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BTCUSD trade ideas

BTC - Block Out The NoiseThere is a lot of talk going on surrounding all the markets and eveb BTC, of course. I saw a tweet come across my feed that had a user claiming an incoming crash of BTC and I couldn't help myself in laughing a bit for seeing through and identifying that he really had no idea wtf is going on. We are currently set to close the week above the consolidation box that BTC has produced and punched over. We are holding above the top of the box at about $104,450 for the third consecutive week. If we really were to crash or retest levels below, we'd first have to have a weekly candle close under $104,450 and then we could see cost basis, or the median, of the consolidation box retested at about $$99,000. Long story short, because we are holding above the top of the box, I think we'll be more likely to continue consolidating on a lower time frame and trying to continue breaking new highs. Most people have no idea what's going on and are just guessing. I am no different in that respect. I do use the potterbox strategy to help me sift through the noise and ultimately make sense of what price is doing relative to the structures it has created before. Per the PBS, we're okay and on a lower 24HR timeframe, we've actually done a great job in bouncing. For now, I don't see a meltdown coming. We simply retested a level and created empty space above us on a 24HR timeframe to, hopefully go back up. I'm hoping we see $120K this year and, maybe, with enough momentum we could really see a rally big enough to break this channel we are in.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HiiiPoWeR_TDE
BUY OPPORTUNITYInstrument: BTC/USD Entry: $ 105,218 Take Profit (TP): $ 106,910 Stop Loss (SL): $ 104,400 Technical Analysis: Price has broken a local resistance zone between 104,700 - 104,960. A successful retest of this zone turned previous resistance into support. Price is currently trading within a broadening wedge pattern. Placing the stop loss just below the wedge support (at 104,400) helps manage risk effectively. The Risk-Reward Ratio is approximately 1:2, The RSI on the 1-hour chart is at 63, indicating a valid and still intact short-term uptrend. Fundamental Outlook: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release and Powell’s speech are expected to increase market volume and volatility, potentially supporting the bullish momentum.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GODOCM
BTCUSD BUY IDEA-EASY CONFLUENCE PLAY??After reaching an all-time high (ATH) last week, Bitcoin is currently positioned at a pivotal $105,484 at the .23 level according to the Fibonacci trend. It has retraced to previous highs around $105,000 to $106,000. Recently, it bounced off the support level of approximately $102,740 on the 4-hour and daily charts and seems to be forming higher lows. I believe we could see a confluence play that aligns with the previous price action that led to the ATH.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BigRichh
Bitcoin Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 060125Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 105,270/61.80% Chart time frame:B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress:A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by fibonacci6180
Bitcoin the next store of ValueBitcoin as a store of value is not a new idea. I've been on this road a long time and my old posts are just timestamps of that. Currently price is sitting on the Dec/Jan highs. It appears that which was resistance before could become support now. The fact that the market reacts very fast to small market dips with fear seems like a good sign to me. Though only useful as an indicator in context. We did not break market structure and large buyers are still accumulating. Also retail interest stats like google search have not hit new all time highs. Though google specifically might be a bad metric as AI search is highly used now. There is still a risk of something breaking in US markets while rates stay up and Fed balance sheet is not growing. Though not clear what exactly would break. Kind of like stomping on an orange don't get caught up exactly where the peel breaks. QT is squeezing and you squeeze hard enough and pop. Even with them net buying 10 year US Treasury Bonds. It's still technically a QT environment. Last year bonds almost broke the banks before the Fed aloud those bonds to be listed full term value on the balance sheet. Effectively covering up the issue instead of fixing anything. (Bank Term Funding Program - BTFP) Pros Bitcoin has not yet rate seen US rate cuts Bitcoin has not yet see a new wave of money printing Fund managers suggesting 2% allocation which is no where close to being reached yet Recurring institutional buyers, such as corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets (e.g., Strategy). Cons Large leveraged holders will need to watch cash flows vs interest payments. In 2022 bear market this was easy for Micro Strategy now renamed Strategy. The reason profits were roughly 7x interest payments. In 2024 that has dropped to 5x. They started with a lot of cash flow and found themselves sitting on melting pile of cash. If Bitcoin holdings out grow the software income enough then finding the money for interest payments becomes a new challenge. It's still not 100% clear long term how Bitcoin fits in a portfolio. Most narrative seems like you keep it in a locked room where you celebrate your great fortune that has no material benefits in your life. I think it's probably not that. Is it just something people collect and lend against? Act as a index for the greater crypto asset class that people rebalance? Cash flow with cover calls? Lend it out if Fiat fails it could act like gold being borrowed. Important Questions: What % allocation to Bitcoin makes sense to hold in a bear market? How do you grow Bitcoin holdings in a bull market? "This is not financial advice. These are my personal opinions and observations. Do your own research before making any investment decisions."
