BTCUSD trade ideas
Are you falling for 141k?The bull run on BTCUSD was not sudden, it corrected properly making a flat from 98K and breaking out the structure. this upward impulse looks too sharp to peirce 120-122k range its 1.618 fib extension of the broken structure.
Be cautious with the sell though, any rejection followed by a bear flag could be a great short with Stop above the top.
Good luck.
BTC/USD 30MCHART PATTERNThis chart shows the price action of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 30-minute timeframe, with a variety of session-specific high and low labels and possible trade setup zones. Here's a breakdown of the key components and what they indicate:
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1. Timeframe & Instrument
Instrument: Bitcoin vs. U.S. Dollar (BTC/USD)
Timeframe: 30-minute candles
Exchange: Bitstamp
Date Range: July 8–11, 2025
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2. Session Labels
The chart includes key session high/low markers which are common in institutional trading analysis:
NYAM.H / NYAM.L: New York AM session High/Low
NYPM.H / NYPM.L: New York PM session High/Low
AS.H / AS.L: Asia session High/Low
LO.H / LO.L: London Open High/Low
NYL.H / NYL.L: New York Lunch High/Low
These session levels are often used to identify liquidity pools or areas where price might react due to prior institutional activity.
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3. Trade Setup Zones
Orange box (top): Likely a sell-side liquidity or resistance zone, possibly a target for a long trade.
Green box (bottom): Likely a buy-side liquidity or support zone, possibly a stop loss or retracement target.
These zones often represent risk-reward blocks based on prior session data or imbalance fill areas.
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4. Price
Current Price: ~$116,586
Recent High (AS.H): $116,992
Key Support Levels: $113,065 and $110,193 (from prior session lows)
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5. Price Structure
The chart shows a clear uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows.
Breakouts followed by consolidations near session highs suggest bullish momentum.
Potential continuation of the uptrend unless the price breaks below the previous session low (marked NYPM.L or NYL.L).
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Conclusion
This is a well-marked institutional-style price action chart, likely using ICT (Inner Circle Trader) or SMC (Smart Money Concepts) principles. It’s showing bullish strength with multiple liquidity grabs followed by expansions to the upside. Key levels for future movement include:
Break and close above AS.H → Potential continuation toward next liquidity zone.
Drop below NYPM.L or NYL.L → Potential reversal or retracement.
Let me know if you'd like help planning a trade based on this chart!
BITCOIN BREAKOUT IMMINENT (120K)The Trend is your Friend. Bitcoin’s current action is the kind of bull‐market digestion you want to see before the next big surge. We’ve powered up from roughly $50 K on the Trump‐election narrative to flirt with all‐time‐high territory around $112 K, and now we’re simply consolidating in a tight $100 K–$110 K range. What really grabs my attention is how volume has dried up inside that band: fewer sellers stepping up means less fuel for a deep pullback, and an ebb in liquidity often precedes the kind of compressed buildup that launches a sharp move. That liquidity squeeze tells me smart money is biding its time rather than panicking out, and that sets the stage for a clean breakout once a new catalyst arrives.
Technically, the setup could hardly be neater. The 10-, 21- and 50-period moving averages have converged, running almost in lockstep. When those averages come together like train tracks, it signals a market in “healthy pause” — neither exhausted by an overextended rally nor capitulating under bearish pressure. It’s the kind of feature you love to see: price has had its run, it’s caught its breath, and it’s ready to go again on fresh conviction. Meanwhile, the RSI sits squarely in the middle of its range, neither overbought nor oversold, meaning there’s plenty of room for buyers to step in without an immediate pullback risk from extreme readings. In other words, momentum indicators are calm, not frothy or fearful, which further supports the case for a measured upward thrust rather than a sudden crash.
On the macro side, fundamentals are lining up, too. Monthly passive inflows into Bitcoin ETPs and ETFs continue at a robust clip, with institutions quietly adding to their positions out of the spotlight. If the Fed pivots toward rate cuts later this year, capital that’s been chasing yield elsewhere could flow back into risk assets — and Bitcoin, with its “digital gold” narrative, stands to gain especially when you consider its roughly $2 trillion market cap versus gold’s $20 trillion. That leaves a lot of upside potential if institutional demand keeps accelerating. Even more compelling: real‐world use cases for blockchain—everything from proof‐of‐ownership to decentralized finance—continue to mature behind the scenes, reinforcing Bitcoin’s narrative as not just a speculative asset, but a foundational piece of tomorrow’s financial system.
