#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Yeah I won’t make shit up now. 4 consecutive daily doji bars around the middle of this triangle. Either fade the extremes or wait for the next big impulse. I still think that with all the ridiculous bullish crypto news over the past weeks, this has not printed 110k, is a big sign of weakness and the next impulse will be to the downside to test 73k again. Until then, play the range.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls printed another lower high and have nothing to show for after this week. They need daily closes above the 20ema and 100k to gain control again.
Invalidation is below 88k.
bear case: Bears closing every daily bar at the lows but fail to make lower lows below 95k, which is also weak. They are content with fading any bounce and until the broader market wants to reduce risk, this is probably staying between the given key levels.
Invalidation is above 110k.
short term: Neutral. Play the range until broken.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
We are in a big trading range until it’s clearly broken. Bearish targets will only happen once we get a strong move below 90k.
current swing trade: Nope
chart update: Nothing
