BTCUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently in wave 3 of a 5 (Elliott Wave)BTC/USD experienced a halving last year on April 20, 2024. We have been seeing the typical post-halving cycle with exponential upside, followed by deep pullbacks. The price action we've seen to date follow Elliott Wave Cycle quite nicely. I believe we are in wave 3 of a bull cycle that has really been in place since Sep 2024.
- Wave 1: Sep 2024 - Jan 2025 - parabolic upside from $54K to $109K - absolutely explosive!
- Wave 2: Jan 2025 - Apr 2025 - we saw price peak and pull back all the way to the 61.8% Fibonacci level right around $75K. Remember, that in wave 2, a healthy pullback is 50% - 61.8% of the first wave.
- Wave 3: Apr 2025 - we have since rallied to around $109K as of this analysis. We are likely in subwave 3. Subwave 1 was from the low in April to the high in May (around $112K). Subwave 2 was a very nice 3-wave zig zag (reaching low of $98.3K in June). I believe we are currently in the middle of wave 3.
My next price target based on Fibonacci extension is $118K-$120K with the $78.6% level right at $119K. Note current resistance that we need to turn into support ($109.7K level) is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level. I do expect a meaningful pullback after the peak of wave 3, which would be wave 4. The rest is TBD and I will continue to update this idea.
Remember, Elliott Wave theory is one tool in the toolbox. I do believe there is a larger post-halving cycle narrative that is dominant and most reliable, especially since BTC has largely followed this blueprint that we see every four years, but as of now EWT fits in quite nicely. I also look at the pi cycle top indicator and believe we need to use multiple indicators to understand where we are in the cycle.
BTCUSD Structure Analysis : Bullish Zone From Support + Target🔍 Current Market Structure Overview:
Bitcoin is currently trading around $108,375, hovering just above a clearly respected rising support zone (shaded area). This dynamic support has held price multiple times and continues to act as a springboard for short-term bullish moves.
The chart illustrates a classic bullish continuation setup forming, with key structural levels marked as Minor BOS (Break of Structure) and Major BOS, indicating potential areas of trend validation and momentum acceleration.
🔹 Key Technical Elements:
✅ Support Zone:
The shaded diagonal support zone has acted as a bullish trendline base, holding up since late June.
BTC recently dipped into this area, found buyers, and is now attempting a reversal from this level.
This reinforces market interest and confirms the accumulation behavior in this zone.
⚠️ Break of Structure (BOS) Levels:
Minor BOS is marked near $109,800, signaling the first key intraday resistance.
A break above this level would signal bullish intent and open the way for price expansion.
Major BOS around $110,600–$110,800 is critical. A clean break here will likely validate a trend continuation toward the next objective.
🟩 Next Reversal Zone (Target Area):
Highlighted around $111,500–$112,000, this green zone represents a potential liquidity grab/reversal area where sellers could re-enter.
This zone aligns with previous price exhaustion levels and may trigger consolidation or a short-term pullback.
📈 Projected Price Path (Wave Schematic):
The chart outlines a wave structure projection, suggesting:
A possible retest of the minor BOS.
Follow-through into the major BOS area.
Final push into the reversal zone before potential rejection or sideways action.
🔧 Bias & Strategy:
Bias: Moderately Bullish as long as BTC respects the support zone.
Invalidation: A decisive breakdown below the trendline support and close under $107,500 would invalidate this bullish setup and shift bias to neutral/bearish short-term.
Trading Plan Ideas:
📥 Buy Opportunity: On minor dips within the support zone, targeting BOS levels.
📤 Sell Watch: Near reversal zone ($111.5K–$112K) if signs of exhaustion or bearish divergence appear.
📌 Final Notes:
BTC appears to be gearing up for a breakout from consolidation, and price action is coiling with higher lows. Market participants should watch closely how BTC reacts at the minor and major BOS zones, as they could define the next leg for either bullish continuation or rejection.
$BTC (BITCOIN) 4HPrice previously rallied strongly from a Fair Value Gap (FVG) at the bottom of the chart, forming a bullish market structure.
After a bullish displacement, BTC consolidated in a tight range (reaccumulation) and swept internal liquidity before breaking down.
Now, price has returned to a critical discount zone around 107800–107600
First Target: 109,229 — internal range high.
Main Objective: 112,000 — resting external liquidity above a clean high.
As long as BTC holds above 107600, we remain bullish. The current area is perfect for accumulation before a potential expansion phase toward external liquidity.