Of course, we can’t ignore the risks. We’ve already seen Bitcoin price near $112 K once, and there’s always the chance it carves a frustrating double-top if it stalls again. External narratives—Middle‐East tensions, renewed Ukraine tensions, fresh tariff skirmishes—could throw cold water on the rally and trigger a quick sell-off. But given the current setup—low‐volume consolidation, converging moving averages, balanced RSI and steady capital flows—a 10 % push toward $120 K feels not just possible but probable. Keep your eye on $112 K as your breakout trigger, size your positions sensibly, and plan your stop-loss around the lower end of the range. If Bitcoin can clear that level on strong volume, we’re likely to see this bull market extend rather than roll over into a double-top scenario. Happy trading, stay disciplined, and let’s see where this market takes us next!
BTCUSD Chart Analysis (Daily Timeframe)Chart Analysis – BTC/USD (Daily Timeframe)
Trend Overview:
* The chart shows **Bitcoin (BTC/USD)** on the **daily timeframe**.
* Price is in a **clear uptrend**, making **higher highs and higher lows**.
* The recent breakout above **\$111,000** suggests a **bullish continuation**.
Moving Average Analysis (EMA 7, 21, 50):
* **EMA 7 > EMA 21 > EMA 50** — this alignment confirms **strong bullish momentum**.
* Price is **well above all EMAs**, especially the 50 EMA (\~\$105,546), showing trend strength and possible institutional support.
* EMAs are **sloping upward**, which further confirms the upward momentum.
Recent Breakout:
* BTC broke out of a **short-term consolidation zone** between \~\$108,000–\$111,000.
* Today’s candle shows a **strong bullish close**, indicating fresh buying interest.
* If this breakout holds, price could extend toward the **next psychological level of \$115,000–\$117,500**.
Support Zones to Watch:
* **Minor support:** \~\$109,000 (EMA 7 + breakout retest area)
* **Stronger support:** \~\$105,500 (EMA 50 and previous swing low)
A break below **\$105,500** could signal a trend shift or deeper pullback.
Summary:
Bitcoin is showing **strong bullish structure** on the daily chart with EMAs aligned upward and a recent breakout above \$111,000. If momentum holds, next upside targets are around **\$115,000–\$117,500**. The bullish trend remains intact unless price breaks and closes below **\$105,500**.
Bitcoin at Triple Resistance – Will the Third Time Break It?BTC/USD is pressing against a key resistance zone near $112,500 for the third time in recent months.
This time, the breakout attempt is backed by a clear ascending trendline, showing sustained bullish pressure from the lows.
Highlights:
Triple top formation? Or ascending triangle breakout?
$112.5K has rejected BTC twice already
Higher lows = buyers stepping in more aggressively
Watch for volume surge and daily close confirmation
Break above = $118K–$120K likely in play.
Reject = revisit of trendline support near $106K.
Bitcoin Is Looking For A Bullish ContinuationMorning all! Bitcoin has impulsive characteristics on 4h time frame, and we can clearly see five waves up that can send the price even higher after recent projected ABC correction. With the current impulsive recovery back above 106k area, it confirms that bulls are still here and we should be aware of further rally in July, especially if breaks above channel resistance line near 110k area. Seems like it's in wave (1) of a new five-wave bullish impulse, so after current wave (2) pullback, we can expect more gains within wave (3).
BTCUSD Breakout Confirmed – Targeting Next Reversal ZoneBitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading around $108,700, showing strong bullish momentum after breaking out of a consolidation structure. Price action has shifted significantly, with clear structural developments pointing toward continued upside — but not without caution around the next reversal zone.
🔍 Key Technical Insights:
🔹 1. Volume Contraction Triangle (Bullish Breakout)
The chart initially shows a volume contraction pattern forming a symmetrical triangle.
This pattern is often associated with market compression — a setup where smart money accumulates before a breakout.
BTC broke out of the triangle with strong bullish candles, confirming buyers have stepped in with conviction.
🔄 2. Structure Shift & Break of Structure (BOS)
A major BOS (Break of Structure) occurred as price broke previous swing highs, confirming a bullish market structure.
This BOS zone now acts as a potential support area if BTC pulls back.
A short-term SR interchange zone (Support becomes Resistance) was also respected and flipped again to support during the breakout — a clear sign of structural strength.
🧭 3. Next Reversal Zone – Supply in Sight
Price is approaching a major supply/reversal zone between $109,750 and $110,250.
This zone has previously shown strong selling interest.
Traders should watch for rejection or continuation patterns within this zone — such as bearish divergence, exhaustion candles, or confirmation of resistance.
🛡 4. Major Support Level
Below current price, a major support zone around $107,500–$107,800 remains intact.
