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BTCUSD trade ideas

When Will See the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Range Break?Chart Analysis: Bitcoin remains trapped in a broad consolidation range between $91,000 support and $109,000 resistance as price action struggles for direction. 1️⃣ Range-Bound Price Action: Bitcoin continues to respect the $91,000 - $109,000 range, with multiple failed breakout attempts. Recent price action suggests indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking control. 2️⃣ Key Support & Resistance Levels: Support: $91,000, a critical zone where buyers have stepped in repeatedly. Resistance: $109,000, where sellers continue to cap upside moves. 3️⃣ Moving Averages Provide Mixed Signals: 50-day SMA (blue): $99,025, acting as a dynamic pivot point. 200-day SMA (red): $78,230, showing a long-term bullish structure. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators Reflect Neutral Bias: RSI: 48.67, showing lack of momentum in either direction. MACD: Weakening, reflecting the ongoing range-bound environment. What to Watch: A break above $109,000 could trigger a bullish continuation towards new highs. A break below $91,000 would put $78,000 as the next key support level. Until a breakout occurs, range-trading strategies remain in play, with traders watching for reversals at support and resistance. Bitcoin remains directionless within its range, with traders waiting for a decisive breakout to determine the next major move. -MW
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by FOREXcom
1
Bitcoin’s Incoming Bear Market!🚀 Bitcoin’s Bullish Phase: The Final Push Before the Fall? Bitcoin is currently in the parabolic uptrend phase of its halving cycle, with price action closely following historical patterns. Since the last halving on April 15, 2024, Bitcoin has mined approximately 42,480 blocks, pushing the market closer to the 70,000-block threshold where the trend historically reverses into a deep bear market. Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s next major bull market peak is expected around 150,000 USD, approximately 70,000 blocks post-halving (projected for August 2025). However, investors must prepare for what follows—a severe bear market fuelled by miner capitulation. 🔥The 70,000-Block Bearish Reversal: Why It Happens Every Cycle 1. The Mining Difficulty Trap & Rising Costs Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) to maintain the 10-minute block interval. As BTC price surges in the bull market, more miners join the network, driving competition and difficulty higher. This raises mining costs and squeezes profit margins, making it harder for smaller miners to stay afloat. ✅ Bull Market (~0-70,000 Blocks Post-Halving) High BTC prices offset increased difficulty, allowing miners to hold rather than sell. Low sell pressure from miners keeps Bitcoin in an uptrend. ❌ Bear Market (~70,000 Blocks Post-Halving) After BTC peaks, prices decline but difficulty remains high. Mining costs remain constant, while block rewards drop. Weaker miners can’t afford to mine at a loss and are forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover operational expenses. 2. The Snowball Effect: How Miner Capitulation Triggers a Crash Once inefficient miners begin selling, a chain reaction unfolds: 1️⃣ Bitcoin price starts declining after the cycle peak (~12-18 months post-halving). 2️⃣ Miners struggle to remain profitable due to high difficulty and lower block rewards. 3️⃣ Miners begin offloading BTC to cover expenses, increasing supply in the market. 4️⃣ More BTC supply leads to further price drops, triggering panic selling. 5️⃣ Additional miners shut down operations, selling off reserves, further flooding the market. 6️⃣ Capitulation accelerates, causing a cascading effect similar to leveraged liquidations seen in past bear markets. 🔄 This cycle repeats until enough miners exit, difficulty adjusts downward, and BTC stabilizes. 3. Historical Proof: How Miner Capitulation Has Marked Every Bear Market Each Bitcoin bear market aligns with major miner capitulation events. Here’s how past cycles have played out: 📌 2012 Halving: Bull top in late 2013, miner capitulation in 2014, BTC fell -80%. 📌 2016 Halving: Bull top in late 2017, miner capitulation in 2018, BTC fell -84%. 📌 2020 Halving: Bull top in late 2021, miner capitulation in 2022, BTC fell -78%. 