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BTCUSD Shorts

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BTCUSDSHORTS trade ideas

Through the eyes of the Market Maker IIIBTC showing some obvious and not-so-obvious signs of bullisness. Bitgur displays open interest for CME and CBOE traders (citation at end of report). The smaller traders are long while the larger traders are short. This makes sense as the larger traders need more time to enter and exit positions in such a small market, so they are anticipating a later move down. The smaller traders are able to enter/exit positions much more easily, so they see a small move up as having some profit potential while the larger traders need a much larger move to make profit. Overall, this is a good sign that we have some short term bullishness while the overall market is still trending downward. IG client sentiment (over at DailyFX) has some very interesting numbers for the retail trading market as per the quote below (citation at end of this report). They say as follows: "Bitcoin: Retail trader data shows 61.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.63 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 77.9% lower than yesterday and 78.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 49.2% lower than yesterday and 60.0% lower from last week." IG client sentiment generally takes a contrarian point of view (as do I) in that they feel a fall in price will generally be likely while longs are greater than shorts. HOWEVER, the amount of longs vs shorts has more than HALVED. My studies generally look at the second derivative inflection points in rends, so this is arguably a very robust trend to what a contrarian would consider the be a path to overall pending bullishness. AND TO THE CHART: BTC is forming either a bullish pennant or even a potential bullish ascending wedge. I find that ascending wedges are far more dependable than pennants, but either formation does have a probability toward an upside breakout. To the right, we see a dramatic decrease in longs as well as a decrease in shorts. What does this decrease mean? Let's review what a stop hunt is. When a trader goes long, they generally all place their stop losses in the same area below price. The market makers (MM) actually have visibility as to those stops. They have the resources and formulas to know that if they push price down into those stop losses, those "longs/buyers" will now become "market sellers". This means that the market makers can nudge the boulder to the edge of the cliff and the stop losses will gather enough momentum to cause that boulder to fall. Market makers know this and will get short and exit (exits are effectively a buy order) at a given target to which price dips. When the price is supercharged downward by all of those stop losses, the rest of the market will panic sell right into those MM buy orders, who will then move the price around to entice more retail traders to enter more positions and create more stops for them to trigger. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Lambo. Moon. Yachts. The same above process works for shorts as well. Since the stop loss for the shorts is above current price, the MM will nudge the price up high enough to trigger those stops. Those "sellers" will instantly become market "buyers" as their stops are hit and the price is supercharged upward. MM will go long first and exit higher (effectively a market short) and then they will move the price around and build more liquidity in the form of stops created by people entering more positions. As per the chart, we are seeing a drop in both longs and shorts. This is a drop in liquidity. MM can't make money on this, so I am thinking they will have to make a move that injects money into the market OR they will have to be patient and let the market build liquidity on its own. I GUARANTEE whichever way this is done will be the most cost effective. Low volume does give MM the ability to push price around in an inexpensive way. MM like their money and I think they will make a move soon. Probably over the weekend when nobody is looking. The fact that we have such a hard drop in longs means that the retail market is taking profit just below a well established short term resistance. This is smart trading. Bitfinex shows 56% longs vs 43% shorts. This is a notable disparity, but with such a relatively low amount of longs vs shorts, the market may be a little too soft to expect a hard move down based on stop hunting as there are few stops to hunt. So which move would be more cost effective for bringing money into the market? I say "up" although it may not be immediate and could be preceded by a small move down. I am positioned for up and hedged for down at this point. Retail is bullish by the numbers and many think the bottom was in at 3000, so the hopium is strong. IF the MM choose UP, then we would see a push to 4200. If the bulls aren't that interested AND/OR the shorts start to build, the MM may spike the price up and gobble up those shorts. With so many eyes on 4200 as the range high, we could likely see a lot of money coming into the market. My forecast (as per my disclaimer this is for educational purposes only and not intended as any sort of investment advice) is that we run to 4200. MM will see what happens with longs and shorts and will decide from there. If shorts build quikly, I expect to see a puncture of 4200 and the path to 5000. If longs build, I expect to see a retracement to around 3450 area. ***Any information represented here is my opinion only and not intended to be used for financial gain. None of the information posted here is to be considered financial advice. Information posted here is strictly for entertainment purposes only. Please consult your financial professional before making any kind of investment. Investments can be very risky and any investor should educate themselves before investing by enlisting the help of a licensed financial professional. Past results are not indicative of future results in any construable way.***
