BTC heads up at 95.2k: Covid Stimulus Fib should cause a DipBTC has been running nicely with risk-on sentiment.
Nearing a significant Covid fib at 95,176.28 (Coinbase).
Covid Stimulus nodes resonate most with monetary policy.
It is PROBABLE that we Orbit it a few times.
It is POSSIBLE that we get Rejected completely.
It is PLAUSIBLE to blow through it then come back.
If EXACT Rejection, look to sister fib below at $89,592.30
If ORBIT Capture, look to get flung in either direction.
If BREAK Easily, pay more attention to the Genesis fibs .
.
The other major fib series for BTC, the "Genesis Sequence":
These two sequences, the Genesis and Covid fibs, helped call "the TOP":
They also called the dip/bounce at 75k:
==============================================================
BTCUSD trade ideas
BULLRUN 2025 LOADING? #Bitcoin Weekly Update
Bitcoin is bouncing from the 50 EMA on the weekly chart. Every time this has happened before, a strong rally followed.
The weekly MACD has also made a bullish crossover. In the past, when Bitcoin held the 50 EMA and the MACD crossed up, the price moved much higher.
Right now, Bitcoin is showing strong support and fresh momentum.
Stay alert. The next few weeks are crucial.
Retweet if you're bullish
#Bullrun2025 #CRYPTOMOJO_TA
$BTC Rejected at .618 Fib - Correction Coming!Textbook rejection at the .618 Fib for CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Now on its way to retest the 200 and 50DMA as expected.
If that does not hold, we’ll go back to my original inverse head & shoulder idea ~$78k.
This will be the catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg up to $130k end of June.
Weekly-Analysis:Bitcoin (BTC)–Issue 275 (Free access)The analyst believes that the price of BTCUSD will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend.
___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Key Insights: Financial Markets Transformation by 2030For years, this page has been my space to share in-depth market research and personal insights into key financial trends. This post reflects my perspective — a strategic outlook on where I believe the digital finance industry is heading.
The financial world is evolving at an unprecedented pace, and it's easy to overlook subtle shifts. But the undeniable fact is that we are now standing at the intersection of three powerful industries — financial markets, blockchain, and artificial intelligence. We are positioned at the cutting edge of technology, where innovation is not a future concept but a present reality.
This post serves as a reference point for future trends and a guide to understanding the transformative forces shaping financial markets by 2030. These are not just facts, but my vision of the opportunities and challenges ahead in this rapidly converging digital ecosystem. Staying ahead today means more than following the market — it means recognizing that we are part of a technological shift redefining the core of global finance.
📈 1. Electronic Trading Evolution
Full transition from traditional trading floors to AI-driven digital platforms.
Integration of blockchain and smart contracts ensures transparency, automation, and risk reduction.
Real-time data analytics democratizes market access and enhances strategic decision-making.
🤖 2. Algorithmic Trading Growth
Accelerated by AI, machine learning, and big data analytics.
High-frequency trading (HFT) boosts efficiency but introduces new volatility factors.
Adaptive algorithms dynamically adjust strategies in real time.
Strong focus on regulatory compliance and ethical standards.
🔗 3. Tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA)
Transforming asset management with projected growth to $18.9 trillion by 2033. (now 18.85B)
Enhances liquidity, accessibility, and transparency via blockchain.
Institutional adoption is driving mainstream acceptance.
Evolving regulations (DLT Act, MiCA) support secure tokenized ecosystems.
🏦 4. Institutional Adoption & Regulatory Frameworks
Digitalization of fixed income markets and exponential growth in institutional DeFi participation.
Key drivers: compliance, custody solutions, and advanced infrastructure.
Global regulatory harmonization and smart contract-based compliance automation are reshaping governance.
💳 5. Embedded Finance & Smart Connectivity
Embedded finance market to hit $7.2 trillion by 2030.
Seamless integration of financial services into everyday platforms (e-commerce, mobility, etc.).
AI, blockchain, and IoT power real-time, personalized financial ecosystems.
Smart contracts reduce operational friction and enhance user experience.
🛡 6. Financial Crime Risk Management
Market expected to reach $30.28 billion by 2030.
AI-driven threat detection and anomaly monitoring strengthen AML compliance.
Blockchain ensures data integrity and automates cross-border regulatory adherence.
Global collaboration (FATF, EU AML) fortifies defenses against evolving financial crimes.
