BTCUSD trade ideas
Using Previous Day’s High and Low to Decide Intraday TrendIntroduction and Disclaimer
This article explains how to use the daily chart to understand and plan for short-term or intraday market direction.
To fully understand this, you should already know what directional bias means. If you’re not familiar with it, I highly recommend reading my previous article on the topic before continuing here.
Disclaimer
I'm not a financial advisor.
This article does not offer financial, investment, legal, or any kind of regulated advice.
It's made for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Trading involves risk. You can lose all your money—or even more—if you’re not careful.
You're reading the thoughts of a 22-year-old.
The goal of this article is to show you how to use the previous day’s high and low on a daily chart to:
Get a clear intraday bias (bullish or bearish).
Find entry signals for your trades.
Set clear invalidation points, meaning when a trade idea becomes invalid.
This is part of what’s called multi-timeframe analysis—looking at higher time frames to understand what might happen on lower ones.
Even if you trade short-term (like on 5 or 15-minute charts), it's still helpful to know what the bigger picture (like the daily chart) looks like. Why? Because it shows the main trend, important levels, and key zones that may not appear on lower time frames.
In my opinion, smart trading involves breaking down the price chart from top to bottom—starting with the big picture—then making decisions based on your trading strategy.
The ideas in this article work well for:
Intraday traders who want to capture moves during the day, and
Swing traders who want to catch bigger moves by entering early.
This concept can also be applied to higher time frames, such as the previous week’s high and low.
Daily BTC/USD Analysis - Smart Money PerspectivePrice recently swept liquidity above the previous weekly high, indicating a classic liquidity grab. After this move, we observed a market structure shift (MSS) to the downside, followed by a break and a mitigation of a bearish imbalance (BAG).
Currently, price is reacting from a small fair value gap (FVG), but this is likely just a retracement. I'm expecting the market to drop further and target the larger FVG zone that aligns on both the weekly and daily timeframes (highlighted in blue). This zone also aligns with a potential POI (point of interest) for smart money accumulation.
📌 Short-term bias: Bearish
🎯 Target: 99,000–97,000 zone
🔍 Watch for rejection at current FVG or possible internal liquidity grab before the drop.
Smart money is likely to seek deeper liquidity before any meaningful bullish continuation. Stay patient and let price come to the premium zone.
Final BTCUSD update..Good day traders, here is my final update on BTCUSD and I like how price has been respecting our PD arrays. Keep in mind traders price moving in waves and what again😂😂🏃🏾♂️, point is today is the last trading day for the week and my thoughts is that we can expect BTCUSD to start going higher today and tomorrow maybe till Tuesday …sorry I’m being too sure but if you focus on time and price you start to KNOW(ledge) things or maybe I should say secrets?!🤨🤔
I always expect price to manipulate higher if my bias is shorts, ICT’s power of 3 works wonders when it come to this thought process.
Watch how price reacts to the FVG where price is trading now, it’s not a signal just watch out price moves always from it for the rest of today.
We only going high to shoot lower…keep that in mind!!🤯
Bitcoin: eased on profit-takingAs expected, BTC eased a bit during the previous week. Two weeks ago, BTC celebrated its anniversary, so-called Pizza Day, with a fresh new all time highest level at $111,6K. After the strong push to the upside, it was expected that some profit taking would take place in which sense, the price of BTC will revert a bit. During Saturdays trading, BTC reached the lowest weekly level at $103,2K, but is ending the week above the $104K.
The RSI moved down from the strongly overbought market side, reaching the level of 50 as of the weekend. It is still not a clear indication that investors are eyeing the oversold market side, as long as RSI is moving above the 50 levels. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, confirming further the golden cross occurred two weeks ago.
BTC recently returned to the levels from the beginning of May, and might spend some time testing these levels in the week ahead. This could imply movements between the $102K and $104K. Charts are pointing that the next historical support line is at $102K level, which easily might be tested in the week ahead. However, there is also equal probability for the short term reversal in the week ahead, where BTC might again shortly test levels around the $106K. Return toward the $109K is also possible, based on charts, but with a lower level of probability.
It's not the time for Bitcoin...yet.
BTC rose by 6% during Bitcoin 2024 with the presence of Trump.
This year, it has disappointingly sunk by 4% during Bitcoin 2025.
