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BTCUSD trade ideas

10/22 Triple divergence is playing out. How deep?Overview: The AMEX:SPY closed down by only 0.16%, despite opening lower than Friday’s close. During the second trading hour, the index dropped 0.5% but managed to recover the losses throughout the day. Only a few AMEX:SPY stocks ended in the green, with Nvidia gaining 4.14%. Despite this minor pullback, the index has seen six consecutive weeks of growth, and one red weekly candle wouldn't derail a bull run that has gained 23% since the start of the year. The tech-heavy NASDAQ:QQQ also closed in the green, up 0.19%, thanks to Nvidia’s boost. The U.S. Leading Indicator Index (LEI) fell by 0.5% month-over-month to 99 in September, a steeper decline than the expected -0.3% and more significant than the -0.2% drop in August, according to The Conference Board’s report on Monday. From March through September 2024, the LEI dropped 2.6%, exceeding the 2.2% decline in the previous six-month period. "Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid." This index has been decreasing since March 2022, and Monday’s reading officially places it below its lowest point during the COVID-19 period in April 2020. However, the rate of decline appears to be slowing. Meanwhile, companies are still reporting better-than-expected earnings. Some well-known names reporting today include GE Aerospace (Boeing's engine supplier), Philip Morris, Verizon, General Motors, 3M, Enphase, and Invesco (owners of the QQQ ETF). The CME Watch Tool now shows an 11.1% chance of no rate cut on November 7th, up from last week’s 9.3%. While BTC dropped 2.40% on Monday, BlackRock still bought $329 million worth of BTC ETFs. It’s almost amusing to think that BlackRock could be acting as someone’s exit liquidity. The firm now owns 362,192 bitcoins, valued at $23.169 billion. BTC TA: W: Unfortunately for the bulls, BTC closed last week at $69k, which is below the highs of the last two bullish waves in late March and early June. D: Monday ended with a 2.40% correction—much needed after last week's strong rally. A timely release of pressure increases the likelihood of the bull run continuing. An important level to maintain is $66.9k, as it’s the point of control for this recent rally starting from October 10th. The next support levels are $65.8k and the key yearly support at $62.7k. Breaking below $62.7k would invalidate the current bullish wave. On the bearish side, Monday’s candle engulfed the previous five trading days (including the weekend). Before the pullback, the RSI hit 70. 4h: As we spotted and wrote about in our previous letter - the 4-hour chart showed MACD, CVD, and RSI divergences, with three consecutive declining peaks as the price continued climbing. The correction began on Sunday evening, and it may take more than a day to fully play out. The key level to hold now is $66.8k—if it breaks, the price may fall to the daily level of $65.8k. So far, it’s holding. 1h: The 1-hour chart looks bullish, as the $66.9k level is holding, with some bullish MACD and RSI divergence showing. Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR have not declined as much as BTC. However, SUI has dropped more significantly by 5%, and TAO by 9%. APT is unexpectedly pumping, while DOGE is up by 27.30%. Seems like alts are diverging from BTC correction. At least the aren't collapsing 7 - 10%, which was the case in the past with BTC falling by 2.4%. Bull Case: BTC could be correcting slightly before resuming the bull run. If a recession is avoided, Trump wins the election, and rates are cut, the outlook remains positive. Bear Case: BTC may have reached an old resistance level without breaking it, confirming it as a solid resistance, and initiating a deeper correction. Fear and Greed Index: The index is back to Neutral at 57, down from the Greed territory of 60 over the weekend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
BTC/USDT Analysis - 4H TimeframeBTC/USDT Analysis - 4H Timeframe Author: Rhino aka Bear ( Crypto Rado ) Date: 10/22/2024 🔹 Overview: Bitcoin has reached the anticipated upper trendline, facing rejection at $69,800. A double bearish divergence on the 4H timeframe signals that this impulsive move has likely peaked. The price briefly broke above the previous high but quickly dropped by $3,000, landing on the monthly pivot point and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, leading to a small bounce. 🔹 Current Expectation: I anticipate a retest of the $68,000–$68,500 zone before the downtrend continues toward $65,500–$65,000. This next key support area is reinforced by the 0.382 Fibonacci level, S1 pivot, and significant price action. The Simple Moving Average is also moving toward this zone, making it a confluence area of interest. So far, the price has made an impulsive five-wave move downward, followed by a corrective ABC structure. Waves A and B appear complete, and we are likely in wave C, heading for the $68,000–$68,500 zone. If this zone fails, we may see a move towards $48,000, $44,000, or even $40,000. However, it's too early to confirm a full bearish reversal at this point. 🔹 Key Levels:🔹 Resistance Zone: $68,000–$68,500 TP 1: $65,500–$65,000 TP 2: $62.9 - 61.3k Invalidation: 69.6k Next Potential Targets (Bearish): $48,000 / $44,000 / $40,000 🚨 Disclaimer:🚨 ⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and assess the risks before trading.⚠️
