#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Only Thursday was bullish and right now market is trying to decide if this breakout was legit or not. If bulls can stay above 95000, the breakout above has a higher chance of being succesful. Below 94000 it has likely failed and I favor the bears for more downside.
current market cycle: weekly chart says continuation of the bull trend but i highly doubt it. much more likely we are in a big trading range 73000 - 110000
key levels: 85k - 100k (if bears somehow manage to get below 85k again, we test 80k next)
bull case: Bulls want this breakout to be the start of the third leg up for 100000. That’s all there really is to it. Bull trends need higher lows and higher highs and if bulls fail to prevent the market from falling below the breakout bar under 94000, this was likely a bull trap.
Invalidation is below 94000.
bear case: Bears want a trading range 70000 - 98000 and not let market hit 100000 again because that would for sure attract more degenerates again. Bears really don’t have much here until they print a decent bear bar that gets below 94000. This looks as bullish as can be and above 98000 I expect 100k to be hit.
Invalidation is above 101k.
short term: Neutral. Below 94000 it’s likely a failed breakout and above 97000 we can expect 100000 or more. Above 100000 there would not be a reason not to go for a new ath, same as for other markets like dax.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-13: Bear targets for this year are met. Now we likely range before we get new impulse to either side. I wait for market reaction around 100000 before I write more here. For now my assumption is still that this will be a trading range 73000 - 100000 for longer than a retest or even new highs.
BTCUSD trade ideas
BTCUSD... 4H CHAT PATTERNMY message seems to be a trading signal or trade plan for *BTC/USD (Bitcoin to US Dollar)*. But there's a likely typo or inconsistency in the numbers:
* You wrote: *"Buy now 9726 target 1017"*
* This implies *buying at \$9,726* and targeting *\$1,017, which is a **loss*, not a profit.
### Possible Interpretations:
1. *If you meant:*
*Buy at 9726, **target 10170* → This makes more sense as a profit-oriented trade.
Example:
* Entry: \$9,726
* Target: \$10,170
* Potential gain: \$444
2. *If you actually meant:*
*Buy at 9726, **target 1017* → That’s a major loss and likely a typo.
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*Note:* As of early 2025, Bitcoin has not traded in the \$9,000 range for years. It has been well above \$20,000+ for a long time. This suggests your entry point is outdated or incorrect.
Minas Harvest Grid AIAs your **Bitcoin Spot Grid Trading Expert**, here's my precise take after reviewing the 2-hour BTC/USD chart between **90,000 and 107,500 USD**, broken into **2.5K increments (7 zones)**:
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### 📊 Range Analysis (Last 3 Months Performance)
| Range | Label | Price Range (USD) | Performance Summary |
|-------|--------|-------------------|---------------------|
| L1 | 90K–92.5K | **Decent entry zone** during mid-March. Price bounced quickly—limited time in range. |
| L2 | 92.5K–95K | **Current trading zone**. Good support/resistance flip. Great for recent grid profit. |
| L3 | 95K–97.5K | **Top performer.** Multiple touches and bounces. Ideal range for grid buys/sells. ✅ |
| L4 | 97.5K–100K | **Moderate action.** Revisited but not as frequently. Best for breakouts. |
| L5 | 100K–102.5K| **Short-lived spikes.** Good scalp but not sustainable. Risky grid zone. |
| L6 | 102.5K–105K| **Few touches.** Strong resistance. Good for quick sells, not consistent. |
| L7 | 105K–107.5K| **Least activity.** Barely touched once. Avoid for grid. ❌ |
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### 🏆 Best Performer: **L3 (95K–97.5K USD)**
- High volume of price interaction
- Multiple touches over time
- Repeated mean reversions = **great for grid bot scalping**
- Tight consolidation followed by predictable breakouts
### 💡 Grid Strategy Tip:
If you're running bots, set denser grids in **L2 to L4**. These ranges had **most volatility + volume** recently. Keep wider spacing in L5–L7 only if you anticipate breakout momentum.
Want me to help you fine-tune a grid bot setup for L3 right now?
Ratio Charts in TradingView and IAAbove you can see the Bitcoin to Ethereum ratio chart. Ratio analysis between two or more symbols is a critical method for comparing the strength and weakness of assets relative to each other. TradingView offers basic capabilities for this task, but with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and custom scripts, much more advanced and creative analyses can be conducted.
Here are some practical ideas:
1. Creating Conditional Ratio Scripts
2. Comparing Relative Averages and Issuing Smart Signals
3. Calculating Composite Ratios of Multiple Assets
4. Smart Alerts Based on Price Pattern Breakouts
For more information, search Google for "How to Use Ratio Charts in TradingView: A Hidden Gem for Traders."