BTC Storm of Consolidation, New Money, and Macro-PoliticsBitcoin at the Precipice: A Perfect Storm of Consolidation, New Money, and Macro-Political Tailwinds
In the intricate and often tempestuous world of digital assets, there are moments of frantic volatility and periods of eerie calm. Bitcoin, the undisputed king of cryptocurrencies, currently finds itself in one of these fascinating lulls—a state of high-altitude consolidation that is anything but sleepy. Trading just a whisper away from its all-time high, the asset is coiling like a spring, absorbing immense selling pressure from early adopters while simultaneously drawing in a new, powerful wave of buyers. This delicate equilibrium, however, is set against a backdrop of explosive potential catalysts. From tightening technical indicators screaming of an imminent breakout to the looming deadline of US tariffs, the vocal endorsement of tech titans, and the unprecedented entry of Bitcoin into the mainstream political arena, the stage is being meticulously set. The question on every analyst's and investor's mind is no longer if Bitcoin will make its next major move, but when, and just how monumental it will be. This is not just another market cycle; it is a convergence of forces that could propel Bitcoin toward price horizons that were once the domain of only the most fervent optimists.
The Anatomy of a Healthy Consolidation: Whales Recede as a New Foundation is Built
At first glance, a market that stalls just below its peak might seem like a sign of weakness, an indication that the bullish momentum has been exhausted. However, a deeper look into the current structure of the Bitcoin market reveals a picture of profound strength and maturity. This period of consolidation is characterized by a crucial and healthy rotation of ownership. The so-called "whales"—early investors and large-scale holders who have accumulated vast quantities of Bitcoin at much lower prices—are beginning to ease their holdings. This is not the panic-selling seen during bear market capitulations. Rather, it is a strategic and logical process of taking profits, de-risking portfolios, and realizing life-changing gains after a historic run.
Every Bitcoin sold by a whale must be bought by someone else, and the identity of these new buyers is what makes the current phase so compellingly bullish. The supply being released onto the market is not causing a price crash; instead, it is being steadily absorbed by a fresh cohort of participants. This new wave includes a diverse mix of players: retail investors who are gaining confidence as Bitcoin solidifies its mainstream status, smaller institutional players who are now more comfortable entering the market, and, most significantly, corporations that are beginning to view Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury reserve asset. This process is akin to the changing of the guard. The early pioneers are passing the baton to a new generation of holders who are establishing a new, higher cost basis. This dynamic is incredibly constructive for long-term price stability. It builds a robust and formidable wall of support at these elevated price levels, transforming what was once a speculative peak into a solid foundation for the next leg up.
Further evidence of this underlying strength can be seen in Bitcoin's recent weekly performance. The asset has managed to set another record high weekly close. In the world of technical analysis, a weekly close is considered far more significant than a brief, volatile intraday spike. An intraday high can be the result of a short-lived speculative frenzy or a liquidation cascade, but a high weekly close demonstrates sustained buying pressure and conviction over a longer duration. It signifies that, for seven straight days, buyers successfully defended higher price levels against sellers, ultimately winning the battle as the candle closed. This repeated ability to secure high weekly closes indicates that the market is systematically accepting and validating these new price territories, creating a psychological and technical launchpad for a future assault on all-time highs. Traders are now intensely focused on this dynamic, attempting to pinpoint the new, higher bottoms of this consolidation range, recognizing that these levels are likely to serve as the bedrock for the next major bull run.
The Technical Cauldron: Bollinger Bands Signal an Imminent and Violent Breakout
While the fundamental picture is one of healthy rotation, the technical charts are sending an even more urgent message: prepare for a massive move. Among the myriad of indicators used by traders, the Bollinger Bands are currently painting a particularly dramatic picture. Bollinger Bands consist of three lines plotted over a price chart. The middle band is a simple moving average, while the upper and lower bands are positioned at a set number of standard deviations away from the middle band. In essence, they are a direct measure of market volatility. When the market is volatile, the bands widen. When the market is calm and consolidating, the bands contract, or "squeeze."
Bitcoin is currently in the midst of one of the most significant Bollinger Band squeezes seen in recent history. The upper and lower bands have drawn incredibly close to one another, indicating that volatility has been wrung out of the market to an extreme degree. Historically, such periods of low volatility are the calm before the storm. A Bollinger Band squeeze is almost always resolved by a period of explosive, high volatility—a powerful breakout. The longer and tighter the squeeze, the more violent the subsequent price move tends to be. The indicator itself does not predict the direction of the breakout, but in the current context, the directional bias is overwhelmingly clear. With Bitcoin consolidating just shy of its all-time high after a powerful uptrend, and with the fundamental backdrop being so strong, the path of least resistance is overwhelmingly to the upside.
