**Hey everyone, Bitcoin Shorts!** Hey everyone, Bitcoin Shorts!
Hope you’re all doing well—or at least clinging to sanity while crypto plays its usual game of "emotional damage roulette." 🎢
Trading these days requires nerves of titanium—one minute you’re a genius, the next you’re Googling "how to explain massive losses to my significant other." (Ahem, like that time I turned 50K into SOL-d memories trying to short it. But hey, tuition fees for the school of hard knocks, right?)
Chart Breakdown (with a side of self-awareness):
Long until 109,950 (chart looks bullish, but if I’m wrong and we dip below 106,750, I’ll flip to a manual short—only after confirming a double top + Fib pullback on lower timeframes (3m-15m).
Yes, this is me fighting the trend like a stubborn mule. Old habits die hard—just ask my 2023 P&L.
Then short the pattern down to 97,700 (or 88,800 for that sweet 37x fantasy).
Currently longing to 135,000 (50x), but always wait for the retest. (Patience is a virtue… until the 4AM caffeine wears off.)
Bonus Wisdom (because crypto loves irony):
"Trend is your friend"—unless you’re a thrill-seeker like me who occasionally treats Fib levels like a trampoline.
Side note: Crypto adores Fibonacci more than a conspiracy theorist loves a good pattern. Respect the levels, or they’ll disrespect your wallet.
Final Advice:
May your entries be sniper-precise, your stops be actually placed, and your mental health survive the 3AM wicks. And remember—if all else fails, there’s always the "blame the whales" exit strategy.
Trade safe(ish). 🚀
BTCUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin on track as alwaysHello,
This chart is a Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on a weekly timeframe (1W) from BITSTAMP, with annotations around halving cycles, historical patterns, and projected tops. Let’s break down the key insights and patterns visible in this chart, especially focusing on the implications for the next potential top following the 4th halving on April 20, 2024.
🔁 Cycle Structure and Repeating Patterns
Each cycle is defined between two halving events:
1st Halving: Nov 28, 2012
2nd Halving: Jul 9, 2016
3rd Halving: May 11, 2020
4th Halving: Apr 20, 2024
Each halving is followed by:
Accumulation/Sideways Period (marked in purple boxes)
Strong Bull Run to a new all-time high
Sharp Correction
Longer consolidation until the next halving
So, we use historical halving-based fractals to forecast the next Bitcoin bull cycle top around October 2025, assuming a consistent 525-day post-halving rally. The current price structure aligns closely with prior cycles, suggesting BTC is still on track. If the pattern holds, we may see a strong upward trend from mid/late 2024 into late 2025, with a potential blow-off top near the cycle peak.
⚠️ Caveats
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results
Each cycle may rhyme but not repeat exactly – macro conditions, regulations, ETFs, institutional flows, and global liquidity all play bigger roles now
Diminishing returns are evident – each cycle's ROI peak is lower
BITCOIN Seems to have Broken the LONG Term resistance- BIG DAY
The chart really does say it all
You can see the Arc, above PA that has rejected PA Every ATH since 2013
It created the point of rejection on 6 ATH in Total and presented a huge problem if it was not broken. And I can assure you, that arc touches Every ATH.
Just recently, this same line rejected PA Twice, with strength.
The Zoomed chart below shows you where we are now
This image shows you the two 2021 ATH points. and the last two touches { which I find remarkably close to the 2021 double ATH but in miniature }
And, as you can see, we have a candle ABOVE this Arc of resistance. and the Big question is now, WILL WE STAY ABOVE
And what is also notable is how this has happened perfectly at the end of the FIB TIME SCALE used.
This line will have to be tested as support one day and when that day comes, we really REALLY need to remain above.
And once we do that..we really will be in price discovery, in a way that we have never been before.
I am looking at some charts that may offer projected lines of resistance but I am waiting to see what happens here first before publishing them
ENJOY THE RIDE
BTC (Y25. P2.E3).AB=CD scenarioHi traders,
In the past, ATH's have made consistent pullbacks soon after with 14%.
This time round I do expect the same, to shake out before we do new highs.
Macro wise, I still have the Cup and Handle targets.
Short term, this aligns well with my support levels.
For now, the VAL or neckline is likely to be resistance.
We had a obvious descending wedge breakout, its hit its target. and now we should range, consolidate here before price makes a decision.
For more updates, come to our forum.
All the best,
S.SAri
Bitcoin H1 | Pullback support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 109.174.00 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 105,800.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 113,948.50 which is a resistance that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection.
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BTC Bulls Awakening from the Shadows – OB + 79% Fib Reaction 📈 BTCUSD | 30-Min Bullish Reversal Setup from OB + 79% Fib Zone
Smart Money never misses a good discount… and this BTCUSD setup is that juicy premium-to-discount play we wait for.