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSShort
by algocowboy2030
12
Here's What The Bitcoin Shorts Are Telling Us (BTC Shorts)Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! In this analysis, we will be comparing the price action of BTC to the BTC short interest. So, without further ado, let's get right to it! In front of you, I have a comparison of the weekly BTC shorts line chart (in dark grey) to the BTC weekly line chart (in light grey.) As you can see, nearly every time the BTC shorts have formed a deep low (pink circles,) that has corresponded to a trough on the RSI, a selloff has ensued (red arrows.) Currently, we can see that BTC shorts appear to have reached a pivotal low. I have considered that the shorts could continue to drop lower. However, we can see that BTC shorts are on an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows, since the low that was printed on July 23rd. From that point, the shorts printed three consecutive highs, each higher than the last. Then, shorts fell to a higher low on November 5th. After that, we can see that shorts printed yet another higher high, and then plummeted to print what now appears to be another higher low on January 14th. Based on this pattern of higher highs and lows, we can technically assume that shorts are now on the rise. With that said, considering how price has fallen after almost all of the previous examples of this action, there is a technical risk of a selloff, as short interest looks set to print a substantial increase. If you recall from my last BTC analysis, I exposed the extensive technical similarities of the current market condition, to the bottom that was formed during the last bear market. There is definitely an undeniable fractal similarity. However, we should have seen a major rally by now, for the similarities to continue. It's hard to say though, until we begin to exit this tight range that BTC is currently trading in. For your reference, I have attached the BTC price chart comparison below. You can see the range that I'm referring to there, denoted as "Consolidation Period After H&S." On the BTC price chart, we're seeing sharp rejections of rally attempts, and sharp rejections of attempted selloffs. So, there is major indecision in the market right now. As soon as we exit this area, either up or down, the move will be explosive. The shorts are telling us that price is likely to fall from here. The extended consolidation period after the head and shoulders is also telling us that we may be deviating from the fractal pattern in the 2015 bottom. However, BTC still remains inside of the triangle. Unless it breaks down, the fractal bottoming pattern remains intact. Personally, I believe that there will be a another major move to the downside, but that belief is irrelevant until the market confirms it with a breakdown of the triangle. Until that happens, I have to give credence to the notion that we could be bottoming here, particularly if the fractal pattern holds. In summary, shorts are on the rise and price is at a critical juncture. If BTC breaks down from the triangle, shorts would spike, corresponding to the apparent higher low that appears to have been printed on the BTC shorts chart. If the triangle breaks down, the initial target is at the weekly 200 MA (in pink on the attached chart) around 3300, or a double bottom low around 3100. A break below that, would send BTC to the bottom of the downtrend channel, somewhere in the low 2000s. Be smart, be nimble, and watch the data unfold. Good luck trading everyone! I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir. ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*** -JD-
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS
by MagicPoopCannon
57
BTC Shorts indicating a drop may be imminentIt pays to be a contrarian and never is this proved better than the BTC Shorts chart. In most cases, when it peaks into a resistance area shown in blue (and traders are betting that BTC will drop ) BTC rises or at least moves sideways. More telling is when the shorts fall down to a support area shown in pink (and traders are predicting BTC will rise ) ... BTC has tended to begin a violent drop . Essentially more often than not, BTC does the opposite of what the masses are predicting = be a contrarian. BTC is now approaching this support area yet again, IF this plays out as before we can expect a big drop in BTC to be imminent. I would imagine something in the $2500 area to be feasible. At the very least, this is something to be aware of when making your own Technical Analysis. Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSShort
by BCryptological
1
BTC BIG MOVE ?! The "golden" bridge , BITCOIN vs SHORT analysis Bonjour à tous, Voici un fait étonnant sur lequel je suis tombé récemment, en effet nous avons une récurrence sur ce niveau des shorts BTC sur l'exchange BitFinex. A chaque fois que nous oscillons autour de celle-ci avec un volume en perte de vitesse, nous observons un fort mouvement baissier qui s'en suit. Sur le graphique vous pourrez observer en rouge la courbe du bitcoin en bas, et au dessus les shorts ouverts. A suivre ... Hello guys, There is something there you should looking for. BTC volumes are declining, and shorts are on this golden bridge, where something special happened everytime. The line in red at the bottom is the BTC price, at the top you have the shorts. Big move incoming ? To be continued.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS
by Crypto-Matrix
1