a BOS (Break of Structure) above 109,200 = 🚀
Hold above the mid-channel line = bullish continuation
💬 Comment “LONGED BTC 💎” if you caught this with the OB bounce!
📌 Save this to study OB + Fib synergy.
👀 Watch price action at 109,200 — breakout zone incoming?
BTC (Y25.P2.E4). Potential bullish fractal to take placeHi traders,
Price is bullish and its likely we will see more ATH to come.
Here, with a peak, followed by a troph, we found support like the macro Y21 BTC price action. Hence finding that support level makes sense to long.. To early to find a long but it could come soon.
Alternatively, we see a AB=CD move to 105k level, but this is looking less likely
The ABC target, is 1 to 1, which aligns to take the liquidity above this ATH level.
Or Its a wave 2 level and hence a bigger move of wave 3.
All the best,
S.SAri
Market next move
Disruption of the Bullish Bias:
1. False Breakout Risk
The area marked with a red rectangle might be showing signs of consolidation, but there's a possibility that the bullish breakout is a bull trap.
Volume does not strongly confirm a breakout; note that the volume on the recent upward candles is not significantly higher than the surrounding bars — often a sign of weak buyer conviction.
2. Resistance Overhead
BTC is approaching the psychological level of 110,000, which may act as resistance.
Price action shows several small-bodied candles with wicks, indicating indecision or rejection from higher levels.
3. Bearish Divergence Potential
If paired with RSI or MACD indicators (not visible in this image), there might be signs of bearish divergence — price making higher highs while the indicator makes lower highs.
4. Liquidity Sweep Scenario
The recent wick into the highlighted zone could be a liquidity sweep — grabbing stop-losses before reversing downward.
This would support a bearish move contrary to the bullish forecast.
5. Market Sentiment & Fundamentals
Ignoring macro events such as Fed decisions, ETF movements, or regulatory news can be dangerous. If bearish news breaks out, technical setups can fail fast
Market next move Original Analysis Summary:
Identifies a bullish structure breaking above a support area.
Projects a potential continuation to higher targets.
Suggests consolidation and bounce from support before climbing.
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Disruptive Bearish Interpretation:
1. Lower High Possibility:
Recent price action might be forming a lower high rather than a continuation signal, signaling weakness in buying pressure.
2. Volume Imbalance:
Notice how the large green candle was followed by lower bullish volume, suggesting buying momentum is fading.
3. Breakout Trap:
The "Support area" may instead be a liquidity zone where breakout traders entered long positions and could now be trapped. A break below this area could cause a panic sell-off.
4. Trendline Respect (Rejection):
Price is currently retesting the underside of a descending trendline — a common reversal spot.