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by RhinoAkaBear
BTC going down!After meeting heavy resistance at 68 - 69k, BTC is on a downtrend. And this makes my prediction correct for now , but this does not mean that the bull movement is completely over. I still expect some price actions around 66.5k which is the price of the upper (resistance) line of the downtrend - which now works as the support level. And there's a good chance this might change the tide and start the bullish movement again. Or the price might just pierce through the level, which would then make the bearish prediction stronger. My humble piece of advice here would be: React, not predict.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by QJEEE
1
#Bitcoin Wave Count and Primary Bullish Move Targets#Bitcoin overall #Elliottwave count of the primary bullish move since late November 2022. With price breaking above the bearish trendline that had kept it lower since March 12th, we can confidently say that the complex consolidation under wave ④ of iii has ended, and we're now in the impulsive wave ⑤ of iii. Looking more closely at wave ⑤, we can see that waves (1) and (2) are complete, and we're currently in wave (3) of ⑤. Based on Fibonacci tools, I believe wave ⑤ could target a range between 75,000 and 97,000. However, the key takeaway here is not just the targets but that we're in a bullish impulsive wave ⑤ and how we can take advantage of this using our strategies. Another bullish confluence on the chart is the formation of a reverse Head and Shoulders pattern, visible at the end of the bearish corrective wave ④ and the start of wave ⑤.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by mohemati
1
BITCOIN When the 4 year Cycles do the talking..It's been some time since we last used the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) but the timing is just right to bring you an update, only 2 weeks before the U.S. Presidential Elections with the market ahead on an imminent bullish break-out. This time we look into how the price was trading on this date every 4 years. As you know BTC is trading roughly within 4 year Cycles that keep a high degree of symmetry and tend to repeat a lot of dynamics each time. Right now, towards the end of October (2024), the price is trading within the Mean MM (black trend-line) and the 1st SD above (grey trend-line). It has already started rising off the Mean MM. Based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, it is no surprise then that the price was within the exact same range in October 2020, October 2016 and October 2012. The degree of symmetry is remarkable and is yet again showcased by this indicator. We can also see that by this time every 4 years, the price had already started rising off the Mean MM, just as it is doing now. With the green Rectangles we display the date range between these 4-year intervals and the peak of the Bull Cycle. For October 2012 it took 58 weeks (406 days) until it topped, October 2016 was 60 weeks (420 days) while October 2020 was 55 days (385 days). So time-wise the Cycle tends to peak roughly the same period. As a result, if we take the minimum scenario of 55 weeks, we can expect the Cycle to top by mid November 2025. As far as targets are concerned, the first two Cycles hit (and broke) the 3 SD above (red trend-line), while the last one the 2 SD above (orange trend-line). Again assuming a 'worst case scenario' hitting 'just' the 2 SD trend-line, we can set a Target Range of 190k - 250k, depending on whether the price hits it halfway through the 55 week range or towards its end. Nevertheless, an exciting rally appears to be starting for Bitcoin. So what do you think? Is this October MMB fractal about to break to a parabolic rally? And if so, will it hit the orange trend-line? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
4