📌 2024 Halving: Expected bull top in late 2025, miner capitulation likely in 2026?, BTC decline TBD but estimated to be around -60%. 🔹 In all cases, BTC topped ~70,000 blocks after the halving, followed by a deep drawdown driven by miner capitulation. 🔹 The selling pressure from miners perfectly aligns with the start of major market crashes. 4. The Accumulation Phase: What Follows the Crash? After miners capitulate and difficulty adjusts downward, Bitcoin enters a sideways accumulation phase (~140,000-210,000 blocks post-halving). Weaker miners have already exited, reducing sell pressure. Surviving miners adjust to lower rewards and stop mass selling BTC. Smart money (whales & institutions) begin accumulating at undervalued prices. The MVRV ratio drops below 1, signalling a market bottom. Bitcoin stabilizes, setting the stage for the next bull cycle. This predictable recovery cycle lays the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next exponential rally into the next halving period. The Bitcoin Bear Market Prediction for 2025-2026 ✅ Bitcoin is currently on track to peak near ~$150,000 around 70,000 blocks post-halving (August 2025). ✅ Following this, BTC is expected to enter its bear market, with prices potentially falling to ~$60,000 (by December 2026). ✅ The primary catalyst for this crash will be miner capitulation, just as it has been in every prior cycle. Final Thoughts If history repeats, the Bitcoin market is set to follow a sharp parabolic rise to ~$150,000 before undergoing a 70,000-block miner-driven selloff into a multi-month bear market. Investors should be aware of this pattern and plan accordingly. Sources & Data Validation The insights presented in this article are based on historical Bitcoin price cycles, on-chain analytics, and mining difficulty trends from various sources, including: Blockchain Data (Glassnode, CoinMetrics) Historical BTC Halving Data (Bitcoin Whitepaper, Blockchain Explorers) Market Analysis Reports (Messari, Arcane Research) Macroeconomic Influences (Federal Reserve Reports, Global Liquidity Cycles) Disclaimer: Not an Investment Recommendation This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Theperfectionist
10
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Resistance at 105K – Pullback Incoming? Key Observations: 1. Resistance at 105,200 - 105,400: The price has reached a resistance zone near 105,200 - 105,400 (marked by a red arrow). Previous price action suggests rejection at similar levels. 2. Potential Bearish Move: A blue arrow indicates a possible pullback. The price could form a lower high and drop toward support. 3. Support Levels: 104,400 is the first key support level. If it breaks, Bitcoin may decline further toward 104,000 or lower. Conclusion: Bearish Scenario: If Bitcoin fails to break above 105,400, a pullback toward 104,400 or lower is likely. Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 105,400 could push Bitcoin higher
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by FOREX_QUEEN_10
Bitcoin’s Path to $70K: Unfilled Orders in Play?Bitcoin is showing strong potential to reach $70K, driven by unfilled orders in the market. Based on my analysis, there are liquidity gaps that the price is likely to fill, creating a natural magnet for upward movement. If Bitcoin maintains its momentum and volume confirms this thesis, we could see a push toward this key level. I'll be watching price action closely for confirmation. What do you think? Will BTC reclaim $70K soon? Let’s discuss in the comments! 🔥🚀
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by GusIn
1
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Breakdown: Bearish Trend Continues After UptreThis is a Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1-hour chart Key Observations: 1. Uptrend Channel (Green Lines - Past Trend) Bitcoin was in an upward channel for several days, moving within parallel trendlines. The price was making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. 2. Breakdown of the Uptrend The price broke below the lower boundary of the green channel, signaling a bearish reversal. This suggests a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. 3. Downtrend Confirmation (Red Arrow & Trendline) A steep downward trendline (red) has been drawn, showing continuous lower highs and lower lows. The red arrow suggests further bearish movement, possibly targeting lower price levels. 4. Economic Events (U.S. Flag Icons) The U.S. flag icons indicate upcoming economic events that could impact Bitcoin’s price. These events might be related to economic data releases (such as interest rates, employment reports, or CPI data), influencing market sentiment. 5. Current Price Action Bitcoin is trading at $99,648, down 0.98% at the time of the chart. The price is struggling to hold above $98,000, with a possibility of further declines if selling pressure continues. Conclusion: The bearish trend is dominant after breaking the previous uptr
