Coiled to Explode? BTC Printing Higher Lows into ResistanceContext – Structural Overview
BTC has returned to its all-time high resistance zone ($103K–$106K). The yellow zone marks a multi-month consolidation range — we’ve now re-entered the top of that range, testing for breakout. This is the fifth test of supply, with bulls showing growing aggression, but now showing early signs of exhaustion.
Technical Breakdown
1. Price Action – Multi-Touch Resistance
BTC is pressing up against the same resistance zone that capped price for months. Each pullback has created a higher low (marked with circles) — a sign of accumulation and pressure build-up. But Friday’s candle shows rejection from the upper range, forming a possible short-term shooting star.
Key takeaway: Market is either coiling for a breakout… or setting a bull trap at major resistance.
2. Volume – Weak Breakout Follow-Through
Volume has not increased significantly on this recent breakout attempt — a red flag. The previous breakout attempt also failed on low volume. For a true breakout above $106K, we need to see a volume spike + strong candle body.
3. MACD – Bullish Momentum Slowing
MACD is still bullish, but the histogram is fading, suggesting momentum is weakening. No bearish crossover yet, but it’s flattening, indicating stall risk. If histogram turns red, expect consolidation or a potential pullback.
4. RSI – Rejected at Overbought Line
RSI tagged 70 and immediately reversed, failing to push into extreme bullish territory. Classic RSI rejection behavior at overbought levels — especially at key resistance. This adds weight to the idea of a short-term top or cool-off phase.
Fibonacci & Structural Context
This zone overlaps with previous all-time highs and top-side of consolidation. Technically, this is a Golden Pocket Zone for a bull breakout or failure. Macro crypto sentiment is bullish, ETF flows are strong, and institutional adoption is ongoing. However, BTC has rallied ~40%+ off March lows, and the market may need to shake out weak longs before pushing to new highs.
Conclusion – High-Stakes Zone, Leaning Short-Term Toppy
Bearish Case (most likely short-term scenario)
Failed breakout above $106K; RSI rejection + MACD slowing; No volume confirmation. Could trigger a pullback toward $96K– GETTEX:92K support
Bearish Setup:
• Entry: below $102.5K
• Target: $96K, then GETTEX:92K
• Stop: above $106.5K
• Risk:Reward ~ 1:3
🚀 Bullish Case
Structure shows higher lows = ascending pressure
If BTC closes strong above $106K on high volume, the range is broken.
Next target = $114K–$120K
Bullish Setup:
• Entry: confirmed close > $106.5K
• Stop: under $102K
• Targets: $114K, then $120K+
Final Thought:
BTC is testing a multi-month ceiling with weak momentum, which often results in a short-term reversal or false breakout trap. But don’t fade it blindly — volume will confirm which way this breaks.
BTCUSD trade ideas
BTC still consolidates within a rangeIf you were like me, you got a little dose of hopium after BTC closed above last week's resistance around $105k.
Nonetheless, resistance was expected from $105k - $108k with price starting the week with a bearish engulfing candle, currently trading around $103.1k.
We will have to see if last week's support around $101.5k holds.
If the price continues with bullish momentum and does something like the period from 22 Apr - 6 May, a successful bull flag breakout could take BTC to $115k.
If support is lost, we could see retests of previous levels as low as $94.5k. However, my guess would be a test of $97.5k before going higher, creating a HHHL market structure.
May 16 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
This is the Nasdaq 30-minute chart.
There is no separate indicator announcement.
We proceeded with trend following.
After entering the 1st long position at the top,
If it does not break away from the purple support line, it goes up vertically.
*We proceeded along the red finger movement path in the next wave.
We expected the movement to be a strong rise.
From the bottom breakaway, it is open up to the 2nd section,
and we will omit the detailed explanation.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
At the bottom left, with a purple finger,
I connected the long position entry section of 101,785.1 dollars that I had on the 15th.
The current position is the 30 + 1 section,
but since the 4 and 6-hour central lines were also touched at the same time,
the mid-term pattern is broken,
and the daily chart MACD dead cross is in progress.
