BTC OutlookIn the volatile world of trading, uncertainty is the only constant. Could prices dip to 75k before surging to 115k? Is such a drop a brief pullback or the start of a prolonged downturn? What technical or fundamental signals might indicate a recovery toward 115k?
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BTCUSD trade ideas
Breaking: Bitcoin Loses $80,000 Support The price of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) today saw a noteworthy downtick of 2.24% today making it down 7% since last week losing the $80k grip. This move came days after Donald Trump the recently elected president, on Wednesday, announced a minimum tariff rate of 10% and higher rates for 57 economies like China (34%), the European Union (20%), and Japan (24%). Fitch Ratings estimated that the effective tariff rate could hit 25% on average — the highest in more than 115 years.
The asset has tanked to the $76,000- $74,000 support point, placing CRYPTOCAP:BTC on the brink of a selling spree should CRYPTOCAP:BTC break below the $70k support, possible retracement should be around the $60- $50k support points.
Similarly, with CRYPTOCAP:BTC trading below key Moving Averages (MA), and the RSI at 35, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is gearing up for a reversal albeit the market is still volatile. If Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) should break the 1-month high resistant a possible uptick to $120k is feasible.
Bitcoin Price Live Data
The live Bitcoin price today is $77,615.23 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $78,391,741,615 USD. Bitcoin is down 5.64% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a live market cap of $1,540,502,278,162 USD. It has a circulating supply of 19,847,937 BTC coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins.
Bitcoin BEARISH - BTC Strong Resistance On Weekly TFBitcoin has reached strong resistance on the weekly TF. The resistance line goes the whole way back to 2017. So it's very reliable. A strong move downwards is very likely!
Based on previous times this line was tested, Bitcoin could fall 50% or more. However, the 74000-75000 level looks like a good support level. This would be about a 30% drop which is still very significant.
I expect profit taking very soon and short sellers to come in. There could possibly even be global headline news to cause this drop.
Be very careful in buying near the tops. Trade with your brain and not emotions. This is only an idea and anything can happen, but it's a weekly chart and seems very reliable.
Bitcoin (BTC): We Are In Profits, "Bloody Monday" "Bloody Monday," as they call it, is currently breaking every local support zone on smaller timeframes, and we have more and more BOS on the way.
While we are not yet where we want to be, we are keeping a close eye on our target zone, which we are going to reach, no doubt.
After that we will see how price will reach that zone and determine if we fall more or have the push we've been needing.
Swallow Academy
#BTCUSDT.. single supporting area, holds or not ??#BTCUSDT. perfect move as per our last couple of ideas regarding #btcusdt
Now market have current supporting area that is around 82300
Keep close that level because if market clear that level then we can expect a further drop towards downside next areas.
Good luck
Trade wisely
Bitcoin Lost 50 SMA overnight, what next ? - still BULLISH.In a week where I am still expecting the beginnings of a bounce, we saw a Major Drop overnight.
This has pushed PA below the 50 SMA that I was hoping PA would bounce off, as it had previously.
So, Whats Next ?
It is not as bad as it may appear but CAUTION is a Very Very good idea.
There are a number of lines of support below and if we do not find any soon, 73K is the next line of Support. then down to 71K and ultimately, the long term line at 64K, though I still doubt we will get that low.
But FEAR is BIG...be a Vulture..Buy the remains of people Fear...Bitcoin IS a Scarce asset and people Still want it.
The Weekly MACD
The MACD is now in the bounce Zone. Yes, it may drop below neutral if this "Tariff Fear" continues. But Technically, We now have the ability to bounce once sentiment turns
On a slightly more bearish side is the fact that Histogram has dived deep and Red. The Bears are biting and has momentum
The RSI Relative Strength Index
Like the MACD, the RSI is now in an area where it has bounced in the past and yet, it can still drop further before we reach Neutral ( 30 line ) . It has to be said, the RSI is a bit behind the MACD in that it has a later date when it could reach Neutral. There is no guarantee that Neutral will hold RSI up....
Other Markets are struggling also
The DXY $ has had a sustained drop but is near an area of support. I am watching this closely.
Normaly, we see DXY and BTC move in opposite directions but we have seen both Recover at the same time, The lines between the teo are getting blurred.
GOLD - has been doing well for some omnths
However, in th elast 2 weeks, Gold has been selling off also and saw a steep drop towards the end of last week. Will be very interesting to see where this goes this week
The fact that Gold was selling, shows that investors were comfortable to leave a safe haven.
Lets see if that changes this weel
Conclusion for BITCOIN HOLDERS
This could all sound a little scary for Bitcoin and it should be taken as a HUGE Warning that we Lost the 50 SMA Support. This does open up the possibility of further drops and it may well happen
We are currently heading towards major support at 73K
This is an area I said we could hit a few weeks back and so I am not in a bad state of mind just yet.
If we Loose 71K, I will get uncomfortable.
The Lower timeframes are very much heading to OVERSOLD and so we shold get some support here and then we wait to see if Fear takes hold further.
This week, we Get the FOMC minutes and then Inflation data coming out of the USA
Thsi could Tip the balance either way, depending on the data
For me, I am NOT Selling Just yet.
I imagine many Short term holders will be and these coins will be snapped back up
We wait to see how today plays out
BUY THE DIP
Bitcoin’s Doom: The Collapse Has Begun 50K comingBitcoin is on the verge of a catastrophic collapse, and the monthly chart confirms it. We have officially topped out, signaling the beginning of the 2025 bear market. The so-called “dumb money” is now holding onto their sinking bags, while the smart money has long since exited.