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FOREX_QUEEN_10
5
BTC 3-day .. Long Term Run Chart with GoalLong term BTC is still in a overall Bullish trend. PA gets to a point where absorption of higher prices becomes exhausted, and a waiting period then begins before the next upward pulses. Channel Lines, Wedge Lines, Graphics and anything else on any chart are just temporary Historic lines and will become broke at some point in time. We see the Goal of "143k - 175K". When this will happen....Nobody knows~~~however I guessed about May -Sept of this year 2024, when PA should start to make the long drawn out upwards ascend. Heck it could start to happen in March?? However today's World Politics could send PA down for a while, through the summer-fall 2024. I would rather see a long drawn-out trading range of "89K - 109K", while the current Politics settle down. Who knows what ""Trump (Dump or Pump)"" world event is going to happen in the future. We might see 70k prices again. Looking at PA bump it's head against the Top Channel line several times, I feel that to obtain those prices most everyone is expecting, PA "will need to" eventually break-out of the upper blue channeling line. I placed some Time Frame PA action bracketing graphics in order to somewhat "Guess When" this breakout and new higher high PA might happen. Use SL's and watch-out for the downside (Trump-Tariffs). Good Luck !!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Quartz-
Stay patient! US Job openings just came in 5% lower than expected! What does this mean? It will show the FED that high interest rates are detrimental to the US economy. On top of the pressure from China and Deepseek, the tariff news and the fear of a global trade war. This will push the FED to review policy, and if we see a continued trend of less-than-expected jobs, we could transition from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, which will be extremely bullish on the market! You just need to be patient and focus on holding CRYPTOCAP:BTC and winning projects such as $SNAI! If you are reading this, you are still early in the 2025 bull run!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoJayTrades
1
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Analysis. Bull Market Top1️⃣ Key Market Structure - Elliott Wave Analysis 📉 Elliott Wave Progression: BTC is in Wave 5️⃣, which historically marks the last bullish impulse before a potential correction. Wave 3️⃣ was strong, confirming the trend continuation. Now BTC is approaching the potential Bull Market Top 🚀. 🟢 Current Market Position: BTC is forming Wave 5, targeting $117K - $139K as per Fibonacci extensions. The final Wave 5 completion zone is projected within this range. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement & Extension Levels 📊 Fibonacci Levels to Watch: 📍 0.236 Retracement: $93,845.34 ✅ (Minor pullback support) 📍 0.382 Retracement: $85,842.61 ✅ (Stronger correction zone) 📍 0.5 Retracement: $79,876.11 ⚠️ (Critical mid-level support) 🎯 0.382 Extension: $117,331.51 (Potential first target resistance) 🎯 0.618 Extension: $139,205.03 (Bull Market Top Projection) 📌 BTC Weekly High: $109,358.01 📈 BTC Current Price: ~$99,449.97 3️⃣ Technical Indicators - Confirmation Signals 📊 MACD (Momentum Indicator) ✅ MACD Histogram is still positive ➝ Confirming bullish momentum. ⚠️ Flattening MACD lines ➝ Indicates momentum might be slowing. 📊 RSI (Relative Strength Index): 🔼 RSI is near overbought zone (~69-70) ⚠️ Possible local top - BTC might need a correction before further upside 4️⃣ Key Support & Resistance Zones 🛑 Major Support Levels: 🟢 $93,800 (0.236 Fib - Short-term pullback zone) 🟢 $85,800 (0.382 Fib - Stronger correction zone) 🟢 $79,800 (0.5 Fib - Must hold support for long-term bullish trend) 🎯 Resistance Levels - Price Targets: 🔴 $109,000 (Current High - Short-term resistance) 🔴 $117,000 (First Major Resistance - 0.382 Fib Extension) 🚀 $131,000 - $139,000 (Bull Market Top Zone - 0.618 Fib Extension) 5️⃣ Trading Strategy & Market Outlook 💹 Bullish Bias Until BTC Breaks Below $93,800 🎯 Target Areas for TP (Take Profit): ✅ Conservative Traders: Exit near $109,000 - $117,000 ✅ Higher Risk Targets: $131,000 - $139,000 ⚠️ Risk Management: 🛑 Stop-loss: Below $93,000 to protect against a deeper correction. 