🌍 7. Consumer Behavior & Financial Inclusion
Digital banking bridges the gap for underbanked populations, especially in emerging markets.
Mobile solutions like M-Pesa revolutionize access to financial services.
Biometrics, microfinance, and AI-powered engagement tools foster inclusive economic participation.
🚀 Conclusion
By 2030, financial markets will be defined by technology-driven efficiency, regulatory adaptability, and inclusive growth.
Success will favor those who embrace innovation, leverage automation, and engage in cross-sector collaboration.
The future belongs to agile stakeholders navigating a landscape shaped by AI, blockchain, tokenization, and smart finance connectivity.
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
btc on bullish move#BTCUSD price have now fully at third pattern which possible move will reach 96300 for price reverse.
Above 95376 have strong bullish range which will reach 96300 for sell retracment, stop loss 95500.
If the third pattern holds strong above 96300 then bullish may continue to move till 98k.
Real Success Rates of the Falling Wedge in TradingReal Success Rates of the Falling Wedge in Trading
The falling wedge is a chart pattern highly valued by traders for its potential for bullish reversals after a bearish or consolidation phase. Its effectiveness has been extensively studied and documented by various technical analysts and leading authors.
Key Statistics
Bullish Exit: In 82% of cases, the exit from the falling wedge is upward, making it one of the most reliable patterns for anticipating a positive reversal.
Price Target Achieved: The pattern's theoretical target (calculated by plotting the height of the wedge at the breakout point) is achieved in approximately 63% to 88% of cases, depending on the source, demonstrating a high success rate for profit-taking.
Trend Reversal: In 55% to 68% of cases, the falling wedge acts as a reversal pattern, signaling the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a new bullish phase.
Pullback: After the breakout, a pullback (return to the resistance line) occurs in approximately 53% to 56% of cases, which can provide a second entry opportunity but tends to reduce the pattern's overall performance.
False Breakouts: False exits represent between 10% and 27% of cases. However, a false bullish breakout only results in a true bearish breakout in 3% of cases, making the bullish signal particularly robust.
Performance and Context
Bull Market: The pattern performs particularly well when it appears during a corrective phase of an uptrend, with a profit target reached in 70% of cases within three months.
Gain Potential: The maximum gain potential can reach 32% in half of cases during a bullish breakout, according to statistical studies on equity markets.
Formation Time: The wider the wedge and the steeper the trend lines, the faster and more violent the post-breakout upward movement will be.
Comparative Summary of Success Rates:
Criteria Rate Observed Frequency
Bullish Exit 82%
Price Target Achieved 63% to 88%
Reversal Pattern 55% to 68%
Pullback After Breakout 53% to 56%
False Breakouts (False Exits) 10% to 27%
Bullish False Breakouts Leading to a Downside 3%
Points of Attention
The falling wedge is a rare and difficult pattern to correctly identify, requiring at least five contact points to be valid.
Performance is best when the breakout occurs around 60% of the pattern's length and when volume increases at the time of the breakout.
Pullbacks, although frequent, tend to weaken the initial bullish momentum.
Conclusion
The falling wedge has a remarkable success rate, with more than 8 out of 10 cases resulting in a bullish exit and a price target being reached in the majority of cases. However, it remains essential to validate the pattern with other technical signals (volume, momentum) and to remain vigilant against false breakouts, even if their rate is relatively low. When mastered, this pattern proves to be a valuable tool for traders looking for optimized entry points on bullish reversals.
Bitcoin: a break-throughDuring the previous week BTC finally made a break-through from previous levels, reaching the highest weekly level at $95,5K. This move was supported by fundamentals. On one side there was a sort of relaxation of the US-China trade war, at least based on comments from the US Administration, which continues to be highly mixed. In addition, the Federal Reserve withdrew the crypto guidance for banks, which required banks to notify or get approval before engaging in the crypto or stablecoin activities. This further supported the BTC to trade at higher levels.
With the strong move toward the upside, the RSI reached the clear overbought market side, at the level of 70. In technical analysis, this is a sign of an increased potential for a reversal in the coming period. The MA50 halted the divergence from MA200, after the tow lines made a cross two weeks ago.
