Through the Eyes of the Market Maker V: Bears getting tired?In this report, we will discuss price ranges and forecasts, my general positioning, open interest, and market maker theory. Remember, none of what I say in here is investment advice. Risking money in markets is dangerous and can result in financial loss. Consult your licensed financial professional before making any trades/investments.
Price movement/range/forecast:
BTC has recently seen a nice pump to the mid 5K range. 5800 is the major mid term resistance on the minds of most people in the market and 6K is the psychological resistance and number to cross for retail sentiment.
As per my chart I see the most likely scenario to be a run to 5800 and then a fall to low 4K range. We may also fall to low/mid 4K range to accumulate before a run. ALSO: the MM may still want to push price down below 4K, so we may be in the middle of a distribution. However, the more time we spend above 4K, the more I think we will not revisit the 3K zone. HISTORICALLY, however, BTC does like to revisit it's bottom before running up. What is DIFFERENT than history is the fundamentals behind BTC with much more media attention. I will also refer to my chart later in this article with regard to open interest.
General Positioning:
Full disclosure: Since a fall below 4K is still reasonable and possible, I am slowly re entering the crypto market mostly taking small risks in alts. When we first went to 3K, I did switch to BTC as my base currency (instead of USD) and was a bit more aggressive. Since we are approaching what I believe to be a key resistance, I am now being much more conservative. If we break above 6K and become much more bullish OR if we fall to low 3K range again, I will likely become more aggressive.
Open Interest:
First I will look at open interest from a crypto-centric perspective: Bitfinex. Next, we will review IG Client Sentiment from www.dailyfx.com for a wider market perspective. Citation for IG Client Sentiment will be provided at the end of this report.
Bitfinex Long:Short ratio is Long 55%:Short 45%. I usually take a contrarian point of view in that the Market Makers will look for the largest liquidity pool to fill their bags. However, I am actually leaning towards a short term bullish stance. Much of the space is bullish and thinks we will hit 5800. The TREND for shorts is rising 3.3 times faster than that of the longs (see longs/shorts chart). This tells me MM know that as they raise price, shorts will increase. Also, we are in uncharted territory, so shorts are most likely at 5400 area and stops are not far above that. This tells me that the bears' liquidity pool is likely concentrated just above 5400 and would make nice fuel for the MM to push to 5800. The liquidity pool for the bulls, however, is most likley spread between 5400 and 5800 and the trend is not as robust. This means that despite the longs being 10% more than shorts, the stops/liquidations between 5400 and 5800 are nearly half the potency and thereby much less useful for MM to use. This leads me to believe that it's far more profitable for MM to push long and take profit around 5800 where the long term/key resistance begins. (See chart below)
Daily FX's IG Client Sentiment Analysis (citation at end of article):
IG Client sentiment from Daily FX is ver notable. Historically in this bear market, IG client sentiment views retail Long dominance in with a contrarian lens in that it's a good indicator for a bearish move. They have been pretty accurate in my opinion. in my prior Through the Eyes of the Market Maker reports, IG client sentiment being mixed while Longs are dominant has yielded a decent probability of a rise. In this case, they are actually bullish as per the following quote from their website:
"We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Bitcoin price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long."
Conclusion:
I feel we will most likely head to 5800-6000 range before we head to or below 4K area. Neither direction will likley happen in a straight line. However, BTC is known for wild swings, so a relatively direct route could be in the cards.
Citation:
www.dailyfx.com
Disclaimer:
***Any information represented here is my opinion only and not intended to be used for financial gain. None of the information posted here is to be considered financial advice. Information posted here is strictly for entertainment purposes only. Please consult your financial professional before making any kind of investment. Investments can be very risky and any investor should educate themselves before investing by enlisting the help of a licensed financial professional. Past results are not indicative of future results in any construable way.***
BTCUSDSHORTS trade ideas
BTC Shorts Monitoringi do this to Monitor peoples Shorting BTC to try to identify where they can push up again and make a bear trap.
Shorts broke their up trend.
They stay under Ichimoku Red Snow.
Rejected on EMAs 50 and 100.
following a rude downtrend.
BTC still in a good mod for now.