📈 Scaling In: Consider adding positions if BTC retraces to the 0.382 ($85,800) or 0.5 ($79,800) Fibonacci level. 💡 Summary & Final Thoughts: ✅ BTC is in the final Elliott Wave 5 move, targeting a potential Bull Market Top of $131K - $139K based on Fibonacci extensions. ⚠️ However, RSI is overbought, and MACD momentum is slowing, meaning a pullback to $93K or $85K is possible before the next move higher. 🚀 Bullish until BTC breaks below key supports. Watch $109K and $117K for short-term resistance. 📊 Strategy: Hold long positions with profit-taking targets at $117K, $131K, and $139K. Use $93K as a support level for risk management.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by WaveFibs
1
BTC Going Down, soonWhy would you risk your $ at this level? If you enter btc, there's no logic behind it, just emotions. Don't forget to check SPX/Nasdaq : expecting soon a strong down-move on those aswell. - On the other hand, you might play the borders of the wedge on Alts for 20-30% bounces : Fast Entry - Fast Exit. - Once this breaks below the wedge, we'll see a retest of the border, then going to 74-75k. => I expect top of the cycle 111-112k if we see one more move upwards, but don't risk on it. This is a classic Wyckoff Distribution scheme where shrimps are sucked with chaotic candles to don't understand what's happening, while whales unload their bags. Plan : At 75-76k on btc, I'll enter some strong Alts for a good bounce of 30-50%, then exit and stay out of the market till next good dump.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by MrDorea
BTC LONGBitcoin has already broken out of either a Cup and Handle or an Upside Down Head and Shoulders pattern (howevery you want to view it. It is now pushing through the red trendline resistance. With strong bullish order flow, the next target for more conservative traders is around the $165K mark. Adding to this bullish outlook, President Trump's recent Executive Order (EO) on January 23, "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology," signals a major shift in U.S. policy. This, along with the SEC's rescinding of previous guidance and increasing support for digital assets legislation from Congress, further boosts confidence in the crypto space. The Trump Administration's pro-crypto stance is a sharp contrast to the Biden Administration’s more hostile approach, making it clear that digital assets are now seen as a vital part of America's economic growth and innovation. Keep an eye on the red trendline for confirmation of further upside potential, i want a want a daily close and break of structure to add IBIT calls at the money and ride the wave.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SPYDERMARKET
BTC/USD - 15M Chart Analysis So, here’s what I’m seeing on this setup. Price recently made a Change of Character (ChoCH) to the upside after reacting off the 4-hour buy-side Point of Interest (POI) (the blue zone). That move gave a strong bullish push, showing that buyers are stepping in aggressively. Now, after the break of structure, price retraced into a discount zone, tapping into a smaller premium zone within the demand area. That’s the confirmation I needed for a potential long entry. The daily key level at 99,445 acted as a strong reaction zone, and we got another minor ChoCH, giving an extra confluence for bullish continuation. I placed my entry around the premium zone, with stops just below the swing low (safe area in case of a liquidity grab). The target is set at 101,632, just before the next significant resistance, ensuring we secure profits before heavy sellers step in. The overall idea is to ride the bullish momentum after the structure shift, aiming for the first Take Profit (TP1) before reevaluating. If momentum continues, we could look toward the daily resistance at 102,587 as the next major target. Let’s see how this plays out! 🚀🔥
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by israelharrison010