I have come to the conclusion that BTC will make one final attempt to reach 108k and then failing to keep up with the momentum, plummet towards 93k.
Institutional participation has been spectacular this year as shown with all the huge amounts of purchases, but something crucial to a continuation of momentum has been lacking thus far: retail investors. Without their participation, it's impossible to reach to the moon.
So much BTC has been purchased in whopping amounts, but BTC has only appreciated 3k from the previous ATH of 108k. It needs to go lower first before the actual lift-off can become possible.
BTCUSD Weekly Structure Analysis – Bearish Trend + Target🔍 Overview:
Bitcoin has shown us a classic market structure shift, moving from bullish strength into a clear bearish retracement, all while respecting major zones and smart money concepts. This current price action highlights a Bearish Break of Structure (BOS), followed by a continuation move toward a key demand zone, which we are eyeing for the next potential reversal opportunity.
🧩 1. TRC Breakout & Early Bull Run
The chart shows a strong bullish phase starting from November 2024, which peaked in late May 2025.
The TRC (Trendline Resistance Channel) Breakout marked the shift from lower highs to higher highs.
This breakout was the initial sign of bullish strength, leading to a break of structure (BOS) around the $108,000–$110,000 level.
⚠️ 2. BOS Confirmed – Structure Starts to Crumble
Once price reached the reversal area near $112,000 (supply zone), we saw a failure to form new highs.
The Bearish BOS was confirmed when price failed to hold support and aggressively broke below the previous higher low.
This BOS is our first confirmation of trend exhaustion and a transition into bearish structure.
🧠 3. Structural Analysis & Smart Money Behavior
Notice how price moved sideways near the top before dropping — a typical distribution phase.
This is where smart money distributes positions to retail buyers at the top before the markdown.
After the BOS, each lower high confirmed the bearish market structure, with no strong bullish CHoCH in sight.
🧱 4. Major CHoCH & Interchange Zone
Look lower on the chart — the SR Interchange Zone around the $76,000–$78,000 area is significant.
This acted as resistance in early 2025, flipped into support later, and now stands as a potential Major CHoCH (Change of Character) if price revisits and reverses here.
If price respects this zone again, it could mark the next bullish accumulation phase.
🎯 5. Current Target: $83,000–$85,000 Zone
Based on structural behavior, liquidity voids, and past interaction, our short-term target is the $83,000–$85,000 demand zone.
This area is marked as “Target + Next Reversal” on the chart.
We expect either:
A reaction and reversal from this zone
Or a deeper push toward SR Interchange depending on volume and macro triggers
🧮 Key Technical Breakdown:
Component Observation
Trendline Break TRC Breakout in February
Bullish BOS Confirmed around $108,000
Reversal Area ~$112,000 (Supply/Distribution)
Structure Shift Bearish BOS confirmed
Current Target $83,000–$85,000
CHoCH Potential $76,000–$78,000
Bias Bearish short-term
🧠 Trading Wisdom:
“Structure tells the story — price action confirms it.”
Always analyze shifts in structure, not just candle patterns. BOS and CHoCH are some of the most reliable tools in understanding true market intent, especially when aligned with high-volume reversal areas.
✅ Final Thoughts:
Bitcoin is currently in a controlled retracement phase, and we are watching closely how price behaves near the $83K–$85K demand zone. If that fails, the deeper SR Interchange at ~$76K becomes the next high-probability zone for long entries.
This is a time to be patient, analyze clean structure, and ride with smart money, not against it.
BTCUSD - Bear Double Top ScenarioBitcoin is still above the ascending trend line in green however price is looking to form a next high reaching new ATH's
This could lead to resistance at the next top creating a double top, pushing price back down to the ascending trend line. From there if this strong trend line in green breaks it could turn very bearish below that line.
4Hr chart
Simple order block scalp
BTCUSD Trade Breakdown 🔍💰
Clean order block to order block move on BTCUSD. Took the entry on the retest of a key zone—low risk with a tight stop thanks to timing and volume conditions. ✅
Price needed to push through a bearish FVG, and now the trade is running risk-free. I'm holding for now and watching for more entries in line with the setup.
🎉 One of our members followed this trade on a £20 live learning account and is currently up 14%! Awesome to see the strategy working in real time for learners.
