Bitcoin Key $103K Supports Tested, Swing-Bullish Opportunity?__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
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Strong bullish momentum on daily, fueled by the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator and MTFTI structure.
Major supports identified at $102,600 – $103,300, high confluence (4H, 12H, 1D).
Resistances clustered between $106,000 and $110,000 (240 & D Pivot High, W Pivot High).
Volumes generally neutral; no buyer/seller climax.
Directional trends diverge: overall swing remains bullish, short-term intraday still corrective.
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Strategic Summary
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Global Bias: Structured bullish as long as supports >$102,600 are preserved.
Opportunities: Longs on retest of major supports, favoring daily/4H trend-following. Reactive shorts only on rejection at $104,500–$106,000.
Risk zones: Below $102,600 = structure break. Prioritize cash/hedging.
Macro catalysts: Waiting for September FOMC. Monitor geopolitical risks (MENA).
Action plan: Gradual entries on pullbacks, disciplined stops below pivots, prudent sizing outside confirmed breakouts.
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1D & 12H : Bullish trend confirmed by the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator and MTFTI. Major supports intact ($102,600–$103,300). Volumes neutral, market in wait mode. Swing long favored.
6H & 4H : Upward momentum, no significant bearish signals. “Buy the dip” valid above support; healthy structure as long as key levels hold.
2H, 1H : Early micro-divergence signals (MTFTI Down short term), increased caution. Favor entries on confirmed correction or breakout only.
30min, 15min : Intraday correction, neutral/bearish volumes, aggressive long setups discouraged. Scalping only on exhaustion spikes, strict stops.
ISPD DIV summary : No excess/panic, mature consolidation/range context.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator summary : Bullish across all TF except very short-term (>15min neutral).
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Fundamental & On-chain Synthesis
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Fed: status quo, US macro softening, market waiting.
Geopolitical tensions: potential for increased volatility.
On-chain: institutional predominance, low network pressure, no panic selling or retail euphoria.
Off-chain: high derivatives volume, OI > $96B. Squeeze risk if catalyst emerges.
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Decision Matrix – Execution Plan
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Swing Long: Entry $103,200 – $103,800, stop <$102,400, target $107,000+ (RR>2:1)
Scalping Short: On confirmed rejection $104,500 – $106,000, stop >$106,400, target $103,400 (RR>1.5:1)
Strict risk management below major supports, position proactively on volatility/news.
Cash/out below $102,400 or with major geopolitical headlines.
Stay flexible; alternate range-buy/take profit until breakout volume or FOMC news.
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