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by JamesRennie
btcusd short update🧠 BTCUSD Short Setup Waiting for price to tap into the 🔥 H4 supply zone for a clean entry. Expecting rejection from the 105K area to ride it down toward 🎯 102,089, and my fav final target 🏁 101,890. Set up aligned with structure, SMC, and a dash of patience 🧘‍♀️💼 #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #SupplyZone #H4Chart #OrderBlock #FairValueGap #MarketStructure #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ShortSetup #SwingTrade #LiquiditySweep #SupplyAndDemand #RiskReward #BearishBias #TradingPlan #CryptoSetup #InstitutionalTrading #BreakOfStructure #FVG #BoS #CryptoBearish #TradeIdeas #VolumeImbalance #BearishScenario #SellOpportunity #ForexStyleInCrypto #TradingDiscipline #CryptoStrategy
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by mrunalkale580
Bitcoin analysis based on market liquidity and M2 money supply This trade enters Bitcoin in the $101,500–$102,200 zone, aiming to capture a high-probability bounce from a dense liquidity pocket formed by recent long liquidations. This region has historically acted as a bull market reaccumulation zone, typically holding after 5–8% drawdowns during major trend continuations. The trade is structured to ride a macro continuation leg toward $125,000, targeting the next major expansion phase driven by both short squeezes (clustered above $106K) and a broader surge in demand following increasing M2 money supply and institutional inflows. The stop-loss is placed at $97,000, a deliberate distance below local support but above the deeper liquidity sweep zone at $89K–$92K. That level is unlikely to be reached unless the market undergoes a full liquidation cascade, which would likely bypass $97K altogether in a fast move. This stop protects against structural failure while avoiding premature exits in normal volatility. The setup is designed for maximum reward with acceptable risk, offering a risk-reward ratio of over 4:1, and aligns with the thesis that Bitcoin is entering its final acceleration phase toward a new macro high.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by mattynewman
Bearish reversal?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 107,412.53 1st Support: 102,164.07 1st Resistance: 111,566.95 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Trade Analysis (BTC/USD Long Trade – 30m chart)!Trade Setup Summary Trade Type: Long (Buy) Entry Price: ~105,067 (current level) Stop Loss: ~104,581 (white horizontal support) Target Price: ~106,983 (green resistance) Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Excellent (approx. 1:3+) 🔍 Technical Highlights Ascending Triangle Breakout: The price was compressing in a triangle; it seems to have broken out just above the yellow resistance. Key Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance: 105,831 (red line – might be retested) Target resistance: 106,983 (green line – take-profit zone) Support Zone: 104,581 – solid level for stop-loss placement. 📌 Trade Confidence Signals 📊 Breakout from a mini ascending triangle. 📈 Volume is slightly increasing. 🟡 Previous resistance flipped into potential support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ProfittoPath
Unmasking the "Intrinsic Value" Debate Between Gold vs BTCFool's Gold? Unmasking the "Intrinsic Value" Debate Between Gold and Bitcoin The assertion is a familiar one, a well-worn cudgel in the ongoing debate between traditional assets and their digital counterparts: "Gold has intrinsic value that Bitcoin doesn't." This statement often serves as the bedrock for arguments championing the yellow metal's timeless appeal while dismissing cryptocurrency as mere speculative froth. But what if this foundational claim, this appeal to gold's inherent, undeniable worth, is built on shakier ground than its proponents believe? What if the very notion of "intrinsic value" as applied to these assets is a misunderstanding, a convenient narrative rather than an objective truth? This exploration will journey into the heart of this debate, dissecting the concept of intrinsic value and examining how it truly applies – or doesn't – to both gold and Bitcoin. We will scrutinize gold's much-vaunted industrial utility against the backdrop of its vast above-ground stocks and its overwhelming monetary premium. We will consider whether value is indeed an inherent property of an object or a subjective judgment made by individuals. Ultimately, by challenging long-held assumptions, we aim to illuminate the real sources of value for both the ancient metal and the modern digital asset, moving beyond simplistic labels to a more nuanced understanding. 