The strategy is one-way, one-way,
I am explaining it only on one page of the 30-minute chart,
so it is limited, but I organized it as simply as possible.
*When the blue finger moves
Two-way neutral
Short->Long or long waiting strategy
1. 104,791.3 dollars short position entry section / stop loss price when orange resistance line is broken
2. 103,241.8 dollars long position switching / stop loss price when green support line is broken
After that, long position target price in the order of Good -> Great
-> Refer to pink finger simulation.
If it touches the top once or comes down right away from the current position,
it is the final long waiting strategy at the bottom section 2.
From the bottom section breakout,
it is open from 3 -> 99345.9 dollars.
Please use my analysis article so far only for reference and use
I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss price.
Thank you for your hard work this week.
Bitcoin H4 | Pullback support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementBitcoin (BTC/USD) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 99,502.40 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 92,800.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 106,765.40 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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BITCOIN CORRECTION AHEAD|SHORT|
✅BITCOIN keeps growing in a
Strong uptrend in a narrowing
Bearish wedge pattern and the
Coin has reached a horizontal
Resistance level of 108000$
So IF we see a breakout from
The wedge a local bearish
Correction is to be expected
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
The Calm Before the Dump🧠 What we’re watching:
Trendline break from late March → backtest complete → potential rollover
Price is starting to form a lower high – classic reversal structure forming
MACRO support eyed at $91,429 (red zone) and then psychological $80K
Volume divergence + lower RSI highs pointing to exhaustion 🧯
🪓 The “90K zones again” annotation may become reality faster than bulls expect.
🎯 Bearish Targets:
$95,429 – liquidity sweep zone
$89,005 – strong structural support
Max fear level: $69,711 (previous macro floor)
❗ Caution: If BTC can’t reclaim and hold above $105K quickly, momentum could accelerate to the downside.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoCrash #BearishScenario #TA #BTCUSD
Bitcoin Retests Ascending Trendline After BreakoutBTCUSD daily chart shows price action respecting a rising trendline, following a successful breakout from previous pattern. This ascending trendline now acts as a key dynamic support and serves as a central guide for the medium-term bullish structure.
Currently, price is consolidating just below the $107,000 resistance area. There are two primary scenarios to consider:
Bullish Scenario:
A confirmed breakout and daily close above the $107,000 resistance could trigger another bullish leg, targeting the next level near $120,000.
Mild Bearish / Pullback Scenario:
If the price gets rejected again, it may retrace towards the ascending trendline around $95,000, which aligns with previous horizontal support and could serve as a solid buy-the-dip zone.
Trade Plan:
Buy Entry Option 1: On a breakout above $107,000 → Target: $120,000
Buy Entry Option 2: On a bounce from the trendline near $95,000
Key Levels for the Week 19-25/05/2025 ∷BitCoin∷🐍 Key Levels Overview for the Week🐍
__________________________
Resistances🔀 107397 , 114115 , 117344 , 124086
Mids∷∷∷ 101045 , 106675 , 108456 , 114878
Supports🔀 110275 , 101388 , 99326 , 88341
Trend Base Lines
108442🐂113313🐂113737🐂119204
105301🏛107030🏛107311🏛111272
104554🐻101465🐻100878🐻99353
BTCUSD WEEKLY OUTLOOK🔍 Key Observations
1. Recent Strong Buying Activity (May candles)
The last few candles show a surge in positive delta, particularly:
Delta: 2.11K, Total: 46.83K
Strong green imbalance, showing aggressive buyers stepping in.
The volume is increasing, with aggressive lifting of the offer—buyers are willing to pay higher prices.
2. Breaking Above Resistance
Price broke above $100,000, a key psychological level.
Holding above this level, with sustained buyer interest, suggests strength.
The high volume nodes have shifted upward, showing acceptance at higher prices.
3. Volume Clusters & Imbalance
Bullish footprint imbalance (more green than red in key areas), especially toward recent bars.
You can see stacked green imbalances, indicating initiative buying.
4. Low Selling Pressure
Despite some red prints, there is no significant downward delta or high-volume selling.
No large absorption zones that indicate sellers are absorbing buys aggressively.