🔍 1. Price Action Context
Market sold off into a clearly defined Order Block
Price tapped precisely at the 79% Fib level
Internal liquidity sweep confirmed below recent equal lows
No candle close below OB = structure still intact
This is what we call the "Trap + Reverse" move. Late shorts just got baited.
🧱 2. Confluences Stacking Up
💎 79% Fib Retracement — Deep discount zone for Smart Money
💎 Bullish Order Block — Last up candle before the sharp sell-off
💎 Liquidity Sweep — Price swept short-term lows = inducement
💎 Channel Structure — Midline bounce = potential breakout
The OB + Fib overlap = a high-probability buy zone with minimal risk
🎯 3. Trade Plan
Entry Zone: 108,250–108,650
Stop Loss: Below 108,000
Take Profit: 110,758 (premium zone)
⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio)
📥 Entry: ~108,400
🔒 SL: 108,000
💰 TP: 110,758
✅ RRR ≈ 1:5.8
This is sniper-level asymmetric risk. You don’t chase candles — you wait here, like a lion in the grass 🦁.
🔁 5. What to Watch Next
Price must reclaim and close above 108,867 for confirmation
If we get a BOS (Break of Structure) above 109,200 = 🚀
Hold above the mid-channel line = bullish continuation
💬 Comment “LONGED BTC 💎” if you caught this with the OB bounce!
📌 Save this to study OB + Fib synergy.
👀 Watch price action at 109,200 — breakout zone incoming?
BTC/USD ssibly initiating a new bearish phase.
Asset: Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Timeframe: 4-hour (4h)
Platform: TradingView
Price Range: Chart shows BTC trading around $108,998.31
---
🧠 Technical Concepts Used:
🔁 Market Structure Terms:
BOS (Break of Structure):
Located on the left side, indicating a shift in trend direction.
Signifies a strong bearish break, typically following a bullish run, possibly initiating a new bearish phase.
CHOCH (Change of Character):
Mid-chart, near a significant support zone.
Indicates a potential bullish reversal or accumulation phase after a downtrend.
HH/HL (Higher Highs/Higher Lows):
Indicate an uptrend following the CHOCH area.
Bullish market structure forming a channel.
---
🟩 Zones & Targets:
🔲 Support and Resistance Zones:
Support Zone: Marked near the bottom (~$82,000–$85,000 range)
Resistance Zone: Near the top (~$110,000 area), where price currently hovers
🎯 Targets and Forecast:
First Target: Mid-level demand zone around ~$96,000–$98,000
Final Target: Strong demand zone around ~$92,000
Price Path Projection:
Suggests a potential drop from current levels (Red arrow)
Temporary bounce at first target, followed by another drop to final target
Afterwards, a potential bullish retracement or reversal
---
📐 Technical Patterns & Tools:
Trend Channel: Price is moving inside an ascending parallel channel.
Arrow Markings:
Show a forecast of retracement and potential consolidation or reversal.
Liquidity Zones: Highlighted zones suggest institutional interest areas where price may react significantly.
---
📅 Timestamp and Device Info:
Chart Date/Time: Sunday, 25th May 2025, 12:00
Current System Time: 10:21 PM, 27th May 2025
Platform: Dell Laptop with Windows OS
---
✅ Summary Like a Pro:
> "The BTC/USD 4H chart presents a classic smart money setup. Following a break of structure (BOS) and change of character (CHOCH), the price entered a bullish structure forming higher highs. Currently, price action is in a premium zone nearing resistance, suggesting a potential bearish move targeting the first demand zone around $96,000 and final institutional support near $92,000. A corrective retracement is expected before any significant bullish continuation, aligning with key liquidity and order block zones."
BTC (Y25.P2.E4). Potential bullish fractal to take placeHi traders,
Price is bullish and its likely we will see more ATH to come.
Here, with a peak, followed by a troph, we found support like the macro Y21 BTC price action. Hence finding that support level makes sense to long.. To early to find a long but it could come soon.
Alternatively, we see a AB=CD move to 105k level, but this is looking less likely
The ABC target, is 1 to 1, which aligns to take the liquidity above this ATH level.
Or Its a wave 2 level and hence a bigger move of wave 3.
All the best,
S.SAri
Market next move
Disruption of the Bullish Bias:
1. False Breakout Risk
The area marked with a red rectangle might be showing signs of consolidation, but there's a possibility that the bullish breakout is a bull trap.
Volume does not strongly confirm a breakout; note that the volume on the recent upward candles is not significantly higher than the surrounding bars — often a sign of weak buyer conviction.
2. Resistance Overhead
BTC is approaching the psychological level of 110,000, which may act as resistance.