1. The Elusive Nature of "Intrinsic Value" Before we can meaningfully discuss whether gold or Bitcoin possesses intrinsic value, we must grapple with the term itself. In the realm of corporate finance, "intrinsic value" refers to the fundamental worth of a company, derived from an analysis of its assets, earnings potential, cash flows, and overall financial health. It's an attempt to ascertain what a stock should be worth, independent of its fluctuating market price. This is the world of discounted cash flow models and balance sheet scrutiny. However, this definition struggles when applied to commodities or currencies. Gold, like Bitcoin, does not generate cash flows. It doesn't pay dividends or have earnings reports. As one observer noted, gold and Bitcoin are commodities that have a spot price; their "value" is essentially what someone is willing to pay for them at a given moment. Companies, by contrast, can have an intrinsic value tied to the future economic benefits they are expected to produce for their owners. So, when advocates claim gold has intrinsic value, they are often pointing to something else entirely. Usually, this encompasses its tangible, physical nature – you can hold it, feel its weight. It also refers to its historical use as money and a store of value over millennia. And crucially, it implies a baseline worth derived from its utility in practical applications, particularly in industry. One might even argue, as some have, that there is simply "no such thing as intrinsic value" in an absolute sense; value is not a property embedded within an object but is assigned to it by human beings. 2. Gold's Industrial Utility: A Gilded Facade? The argument that gold's industrial use underpins its intrinsic value is perhaps the most frequently cited. "But it's used in microchips!" is a common, almost reflexive, defense. And it's true: gold's excellent conductivity, resistance to corrosion, and malleability make it a valuable component in high-end electronics, dentistry, aerospace, and certain medical applications. But the critical question is not whether gold has industrial uses, but how much these uses contribute to its overall market price. Consider the data for a recent year, say 2024. Global industrial gold consumption was approximately 330 tonnes. However, a staggering 90% of this demand, around 297 tonnes, was met by recycling existing gold scrap, a process that can cost as little as tens of dollars per ounce. This leaves a mere 33 tonnes of new gold required from mining to satisfy the entirety of industrial needs not covered by recycling. Now, compare this to the annual mine production. In that same year, about 3,700 tonnes of gold were newly extracted from the earth. This means that less than 1% (33 tonnes out of 3,700 tonnes) of all newly mined gold was actually needed for industrial purposes. The vast majority, over 99%, went elsewhere – primarily into jewelry, bars, and coins, all forms of value storage. The disparity becomes even more dramatic when we consider the total above-ground stock of gold held for these value-storage purposes. This figure stands at roughly 184,000 tonnes. If, hypothetically, gold were to suddenly lose its allure as jewelry and its status as a monetary asset, and this colossal hoard were redirected to meet industrial needs (the 33 tonnes per year not covered by recycling), we would have enough gold to last for approximately 5,600 years at current industrial consumption rates. And this is without digging a single new ounce out of the ground. Much of this 184,000-tonne supply could potentially be acquired at prices far closer to the low cost of recycling than the current market price of newly mined gold. As one commenter aptly put it, if gold's value was solely based on industrial demand, it "would be nearly worthless" compared to its current valuation. While gold does possess certain unique properties that make it useful, these applications are a drop in the ocean when explaining its price. The idea that its utility in microchips or dental fillings provides a significant "floor" for its value is, upon closer inspection, largely a myth. 3. The Towering Monetary Premium: Where Gold's Value Truly Lies If industrial use accounts for such a tiny fraction of gold's demand and price, what explains the rest? The answer is its "monetary premium." This is the portion of an asset's price that exceeds its direct use-value as a commodity. For gold, this premium is immense, built over centuries of human history and cultural adoption. Gold's journey as money began thousands of years ago. Its inherent characteristics – it doesn't rust or tarnish (durability), it's relatively rare (scarcity), it's easily recognizable and has a pleasing aesthetic (acceptability), it can be melted and reformed (divisibility and fungibility), and it's dense (portability of value) – made it a superior choice for a medium of exchange and store of value in