Trade Idea for BTCUSDMy sentiment about BTCUSD is firmly bullish. I plan to utilize probabilities to strategically position myself into long positions. This approach allows me to leverage statistical analysis and market behavior to enhance my trading decisions. Several key fundamentals are currently influencing the market in a direction that aligns with my bullish bias on BTCUSD: Institutional Adoption: There has been a notable increase in institutional interest in Bitcoin, with major firms investing heavily. This trend suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset. Economic Uncertainty: Global economic conditions remain volatile, leading many investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Technological Advancements: Innovations in blockchain technology and increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies for transactions are contributing to a more robust ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's utility and attractiveness. Conclusion In summary, my bullish stance on BTCUSD is supported by both statistical probabilities and current global fundamentals. By strategically using probabilities, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market. This method not only enhances my trading strategy but also aligns with broader economic trends that favor the growth of Bitcoin. Let’s dive into the top-down analysis together! Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome! 1D: Hourly Timeframes: If you found this analysis useful, please boost and comment! Your support helps us all grow!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Jasminex1x2
2
Oct.15-Oct.21(BTC)Weekly market recapThe CME interest rate swap market predicts that the FOMC will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in November. This means that after a 50 basis point cut, the Federal Reserve will loosen its monetary policy. This is not favorable for risk assets, including BTC. In the past two weeks, BTC ETFs have seen significant net inflows, indicating that after the shift in monetary policy, funds are gradually flowing into the cryptocurrency market. This is a large-scale trend. BTC is rapidly approaching its all-time high (ATH). However, the pricing in the interest rate market for a November rate cut may lead to some degree of correction for BTC. Additionally, the U.S. presidential election will take place in early November. While Harris has expressed support for cryptocurrencies, Trump is undoubtedly the biggest supporter for the sector. The importance of the U.S. election for BTC is increasing. As we expected, BTC maintained its upward trend last week and moved above the given support level. We can see the blue bars representing whales appearing on the WTA indicator. The macro shift is starting to attract large capital. The purple wave area on the ME indicator is widening, indicating stronger bullish sentiment. In summary, we believe BTC may experience a correction this week and then continue to rise afterward. We are raising the resistance level to 70,000 and the support level to 60,000. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool
The Effects of Sleep Deprivation on Trader Decision MakingTrading in financial markets, such as forex, commodities, or indices, requires sharp cognitive skills and emotional discipline. But how much does sleep — or lack thereof — play into our trading success? Sleep deprivation is a silent enemy for traders, eroding decision-making abilities and performance without us realizing it. 1️⃣ Impaired Cognitive Processing and Analytical Thinking Sleep deprivation significantly hampers cognitive processing and problem-solving abilities, which are crucial for traders. After just one night of poor sleep, it becomes harder to think clearly and analyze the market effectively. Studies show that people suffering from sleep loss often struggle with analytical tasks, especially those involving logic and pattern recognition, such as chart analysis and reading economic data. For example, imagine a trader who has to make rapid decisions about volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/JPY. With a foggy mind, they may overlook critical data or misinterpret price action, leading to poor trading choices. This cognitive sluggishness can seriously undermine even the most experienced traders' performance. 2️⃣ Increased Emotional Volatility and Risk-Taking Emotional regulation becomes much more difficult when sleep-deprived. When tired, we tend to become more emotionally reactive, leading traders to either take on more risk than they should or to become overly cautious at the wrong times. This stems from the fact that sleep loss disrupts the balance in the prefrontal cortex, the brain’s decision-making center, and heightens activity in the amygdala, responsible for emotional reactions. Take the classic example of the 2008 financial crisis: traders working around the clock, making high-stress decisions under sleep-deprived conditions, likely fell victim to increased risk-taking behaviors, leading to further losses. A trader who slept poorly might overtrade or refuse to exit losing positions, driven by fear or a lack of sound judgment. 