$BTC back to $59-62kAs you can see from the chart, BTC is rejecting from the range highs which sets up the next (and final) leg lower before we continue the bull run.
Despite the bounce over the last few weeks, all we've done is retested the area which we broke down from back in February.
Now this sets up a large move lower down to the lower support levels at GETTEX:59K -$62k.
After we tag those levels, we'll continue our next move higher into 2026-2027.
What if I show you Bitcoin is at end of 1st cycle only ?
The Chart above involves TWO things we may need to pay attention to.
There is so much involved in this and I could go on for hours because, for me, this opens the door to so many things for Bitcoin.
And I am now looking at this past 14 years as the "Beginnings".
And we need to wait and see Where we go next before we label that
So..
What do we have here.
The ARC of Resistance. - I have talked about this before. Simply put, PA on every ATH since 2011 has been rejected by the same line / Arc - This needs no more than the Arc on a chart to see...
It is as simple as that.
Beneath this, we have that Dashed line of Support that has Never been Broken. Created off a High in 2011, it got retested as support in 2015 and not again until 2023.
Between these two points, you will notice how that Arc of resistance was at its furthest points from the line of support below.
It is like the Beginning and End of a sequence.......
The next thing we have is a Very interesting thing called the Trend-Based FIB Time.
It is important to understand what this is, So ;-
Trend-Based Fib Time is a technical analysis tool that uses the Fibonacci sequence to predict probable price corrections within an existing trend. It is represented by vertical lines at specific time intervals that show potential areas where a swing high, low, or reversal could occur. These intervals are based on the Fibonacci sequence and are not concerned with price levels but rather with time. The tool helps traders identify how far a wave is likely to travel in the trend.
Note what is in Bold there.
And then look at the chart..It clearly shows us, where PA touched that line of support twice, the Cycle / Wave. The RED zones. And between these was the Trend. The over all Gain in price, over Time.
We have 3 Waves in total. The 3 ATH to ATH from 2017 to now
To further support this idea, see how PA did not come down to the Line of support between the 2017 - > 2021 ATH's
That was MID CYCLE - Strength
And so now, while we all wait for the next push up, I want to show you a zoomed, Daily version of this chart
The Current ATH we have was absolutely on the day of the END of this Fib Time cycle.
I promise you I did not "Adjust this to suit." That was the genuine result.
And I was Stunned.
And more than that, This image also very clearly shows us that Time and Room is running out for PA.
It faces the strongest lines of Support and resistance it has ever faced and these lines reach an apex in Dec.....
PA ALWAYS REACTS BEFORE THE APEX
So, What is Next ?
The chances of Bitcoin crashing to the Floor are highly unlikely unless all the corporations that have been buying BTC, decide to sell them all at the same time.
This IS a possibility ONLY if they are working with the TradFi banking organisations, that tried to Crash BTC in 2022 / 2023
OK OK, that involves ridiculous amounts of Losses for many ..so..NO
BUT PA IS GETTING SQUEEZED
And so we wait....and Wait till we see Bitcoin PA break out, Enter a Brand New Trend..a Long Term Cycle.....and we may call it Adulthood.....
Or, we will have a Story to tell our Grandchildren about a Dream of breaking Free of Banking that Came Oh so Close
I cannot wait to see what happens Next - and I am HODL
Why Volume Bar Colors Can Mislead You█ The Truth Behind Volume Bars — What Do Green and Red Actually Mean?
Most traders learn early on that green volume bars mean bullish activity, and red bars mean bearish pressure. But is it really that simple? What does volume truly reflect, and are we making assumptions that can mislead us?
█ What Volume Actually Is
Volume represents the number of shares/contracts traded during a specific time interval. Every transaction includes both a buyer and a seller. So, volume itself doesn’t distinguish whether a trade was bullish or bearish. Instead, platforms color volume bars based on price movement:
Green: If price closed higher than it opened.
Red: If price closed lower than it opened.
Some platforms, like TradingView, allow you to color volume based on whether the price closed higher or lower than the previous candle’s close.
So YOU, as a trader, have the chance to decide whether to assign volume bars either bullish or bearish! It’s a setting parameter anyone can change. Traders around the globe might look at the same volume bar, but some interpret it as bearish, while others interpret it as bullish. What is the most correct way?
█ The Assumption Behind the Color
This coloring assumes that:
A rising price means buyers were more aggressive (lifting the ask).
A falling price means sellers were more aggressive (hitting the bid).