Gold setup is looking ready too 👀
📈 Like, comment, and share your thoughts or questions. Got any recommendations or similar setups? Drop them below! Appreciate you checking it out 🙌
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sellers are getting absorbedin this chart you can see the CVD decreasing while price is increasing.
we also made a tridant structure
although these are all bead lows, that i would like to be swept absorption is happening and money is flowing in.
so im prepared in case it wants to make a sweep on CME market open.
but its an obvious long
BTC SHORT TP:103,700 31-05-2025🚨 SHORT setup in play
Entry between 104,800 and 105,100, targeting 103,600–103,800 on the 1H chart.
Estimated duration: 6–10 horas ⏳
Esto es solo un rebote bajista en un contexto donde lo grande sigue siendo alza. Si no baja dentro del tiempo estimado, el setup queda invalidado.
We don’t use indicators, we’re not out here drawing lines or cute little shapes — I just give you a clean trade.
#BTC #PriceAction #Reydragon21
BTCUSD short settup 🧠 BTCUSD Short Setup BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Patiently waiting for price to tap the 🔥 H1 supply zone near 105K.
Looking for rejection to short it down to 🎯 102,089, and my fave 🏁 101,890.
Let’s see if BTC wants to take the express elevator down 📉🚪
Risk managed, plan loaded — now we wait 🧘♀️📊
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #SupplyZone #OrderBlock #FairValueGap #MarketStructure #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartSetup #ShortTrade #SwingTrade #CryptoSetup #H1Chart #BearishBias #LiquiditySweep #SupplyAndDemand #RiskReward #TradingPlan #BearishScenario #CryptoBearish #ForexStyleInCrypto #VolumeImbalance #FVG #BreakOfStructure #BoS #InstitutionalTrading #CryptoStrategy #TradingWithDiscipline
Bitcoin Market Analysis & 7-Day Forecast (May 31 – June 6, 20
As of May 31, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $104,749, reflecting a modest rebound from earlier lows of around $103,289. Despite recent volatility, several factors suggest that Bitcoin’s price may be poised for further recovery.
Technical Indicators Overview:
4-Hour RSI: 31.83 – Approaching oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term rebound.
1-Day RSI: 49.58 – Neutral zone, suggesting balanced momentum without clear overbought or oversold conditions.
Moving Averages: BTC is trading below its 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are at $105,000 and $107,000 respectively, indicating a bearish trend.
Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate support is found at $100,000, with strong resistance near the recent high of $111,970.
Market Sentiment and Fundamentals:
Institutional Adoption: Significant institutional interest is evident, with companies like MicroStrategy holding over 580,000 BTC as of May 25, 2025.
Regulatory Environment: The establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and favorable policies under the Trump administration have bolstered market confidence.
ETF Inflows: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded $5.95 billion in inflows during May 2025, adding 56,798 Bitcoins to its holdings, with assets under management hitting $12.5 billion.
7-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast:
May 31, 2025: $104,749 – Consolidation phase with neutral RSI suggesting limited volatility.
June 1, 2025: $105,500 – Anticipated slight uptick as market stabilizes.
June 2, 2025: $106,200 – Gradual increase driven by positive market sentiment.
June 3, 2025: $107,000 – Testing resistance levels; watch for potential breakout.
June 4, 2025: $108,500 – Possible retest of recent highs; monitor RSI for overbought signals.
June 5, 2025: $110,000 – If momentum continues, new highs could be achieved.
June 6, 2025: $111,500 – Sustained bullish trend contingent on market conditions and volume.
Conclusion:
The current technical indicators and market fundamentals suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in the coming week. While the RSI levels indicate room for growth, it's essential to monitor for signs of overbought conditions as prices approach previous highs. Investors should stay informed on regulatory developments and institutional activities that could influence market dynamics.
Note: This forecast is based on current market data and technical analysis. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and prices can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research and consider risk management strategies before making investment decisions.
BITCOIN STILL BULLISH ABOVE 97K$HELLO TRADERS
As i can see Bitcion is just created a new ATH 112K$ and now is retracing to downside after a overbought condtions on RSI i am expected a new ATH till design levels if BTC Hold above 97K zone its just a trade idea share your thoughts with us in comments it help many other traders we love ur comments and support Stay Tuned for more updates
I WILL RISK BIG FOR THIS BITCOIN BULLISH IDEAWhy this long setup “makes sense”
Retest of a Confluence Zone:
Price Structure: Earlier in the day, BTC was trading below 104,566, then broke higher, printed a small rally up to ~104,900. After that rally, it pulled back down to retest 104,566.