3️⃣ Reduced Focus and Increased Error Rates Sleep deprivation drastically reduces our ability to focus for extended periods, a skill critical in day trading or monitoring positions across global markets. A tired trader often finds their attention wandering, increasing the chances of missing key market signals or making errors in order execution. In my own experience, I’ve noticed that when I am sleep-deprived, simple tasks such as placing bids and offers or calculating position sizes can suddenly become prone to error. This aligns with research indicating that sleep deprivation increases error rates by up to 20-30% in decision-intensive tasks. 4️⃣ Slow Reaction Times in Fast-Moving Markets Forex and commodities markets can move quickly, and trading success often hinges on reaction times. Sleep-deprived traders experience slower physical and mental response times, leaving them at a disadvantage when reacting to sudden market moves. Imagine a forex trader dealing with a sudden spike in USD/JPY due to a central bank decision. If sleep-deprived, their delayed response might lead to missed opportunities or deeper losses. This is especially problematic for traders who use scalping strategies or rely on algorithms that require real-time adjustments. 5️⃣ Inability to Learn from Mistakes and Reflect on Trades Good traders always reflect on their trades, learning from both successes and failures. However, sleep deprivation impairs memory and reflection, hindering a trader’s ability to learn and adapt over time. When sleep-deprived, your brain struggles to consolidate memories and draw insights from past experiences, reducing the likelihood of improving your trading performance in the future. For instance, if a trader misreads price action on a commodity chart while sleep-deprived, they may not internalize the mistake, missing a valuable opportunity to refine their strategy. 6️⃣ Sleep Deprivation and the Power of Compounding Mistakes One of the worst aspects of sleep deprivation in trading is the compounding of errors. As mistakes pile up due to poor judgment, emotional volatility, or reduced focus, a trader’s confidence starts to erode, leading to a vicious cycle of bad decisions. This can severely impact their overall profitability. In my own practice, I have observed how lack of sleep creates a negative spiral. Missing an early trade or not protecting gains on a position due to poor judgment can easily snowball into chasing entries, overtrading, or emotional decision-making. Understanding this compounding effect helps highlight the critical importance of maintaining mental clarity and managing sleep quality as part of a sound trading strategy. 7️⃣ The Need for Restorative Sleep and Recovery The key to mitigating all these negative effects lies in prioritizing restorative sleep. Research shows that consistent, quality sleep helps replenish cognitive resources, enhance memory retention, and balance emotions. Traders need to adopt disciplined sleep hygiene just as they do their trading strategies. Setting up a sleep schedule and sticking to it, avoiding caffeine and screens late in the evening, and creating a relaxing pre-sleep routine can help prevent many of the issues discussed above. In addition, some traders integrate mindfulness practices, such as meditation or yoga, into their daily routines to help regulate stress and emotions, enhancing their overall sleep quality and trading focus. These holistic approaches are invaluable for keeping cognitive function at peak levels in high-stakes environments. It’s clear that sleep deprivation can be disastrous for traders. From impairing cognitive processing to increasing emotional volatility, sleep loss diminishes trading performance in multiple ways. By understanding these risks and implementing strategies for improved sleep hygiene and mindfulness, traders can maintain a sharper edge in the markets and make more informed, objective decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by AlexSoro
2
Bitcoin Breakout Alert! Will We See $85,000 Soon?**🚀 Bitcoin Breakout Alert! 🚀 Will We See $85,000 Soon?** 💥 Bitcoin is currently re-testing a breakout at $67,000 with momentum building up! 📈 The charts are showing strong bullish signals, and we’re looking at the possibility of hitting the $85K resistance zone soon. 🔥 📊 RSI is in the bullish zone, and the market seems ready for a powerful move! Will we continue upward, or are we in for a retest? 🔔 Keep an eye on key support levels at $49,723 – volatility is real! 🌐 #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #Breakout #Trading #CryptoNews #CryptoTrading #BTCPrice #Cryptocurrency #BTCto85K #Blockchain #HODL
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by profitoptionnew