Price action shows several small-bodied candles with wicks, indicating indecision or rejection from higher levels.
3. Bearish Divergence Potential
If paired with RSI or MACD indicators (not visible in this image), there might be signs of bearish divergence — price making higher highs while the indicator makes lower highs.
4. Liquidity Sweep Scenario
The recent wick into the highlighted zone could be a liquidity sweep — grabbing stop-losses before reversing downward.
This would support a bearish move contrary to the bullish forecast.
5. Market Sentiment & Fundamentals
Ignoring macro events such as Fed decisions, ETF movements, or regulatory news can be dangerous. If bearish news breaks out, technical setups can fail fast
Market next move Original Analysis Summary:
Identifies a bullish structure breaking above a support area.
Projects a potential continuation to higher targets.
Suggests consolidation and bounce from support before climbing.
---
Disruptive Bearish Interpretation:
1. Lower High Possibility:
Recent price action might be forming a lower high rather than a continuation signal, signaling weakness in buying pressure.
2. Volume Imbalance:
Notice how the large green candle was followed by lower bullish volume, suggesting buying momentum is fading.
3. Breakout Trap:
The "Support area" may instead be a liquidity zone where breakout traders entered long positions and could now be trapped. A break below this area could cause a panic sell-off.
4. Trendline Respect (Rejection):
Price is currently retesting the underside of a descending trendline — a common reversal spot.
Bitcoin Analysis – Can Buyers Push the Price Up to $116,000?OANDA:BTCUSD is trading within a clearly defined ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bullish momentum indicates that buyers are in control, suggesting a potential continuation.
Price has recently broken through a key resistance zone and may return to retest it. If this level holds as support, it will reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a move toward the 116,000 target, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel.
As long as price remains above this support zone, the bullish outlook remains intact. However, a break below this level could invalidate the setup and increase the likelihood of a deeper pullback.
Remember, always confirm your setup and trade with solid risk management.
Good luck!
BTCUSD UPDATE : 27- 5 - 2025This chart shows a 1-hour time frame for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on Bitstamp, with technical analysis indicating a potential bearish move. Here’s a breakdown of the chart:
Price Range: The chart highlights a trading range between approximately $102,714 (support) and $112,053 (resistance), marked with yellow zones.
Current Price: BTC is trading around $109,026.
Bearish Signal: A blue arrow points downward, suggesting an anticipated drop in price.
Pattern Suggestion: It looks like a potential double top or lower high is forming, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
Target Zone: The arrow points towards the support zone around $102,714, implying that the chartist expects BTC to fall to that level.
This type of analysis is often used for short-term trades and may involve setting stop-losses near $112,053 and profit targets near $102,714. Let me know if you'd like help interpreting this pattern further or backtesting the setup.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Central Banks Pick Gold (Here's Why)
The debate over the ultimate store of value has been reignited in the digital age. For centuries, gold, the immutable yellow metal, has been the bedrock of wealth preservation, the trusted haven in times of turmoil, and a core component of central bank reserves. In the last decade, a new contender has emerged: Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, often touted as "digital gold." Yet, as the dust settles on initial exuberance and institutional scrutiny intensifies, a clear preference is emerging from the world's most conservative financial institutions. Central banks, the guardians of national wealth and financial stability, are overwhelmingly demonstrating their continued faith in gold, signaling that when it comes to the ultimate safe reserve, tradition and tangibility still trump technological novelty.
The evidence for this preference is not merely anecdotal; it's etched in the consistent and accelerating trend of global gold accumulation by these institutions. In recent years, central banks have been on a gold buying spree, a phenomenon driven by a confluence of potent global factors. The shifting geopolitical landscape, characterized by increased tensions, trade disputes, and a move towards a more multipolar world, has spurred a desire for assets that are not tied to any single nation's political or economic fortunes. Policies emanating from major economic powers, including periods of heightened trade protectionism and shifting global alliances, have historically fanned uncertainty, prompting a flight to assets perceived as universally valuable and politically neutral – a role gold has fulfilled for millennia.
Furthermore, concerns over the long-term value of major fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar which has long dominated global reserves, are playing a significant role. Persistent fiscal deficits, expanding sovereign debt levels, and unprecedented monetary stimulus measures in various countries have led to an undercurrent of apprehension about potential currency devaluation. In such an environment, central banks are actively seeking to diversify their holdings and hedge against the erosion of purchasing power. Gold, with its intrinsic value and finite supply, offers a compelling alternative to holding ever-increasing amounts of fiat currency, whose value can be diluted by policy decisions. This strategic de-dollarization, or at least a diversification away from dollar-centric reserves, sees gold as a primary beneficiary. It is a tangible asset that sits outside the traditional financial system, offering a layer of insulation from the counterparty risks inherent in holding other nations' currencies or debt.