This technical setup creates a powerful psychological feedback loop. As more traders and algorithms spot the tightening bands, they begin to position themselves for the inevitable breakout. This builds a massive amount of potential energy within the market. When the price finally does break through the upper band, it can trigger a cascade of buy orders—from traders entering new long positions, to short-sellers being forced to buy back to cover their losing bets. This rush of buying pressure is what can turn a simple breakout into a parabolic, face-ripping rally.
The anticipation surrounding this move has led to some audacious price targets being discussed. Analysts are now contemplating the possibility of a "false move" to as high as $105,000. The term "false move" in this context is intriguing. It could imply a rapid, almost wick-like surge to that level, driven by extreme speculation and leverage, which might then be followed by a sharp correction to shake out the "paper hands" before a more sustainable climb resumes. Alternatively, it could simply be a way of expressing disbelief at the sheer velocity of the potential move. Whether the target is $105,000 or another figure, the underlying message from the charts is unambiguous: Bitcoin is on the verge of a big move, and the technicals strongly suggest it will be a powerful breakout to the upside, potentially ushering in a new phase of price discovery.
The Confluence of Catalysts: Tariffs, Politics, and The Musk Effect
A primed technical setup is potent on its own, but when combined with powerful external catalysts, it creates the recipe for a perfect storm. Bitcoin's next potential move is not just being driven by its internal market dynamics; it is being pulled forward by a confluence of macroeconomic and political forces that are aligning in its favor.
One of the most significant near-term catalysts is the looming US tariff deadline. Historically, periods of geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty have been incredibly bullish for Bitcoin. Tariffs, trade wars, and protectionist policies create instability in global markets and can erode the value and trust in fiat currencies. As nations engage in economic conflict, savvy investors and even central banks begin to look for non-sovereign, censorship-resistant stores of value to hedge their wealth. Bitcoin, with its decentralized nature and fixed supply, is the ultimate hedge against such fiat currency debasement and geopolitical turmoil. The impending tariff deadline is forcing a global conversation about the stability of the current financial system, and Bitcoin stands to be a primary beneficiary as capital seeks a safe haven from the storm.
Adding fuel to this fire is the upcoming "Crypto Week," a period of heightened focus on the industry through conferences, major announcements, and media coverage. These events act as a gravitational force, pulling the attention of the financial world toward the digital asset space. This concentrated attention almost always leads to increased trading volume and volatility. It creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where the expectation of big news and market moves encourages traders to participate, thereby creating the very volatility they anticipated.
Perhaps the most electrifying and unpredictable catalyst, however, is the re-emergence of Elon Musk's "love" for Bitcoin and the asset's dramatic entrance onto the main stage of American politics. Musk, with his colossal social media following, has a proven and unparalleled ability to influence market sentiment with a single post. His recent teasing of a "Pro-Bitcoin America Party" has sent shockwaves far beyond the crypto community. This move, whether serious or satirical, has injected Bitcoin directly into the heart of the US political discourse. It reframes Bitcoin not just as a financial asset, but as a political symbol—a representation of innovation, decentralization, and freedom from government control.
This has been met with a reaction from other major political figures, including Donald Trump, creating a fascinating push-and-pull. The fact that leading presidential candidates and political influencers are now debating Bitcoin's merits and role in the nation's future is a monumental step in its journey toward mainstream legitimacy. It forces the public and policymakers to take it seriously. This political theater creates an environment where assets perceived as being aligned with pro-growth, pro-innovation, and pro-freedom ideologies can thrive. The emergence of a "BTC Bull Token" or similar concepts tied to this political momentum underscores the new reality: Bitcoin is no longer just a tech story; it is a powerful political and cultural movement, and this new dimension is likely to attract a wave of capital from those who align with its burgeoning ideology.
The Institutional Stamp of Approval: A Corporate Treasury Revolution
While retail excitement and political drama provide the fuel, the institutional adoption of Bitcoin provides the solid, unshakeable foundation for its long-term trajectory. The most powerful recent example of this trend is the announcement from Genius Group, a publicly traded education technology company, that it is increasing its Bitcoin treasury target to a staggering 10,000 BTC. This is not a speculative trade; it is a profound strategic shift in corporate treasury management.
This decision signifies that corporate boards and CFOs are beginning to understand and act upon Bitcoin's value proposition as a superior treasury reserve asset. In an era of persistent inflation and low-to-negative real yields on traditional assets like government bonds, holding large amounts of cash on a balance sheet is a guaranteed way to lose purchasing power. By allocating a portion of its treasury to Bitcoin, Genius Group is taking a proactive step to protect its shareholders' value from the ravages of monetary debasement. It is a declaration of confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential as a reliable store of value.