This is a proxy — an approximation. It simplifies market pressure into a binary outcome: if price goes up, it's bullish volume; if it goes down, it's bearish. But the market isn't always so binary.
However, the assumption is only an approximation of buying vs. selling. In reality, every single trade involves both a buyer and a seller, so volume itself isn’t inherently “buy” or “sell” – what matters is who initiated the trades. As one trading expert explains, talking about “buying volume” vs “selling volume” can be misleading: for every buyer there is a seller, so volume cannot be literally split into purchases and sales. Instead, what traders really mean by “bullish volume” is that buyers were more aggressive (lifting offers) and drove the price up, whereas “bearish volume” means sellers were more aggressive (hitting bids) and drove the price down. The colored volume bar is essentially a proxy for which side won the battle during that bar.
█ Why This Can Mislead You
Price might close higher, not because there were more buyers than sellers (there never are — every trade has both), but because buyers were more urgent. And sometimes price moves due to other forces, like:
Short covering.
Stop-loss runs.
Liquidity vacuums.
This means a green bar might not reflect strong demand, just urgency from the other side closing their positions.
⚪ Example:
Take the well-known GameStop short squeeze as an example. If you looked only at the volume bars during that rally, you’d see a wall of strong green candles and high volume, which might suggest aggressive bullish buying.
However, that interpretation would be misleading.
Under the surface, the surge wasn't driven by fresh bullish conviction — it was massive short covering. Traders who were short were forced to buy back shares to cover their positions, which drove prices even higher. The volume was categorized as bullish, but the true intent behind the move had nothing to do with new buying pressure.
This demonstrates why relying solely on volume color or candle direction can lead to false conclusions about market sentiment.
Does this simple up/down volume labeling truly reflect buying vs. selling pressure? To a degree, yes – it captures the net price outcome, which often corresponds to who was more aggressive. For example, if many buyers are willing to pay higher prices (demand), a bar will likely close up and be colored green, reflecting that buying interest. Conversely, if eager sellers are dumping shares and undercutting each other, price will drop, yielding a red bar that flags selling pressure. Traders often use rising volume on up-moves as confirmation of a bullish trend’s strength, and high volume on down-moves as a warning of distribution, which indeed aligns with traditional analysis
That said, the method has important limitations and nuances, documented both anecdotally and in research:
⚪ Volume is not one-dimensional: Since every trade has both a buyer and seller, one cannot literally count “buy volume” vs “sell volume” without more information. The green/red coloring is a blunt classification based on price direction, not an actual count of buys or sells. It assumes the price change direction is an adequate proxy for the imbalance of buying vs. selling. This is often true in a broad sense, but it’s not a precise measure of order flow.
⚪ Intrabar Dynamics Are Lost: A single bar’s color only tells the end result of that interval, not the story of what happened during the bar. For instance, a 4-hour candle might be red (down) overall, but it could have contained three hours of rally (buying) followed by a steep selloff in the final hour that erased the gains. The volume bar will be colored red due to the net price drop, even though significant buying occurred earlier in the bar. In other words, a large red bar can mask that there were pockets of bullish activity within – the selling just happened to win out by the close of that period. Without looking at smaller time frames or detailed data, one can’t tell from a single color how the buying/selling tug-of-war progressed within the bar.
⚪ Gap Effects and Criteria Choices: The choice of using open vs. close or previous close can alter the interpretation of volume. As discussed, a day with a big gap can be labeled differently under the two methods. Neither is “right” or “wrong” – they just highlight different perspectives (intraday momentum vs. day-over-day change). Traders should be aware that colored volume bars are an approximation. A green volume bar under one method might turn red under the other method for the same bar. This doesn’t mean volume changed – it means the classification scheme changed. For example, a stock that closes below its open but still higher than yesterday will show a red volume bar by the intraday method but would be considered an “up-volume day” in OBV terms (previous close method).
⚪ No Indication of Magnitude or Commitment: A single color also doesn’t convey how much buying or selling pressure there was, only which side won. Two green volume bars might both be green, but one could represent a modest uptick with tepid buying, whereas another could represent an aggressive buying spree – the color alone doesn’t distinguish this (other than one bar likely being taller if volume was higher). Traders often need to consider volume relative to average (e.g. using volume moving averages or looking for volume spikes) to judge the significance of a move, not just the color.
█ Summary
The coloring of volume bars is a visual shortcut, not an exact science. It’s a guess based on price direction — useful, but imperfect. Understanding this helps traders avoid reading too much into what a green or red volume bar actually means.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
BITCOIN BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 96,851.50
Target Level: 85,148.99
Stop Loss: 104,653.17
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
BTC REBOUND? 〉$140,000 NEXTAs illustrated, I'm visualizing what the next impulsive wave could look like.