5. Previous Consolidation as Support
April–early May candles show accumulation (sideways movement) before this breakout.
Consolidation zones between $85,000–$95,000 now act as a strong support floor.
✅ Entry Consideration: BUY BIAS
Conclusion:
The footprint chart suggests a BUY opportunity, especially if price continues to hold above the $100,000 level.
A pullback to $100,000–$101,000 with sustained buyer interest (seen via delta and imbalance) would be an ideal entry.
Watch for continued positive delta, low absorption, and price acceptance above $100K.
🚩 What to Watch For (Bearish Risk)
Large negative delta spikes or aggressive selling imbalances near resistance (~$109,000) would change the bias.
Failure to hold above $100K with heavy sell imbalances may signal a fakeout.
btc . recap . w3 . maymon to eager . wait mon to show its hand - cw!
. early LONG compound because of the bullish outlook
- tp2 108462
tue didn't ride momentum - blind bullish
. tp1 HIT
. missed SHORT at 10pm (UTC+2)
- should have traded the momentum of mon looking to form support during the week later . for more compound LONG
wed mid of range . cw
. no trade zone
thu
. waiting for run of aLow during ny
. compound LONG - 101485
. tp1 HIT
fri didnt catch enough upward momentum
. tp1 HIT
. last limit order for bullish continuation . tpo - 102862.5
wknd
. tp1 for weekly LONG idea finally hit
. duration 5d 22h
. +4.33%
conclusion :
trade what you see, go with momentum, but have a narrative.
outlook :
america downgraded from AAA to AA+ . People will turn hardcore bearish, once the price starts falling. this could be the trigger to find the long awaited drop - while having retail call out a bearmarket . massive potential here, to both sides. wOpen and monday full data (while keeping an close eye on tpo and footprint charts), are key .
BTCUSD 1H TIMEFRAME BULISH ZONEThe chart you've shared for BTC/USD (1H timeframe) indicates a bullish outlook based on the following elements:
Ascending Channels: Price moved within two rising channels, suggesting a bullish momentum.
Support Zone: Marked by arrows, previous bounces suggest strong support near 102,200–102,300.
Breakout and Pullback: Price appears to be forming a higher low, potentially preparing for the next upward leg.
Target Area: Marked around 105,630 (TP target).
Summary:
Entry (Buy Zone): Around 103,200–103,300.
Stop Loss (SL): Below 102,200 (conservative stop).
Take Profit (TP): 105,630 (as marked on chart).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2 or better.
BTCUSD - Bearish Rejection Below Resistance | Targeting 95KBitcoin is currently facing strong resistance at $104,833, just below the invalidation level at $106,486. Price action suggests a potential rejection or distribution pattern forming near this resistance zone.
A break below recent local support could trigger a move toward the next key support level at $95,371, representing a significant retracement area from the recent uptrend.
---
Trade Idea:
Entry: After confirmation of rejection below $104,800
Target: $95,371
Invalidation: Sustained breakout above $106,486
This setup favors bears in the short term, as long as price remains below the invalidation zone.
---
> Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Trade at your own risk.
BTCUSD Consolidates Beneath Sell-Side Liquidity WallMarket Context:
Bitcoin continues its high-conviction move off the March breakout, with price maintaining position above all major moving averages. Current price action is stalling beneath a concentrated area of offer-side liquidity between 105,400 and 105,500 as revealed by DOM data.
This level represents the next test for continuation and offers short-term resistance until absorbed.
Technical Breakdown:
Current Price: 105,385
Primary Trend: Bullish (Price above 50 EMA and 200 SMA)
Key Support Zones:
101,500 (prior range top)
97,500 (value node support)
88,000 (200 SMA proximity)
Key Resistance Zones:
105,500 (DOM-stacked sell wall)
109,500 (next major target above breakout)
Market Structure Insight:
After a clean break from the $97.5K–$101.5K consolidation zone, BTCUSD is now forming a tight range near local highs. The presence of passive sell orders on the DOM suggests that participants are absorbing into strength.
