Longs Vs. Shorts BTC USD - BitfinexLongs have TOP-ed out.
Shorts have BOTTOM-ed out.
Usually 90% of cases these will go each in opposite direction very soon. As Long-ers are caught up-there since 4xxx$ levels currently are on NEGATIVE. While Shorte-rs are playing the small swings until a good opportunity arises to short after this weak BULL performance.
BTCUSDSHORTS trade ideas
Bitcoin ready for its second leg downAs you can see here, shorts are low and are bound to spike up sharply while the price tanks; likely within the next 1-16 days. We are either going to see a second bottom just over $3000 USD or a rollover into a new low somewhere between $900 and $2000. After this we can look forward to a great trading channel forming while the market prepares for a supper's rally in late 2019 - early 2020.
*clarification: long on the shorts chart, thus short on BTC/USD
when shorts reach a new high (or double top) and then begin to reverse trend with significant momentum, i will open a new position.
BEARS beating-up the BULLSGood morning. Here at BitOoda, we have been BEARISH of BTC and remain of that opinion. $3,600 has been, what we feel, as the key ‘magnet’ level between the range of $3,200 and $4,000. There is a battle between the bulls and bears at this price, and we feel the BEARS could likely prevail. We will consider changing our view if and when there is CAPITULATION in BTC price, which we have not seen to date.
Today we take a look at the short interest in BTC. Above, we can see that short interest on BitFinex peaked on December 7th. Since that day, we have seen this short interest drop roughly 46%. In this same time period, BTC has rallied ~18%. To us, we view this as BEARISH price action. The BEARS in this market are able to buy back their spot without rallying the market, meaning there is a larger amount of selling coming from the weak 'trapped length' and beaten-up BULLS. Any short-term rallies have been failing, and those trying to catch a bottom keep getting diced up. As we have been saying for a while now, in a BEARISH market, one should sell into rallies, and eventually prepare to see BTC test the lows that were made in mid-December once again. Good luck and try not to lose any of your fingers catching a falling knife!
Education - predict market moves with short chartsSelf explanatory but remember 90% of people get it wrong. We should see a drop in about a week or so as shorts are close to a bottom. Barely anyone is shorting. Check the dates where shorts were high and low vrs price action and you will see the time cycle.
bearish for bitcoinShorts have been closing out for awhile and Longs have been going up at an alarming rate. This is a contrarian indicator and shows the next big bout of volatility will most likely be downward. The BTC greed index spiked to 48 yesterday. For reference, since the crash, when the greed index hovers around 50 is usually a selling opportunity.
You can find the BTC fear/Greed index here: alternative.me
Shorts Break Downward Trenline and Head North!The Short Interest is making a move North again. This may be the end of our little bull run... For now! There has been no catalyst for such a Bull Run, to begin, other than master manipulation. I have not had the time to check into the dirty details, but I smell end=of-year manipulation! So what do I think you say? I think we trade sideways to south with little northerly bumps along the way towards my 3k prediction by February! I will become the Charting God if I get that prediction and month correct. If I do, I will release, for free, of course, my sophisticated mathematical algorithm.
BTC Price vs. Short InterestOn Friday last week (12/14) we put together a piece referencing the relationship between BTC price, and Net Shorts. Our conclusion was that when net shorts covered their BTC, they didn’t markedly cause a rally in the Spot price, which to us means that the weak length left in this market was overpowering any bid these shorts put into the market.
Based off of yesterday’s price action, we revisited this chart and took a closer look. It appears that our conclusion from last Friday was an accurate description of the price action for the short covering days of during the 12/14 and 12/21, however the short covering on 12/8-12/9 is more comparable to what happened yesterday. There WAS a rally in Spot price in both of these instances of roughly about 10% from the lows. We do note, that both of these recent short covering rallies were initiated BELOW the $3,300 level so with this in mind, we may have just found ourselves some near-term support. With two bounces from this key level, it would be natural to expect some NEW length come in to buy if we come back off to test the lows.
To the upside? Well, we are in a bear market, and the weak hand is certainly the trapped length, so seeing some selling pressure, specifically around our key level of $3,600, into this rally seems like a logical outcome. What we have seen, as shown on the chart in purple, is that the $3,600 level has flipped from support at the end of November, to resistance here in December. What comes today near that battleground level of $3,600 will be a huge tell. Can the bulls take back this market, or will the bears survive (throw in the towel) and hold this market down?
BTC Price vs. Short InterestOn Friday last week (12/14) we put together a piece referencing the relationship between BTC price, and Net Shorts. Our conclusion was that when net shorts covered their BTC, they didn’t markedly cause a rally in the Spot price, which to us means that the weak length left in this market was overpowering any bid these shorts put into the market.
Based off of yesterday’s price action, we revisited this chart and took a closer look. It appears that our conclusion from last Friday was an accurate description of the price action for the short covering days of during the 12/14 and 12/21, however the short covering on 12/8-12/9 is more comparable to what happened yesterday. There WAS a rally in Spot price in both of these instances of roughly about 10% from the lows. We do note, that both of these recent short covering rallies were initiated BELOW the $3,300 level so with this in mind, we may have just found ourselves some near-term support. With two bounces from this key level, it would be natural to expect some NEW length come in to buy if we come back off to test the lows.
To the upside? Well, we are in a bear market, and the weak hand is certainly the trapped length, so seeing some selling pressure, specifically around our key level of $3,600, into this rally seems like a logical outcome. What we have seen, as shown on the chart in purple, is that the $3,600 level has flipped from support at the end of November, to resistance here in December. What comes today near that battleground level of $3,600 will be a huge tell. Can the bulls take back this market, or will the bears survive (throw in the towel) and hold this market down?