The importance of such a move cannot be overstated. It provides a powerful stamp of approval and a case study for thousands of other corporations around the world. When one publicly traded company makes such a bold move and outlines its rationale, it normalizes the strategy. Other CFOs, who may have been hesitant, now have a blueprint to follow and a precedent to point to when presenting the idea to their own boards. This has the potential to unlock a veritable floodgate of corporate capital. Even a small, single-digit percentage allocation from the treasuries of the S&P 500 companies would represent hundreds of billions of dollars of new, sustained buying pressure for Bitcoin. The move by Genius Group is not an isolated event; it is the leading edge of a seismic shift in how the corporate world perceives and utilizes money.
Conclusion: The Dawn of a New Epoch
Bitcoin stands at a historic inflection point. The current period of quiet consolidation is deceptive; beneath the surface, a powerful confluence of forces is converging to launch the asset into its next major chapter. The market's internal structure has never been healthier, with the holdings of early whales being patiently absorbed by a new and committed class of buyers, building a formidable price floor far above previous highs. The technical charts are screaming of an imminent and powerful breakout, with the tightening Bollinger Bands signaling a massive release of energy that heavily favors the upside.
Layered on top of this potent technical and structural setup is a perfect storm of external catalysts. The specter of global economic instability driven by tariffs, the focused attention of a "Crypto Week," the unparalleled influence of figures like Elon Musk, and the shocking but legitimizing entry of Bitcoin into the partisan political arena are all acting as powerful tailwinds. This is all underpinned by the quiet but revolutionary trend of institutional and corporate adoption, which promises to bring waves of new capital into the asset for years to come.
The consolidation will soon end. The question is not about direction, but about magnitude. The forces at play are no longer just about market cycles; they are about a fundamental repricing of a global, non-sovereign asset in a world grappling with economic and political uncertainty. The stage is set for a breakout that could not only shatter previous all-time highs but could also permanently elevate Bitcoin's status, solidifying its role as a cornerstone of the 21st-century financial and political landscape.
looking for shorts on bitcoin My point of interset for going short on bitcoin is taking that buyside out and waiting for something on the 1hr timeframe for my entry, for now i am on the side lines and not going to trade in the middle of the range. I do belive that at these levels bitcoin is do for a huge correction. We can even revisit that weekly fvg.
BTC CHOPSBitcoin is quietly grinding higher, holding above the key $105,787 level after reclaiming it with authority. Price is consolidating just under $112,000 resistance, pressing against the top of the range while riding the 50-day moving average like a support rail.
The dip to $100,716 was a trap. Buyers stepped in hard, and price hasn’t looked back. But without a decisive close above $112K, this remains a waiting game. A breakout sends us flying. A rejection brings $105K and $100K back into view. No need to guess - just let the levels speak.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin record a new ATH?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its medium-term ascending channel. Maintaining the specified support area will lead to the continuation of Bitcoin’s upward path and recording a new ATH. If it is corrected, we can look for Bitcoin buying positions from the specified demand zones.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand area.
In recent days, Bitcoin has been stabilizing in a price range of around $107,000, with the market simultaneously witnessing a combination of short-term volatility and massive accumulation by institutional investors. A close examination of Bitcoin’s fundamental parameters shows that the market has entered a different phase than in the past; one that is no longer driven solely by momentary excitement, and that structured capital flows and on-chain data have formed its main axis. At the forefront of this trend are Bitcoin spot investment funds (Bitcoin ETFs), which reached their highest level of capital inflows in June. Total net inflows of these funds reached more than $4.5 billion last month, and on some days even approached more than $1 billion. Funds such as BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC now have billions of dollars in assets under management, a clear sign of increasing institutional participation in the Bitcoin market. These institutional investors are accumulating Bitcoin not with a short-term view, but with a long-term view and through legal means, which has reduced selling pressure and increased market stability.
On the other hand, the data from Anchin clearly shows that the market is in a steady accumulation trend. The amount of old Bitcoins held for more than 8 years experienced a significant growth of 5% in the second quarter of 2025. This statistic shows that long-term investors are not only reluctant to sell, but are still accumulating their assets. Also, the MVRV ratio, which indicates the relative profit or loss of the market, has decreased from 2.29 to 2.20, indicating mild and controlled profit taking by some investors, rather than widespread selling pressure or general panic. This rational behavior is a sign of market maturity and investors’ intelligence in managing short-term profits.