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Bearish Continuation: Potential Drop AheadThis Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price chart on the 1-hour time Observations: 1. Downtrend Channel: The price has been moving downward within a descending channel (marked in blue). There is consistent lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish structure. 2. Breakout & Retest: The price broke below the descending channel but attempted a small recovery. Currently, it is testing the previous support, which could act as resistance. 3. Bearish Projection: A red downward arrow suggests a possible rejection from this resistance level. The drawn path indicates a potential further decline, possibly targeting the $88,000–$90,000 range. 4. Market Sentiment: A 2.61% decline suggests strong bearish momentum. Economic or external events (represented by icons) may influence the next move. Conclusion: If price fails to break back into the channel and faces rejection, a further drop is expected. A confirmed breakdown could see BTC testing lower support levels around $92,000 or lower.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by FOREX_QUEEN_10
Hold!Bulls! My fellow warriors of the market! I see fear in your eyes... I See hesitation... But I also see fire! The Bears think they own this battlefield! They think they can drive us back, force us to surrender, and take what is ours! But I ask you - will you run? Will you let them push us down, and break our support and trample our dreams?! HELL NO! Then stand up! Hold the damn line! Push through that resistance! The Bears are clawing, but they are weak! You are stronger! Your are relentless! You are BULLS! So I ask you one last time - WHAT ARE YOU DOING LYING THERE? GET UP! PUSH FORWARD BREAK THEIR SPIRIT! TAKE BACK THIS MARKET! DO YOU WANT TO LIVE FOREVER!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by inspectorcrusoe
1
BTC update1️⃣ Why is this level significant? - What makes this level stand out on the chart? - Is there evidence of liquidity resting here (e.g., wicks, consolidation, gaps)? - Has this level been tested multiple times, and if so, what does that tell you and why? 2️⃣ What has happened here in the past? - How has price reacted at levels historically? - Did it act as support, resistance? - What patterns or behaviours emerged? 3️⃣ What remains untraded? - Are there any significant inefficiencies? - Are there untested zones where price could gravitate toward? - What does this suggest about potential future movements? 4️⃣ Who is in control right now—buyers or sellers? - Are there signs of momentum slowing down? - Is price forming structures like higher highs/lower lows that reveal strength or weakness? - How does current price action compare to the broader trend? 5️⃣ What would invalidate your idea? - What specific signal would tell you your hypothesis is wrong? - Are you being too biased toward one outcome? 6️⃣ What is the larger narrative? - How does this level fit into the macro structure of the chart? - Are we in a larger phase? - What’s the relationship between the current level and key higher-timeframe zones? 7️⃣ Are you reacting or Responding? - Are you waiting for confirmation, or are you rushing to trade? - What additional information (e.g., volume spikes, liquidity sweeps) would make your decision clearer?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SERVER_SEVEN
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Feb 4, 2025: Rally PatternToday's rally pattern will attempt to provide some relief related to the recent breakdown in the SPY. Overnight, the ES/NQ rallied to FILL THE GAP. So, today, I believe the SPY will attempt to rally back above 600-601, then stall out and consolidate. Today may be a "GO GOLFING" day in the markets. I would not advise anyone to get Uber-Long in the markets right now. My research suggests the markets will roll downward near the end of this week - seeking the DEEP-V bottom/base I've predicted near 2-10~2-13. Gold and Silver should attempt another rally phase over the next 3 to 4 days. I expect metals to continue to rally into this expansion phase, and I'm initially targeting $3200 for gold. Bitcoin is trapped in a big Excess Phase Peak pattern that I believe will resolve into a breakdown price trend. The Deep-V and other breakdown patterns, which my cycle research says are pending, will drive Bitcoin downward, possibly targeting the $72k levels again. Today may be a relatively FLAT type of Rally day. So, play cautiously. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
3