pre-industrial societies. This long history has ingrained gold into the collective human consciousness as something inherently valuable. There's a certain "magical power," as one person described it, to the shiny yellow metal, a testament to its enduring legacy. This historical precedent and the deep-seated belief in its enduring worth are what sustain gold's monetary premium. Central banks hold it in their reserves. Individuals purchase it in the form of jewelry (which, in many cultures, serves as a primary store of family wealth) and invest in bars and coins, not primarily for its practical applications, but because they trust it will preserve purchasing power or be desired by others in the future. This shared belief, this social consensus, is the bedrock of gold's value far more than its limited industrial applications. Some estimate this monetary premium to be as high as 90% of its total price, with the remaining 10% attributable to its use in jewelry and industry. 4. The Shifting Sands of Perceived Value The notion that value is intrinsic and immutable is challenged by history itself. Value, as many economists and observers contend, is not an inherent property of an object but is determined by human perception and utility, which can and do change over time. Consider aluminum. There was a time when aluminum was exceedingly rare and difficult to extract, making it more precious than gold. The capstone of the Washington Monument, completed in the late 19th century, was made of aluminum to signify its value and the technological prowess of the era. Today, thanks to advancements in refining processes, aluminum is abundant and inexpensive. We use it to wrap sandwiches, a far cry from its days as a "precious" metal adorning national monuments. Similarly, Tyrian purple dye, derived from sea snails, was once so costly and labor-intensive to produce that its use was reserved for royalty and the highest echelons of society. It symbolized power and status. The invention of synthetic dyes in the 19th century made purple accessible to everyone, and the immense value once attached to the natural version evaporated. These examples powerfully illustrate that what society deems valuable is not fixed. It is contingent on factors like scarcity (natural or artificial), the current state of technology, cultural significance, and collective human agreement. If gold's value is predominantly a monetary premium built on historical consensus and aesthetic appeal, then it too is subject to these shifting sands of human perception. The humorous desire to one day wrap sandwiches in gold foil, should it lose its monetary status, underscores this potential for radical revaluation. 5. Bitcoin's Utility: Solving Problems of the Digital Age If gold's claim to "intrinsic value" through industrial use is tenuous, and its primary value stems from a historically constructed monetary premium, how does Bitcoin compare? Critics often dismiss Bitcoin as having no utility beyond speculation, a digital tulip mania. However, this perspective often overlooks the specific problems Bitcoin was designed to address and the unique properties it offers in the 21st century. Bitcoin emerged in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis as a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system," aiming to provide an alternative to the traditional financial system. Its utility lies in its ability to offer: • Decentralization: No single entity, corporation, or government controls the Bitcoin network. It operates on a distributed ledger (the blockchain) maintained by thousands of computers worldwide. This makes it resistant to control or shutdown by any central authority. • Permissionless Access: Anyone with an internet connection can participate in the Bitcoin network – send, receive, and store value – without needing permission from a bank or government. • Censorship Resistance: Once transactions are confirmed and added to the blockchain, they are extremely difficult to alter or reverse. This makes it a powerful tool for individuals in environments where financial censorship is a concern. • Provable Scarcity: The Bitcoin protocol dictates that there will only ever be a maximum of 21 million bitcoins. This hard cap on supply is a fundamental aspect of its design, making it a verifiably scarce digital asset. This contrasts with gold, where new supply is continuously mined each year, estimated by some to be around 1.5-2% of the existing above-ground stock, arguably diluting its value over time. • Portability and Divisibility: Bitcoin is incredibly portable. Vast sums can be "carried" on a tiny device or even memorized as a seed phrase, and transferred across the globe in minutes for relatively low fees. It is also highly divisible, down to one hundred millionth of a bitcoin (a "satoshi"), facilitating transactions of various sizes. • Verifiability: The authenticity and transaction history of every bitcoin can be publicly verified on the blockchain, eliminating the need for trust in intermediaries for this purpose. • Durability: As a digital asset secured by a vast, decentralized network, Bitcoin is highly durable as long as the network itself remains operational and secure. A crucial real-world utility, highlighted by observers, is Bitcoin's ability to bypass capital controls. For individuals in countries with restrictive financial regimes, Bitcoin offers a means to transact and move value across borders with a degree of freedom not possible through traditional channels. This is not a speculative feature; it is a tangible benefit solving a real problem for many. While the number of people using Bitcoin worldwide is still relatively small compared to users of traditional financial systems, its adoption is growing. Like any transformative technology, its utility is being discovered and leveraged by an expanding user base. Its "intrinsic value," if we are to use that term, lies in its capacity to fulfill these unique functions. 6. Gold vs. Bitcoin: A Clash of Properties When we compare gold and Bitcoin based on properties often associated with a store of value or monetary good, distinct profiles emerge: • Tangibility: Gold is physical; you can touch it. This offers a psychological comfort that some find reassuring. Bitcoin is digital; its existence is as code and ledger entries. Its "possession" is through control of cryptographic private keys. • Industrial Utility: Gold has limited industrial uses that account for a tiny fraction of its price. Bitcoin's "industrial utility" is the operation of its network as a global system for value transfer and verification. • Scarcity: Gold is naturally scarce, but its total earthly and cosmic abundance is unknown, and new supply is constantly mined. Bitcoin has absolute, programmable scarcity with a fixed supply cap. • Portability: Moving large amounts of gold is cumbersome, expensive, and risky. Bitcoin is exceptionally portable. • Divisibility: Gold can be physically divided, but it's not a seamless process. Bitcoin is easily and precisely divisible. • Verifiability: Authenticating gold requires specialized knowledge and tools; it can be faked. Bitcoin transactions and holdings are verifiable with mathematical certainty on its public ledger. • Durability: Gold is physically very durable. Bitcoin, as a digital protocol, is durable as long as its decentralized network is maintained and secured. • Historical Precedent: Gold boasts millennia of use. Bitcoin is a little over a decade old, a mere infant by comparison. • Censorship/Seizure Resistance: Physical gold can be, and has been, confiscated. Self-custodied Bitcoin, with properly secured private keys, is highly resistant to censorship and seizure. This comparison reveals that while gold's strengths lie in its long history and physical presence, Bitcoin excels in areas like absolute scarcity, portability, divisibility, verifiability, and censorship resistance – attributes that are arguably increasingly valuable in an increasingly digital and interconnected global landscape. 7. The "Next Person" Fallacy and the Foundation of Value A common critique leveled at both gold (for its monetary premium) and Bitcoin is that their value depends solely on "the next person being willing to buy it." In a sense, this is true for any asset that isn't consumed directly or doesn't produce cash flows. The value of a collectible, a piece of art, or indeed a monetary good, is ultimately what someone else is prepared to exchange for it. However, this doesn't mean their value is arbitrary or baseless. The willingness of the "next person" to buy is predicated on a shared understanding or belief in the asset's desirable properties and its potential to retain or increase its value. For gold, this belief is built on thousands of years of tradition and its perceived enduring qualities. For Bitcoin, this belief is growing based on its unique technological attributes, its potential to solve modern financial problems, and its emerging network effects. The more people who recognize and utilize these properties, the stronger the shared belief, and thus the more robust its value becomes. 