The Saturday trading session brought some relaxation in the price of BTC, which the coin is ending around the level of $94,3K. Thai could be treated as the “normal” move after a strong push of price to the upside. The relaxation might continue in the week ahead, as the market already priced all known information. Some volatility might be expected based on macro data, especially on Friday, as both NFP and unemployment data are set for a release. At this moment, some stronger reversal should not be expected. The next support line lies at $93K, which could be shortly tested. The further way to the upside is possible only in case of some strong fundamentals. The BTC might spend some time around the $95K considering that it needs to be properly tested.
BTC Elliott wave analysis 5/3/2025For me , I think the Wave B of the Big 4 is already finished as you can see the clear divergence in 4 hours timeflame and the small wave count is also confirm that the end of wave be should be finish and Wave C is ready to coming down. Since the wave B retraced in the range of 0.618 - 0.8 (weak B) we expect the target for the end of wave C is around 1.272 - 1.382 of wave A (B-Failure flat) or around 68000- 65000.Surpisingly , the price target that we get is the same level as the huge suppot zone in 2024 making the 68000- 65000 target price more likely to be the end of C wave. But we should also think of the alternate scenario that the Big wave 4 is already end in WXYXZ (in the wave A) and the upcoming wave 5 (wave B)is already coming up and hit the resistance and waiting to go higher.
Bitcoin the Big Bearish TrapIn my opinion we are forming an extended right shoulder on the weekly
1 Scenario: It's expected to see an impulse to 107-112k area but I wouldn't buy spot/long btc in here under any circumstance.
Based on weekly RSI, we might top somewhere there, or sooner
2 Scenario: We don't go above 100k and start a sudden move down, as SPX just retested it's previous highs and a retrace is expected as well.
Regarding Altcoins, if btc goes above 115k, it's worth the risk with proper management but not sooner, or you risk being the exit liquidity in a very big downward move.
Or, btc retraces to sub 80k and we have one more leg left of 20-30% on alts before doom
Bitcoin :What is next?These are my 3 major trades for this month and the next one.
First we got that 98k npoc level. After that i will open a nice little short postion until 88k region is tapped. Then i will long until 104k or 107k npoc levels close . I will consider also entering short from 104k region.
I think during the summer btc will go down just like last year .
60k-70k is waiting for btc.
Bitcoin - The Bottom Is In!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is reversing right now:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It was really just a matter of time until Bitcoin actually manages to create a potential short term and longer term bottom. With this monthly candle, bulls are taking over again and starting to buy cryptos quite heavily. The chart just tells us that this is not the end, but rather the continuation.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Current Technical Analysis and Operational Suggestions for BTCCurrently, the price of BTC has established a strong support level around 96,000. This level precisely represents the cost line for short - term holders (STH), and its supporting effectiveness has been verified multiple times in past market trends. If the price stabilizes at this crucial level, a technical rebound is highly likely to be triggered.
From the perspective of the hourly chart, the consecutive six or seven bearish candlesticks reflect the concentrated release of bearish forces. However, it is necessary to closely monitor for the emergence of a "bullish divergence" signal, that is, when the price hits a new low for the period, but the MACD indicator does not reach a new low simultaneously. When the DIF line in the MACD indicator crosses the DEA line near the zero - axis to form a golden cross, and is accompanied by an increase in trading volume, it is generally regarded as a valid bullish signal.
Currently, if the green bars of the MACD indicator continue to shorten and the fast and slow lines tend to converge, this may be an omen of an impending short - term rebound. The long lower shadow on the candlestick chart demonstrates strong buying pressure at the low level, but this still needs to be verified in combination with the trading volume. If subsequent candlesticks can firmly stay above the high point of the long lower shadow, the effectiveness of the 96,000 support level can be confirmed. Once the price successfully stabilizes at 96,000 and the MACD golden cross is confirmed, the bullish signal will be further strengthened.
BTCUSD
buy@96000
tp:97000-97500
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-25 : Inside Breakaway patternToday's Pattern is an Inside Breakaway pattern. I suggest this pattern could play a pivotal role in how the markets setup for the May 2 Major Bottom pattern I'm expecting.
You'll see in this video how any move to the upside could present a broadening of the consolidation range - resulting in even bigger price volatility going forward.
Yet, I believe the markets will stall and roll a bit downward/sideways today. Possibly resulting in a move back into the lower consolidation range as we ROLL off resistance.
As I suggested last weekend, I see no reason to assume the markets are "cleared for take-off" yet. Tariffs and political concerns are still driving uncertainty.
I think we are seeing Q1 earnings inflate the markets while the fundamental elements of the global markets are still somewhat unsettled.