On-chain activity data also shows a similar trend. The average daily active addresses have reached around 1.02 million, indicating a decrease in market inflammation while maintaining overall dynamism. Other indicators such as Liveliness and Whale Accumulation also confirm that the amount of old transaction traffic has decreased and whales are mainly accumulating, not supplying. This trend is very valuable, especially in a market that has been far from explosive growth. From a macro perspective, the Bitcoin market is clearly in a consolidation and accumulation phase, but this consolidation is based on much stronger foundations than in previous periods. Institutional capital inflows via ETFs have reached over $50 billion, providing a strong foundation for continued growth. Also, some very old wallets that have been inactive for nearly 14 years have recently woken up and moved around $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. Although this could be a sign of potential supply, the market has not yet seen a significant negative reaction to it in the current market conditions and the market remains cautious.
Analysts believe that Bitcoin is in the third phase of its bullish cycle after the halving, which could bring gains of more than 120%. Some forecasts suggest a price range of $200,000-250,000 by the end of this year; however, the realization of such levels is subject to stable macroeconomic data, ETF performance and the absence of severe geopolitical shocks.
Finally, it can be said that the Bitcoin market has now reached a maturity where even periods of consolidation tend to strengthen its fundamentals rather than weaken the market. High-powered institutional investors are entering, whales continue to accumulate instead of selling, and long-term investors also see a bright outlook for the coming months. In this phase, price levels of $125,000 to $140,000 are likely by the end of the summer if the current trend continues, while in the event of severe economic or political pressures, key support for Bitcoin will be in the $95,000 to $100,000 range. Overall, Bitcoin is moving slowly but steadily towards higher targets, with stronger support than at any time in its history.
BTCUSD 7/4/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you a Market Breakdown of Bitcoins current Price Action here on Independence Day! It's all about reading the Candles that the market presents, to determine what Price is doing & ultimately going to do.
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
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July 3 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysis
Hello
This is Bitcoin Guide.
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Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There will be a Nasdaq index announcement at 9:30 and 11:00 in a little while.
I created today's strategy based on the Nasdaq pattern and Tether dominance vertical decline conditions.
*One-way long position strategy when the red finger moves
1. $109,838 long position entry point / stop loss price when the purple support line is broken
2. $111,549.7 long position 1st target -> Great 2nd target
The 1st section at the top and the 2nd section at the bottom are sideways sections.
Even if the strategy fails, if the green support line is not broken,
it is good for a long position.
Below that
Bottom -> Please note that it is open up to 107,841.4 dollars
Up to this point, I ask that you simply use my analysis for reference and use only
I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you.
BTC AT RESISTANCEThe jobs report just dropped and was stronger than expected. That means the Fed has less reason to cut. That means less chance of immediate liquidity. Since we live in the upside down, apparently more jobs are bad for markets. And we generally see Bitcoin react first and then quickly go back to trading on its own.
All of that said, this is an interesting spot. Bitcoin broke out yesterday, before closing back below the resistance. The same is happening so far today, with a potentially ugly top candle if the day stays this way. But it is WAY too early to judge.
BITCOIN Rejected (so far) where it absolutely SHOULDN'T!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the top of the Channel Down pattern, which as we've discussed numerous times, is most likely on the long-term a Bull Flag technically. Still, this early test has so far turned into a rejection.
Early on to tell as the price remains above even the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but if it breaks above the closes a 1D candle above the top of the pattern, we expect it to immediately target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level at 119500. We have analyzed of course why on the long-term the Target is at least $150k, but this is a shorter term analysis. Notice also how the 1D RSI has already broken above its Lower Highs trend-line.
As long as the price remains rejected within the Channel Down, it is possible to look for support on the 100000 level again, where this time it may make contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) in an attempt to 'attract' the last batch of buyers.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Btc Usd IH&SHi all. BTC is in an IH&S on top of a larger IH&S pattern it seems. Pullback to 96K possible. But looking good for longer term trades. I'm sure this will pump, not 70K as most are saying, 90K is the lowest for now imo. Not financial advice. Please do your own research. Please leave a like, some motivation for an update. Good luck with your next trade.
BITCOIN STRONG RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅BITCOIN is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 112,000$
Which is also an All-Time-High
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 107,300$
SHORT🔥
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Bullish bounce?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 106,009.96
1st Support: 103.943.66
1st Resistance: 108,761.68
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BTCUSD parallel channel On the daily chart, BTCUDS is running in the parallel channel. The short-term market fell back after testing the upper resistance. At present, we can pay attention to the short-selling trading opportunities, and the downside target is around 98000. If the price breaks through the resistance near 108800, it will break the channel.