The Uptrend Bulls Expect has Failed: They've not noticed it yet.I'll split this post into a couple sections, general theory and then the actual TA that supports the FACT that the uptrends have failed - as per the expected path of typical breakouts.
All We See or Seem is Just a Dream Within a Dream
The Myth of Crypto Cycles
Crypto bulls cling to the idea of cycles like a religion. They believe that no matter what happens—regulation, macroeconomic shifts, market maturity—Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will continue to follow an inevitable four-year cycle, bringing new all-time highs like clockwork. To them, the past is prophecy, and history repeats itself in a perfect rhythm. But what if all of this is just an illusion? What if the so-called cycles are merely coincidences, statistical artifacts of a young, speculative market rather than fundamental laws of financial physics?
Markets are not mechanical. They do not operate on fixed timetables dictated by past performance. Traditional finance has spent centuries trying to uncover cycles, and while patterns do emerge, they are fragile. They are shaped by human behavior, macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and regulation—all of which evolve. Yet, crypto bulls insist that the simple halving-based narrative is immune to all these external forces, that Bitcoin's supply schedule alone dictates its destiny. This is an astonishingly naive belief.
The illusion of predictability is one of the most seductive traps in markets. People see patterns where none exist. The human brain is wired for pattern recognition, and when an asset like Bitcoin goes through multiple boom-and-bust cycles that seem to align with block reward halvings, it's easy to mistake correlation for causation. But every cycle has been driven by different factors: early retail speculation, ICO mania, institutional adoption, unprecedented money printing. None of these will repeat in exactly the same way.
The Dangerous Complacency of Cycle Dogma
Worse still, the cycle dogma breeds dangerous complacency. It convinces participants that they don't need to analyze fundamentals, macroeconomics, or risk. It fosters an echo chamber where dissenting opinions are dismissed as FUD, and anyone who questions the cycle is ridiculed. Yet, all bubbles share one trait: overconfidence. The moment something becomes "obvious" in markets is often the moment it stops working.
What if Bitcoin is simply a speculative asset that benefited from a perfect storm of conditions? What if the previous cycles were the product of unique liquidity injections rather than an immutable pattern? What happens if the next bear market doesn't end in two years, but instead lingers for a decade or more, as seen in other speculative booms throughout history?
Crypto bulls are trapped in a dream, believing that cycles are laws rather than fleeting illusions. But the market does not care about dreams. Reality eventually asserts itself, and when it does, those who failed to question the narrative will find themselves waking up to a nightmare.
The Willful Blindness to Cycle Failures
Crypto bulls treat historical cycles as gospel, but when reality starts to diverge from their expectations, they find ways to dismiss or rationalize it. The belief in a simple, repeatable four-year halving cycle is so ingrained that even when the data contradicts it, they remain convinced that "this time is no different." But cracks are already forming in the cycle narrative, and those who ignore them do so at their own peril.
The Growing Deviations from the Cycle
If Bitcoin's price truly followed a strict four-year halving cycle, we would expect the timing of peaks and troughs to align predictably. Yet, recent market behavior has deviated significantly from past trends.
Timing Delays and Weaker Peaks – Previous cycles saw Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs within 12-18 months of the halving. However, the most recent cycle has shown weaker momentum and prolonged consolidation. The expected "blow-off top" has yet to materialize, and implied forecasts based on previous cycles have already been missed.
Diminishing Returns – Each bull cycle has produced a lower percentage gain than the last. The 2013 cycle saw a roughly 50x return, 2017 brought a 20x return, and 2021 struggled to even 10x from its prior lows. This diminishing return pattern contradicts the idea that future cycles will be as explosive as the past.
Extended Corrections and Macro Influence – Previous bear markets followed a sharp collapse followed by a predictable recovery, but the current cycle is increasingly intertwined with macroeconomic factors like interest rates, liquidity conditions, and institutional risk appetite.
The Stronger Link Between Crypto and Risk-On Assets
Crypto bulls want to believe Bitcoin is a revolutionary, independent asset class immune to traditional financial cycles. Yet, empirical data shows that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a high-beta tech stock, tightly correlated with broader market risk sentiment.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Correlation – Bitcoin's correlation with major equity indices has reached record highs in recent years. During major risk-off events—such as Federal Reserve tightening cycles—Bitcoin has followed equities downward, contradicting the claim that it's an uncorrelated store of value.
VIX and Crypto Volatility – Traditionally, Bitcoin was seen as a hedge against uncertainty, yet its correlation with the VIX (volatility index) suggests it is actually a risk-on asset. When volatility spikes, Bitcoin dumps alongside other speculative assets.
Liquidity Dependency – Every major crypto bull market has coincided with periods of excess global liquidity—whether it was loose monetary policy post-2008, the 2017 ICO boom, or the 2020-2021 stimulus-driven rally. As liquidity dries up, Bitcoin and altcoins suffer. The idea that crypto will boom on a predetermined schedule without liquidity support is a fantasy.