Volume Profile Support (VAL): The short-session Value Area Low (≈104,550–104,600) lines up almost exactly with that horizontal support. When price dips into a VAL and sees buying volume pick up, it frequently “re-rejects” downward and rallies toward the VAH/POC again.
Point of Control (POC) as Magnet:
Notice how the mini-profile’s POC sits around 104,650–104,700. If price is able to hold just above VAL and above 104,566, it often needs to re-test that POC (near 104,650–104,700) before building momentum toward higher value areas (105,000+).
Risk Management:
The stop at ~104,433 is placed just under the previous swing low and under the VAL. Should price break below that, it’s likely invalidating the bullish absorption you want to see here.
Conversely, targeting 105,627 (the next confluence of highs, mini-profile VAH, and the flat top of that small volume profile box) gives you a clean reward, because that level acted as short-term resistance earlier in the afternoon.
15-Minute Candlestick Reaction:
Right at this moment you see a wick dipping into VAL/104,550, followed by a small bullish pin that closes off the low. That’s a sign buyers are absorbing. Once you get a full 15-minute candle close back above 104,566 (preferably with a little body rather than just a wick), that’s your trigger to pull the buy trigger.
3. Step-by-step execution plan
Wait for Confirmation Candle:
Let the current 15-minute candle close (around 9:30 PM on the chart). If it closes entirely above 104,566 (preferably with a bullish body), that validates support/VAL is holding.
Enter Long (Buy) at Market or on a Small Limit Order:
You can place a limit order at 104,566 exactly, or simply buy at market when you see the close. Either way, entry is once the bounce is confirmed.
Set Stop‐Loss:
Hard stop at 104,433 (≈130 pips below entry). This is below the mini‐profile VAL and the very recent swing low on the 15-minute chart.
Technically, any drop below 104,550 would already bug out the mini-profile support, so going a few ticks lower (to 104,433) gives a bit of breathing room without risking too much.
Set Take‐Profit:
Mark your TP at 105,627 (≈1,000 pips above entry). In practice, that level has already shown minor rejection earlier today and lines up with the upper boundary of that small volume‐profile box.
If price can clear 105,627 convincingly, you could even consider a trailing-stop strategy beyond that, but for now, treat 105,627 as your primary R:R target.
Track Price Behavior:
As soon as price moves +50 pips in your favor (≈104,800), consider moving stop to breakeven (104,566). That way you can eliminate risk on the remaining position and let the rest run to 105,627.
If price slices through the POC (~104,650–104,700) with conviction, that often signals enough short‐covering/bull momentum to push toward 105,000+.
4. If the trade goes south…
Invalidation:
Should price break below 104,550 (the VAL) and then keep selling into 104,400–104,350, your stop at 104,433 will get hit. At that point, the little “volume magnet” has failed and sellers are in control.
What to Watch Next:
If your stop is taken out, watch how price behaves around 104,300–104,200 (the next obvious swing low from earlier in the session). That could become the next short idea if bearish volume continues, but only after you’ve cut your losses here.
5. Why the Risk:Reward (≈1:4) is attractive
Risk (~130 pips):
One 15-minute candle’s worth of volatility around this mini-profile level is roughly 50–60 pips, plus some buffer. By placing your stop a bit lower (≈130 pips), you give the trade room to breathe under VAL.
Reward (~1,060 pips):
Getting back up toward the mini-profile’s VAH/POC cluster near 105,600–105,700 is a higher‐probability area for profit, since that zone acted as recent resistance. A ~1,000-pips upside vs ~130 pips downside gives an ~8:1 gross R:R before fees or slippage. Even if actual profit is slightly less, your risk is small relative to potential reward.
6. Key takeaways
Volume Profile + Value Area can help you spot where “big players” have put most of their orders. VAL often acts as short‐term support.
Confluence Zone: The overlap of “horizontal support” (104,566) and the mini-profile VAL (≈104,550–104,600) is what makes this a high‐probability long zone.
Discipline on Stops: Placing your stop below the VAL (104,433) ensures you’re out quickly if that support fails.