This zone has provided a solid base during past consolidations and would be the first area of interest for buyers if a retracement occurs.
📌 Strategy Plan:
🔼 For Bullish Traders:
Those already in the breakout can hold with targets toward $110,000–$110,250.
If not in yet, wait for a retest of BOS/SR zone (~$109,000) for a safer re-entry.
Consider partial take-profits within the green reversal zone.
🔽 For Bearish Traders:
Watch for price exhaustion or a fake breakout in the reversal zone.
Potential short setups could form only if price fails to hold above the BOS zone and prints a lower high.
🔧 Technical Summary:
✅ Structure: Bullish Break of Structure confirmed
🔺 Momentum: Strong upside following volume contraction
📍 Next Key Resistance: $110,000–$110,250
📉 Major Support: $107,500–$107,800
⚠️ Caution Zone: Reversal area ahead – watch price action closely
Conclusion :
Bitcoin looks set to challenge the $110K psychological level as buyers remain in control. However, the reversal zone above is critical. A clean break and hold above it could open doors to further highs, while rejection here may trigger short-term pullbacks or range-bound conditions.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently in wave 3 of a 5 (Elliott Wave)BTC/USD experienced a halving last year on April 20, 2024. We have been seeing the typical post-halving cycle with exponential upside, followed by deep pullbacks. The price action we've seen to date follow Elliott Wave Cycle quite nicely. I believe we are in wave 3 of a bull cycle that has really been in place since Sep 2024.
- Wave 1: Sep 2024 - Jan 2025 - parabolic upside from $54K to $109K - absolutely explosive!
- Wave 2: Jan 2025 - Apr 2025 - we saw price peak and pull back all the way to the 61.8% Fibonacci level right around $75K. Remember, that in wave 2, a healthy pullback is 50% - 61.8% of the first wave.
- Wave 3: Apr 2025 - we have since rallied to around $109K as of this analysis. We are likely in subwave 3. Subwave 1 was from the low in April to the high in May (around $112K). Subwave 2 was a very nice 3-wave zig zag (reaching low of $98.3K in June). I believe we are currently in the middle of wave 3.
My next price target based on Fibonacci extension is $118K-$120K with the $78.6% level right at $119K. Note current resistance that we need to turn into support ($109.7K level) is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level. I do expect a meaningful pullback after the peak of wave 3, which would be wave 4. The rest is TBD and I will continue to update this idea.
Remember, Elliott Wave theory is one tool in the toolbox. I do believe there is a larger post-halving cycle narrative that is dominant and most reliable, especially since BTC has largely followed this blueprint that we see every four years, but as of now EWT fits in quite nicely. I also look at the pi cycle top indicator and believe we need to use multiple indicators to understand where we are in the cycle.
BTCUSD (Bitcoin): Forex Technical AnalysisDate: 11 July 2025
Momentum: Up
First Scenario : long positions above 115,706.14 with targets at 117,269.52, 117,904.51 and 118,513.05
Second Scenario : short positions below 115,706.14 with targets at 114,544.35, 113,774.89 and 113,053.39
Comment: RSI - Bullish.
Supports and resistances :
118,513.05 **
117,904.51 *
117,269.52
116,747.25 - Last price
114,544.35
113,774.89 *
113,053.39 **
BTCUSD At Crucial Pivot Point. Is This The Ceiling? - PhoenixFX BTCUSD Price-Action Analysis & Scenarios
Below is an overview of the two possible paths for Bitcoin over the coming days, as sketched out by the black and red arrows on your chart. We’ll also highlight the key pivot level and resistance zone that will decide which scenario plays out.
🔵 Key Levels to Watch
Established Resistance (~$111,800–$112,500)
This zone marks multiple failed attempts to break higher in recent weeks. It’s where large stop-runs and sell-side limit orders tend to cluster. A decisive daily close above $112K is required to signal genuine bullish continuation.
Daily Pivot Point (~$110,600)
Acting as the “battle line” between bulls and bears, this pivot is the first level to confirm market bias.
Above $110.6K: Tends to favor buyers, suggesting strength and higher-high attempts.
Below $110.6K: Gives the bears the edge, increasing the odds of deeper retracements.
📈 Black-Arrow (“Bullish Continuation”) Scenario
Break & Hold Above Resistance
Price thrusts cleanly above $112K on strong volume.
Retest the H4 Order Block (~$111,000–$111,200)
A shallow pullback into the highlighted H4 demand zone (blue box) offers a lower-risk long entry.
New Highs
From there, Bitcoin resumes its uptrend, closing the week with fresh highs above the prior $113K peak.