A confirmed break above 105,500 opens the door for range extension toward 109,500. Conversely, a close back inside the prior range below 101,500 would indicate a failed breakout and shift our near-term bias to neutral.
Trade Context – Mongoose Capital Positioning:
A long position remains open from the $75K region. No structural change to invalidate the broader trend thesis. DOM and TPO data continue to support the scenario for a secondary leg higher.
Next Target - $$$After a strong consolidation phase between ~$101,446 and ~$104,982, Bitcoin has broken out of a key horizontal range on the 4H chart. This breakout signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend with a measured move target around $1*****, representing a 9.94% gain from the breakout zone.
🔹 Chart Pattern: Horizontal range breakout
🔹 Target: ~$$$
🔹 Momentum: Still strong with bulls in control
This setup aligns with the ongoing bullish momentum and could be a key level to watch for both swing and short-term traders. Keep an eye on volume confirmation and possible retest of the breakout level.
BTCUSD - Bullish Breakout from Falling Wedge Pattern | Target Bitcoin has broken out of a Falling Wedge Pattern on the daily timeframe, signaling a bullish reversal that aligns with the broader market sentiment. Let’s examine this setup in detail, from pattern recognition to key support/resistance levels and trade planning.
🧠 Pattern Analysis – Falling Wedge Formation
The chart displays a textbook Falling Wedge, which is a bullish chart pattern that typically forms after a downtrend. It’s characterized by converging trendlines sloping downward, showing a slowdown in bearish momentum and a potential reversal point.
Formation Period: This wedge developed over a multi-week period (Feb–April 2025).
Structure: Each swing high and swing low forms lower highs and lower lows inside the wedge.
Breakout Confirmation: Price has decisively broken above the upper trendline of the wedge, validating a potential bullish continuation.
👉 Falling Wedge patterns are often seen near the end of a corrective move and suggest accumulation before a rally.
🔎 Key Technical Zones
🔸 Resistance Zone (~$103K–$105K)
This area has historically acted as a strong resistance zone.
Price is currently consolidating just below this region, indicating a possible breakout retest or a temporary pause before the next leg up.
🔸 Trendline Support
A new rising trendline has emerged post-breakout, acting as dynamic support.
Price has respected this trendline multiple times, forming higher highs and higher lows — a strong bullish signal.
🔸 SR Interchange Zone (~ GETTEX:92K –$94K)
Previously acted as resistance; now flipped to support.
This makes it a critical level where bulls may defend positions, and a good place for a stop-loss.
🔸 Support Zone (~$75K–$78K)
Major historical support area where the wedge bottom formed.
Buyers stepped in aggressively in this zone during the final leg of the wedge.
🎯 Trade Plan
This setup offers a clearly defined risk-reward profile based on breakout trading principles.
📌 Entry Idea:
Current consolidation near resistance offers two entry strategies:
Aggressive Entry: Near current price, anticipating breakout continuation.
Conservative Entry: On a confirmed breakout above $105K or a pullback to trendline support around GETTEX:98K –$100K.
✅ Target: $112,116
Measured by projecting the height of the wedge from the breakout point.
Also aligns with a previous key structural high, adding confluence to the target.
⛔ Stop Loss: $93,294
Strategically placed just below the SR interchange zone and rising trendline.
Protects against potential fakeouts or trendline breaks.
📉 Risk Management
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2:1 or higher depending on entry point.
Always use proper position sizing.
Be prepared to cut the trade if price closes below trendline and SR zone on high volume.
🔮 Outlook and Strategy
This breakout suggests Bitcoin may be entering a renewed bullish phase. If macro conditions remain favorable and price sustains above key support zones, we could see continuation toward the $112K region.
However, it’s important to monitor:
Volume: Watch for rising volume on any breakout above the resistance zone.
Market Sentiment: External factors (e.g., news, ETF flows, regulatory updates) may influence the move.
Trendline behavior: A break and close below the rising support line may invalidate the setup.
💬 Final Thoughts
This is a technically clean setup combining a bullish pattern breakout, supportive structure (trendline & SR zones), and a logical target based on classical charting. If Bitcoin maintains current momentum, traders may see significant upside in the coming weeks.