Aggressive R:R: Shooting for ~105,627 offers a large reward if price truly wants to re-test the upper volume/value levels.
Confirmation Is Critical: Never enter exactly when price first touches VAL—wait for a full 15-minute candle close back above the support line.
Next Steps
If you are demo-trading this setup: Practice waiting for the candle close, measure your exact pip risk, and note how price reacts when it revisits the POC (around 104,650–104,700).
If you go live: Size your position so that a 130-pip stop risk equals 1–2% of your account. For example, if 1 BTC = $104,000, each pip is $0.10 (on a 0.01 BTC position), so 130 pips = $13 risk. Make sure $13 is ≤ 1% of your trading capital.
That’s the essence of this 15-minute BTCUSD volume-profile long setup. You have a clear entry (≈104,566), a logical stop (≈104,433), and a well-defined profit target (≈105,627). Keep an eye on how price interacts with the mini‐profile Value Area Low and Point of Control—if buyers step up here, you’ll likely see a swift move back toward the 105,600 zone.
Good luck trading! 🚀
Monthly Bearish Divergences Showing Up On a 5 Wave Impulse Move
Just like the 5 wave impulse for 2021's top, we have now entered into a 5th wave on the monthly chart. The issue is that we also have a monthly bearish divergence present on the chart. 2021 also had a monthly bearish divergence present. The first one that we saw was in January. We got a 30% correction off of that one. Now we have another monthly bearish divergence present on May's close today with a large selling wick.
This is not what you want to see. Of course, the market could just continue going up anyway, but these setups appearing on the monthly chart take a long time to happen. Even if we do go up a little bit more, it would be unwise to ignore this setup appearing on the chart. I am not recommending everyone take short positions, but I am currently short targeting first the 51-54k(wherever weekly 200 SMA will be when heading down) area with a likely retracement into the 80k area after that. Then heading towards a bear market low in 2026. I think we will see the 30k area, but that target is a bit less important than the current setup signaling down on the charts.
My short is on 2x leverage with 10% of my total capital even in the trade at a 98,446 average entry. I was an early bear so my entry reflects that. It won't matter at all if the 54k target hits. If we do go up from here, I will average the position once more after which it either liquidates or hits the 54k target. If we do begin playing down aggressively over the next few months, I will begin adding into the short on the way down. This is how you obtain a very favorable RR by being position sized small in a trade that is in drawdown, and then getting more aggressive with size as the position is winning with price 10-20k+ in your favor. At which point you can also set a stop loss at breakeven. Time in the market beats timing the market works in both directions.
Let's go over advanced position management techniques as we don't tend to see that discussed here very often. Most people simply have a stop loss and take profit as their primary risk management strategy. A 2x leveraged trade with scaled entries( 1%, double to 2%, double to 4%, and double to 8%) with liquidation as the stop loss really allows you to take advantage of time in the market as well as the market moving against you being an even better opportunity than you started with. You are controlling your maximum risk with the total capital ever allowed in the trade on isolated margin. You must decide what that % is before ever taking a position in the market. Treat every trade as if the entire position can go to 0. Black swans can blow past stop losses.
The larger your account perhaps you may want to use no leverage and even less capital %. Pretty much anyone trading above 200-300k would fall into that camp. Anyone trading above $1 million probably wants to scale in at 0.75%, 1.5% and then 3% max capital in the trade. Remember you can always add capital into a winning position, but you cannot take capital out of a losing trade without realizing the loss. A stop loss is not necessary if you position size to lose 100%. A great average monthly return target is 10%. Some months will make nothing, some will be in drawdown or a loss, and some will be very large gains if you add to winning positions. Some years will be much better than others as well. Of course buying bear market lows sets one up to have really good years in peak bull run years.
You just want to average 10% per month(3-5% per month for anyone already above $1 million) over the course of decades(Yes I know liquidity becomes an issue at some point it will be obvious to anyone when they have reached that level). It doesn't matter what every single month is individually. Simply reinvesting 20-30% over the course of 10 years, 20 years, and even 30 years is amazing compounded gains. This trading career is a marathon and not a sprint. Don't think how can I get rich off of one trade and change my life today. Think how can I make a consistent % return in the market that compounds to generational wealth over the course of my entire lifetime that changes the lives of all those who come after me.