-RSI is trending downward, confirming exhaustion.
-The bull market is officially over.
-A steep decline to $50,000 and below is inevitable.
This is not just another correction—it’s the start of Bitcoin’s terminal decline. The dream of $100K has failed, and reality is setting in. As quantum computing advances and error rates decrease, Bitcoin’s encryption will be broken, rendering it obsolete and worthless.
The pet rock is sinking, and soon the crypto bubble will implode in spectacular fashion. The crash is not just coming—it’s already here.
Prepare for the reckoning. 🔥
Don’t Trade the Headlines—Trade the Chart: My BTC Game PlanThere’s been a flood of noise in the media over the past few weeks—headlines shouting about uncertainty, new U.S. tariffs, market crashes, and an impending recession.
Years ago, I used to pay close attention to this kind of news, identifying myself as a "fundamental analyst". It didn't take long until I realised that I was looking in the wrong direction.
What changed my mindset was reflecting on how I felt during past market dips and how that feeling often contradicted what actually happened next. In almost every major move, my emotions—heavily influenced by media narratives—led me the wrong way. This time, I believe, is no different.
Despite bearish sentiment and doomsday headlines, I see opportunity. Even if a recession is on the horizon—and I do believe it’s likely—the market has a way of pricing in fear before the real damage hits. That means the upside may start before the worst news becomes obvious.
Before diving into my analysis and strategy, I recommend reading my privous publication, which is also linked to this publication
Chart Analysis & Market Status:
As anticipated, Bitcoin is currently retesting the capitulation price range that was first reached on February 28. Since then, volume has remained relatively low, while the Fear & Greed Index has started to slightly rise—indicating that panic selling may have already subsided.
The price is also sitting around the 20-week EMA, a level that has historically acted as a strong support zone. This alignment suggests that bearish sentiment may already be priced in, and we could be at or near the bottom of the current cycle—regardless of the broader macro fears.
My Current Strategy
🔹 Position: I remain bullish at current levels.
🔹 Exposure: 30% of my capital is already deployed.
Bullish Scenarios
Scenrio 1: (More Likely)
If the market bounces in the next 1–2 weeks, then retests this same price range with a healthy pullback, I’ll deploy another 40% of my capital.
From there, I’ll follow the "blue model" (my projected price path) all the way up until either my timing target or pricing target is hit—whichever comes first.
I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Scenario 2: (Less likely)
If Bitcoin loses the current support at the 20-week EMA, I’ll allocate 20% at the $71K–$72K range and remain bullish—as the broader macro structure stays intact— considring this price as Wyckoff Spring.
Then I will eploying further 20% at around $80K when market bounces back considering it as Sign of Strength of current Re-Accumolation zone.
I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Bearish Scenario: (Least Likely)
If Bitcoin breaks below the FWB:73K level—the peak of the previous wave—I’ll deploy another 20% around the 50-week EMA (currently near GETTEX:64K ).
This would invalidate the current bullish model, but my strategy adapts: my average entry would drop to ~$73K. In that case, I plan to sell on the next bounce that retests the 20-week EMA.
I’ll still keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Final Thoughts:
As I always say: This market is stochastic—not deterministic. You can’t plug in numbers and expect a fixed outcome. There is no perfect formula. That’s why a well-structured Plan B is essential for survival and success.
Don't let headlines write your trades. Let the chart do the talking.
BTC Bears about to get liquidA continuation of distribution is still in play for bitcoin and the alt market.
Maybe a few more days of bleeding but not much lower from here.
Currently in SOW Phase B (Sign of Weakness in Phase B) v
d.stockcharts.com
Looking to see a quick turn around from this zone to the upside.
Target : $130,000
Bull TIMEThe image is a Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price chart from TradingView, dated April 7, 2025. It shows the price movement of Bitcoin over several months, with key levels and potential trends indicated. Here's a breakdown:
Current Price: $77,837
Timeframe: November 2024 to May 2025
Key Levels:
Resistance around $109,356
Support around $77,385
Bitcoin Outlook Amid Uncertainty and Mempool Congestion
This chart captures the current critical juncture for Bitcoin as it tests the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (~$74,277), a zone historically associated with trend reversals. The bounce or breakdown from this region may shape the mid-term trajectory.
The recent drawdown is not happening in a vacuum. Global macroeconomic turbulence including increasing U.S. tariffs, rising bond yields, and parallels to the 1985 Plaza Accord suggests deeper structural fragility. If history rhymes, we may be staring at the early tremors of a broader economic reset, possibly invoking a modern black swan event.
Technically, if support holds, Bitcoin may attempt a retracement back to the 0.5 or 0.382 levels (~$81,000–$87,000), but failure to defend this zone could open the door to the 0.786 retracement at $64,753 or worse, the full retrace to $52,622.
Compounding the uncertainty, network congestion continues to pressure transaction times and fees, especially during volatility spikes. Traders and institutions seeking faster confirmation may benefit from acceleration services to avoid critical delays during times of stress.
To help mitigate transaction bottlenecks during peak periods, a BTC accelerator Like fujn.com offers a Bitcoin transaction accelerator service for users who need faster confirmation times. This becomes especially valuable during mempool congestion, which often spikes alongside macro-driven volatility and sell-offs.
As technicals and fundamentals intertwine, keep an eye on both the chart and the mempool.