Price has broken out of a major daily trend line.
It makes sense for the week to have started trading lower to find it's low and potentially bounce with strength sometime this coming up week and into the next.
The next pivot area is between the $82,000 - $80,000 range based on previous week's lows and daily low levels.
An interesting buy opportunity is forming and the potential entry is illustrated as the "pivot area" marked in yellow.
Then we have a major pivot range near the $100,000 psychological price.
.
This could be a price where some short term traders get out "in case it's just a pull back before a collapse" type of decision.
We can't ignore how much price consolidated between 100,000 and 96,000; and so that is the next stepping stone for BTC before breaking to ATH's of at least $120,000.
My personal target is set at the 161.8% extension level as illustrated.
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GOOD LUCK!
Persa
Bitcoin Short Trade Signal: Momentum Fading, Correction AheadBitcoin has been moving within a parallel channel for a while, with many traders eagerly anticipating a push toward the $97,000 mark. However, this scenario is unlikely. Instead, Bitcoin is showing signs of losing momentum, setting the stage for a potential correction.
Given this setup, we maintain our short trade position. As always, proper risk management is essential—make sure to place your stop-loss (SL) and manage your entries wisely. A strategy of two or three entries can help secure a higher SL, reducing exposure to volatility.
Remember, this is not financial advice—always do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
BTCUSD: Gathering Momentum for a BreakthroughThe price of BTCUSD strongly broke through the threshold of $97,000 this week, showing a robust upward momentum. Although there has been a pullback currently, it still remains in a strong uptrend above $95,000 overall. In the short term, the primary target for the upward movement is $98,000. If this level is broken through, the focus will shift to the significant psychological level of $100,000. However, when the price of BTCUSD approaches the level of $98,000, this area will form a resistance, and investors should be cautious about the potential risk of a pullback. If it unexpectedly breaks below the support level of $93,000, it may pull back to the area around $89,000.
Taking all factors into consideration, the overall trend of BTCUSD next week is relatively optimistic, with a high probability of continuing to break through upwards. However, the risk of a pullback should also be watched out for. There are uncertainties in the market, and macroeconomic factors such as the progress of negotiations between the United States and its major trading partners may also have an impact on the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, relevant news should be closely monitored.
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Bitcoin is about to make an upward breakthrough!The price of BTCUSD strongly broke through the threshold of $97,000 this week, showing a robust upward momentum. Although there has been a pullback currently, it still remains in a strong uptrend above $95,000 overall. In the short term, the primary target for the upward movement is $98,000. If this level is broken through, the focus will shift to the significant psychological level of $100,000. However, when the price of BTCUSD approaches the level of $98,000, this area will form a resistance, and investors should be cautious about the potential risk of a pullback. If it unexpectedly breaks below the support level of $93,000, it may pull back to the area around $89,000.
Taking all factors into consideration, the overall trend of BTCUSD next week is relatively optimistic, with a high probability of continuing to break through upwards. However, the risk of a pullback should also be watched out for. There are uncertainties in the market, and macroeconomic factors such as the progress of negotiations between the United States and its major trading partners may also have an impact on the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, relevant news should be closely monitored.
BTCUSD... 1H CHAT PATTERNMy describing a BTC/USD (Bitcoin to US Dollar) *long trade setup* with the following parameters:
* *Entry (Buy):* 9584
* *1st Target (TP1):* 9600
* *2nd Target (TP2):* 9755
* *Stop Loss (SL):* 9500
### Trade Summary:
* *Risk:* 84 points (9584 - 9500)
* *Reward (TP1):* 16 points
* *Reward (TP2):* 171 points
* *Risk/Reward Ratio:*
* TP1: \~0.19 (not favorable)
* TP2: \~2.04 (good)
### Key Considerations:
* TP1 is very close to the entry price — possibly useful for a quick scalp or partial exit.
* The overall trade becomes favorable if you're targeting TP2 and using proper position sizing.
* Ensure this aligns with your trading strategy and current market conditions (momentum, support/resistance, volume).
BTCUSD: Break of Key Level in the Early Trading SessionDuring the early trading session, BTCUSD continued its weak trend. After the price broke below the key support level of $95,000, it kept declining. This price level quickly transformed into a resistance after being breached, suppressing any potential rebound. Currently, the bearish momentum is dominant, and the short-term market sentiment has turned cautious. If it fails to regain the lost ground of $95,000 in the future, the price is likely to decline further, and the next target will be the important support area of $93,000.
BTCUSD
sell@94500-95000
tp:93500-93000
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.