BTCUSDC trade ideas
Bitcoin SUDDENLY FALLS - ON SATURDAY...
When a big Fund or Whale intend to sell and LIQUIDATE a big Chunk of its soon-to-be-worthless Bitcoin - it OPTIMIZES the time and day.
The smallest participation in the Market is of course on Saturdays and Sundays when almost all the Institutionals are closed.
Then The price reaction to a big sale will be the least on weekends.
This IS A REPEATING trend - BIG BITCOIN SELLOFS start on weekend.
BTC will bottom at 12k, accumulation 12k and 19k, 2025 135kIf we break 20k and flip it to resistance then we will indeed go to 12k levels, where there is big support.
This is possible from fundamental analysis
1. more rate hikes for about three quarters
2. stock market has not bottomed out, there is support coming in, though
3. borrow protocols like celsius and 3ac who needs to be liquidated
4. 4 year cycle respected
Adam and Eve inverted pattern is also very strong, don't underestimate it
Bitcoin 60% move to $48k near termIt is sickening. Glassnode is continuing to indicate wallets that bought Bitcoin last year are the ones selling. Yet I know there’s a high probability price action is about to move back up to $48k. Regardless of ‘how’ I feel about this, the market needed to move those players off the board.
On the above 10hr chart price action has corrected a massive 40% since the sell signal.
>> Side note: As far as I can tell price action has never corrected this deeply in such as short space of time, not even during the March 2020 crash. That’s saying something.
Now is an excellent time to be long. Why? Seriously? Ok here’s why:
1) A buy signal.
2) The green trend line on the 2-day chart. Very little coverage of this out there. Look left. If support to target of this idea is confirmed, well…. we’re going to see a blow off top rally like in 2013 and 2017. This is an important trend line.
Is it possible price action falls further? For sure. For last year’s wallet holders no price is low enough.
Is it probable? No.
Good luck!
Ww
Type: Trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: 1-3 months
Return: 60% minimum
2-day chart - that green line
Looking left and zooming out:
Bitcoin to $52k by end of MarchMaybe by March 10th. Yes, 46 days from now.
The number of short ideas on tradingview right now is funtastic. $25k, $20k, $15.. and so on.
Price action could not break $29.8k on July 20th with 2,568,000,000 exchange reserves @ $29.8k it is not going to break $30k with 2,379,000,000 today. A year ago today, Jan 24th 2021: 2,452,000,000 @ $32.3k
I don’t know where the bottom is, but it very close and will be found by mid-Feb at the latest between the above numbers $32.2 to $35k (the orange lines on the above 1-day chart). This is not a place you should be going short.
As for statistics, this one is sickening. Over the last 1-2 weeks almost 80% of selling volume came address created last year. Can you believe that? I don’t know what prices those coins were acquired but it is very likely they were sold at a loss.
To the date and target.
Red boxes:
66 days exactly from the peak price action to the death cross. Both previous and current. Spooky.
Orange boxes:
32 days from the death cross to the breakout, that would mean sideways price action between $34k and $41k between now and February 15th.
From the June death cross price action fell a max of 23% (wick to wick). Just where price action is now, -24% at $34k. It is no coincidence $34.4k and $36k are offering a lot support, look left, right on top of past resistance.
Green boxes:
It took price action 24 days to return to the 0.618 golden ratio as measured from peak to trough (April through June). Now the only assumption made here is the bottom is $34k. If the bottom is $32k it takes $500 off the $52k target. No great shakes.
The sell off over the last several days was drastic, the recovery could be just as quick, like March 2020. Look left. This is the reason for the March 10th date. However should the recovery be elongated as with the summer of 2021; then by end of March.
What will drive the recovery? The end of the stock market correction. There’s an idea about that coming up, keep a look out! Much will depend on what the FED says this coming week during the Tuesday / Wednesday meetings.
Good luck.
WW
$BTC Lower high! Double top! (Inverted)Pair of lower highs here and a double top after a nice run up to the 1.272 on the Bullish dragon breakout!
(Inverted of course)
The idea here is Bitcoin (Inverted) does not look like an asset id be going long on, infact, it looks like a great asset to short.
This is a nice exercise to do when evaluating your bias.
I wouldnt be surprised to get another go at the lows we outlined in previous charts, but time frame is tough here, because while options expiry would suggest we will be over 39k tommorow, there is plenty of time to attack the lows and spring out of the range prior, or run to the highs first and then go for the lows afterwards when the liquidity is released. In either case, there has been no invalidation of the bullish trend, and my bias remains the same until invalid.
Bitcoin Analysis 4/21/22 (Navarro 200 Harmonic Pattern)Bitcoin appears to be forming a Navarro 200 Harmonic Pattern on the 3D chart. The first price target of this pattern is around $10.7k around late September 2022. It's hard to imagine Bitcoin dropping this low but at the same time when Bitcoin was at $69k everybody on YouTube was saying Bitcoin at $60k is cheap. Anything can happen in the Crypto Market. Especially the things we thought were impossible.
BTC until 2025We can see that we are starting a long accumulation process.
We are all bullish on crypto in the long run due to the mass adoption. Nevertheless, we should not forget about the regulation also. This is in many cases hitting the growth.
Hacks are affecting less and less to the general price action. Instead regulation is affecting as well as the natural way of the halving.
Halvings are affecting not just to BTC but to the general growth of the industry.
My analysis comes up from the study of the happenings after the last ATH for each halving cycle, and also what happened before the next halving for each halving cycle.
We can find similarities in the behaviors of BTC by approx. 1 year after the ATH, and by approx. 1 year before the next jump.
I draw a few entries point I hope it helps you to make the perfect entries and set your best targets.
Appreciate the hard work and press like.
Happy trading,
Raf
BTC until 2025We can see that we are starting a long accumulation process.
We are all bullish on crypto in the long run due to the mass adoption. Nevertheless, we should not forget about the regulation also. This is in many cases hitting the growth.
Hacks are affecting less and less to the general price action. Instead regulation is affecting as well as the natural way of the halving.
Halvings are affecting not just to BTC but to the general growth of the industry.
My analysis comes up from the study of the happenings after the last ATH for each halving cycle, and also what happened before the next halving for each halving cycle.
We can find similarities in the behaviors of BTC by approx. 1 year after the ATH, and by approx. 1 year before the next jump.
I draw a few entries point I hope it helps you to make the perfect entries and set your best targets.
Appreciate the hard work and press like.
Happy trading,
Raf