8. The Cost of Production and the Illusion of a Price Floor Some argue that gold's price cannot fall below its cost of extraction, suggesting this provides a natural price floor. While it's true that miners would cease operations if the price fell below their production costs for a sustained period, this argument largely ignores the colossal 184,000 tonnes of gold already above ground and held primarily for monetary or aesthetic purposes. If this massive hoard were to lose its monetary premium and be dumped onto the market, the price could plummet dramatically, far below current mining costs, until it reached a level where industrial demand (or perhaps a new, much lower equilibrium for aesthetic use) could absorb it. Much of this existing stock could be made available at recycling costs, which are significantly lower than mining costs. The "cost of production" floor applies primarily to newly added supply, not to the revaluation of existing, hoarded stock. Conclusion: Beyond Intrinsic – Value in Utility and Belief The debate over whether gold has "intrinsic value" that Bitcoin lacks often misses the mark by clinging to a nebulous and misapplied concept. If "intrinsic value" refers to a baseline worth derived from non-monetary, practical utility, then gold's claim is surprisingly weak. Its industrial applications are minimal compared to its price, which is overwhelmingly a monetary premium built on centuries of human belief, cultural acceptance, and its historical role as money. Value, ultimately, is not an inherent property magically residing within an object. It is a subjective judgment made by individuals, a reflection of an asset's perceived utility and the collective belief in its future desirability. Gold has served humanity well as a store of value due to a set of physical properties that were optimal for pre-digital eras. Bitcoin, a product of the digital age, offers a different set of properties – provable scarcity, decentralization, censorship resistance, and unparalleled portability – that address the challenges and opportunities of our modern world. Neither gold's sheen nor Bitcoin's bits possess a mystical "intrinsic value" independent of human perception and use. Gold's value is rooted in its long history and the enduring human affinity for its beauty and permanence. Bitcoin's burgeoning value is rooted in its innovative technology and its potential to offer a new paradigm for money and value transfer. Both are valuable because, and only because, people believe them to be. The critical difference lies in the reasons for that belief and the problems each asset is perceived to solve. As the world continues to evolve, so too will our understanding and assignment of value.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
$BTC 12-Week Lead Correlation w/ Global Liquidity, M2, GOLD, DXYHere’s a look at Bitcoin's price action against Global Liquidity, Global M2, GOLD and DXY - all with a 12-Week Lead. Notice GOLD has a bit more of a deviation from the BTC price than the others. This is because GOLD is used as a store of value asset, whereas the others are predicated on Central Banks expanding and contracting their money supply and balance sheets. The key here is to smooth out the signal and ignore the noise. Notice the convergence between these metrics the past couple months.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by jonnieking
Bitcoin: Bear Flag Formation Implies Weakness.Bitcoin has retraced as anticipated in my previous article (see Wave 5). So much for all the nonsense hype at the Bitcoin conference. Bitcoin has tested the 103K area and found some support but is developing a mini bear flag (see arrow). IF the 103,500K level is broken, that confirms the corrective structure is still in play and a test of 102 to 100K can still be the dominant scenario for the coming week (NFP this week). This means for swing traders on this time frame, it is likely too early for longs. The 102 to 100K area is still the major support that I anticipate. A long signal here can look like a pin bar on this time frame, or a double bottom formation on a 4h or 1h chart. It often pays to wait for these scenarios but there is always a risk of missing the move if price confirms a reversal pattern sooner. IF the current candle closes much higher (above 106K) then it will invalidate the bear flag. This means the bullish continuation would be in play. In my opinion this is a lower probability, but you have to be open to it. In the bullish scenario a test of 110 to 112 servers as a profit objective. While a breakout beyond 112 can happen, the more you expect, the more RISK you must be exposed to. A test of high is more probable than a new high. Along with that, I suspect current price action is more likely to consolidate rather than continue high over the short term because 5 waves are clearly in place. That usually means a corrective structure is likely to follow, and that is what we are currently in. The bullish candles are too early to buy into. If the bear flag plays out, there will be more attractive prices to wait for reversal formations. Otherwise, work smaller time frames, look for small bites going either way and keep the size small. This is not an easy environment.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4