I urge traders to HEDGE any open trades going into this weekend. If the markets don't make any clear moves today, hedge any positions you hold into next week.
Gold & Silver are showing signs of minor panic selling. I see that as traders wanting to retest the $3300/$33 levels for Gold/Silver.
I still believe Gold/Silver will skyrocket higher. But, probably not going to happen today.
BTCUSD is making an interesting move higher. Potentially invalidating the previous EPP pattern and/or setting up a very broad consolidation range.
It will be interesting to see how BTCUSD continues to trend over the next few months.
Remember, I'm hopefully helping all of you find ways to improve your trading and find better results.
Get some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Btcusd analysis sell zone To determine the reason behind selling BTCUSD at $96,313, let's analyze the current market situation.
*Current Price:* The current price of Bitcoin (BTC) is $95,715.99, with an open price of $96,405.96 and a high price of $96,593.00.
*Price Movement:* The price has dropped by $689.96, representing a 0.72% decrease.
*Possible Reasons for Selling:*
- *Market Volatility:* The recent price drop might have triggered a sell-off, as traders try to minimize losses or secure profits.
- *Technical Analysis:* Traders might be selling based on technical indicators, such as resistance levels or trend reversals.
Pan cake or pin cake?????I have no idea about fundamental, but I am thinking its enough moment to upside, need correction long way down to 60k area. retest is must to consider a healthy market. And it might be slow down for the rest of the year until the bull run starts again in winter, you know winter is coming. hahahaha
Bitcoin Broke Res Now What?Time to update long term trend (Weekly & Daily).
Well, after breaking resistance with a VERY strong move we can say with a high degree of confidence that a NEW long term leg up has been confirmed even tho the new higher low hasn't been printed yet cause it is very unlikely for Bitcoin to have a move down of $22k in a Daily Bearish Cycle. So from NOW ON we should expect Bitcoin to print higher lows and higher as long as the weekly Cycle remains Bullish. Now, If Bitcoin DOESN'T print a higher high during the next 4 weeks and instead moves sideways then the Weekly UPtrend will be in danger again, but is too early to say that. For those like me that got stuck in a futures short position next drop will be the last chance to get out even or with small loss/profit and for SPOT if you are not in yet then your last opportunity will be around $90k cause as of now the sky is the limit for Bitcoin. Buckle up ladies and gentlemen cause 4th of July is coming and Bitcoin is coming with it with a big check.
BTCUSD:Adopt range trading before the breakout.Given that a number of important data are about to be released intensively, the market volatility is rising sharply. Before a clear breakout signal in the price is formed, it is recommended that within the range of $93,000 - $96,000, the range trading strategy be flexibly applied: sell at highs, and then buy at lows to build positions when the price drops back to the support level, so as to seize the band trading opportunities in the volatile market. At the same time, strictly control the position size to prevent the risk of sudden and significant fluctuations triggered by the data release.
BTCUSD
buy@93000-93500
tp:95000-95500
sell@96000-95500
tp:94000-93500
In the future, we will continue to monitor the market changes and update the trading strategies in real time.
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Bitcoin at Resistance – Time to Short?🧠 Summary:
Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) has moved up to the upper part of the resistance zone I highlighted in my previous analysis. That analysis still holds—I’m still expecting BTC to start pulling back from here.
🔍 Key Levels:
- Resistance zone: $94 000 - $98 000
- Support zone: $86 000 - $83 000
- Major Support zone: $72 000 - $68 000
📅 Upcoming Events:
Wednesday:
FOMC & Fed rate decision – No rate cuts expected at this time.
Thursday:
Initial Jobless Claims – Est. 234K
📊 Macro & Fed Context:
Last week’s data came in softer than expected, sparking a brief market rally. However, that data was released before the new tariffs. Tomorrow (Wednesday) is the FOMC meeting—while Trump is pushing for rate cuts, I don’t expect Powell to move yet.
The Fed is likely waiting for post-tariff economic data before making any decisions. The data in the coming months will provide a clearer picture and help guide future rate cuts more effectively.
📈 Technical Outlook:
BTC is retracing and showing signs of weakness at the current high, which I believe will serve as a local top. It’s possible we retest the $98.8K–$99K range again, but I expect that to be the absolute ceiling.
🧭 Trading Plan (Not Financial Advice):
I’m entering a short position here with an average entry around $96K.