Ignoring the Red Flags
Despite mounting evidence that the cycle narrative is failing, crypto bulls remain steadfast in their belief. They dismiss deviations as temporary, blame external factors, or move the goalposts entirely. Some common coping mechanisms include:
"The cycle is just delayed" – Rather than admitting the pattern may be breaking, bulls claim that price action is simply lagging and will soon "catch up."
"Institutions are suppressing the market" – When the expected parabolic rally doesn't arrive, some turn to conspiracy theories, insisting that institutional players are manipulating prices.
"Bitcoin is still early" – This argument suggests that cycles will remain intact indefinitely because adoption is ongoing, ignoring how asset classes mature and become less volatile over time.
The Dream is Fading
The belief in crypto cycles is rooted in historical data, but history is not destiny. The cracks in the cycle narrative are growing larger, and those who refuse to acknowledge them risk being caught in a painful awakening. The correlation with risk-on assets, diminishing returns, and macroeconomic headwinds all point to a market that is maturing—and one where blind faith in the past could be a costly mistake.
Bulls may continue to dream of predictable cycles, but markets do not move on dreams. They move on liquidity, macro conditions, and shifting investor sentiment. And right now, the cycle dogma is facing its greatest test yet.
The Illusion of Omniscience: A Classic Bubble Symptom
One of the most reliable signs of a speculative bubble is the widespread belief that everyone understands exactly how things will play out. Crypto bulls are no exception—they treat their cycle models, price targets, and narratives as if they are indisputable truths. But history has shown that when the majority of market participants believe they have it all figured out, they are usually the ones about to be proven wrong.
Overconfidence and the Death of Skepticism
Bubbles are fueled by collective overconfidence. The deeper people are entrenched in a market narrative, the less willing they are to entertain opposing viewpoints.
- **Every dip is a buying opportunity** – Bulls assume every pullback is a setup for new highs.
- **“Smart money” is accumulating** – When prices drop, the default explanation is that institutions are “loading up.”
- **Dismissing fundamental shifts** – Major changes in macro conditions, regulatory risk, or liquidity constraints are ignored or brushed aside.
This type of thinking leads to an echo chamber where no amount of contradictory evidence can change the prevailing belief. Markets reward skepticism, but bubbles punish those who dare to question the narrative—until reality forces a reckoning.
The Fallacy of Predictable Certainty
When everyone assumes they know the future, they stop considering alternative scenarios. Crypto bulls assume:
- **Price targets are inevitable** – Rather than acknowledging risk, many treat certain price levels as a matter of “when,” not “if.”
- **Cycles are set in stone** – The assumption that Bitcoin will continue to follow a clean four-year cycle disregards the role of external factors.
- **There is no exit plan** – Most bulls do not prepare for the possibility that the cycle framework might be invalidated.
These beliefs are symptoms of a market where participants are detached from risk. Once the consensus view reaches a peak of confidence, the probability of the opposite occurring increases dramatically.
The Danger of Crowded Thinking
When too many people are on the same side of a trade, the market tends to move against them. We have seen this in past bubbles:
- **Dot-com boom (2000)** – Internet stocks were viewed as a one-way bet, right before the crash.
- **Housing bubble (2008)** – Everyone believed home prices could never fall, until they did.
- **Crypto 2017/2021** – The “supercycle” narrative dominated, only to be proven false.
Each time, the crowd was convinced they had discovered a new paradigm, only to learn the hard way that market cycles are far more complex than they assumed.
Conclusion: The Limits of Certainty
The moment everyone believes they have the market figured out is the moment risk is highest. The crypto space is filled with certainty—certainty that cycles will repeat, certainty that Bitcoin will hit six figures, certainty that institutions will drive perpetual demand.
But markets do not reward certainty. They reward those who adapt.
And right now, crypto bulls are marching forward as if they already know how the story ends. That is exactly why they are at risk of being blindsided.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
After every historic BTC dump it followed the conventions of a technical bullish breakout. Breaking the 1.61 fib and rally to at least the 2.20. Which is a healthy sign for a trend.
This worked on every single major BTC breakout ... expect this one.
Now ... it is actually viable we trade 1.61 - 1.27 and then uptrend. This is one of the possible patterns, but the forecast of the classic BTC breakout has failed. Everyone who made it was wrong. They made it based on good observations of the past and then something changed. At this point, so should their opinion have changed.
This may or may not be a 1.27 hold, but if the 1.27 fails we have a technical failure of the uptrend and a complete failure of the popularly forecast breakout.
The alts ... all those things people boldly forecast (on scant data) - they failed.
And they failed in a SUPER OBVIOUS way, technically.
During the formation of an up or down move we'll form pending harmonics. These are a default staple of the market and we've seen these in markets for a 100 yrs. When these form, major trend decisions are to be made.
IN AN UPTREND - THE HARMONICS BREAK.
They fail. And price goes parabolic. That's what happens. There's staggering evidence to back this. If they do not fail ... that's a bad sign for the uptrend. Commonly when harmonics do not break - we've seen the blow off in an uptrend.
Here's a post with the alts harmonics.
Go check these charts ...and see how it worked out.
Everything the bulls said the cycle would be, it's not been.
But they just revise it to tell you how they'll be right later.
Everyone becomes an expert at following the trend in the last leg of the trend.