Key Trigger: Sustained daily close above $112K, followed by a successful retest of that level.
📉 Red-Arrow (“Bearish Rejection & Dip”) Scenario
Rejection at Resistance
Price stalls and reverses somewhere between $111,800–$112,500, forming a bearish reversal candle.
Drop to Daily FVG Zone (~$104,000–$105,000)
This larger Daily Fair-Value Gap (blue box lower on the chart) coincides with strong weekly support—an ideal zone for dip buyers.
Recovery Rally
After absorbing selling pressure in the FVG, BTC bounces back toward the established resistance, setting up a second test of $112K.
Key Trigger: Clear bearish price action (e.g., engulfing or pin-bar) in the $111.8K–$112.5K zone, followed by a daily close below the pivot at $110.6K.
🎯 How to Trade These Setups
Bullish Entry:
Wait for daily close > $112K
Enter on pullback into $111K–$111.2K (H4 order block)
Stop below $110.6K pivot; target new highs above $113K+
Bearish Entry:
Look for bearish reversal signals in $111.8K–$112.5K
Enter on break & close below $110.6K pivot
Target $104K–$105K (Daily FVG); stop above $112.5K
Note: The pivot at $110.6K is your first “line in the sand” for bias—trade in the direction of the break, and use the major resistance zone to confirm strength or failure. Always manage your risk and adjust to how price actually unfolds!
Just a Heads-Up:
This is my take on the charts—not gospel, not financial advice, and definitely not a crystal ball 🔮. Trading is part skill, part patience, and part “what just happened?” 😅
We all see things a little differently, and that’s the beauty of it. So if you’ve got a hot take, wild theory, or just want to drop some chart wisdom—hit the comments!
Let’s grow, learn, and laugh through the madness together. 🚀📈
Each one, teach one.
— Phoenix FX Team 🔥🦅
Bitcoin Breakout Watch – BTC/USD UpdateBTCUSD is currently consolidating above the $112,000 level — a critical price zone that could mark the beginning of a new leg higher.
If this consolidation holds, it signals strong buyer interest and sets the stage for a potential breakout. The next major target lies at $120,000, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, a key level often associated with explosive momentum moves.
💡 This setup reflects growing confidence in the crypto space and may attract institutional inflows if confirmed.
End in sight, Bull run near complete, don't be fooled. Bitcoin has experienced an incredible surge, rising from $15,000 to over $111,000 in this bull cycle so far. I expect the market peak to be around $114,000 to $115,000, with historical trends indicating strong resistance at these levels. As a long-term Bitcoin bull who has navigated through multiple cycles, I see several indicators suggesting we might be nearing a market top.
Firstly, this bull run has lasted 623 days, with only 462 days remaining until the predicted next cycle bottom. This could lead to a significant correction in the short term, potentially dropping prices by at least 50% down to below $40,000. Additionally, trading volume is declining; although exchange volume is decreasing, the number of trades per day is also dwindling. This means there’s less buying and selling pressure in the market. If this trend shifts to more selling pressure amidst such low volume, we could see a rapid decline. This scenario seems to align with what market whales may be anticipating.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is certainly supporting the market, along with new institutional investors. However, we have yet to fully assess the impact of tariffs and other economic factors, which could result in fewer people willing to invest, especially in high-risk markets.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has been high, remaining above 66 since March 2024, which also suggests that a correction is due, as many holders are currently in profit. Although institutional investment has been steadily increasing, we are now observing a plateau in the Accumulation/Ddistribution chart. The number of BTC long positions is decreasing, while shorts remain very low, indicating a lack of confidence that Bitcoin will rise significantly higher. This low interest in both longs and shorts suggests that market pressure could shift soon.
ETF inflows have remained stable, but profit-taking is likely to occur as investors seek to increase their positions in the bear market. While we all love Bitcoin and want the rally to continue, it's crucial to remember that a bear market will eventually happen, along with the next halving—it's just a matter of timing.
Looking at the charts, if anything signifies a market top more than “Laser Eyes,” it could very well be Trump coin. We might see another upward push, but history has shown that if everyone expects a massive rally in September or the fourth quarter, the opposite usually occurs; we end up buying the rumor and selling the news.
Safe trading, everyone! I remain a staunch Bitcoin bull, but I recognize that all good things must eventually come to an end and the next cycle will be so exciting, so make sure youe have the reserves to invest in the bear!