In stark contrast to this institutional embrace of gold stands Bitcoin. While proponents champion its decentralized nature, its mathematically enforced scarcity, and its potential as an inflation hedge, its inherent characteristics currently make it a challenging proposition for central bank reserves. The most glaring issue is its extreme volatility. Bitcoin's price history is a rollercoaster of meteoric rises and precipitous falls. For an individual retail investor, this volatility might be a tolerable, even attractive, risk in pursuit of outsized returns. However, for a central bank, whose primary mandate includes capital preservation and maintaining financial stability, such wild price swings are anathema. Reserve assets must be relatively stable, liquid, and dependable. Bitcoin, in its current state, struggles to meet these criteria consistently. A significant allocation to Bitcoin could expose a nation's reserves to sudden and substantial losses, undermining public trust and potentially destabilizing its financial position.
This volatility poses a tangible risk, not just theoretically, but as observed in the experiences of investors globally, including those in the U.S. While some have reaped fortunes, many others have faced considerable losses due to ill-timed investments or the market's unpredictable nature. Institutional investors, including those in the U.S., while showing increasing interest in Bitcoin as a speculative asset class or a small part of a diversified portfolio, still largely treat it with caution. The kind of deep, unwavering institutional trust that gold commands – built over centuries of proven performance as a store of value and a crisis hedge – has yet to be earned by Bitcoin. Gold’s market is deep, liquid, and well-understood, with established clearing and settlement mechanisms. Bitcoin's market infrastructure, while maturing, is still relatively nascent and fragmented compared to the centuries-old gold market.
Beyond volatility, other factors hinder Bitcoin's adoption as a mainstream reserve asset for central banks. Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant hurdle. The global regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies is a patchwork of differing approaches, with some nations embracing innovation while others impose strict controls or outright bans. For central banks, which operate within stringent legal and regulatory frameworks, this lack of global consensus and clarity is a major deterrent. The operational risks associated with custody and security of digital assets at a sovereign scale are also non-trivial. While blockchain technology is inherently secure, managing private keys for billions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin requires sophisticated and untested protocols for institutions of this nature.
Furthermore, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" sometimes overlooks fundamental differences. Gold is a physical commodity with diverse industrial and cultural uses, providing a baseline of demand beyond its monetary role. It is universally recognized and accepted, transcending technological barriers. Bitcoin’s value is derived primarily from its network effects, its code, and investor belief in its future utility and adoption. While powerful, these are different underpinnings than the tangible reality of physical gold bullion held in a central bank's vault.
The actions of central banks speak volumes. While a handful of smaller nations or entities might experiment with Bitcoin, the overwhelming majority of major central banks, those that collectively manage the bulk of global reserves, have either remained silent on Bitcoin or have issued cautious warnings, all while steadily increasing their physical gold holdings. This isn't to say that Bitcoin has no future role or value. It may well continue to evolve as a speculative asset, a niche store of value for some, or a technology platform for new financial applications. However, the idea that it is poised to usurp gold's position in the vaults of central banks appears premature, if not fundamentally misguided, given its current attributes.
In conclusion, the debate between Bitcoin and gold as the preferred store of value and reserve asset has a clear, if perhaps unexciting, winner in the eyes of the world's central banks. Faced with geopolitical instability, the specter of dollar devaluation, and the enduring need for reliable safe-haven assets, these institutions are doubling down on gold. Its long history, proven stability, tangibility, and lack of counterparty risk resonate deeply with their conservative mandates. Bitcoin's volatility, regulatory ambiguity, and operational complexities, while potentially surmountable in the distant future, currently render it unsuitable for the core reserve holdings of nations. While U.S. investors and others may grapple with Bitcoin's risk-reward profile, central banks have largely made their choice, and that choice, for now and the foreseeable future, remains firmly with the ancient, trusted allure of gold.
Updated analysis on bitcoinLets watch BITCOIN go to the MOON🤑
Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle.
Every 12-18 months we see a MASSIVE bull run. We call this halving
I predict Bitcoin can reach $150K by late 2025 based on those cycle trends
Adam back believes Bitcoin will reach 500K-$1M in this cycle. He gets this from high institutional demand. So don’t set take profits, haha.
With this all time high of almost 112k, don’t expect a drop this time. We will likely soar above 150k soon, be ready 🤑
Good luck traders!
(also the chart speaks for itself)
Weekly trading plan for BitcoinIn this idea I marked the important levels for this week and considered a few scenarios of price performance
Pivot point of this week at the level of $107,700, at its breakdown we can expect a deeper correction
Write a comment with your coins & hit the like button and I will make an analysis for you
The author's opinion may differ from yours,
Consider your risks.
Wish you successful trades ! mura