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTC/USD SHORT Bullish Divergence ?? or Descending Triangle ??i dont to often see btc/usd short chart but in this current time it might be a good idea to have second idea that against majority current market right now, which is bullish..
also the current Macd; seems have positive signal to long. only need a significant buyer volume (or short) to justify good entry to short.
and RSI currently neutral. nothing interesting..
please share your thought what do you think about this idea.
peace
Why you don't short 0-BTCUSDSHORTS/BTCUSDThis reverse and combined index is so without any point at all, mathematically or otherwise. Yet, it brings forth a nice picture of how shorts move similarly to price in this setting. Notice how it made a crazy reversal. Another thing to notice is that the only time it rose and the price stayed relatively fat, was before the drop in November, the market is rigged, its all a scam.
Besides that, the higher this goes, the more valuable short you can try to take. On the other hand, when its ripping like it's been, its a real bad idea to short. Plenty of money to be taken. Traditional renko has a 24 points setting due to BTC corresponding well with indicators set to values between 24-28, just prefer it. Supper guppy flipped in a vicious manner, after a year of unsuccessful attempts.
This one is going higher. We will get 7k BTC and it's going to kill a lot of peoples moods. Enjoy.
Setting alert at new highs on this chart and going to sleep long as fack.
Bitcoin Shorts at Low: Dump Incoming? (Bears Back)When the shorts for BTC get ultra low then that means that the opposite of what the majority think will happen. Instead of going up (low shorts, high longs) it dumps (which we can see in history). What will happen? No one knows but the shorts have been this low for a while now and we are hitting support at the 4100 level...
Seems like the bears are back in town tbqh
BITCOIN the end is approaching...1 month leftHowdy everyone,
I'm just going to jump straight into it here as I cant be bothered to bore you with how it has been a hard 12 months...bla bla
So I'm not sure how many of you out there keep a close eye on the Bitfinex shorts market chart, but I have based a lot of my trades alongside its moves as it gives the insight to market strength or weakness for the bulls.
Now i told my mate a month ago it has broken a strong support line. And i was wondering if it was going to throw a fake-out in our face, but it didn't...& I really have a high sense this Bear era is basically over.
I predict one more move against Bulls this week and next, holding prices tight on coin charts, pulling sum price declines...but around the mid April point I predict this to be a turning point.
Check it out anyway, keep an eye on this. I'm usually really accurate with this stuff so lets see...ADA has popped out from its down slumps. On other fronts some H&S patterns forming, looking for a pullback to complete; LTC & TRON (which i already grabbed with leverage), and rising wedges seem to be the main thing on BTC atm. Stellar is a bargain still! on the back of its IBM announcement... grabbing that one!
Shorts breakdown and backtest wedge LONG BTCShorts positions look like they have broken down from their year long wedge and have backtested it so I would expect them to drop soon, which should be from BTC rising. This indicator can throw fake outs, but breaking down from such a long wedge should be significant.
IF YOU WANNA BE RICH YOU GOTTA BE IN SHORTHello subscribers and traders!
Over the weekend, the situation has not changed.
We are still under strong resistance at the level of $4300-4400. Ideally it would be if a false breakout of resistance was formed, there we would be able to add a short.
Today I present to you for comparison two graphics that clearly indicate when you need to open the short and long, there is no need to be an expert to understand them.
Shorts should be opened when their number is less than 19000 and closed when reaching 38000-40000, since a large number of shorts is a dream for bulls, when closing the short at these levels, you need to slowly open the long.
Me and my followers have already opened a short at the peak at $4200 and now there is our stop loss. In the event that the price will touch resistance, we immediately open new shorts at the level of $4300-4400.
Thank you guys for your likes and subscribe!
BTC Shorts sitting low at demand zone. BEARISH for BTCBTC shorts have continued sinking toward the lows of a daily demand zone, whilst BTC price itself has failed to make much reverse-correlated movement in turn.
This means that the recent BTC trend channel break was a fakeout and BTC is heading to new lows around $3300 within the next month or so.
BTC Shorts LOW - What this really meansBTC Shorts have dropped (indicating that traders expect BTC to increase in value) into an area that for exactly a year now has provided both strong support and a good indicator that BTC is actually about to fall in value.
BTC Shorts went below 21500 only three times last year... in May, July and November - when traders bet that BTC would increase in value. Instead, on all three occasions BTC was just about to experience a substantial drop in value.
May 2018 - BTC at $10000 - falls to $6000 - a drop of $4000 or 40%
July 2018 - BTC at $8500 - falls to $6000 - a drop of $2500 or 30%
Nov 2018 - BTC at $6500 - falls to $3250 - a drop of $3250 or 50%
Feb 2019 - BTC at $4000 - possible fall to $2600 support area - a drop of $1400 or 35%
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting.
This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.