Bitcoin Roadmap to $144K by September – Daily Chart Breakout SetHello traders,
I'm sharing my current outlook on Bitcoin using the daily timeframe. Price is ~109K below a key descending trendline (in red), which has defined the structure since 21 May.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $111,000
Support: $91,000
Current Price: ~$109,000
⚡ Breakout Scenario:
If Bitcoin closes above $111K on the daily chart, backed by strong volume (ideally 30% above the 20-day average), I expect the next targets to unfold as:
✅ $122,000
✅ $133,000
✅ $144,000
🗓️ Target date for $144K: Around 22 September 2025
This projection is based on a pivot structure I’m tracking:
🟢 25 March 2025: Pivot low at ~$84K
🔴 12 June 2025: Pivot high
🟡 Expected pivot high: ~4 September 2025 (if symmetry holds)
This pattern suggests a 1-2-3 formation that could lead to a breakout move.
🧯 Failure Scenario:
If BTC fails to break out, I’m watching for a pullback toward the $91K support zone.
🛑 Current Stance:
I’m not in a position yet. Waiting for a daily candle close above $111K with volume confirmation and momentum indicators.
📣 Stay Updated
I’ll be sharing daily updates as the price action evolves.
Follow me here on TradingView, and feel free to share your analysis or ask questions in the comments!
🏷️ Hashtags:
#BTCUSD #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoTrading #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrade #BreakoutSetup
Let me know your comments.
BTCUSD: Whales Move 80,000 BTC, Shaking the MarketBTCUSD on Alert: Whales Move 80,000 BTC, Shaking the Market
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The cryptocurrency market witnessed one of the year’s most puzzling moves this week. Over 80,000 Bitcoins—worth more than $8.6 billion—were transferred from wallets that had been inactive since the early years of the crypto ecosystem. These transfers, originating from addresses linked to 2010 and 2011, sparked a wave of reactions among investors, analysts, and crypto enthusiasts.
Fundamental Analysis: Mass Sell-Off or Simple Restructuring?
The market's initial response was uncertainty. It’s unusual for wallets from the so-called “Satoshi era” to become active again. However, research led by Arkham Intelligence and other on-chain analysis firms indicates that this was not an immediate sale. The BTC was not sent to exchanges, but to new addresses—possibly with enhanced security (SegWit or multisig technologies)—suggesting an internal reorganization rather than a liquidation.
On a macro level, the environment remains favorable for Bitcoin:
– Institutional inflows via ETFs have already surpassed $14 billion in 2025.
– Broader adoption is expected, driven by proposals such as the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. and clearer regulations in advanced economies.
– The market has shown resilience in the face of similar events in the past, reducing the risk of a structural correction.
Technical Analysis: Consolidation Zone with Key Resistance at $112,000
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has maintained a strong bullish structure in recent weeks but is currently in a consolidation phase near its all-time highs:
• Key support: $103,477, located mid-range of the current consolidation zone. The lower bound sits at $98,209, where the price has reacted positively following the whale movements. The delta pressure zone is positioned at the upper part of the range, near current price levels.
• Immediate resistance: $111,978.21, a breakout of which could open the door to a move toward $112,000–$115,000.
• Daily RSI: Neutral bias with slight overbought conditions at 54.11%.
• Moving averages: The 50- and 100-day EMAs show clear compression—typically a precursor to a breakout—while the 200-day EMA remains well expanded, appearing to support the current consolidation.
Volume remains elevated but without speculative spikes, and funding rates in the derivatives market are still positive, suggesting sustained buying interest.
Conclusion: A Symbolic Shake-Up Rather Than a Threat
Although the whale movements have made headlines and stirred speculation about a possible sell-off, the signs point to a technical update rather than a shift in trend. The market has remained stable over the past 48 hours, with technical indicators and macro fundamentals supporting a short-term neutral-to-bullish outlook.
The key will be whether these funds remain dormant or begin to disperse in smaller transactions. For now, the crypto ecosystem has weathered the shake-up without major consequences, reinforcing the growing maturity of an increasingly institutional market.
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BTC/USD Analysis Update. Chart Pattern:
The chart clearly shows an Inverse Head & Shoulders structure:
Left Shoulder
Head
Right Shoulder
This is a strong bullish reversal pattern.
Moving Averages:
Price hovers near the 100-day and 200-day MA, acting as a strong support zone (around $90k–$95k).
This area is critical for sustaining long positions.
Expected Move:
Strong bullish potential towards the $113k–$115k zone, aligned with the upper trendline target.
RSI also suggests room for a bullish recovery from this zone.
Trade Plan:
Ideal Entry: Near $90k–$95k (Right Shoulder area)
Stop Loss: Just below $88k
Target: $113k–$115k
This structure is very favorable for long positions if the price confirms strength within the right shoulder zone.