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Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking PointThe crypto market is flashing a worrying outlook for 2025, since a disappointing Santa Claus rally this year could deepen issues. This is especially important if BTC will not be able to finish the year 2024 firmly above $100'000 per coin. The financial market has had a tough week, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025. The market is on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it's clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting—and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead. The number of stocks in Top Stock Club S&P 500 that are declining outpaced advancing stocks for 14 consecutive days on Thursday. The advancing/declining data helps measure underlying participation in market moves, and the recent weakness signals that even though the S&P 500 is only off 4% from its record high, there's damage under the hood of the benchmark index. This is evidenced by the equal-weighted S&P 500 index being off 7% from its record high. According to Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, the 14-day losing streak for the S&P 500's advance-decline line is the worst since October 15, 1978. Clissold said 10-day losing streaks or more in advancing stocks relative to declining stocks can be a bad omen for future stock market returns. While this scenario has only been triggered six times since 1972, it shows lackluster forward returns for the S&P 500. The index has printed an average six-month forward return of 0.1% after these 10-day breadth losing streaks flashed, compared to the typical 4.5% average gain seen during all periods. "Studies with six cases hardly make for a strategy. But market tops have to start somewhere, and many begin with breadth divergences, or popular averages posting gains with few stocks participating," Clissold said. Perhaps more telling for the stock market is whether it can stage a recovery as it heads into one of the most bullish seasonal periods of the year: the Santa Claus trading window. If it can't, that would be telling, according to Clissold. "A lack of a Santa Claus Rally would be concerning not only from a seasonal perspective, but it would allow breadth divergences to deepen," the strategist said. Also concerning to Clissold is investor sentiment, which has flashed signs of extreme optimism since September. According to the research firm's internal crowd sentiment poll, it is in the seventh-longest stretch in the excessive optimism zone, based on data since 1995. "Several surveys have reached what could be unsustainable levels," Clissold said, warning that any reversal in sentiment could be a warning sign for future market returns. Ultimately, continued stock market weakness, especially in the internals, would suggest to Clissold that 2025 won't be as easy as 2024 for investors. "If the stock market cannot rectify recent breadth divergences in the next few weeks, it would suggest our concerns about a more difficult 2025 could come to fruition," the strategist said. Moreover, Dow Jones index has printed recently The Three Black Crows Bearish candlestick pattern, on weekly basis. This is especially important, since mentioned above pattern is massively unwinding from Dow's all the history highs. Previously this pattern has already appeared in TVC:DJI in November 2021 and lead to 20 percent decline in 2022 for Dow Jones Index and to more than 70 percent decline in BTC. The Three Black Crows Bearish candlestick pattern also has appeared in Dow Jones Index in September, 2018 (lead to 18% decline) and in July, 2007 (lead to more than 50% decline). The main technical graph represents a Choking Strategy for BTC in 2025, i.e. BTC airless scenario below $100'000 choking point. The epic 52-week SMA breakthrough in BTC will definitely accelerate a decline at all.
by Pandorra
Bitcoin, we're testing a correction...Bitcoin, we're testing a correction... Not to scare anyone, testing 3 situations..... on the last developed tool. 1. growth on the last 2 fractal structures is over, so a fall follows and the trend will change, but the older structure allows maximum growth around 118000. 2. a global decline follows around 46/43000 and then 37/36000/ on the current chart. 3. very, very soon we are in for a correction in the 66666 area..... many altcoins will probably make a new low and then a rapid rise - here I am testing a correction following a growth pattern. .... I wrote for the future. ...This is not investment advice. ...If anyone finds my postings useful and wants to thank me, they can always find me in the comments. Disclaimer, the author of this article has not and will not open positions in bitcoins, this article is a way to analyze the price, do not open positions based on the above.
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
Weird Prediction ChannelBITSTAMP:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC Hello Monstralians, Despite ALL market negativity, Bitcoin remains bullish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. After analyzing Bitcoin's movement following the bearish market maker candle ( as discussed in my previous post:) ), it is evident that Bitcoin's bullish trend continues. Note 1: The next bullish mouvement will be slow and could take some time (3 to 4 weeks). Note 2 : I also spotted a formation of a parallel channel which many of you will disagree with me on the drawing but I believe it limits the next BTC mouvement. I am excited to see the precision of my channel. Happy trading !
Long
by Monstralian
Bitcoin What to do and where to run to?Bitcoin What to do and where to run to? Friends, don't forget to click like 🚀 under the idea, it's important. Divergence in trading is a multidirectional movement of the price chart and indicator. On the chart, the price of an asset moves in one direction, while the technical indicator that follows it moves in the opposite direction. Divergence warns that the current price trend may weaken and in some cases may lead to a change in price direction. In this case, we observe a double bearish divergence on the 1D timeframe. This is a powerful correction signal. All traders see it, which will logically lead to fixing positions or opening shorts. What will happen next? Two main scenarios now: 1. Sellers are active and as a consequence - local correction and sideways from current values. 2. Sellers are active, but the market maker is pushing prices higher and removing sellers' stops. This will lead to a triple divergence and will further strengthen the sellers. As a result - a powerful correction and trading at the lower levels. At the moment, both scenarios have equal priority and the decision will be determined by the balance of power in the moment. The scales of the market maker may tip to either side. Write in the comments, what is your mood? Do you want to sell or strong hold?
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
$BTC - Bullish on HTF, Short-term Bearish on LTFWe're still bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC on the higher timeframes as long as we stay above the m_rvwap On the lower timeframes, we saw some sort of distribution forming at the high. We created poor lows with market orders coming in. Pice is right at a key level, and we'll be keeping a close eye on whether there's a solid reaction at the (w_rvwap) . If there is, I'm thinking we'll see a short-term bounce, testing the previous value area around 105.6k. Failure to reclaim previous value area, we're likely roll over to 102k-101k zone.
by Tealstreet
A small move up and a drop for BitcoinHi traders, Last week Bitcoin made a new ATH and dropped. Now wave 5 could be finished and we could see a bigger correction down. Wait for price come into the higher Daily FVG. From there it could drop to the lower Weekly FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for price come into the higher Daily FVG and make a change in orderflow to bearish, After that you could trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading ICT concepts with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost or respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
Bitcoin 15m ChartHello Dear traders, Let's dive into the Bitcoin chart with a detailed Gann analysis for short term levels. This chart integrates Gann theory, showing price and time levels via angles, grids, and cycles. 📊1. Gann Grid and Levels Overview The chart uses Gann's principle of balancing price and time with geometric relationships: Horizontal Levels: Derived from specific price harmonics (0°, 90°, 180°, etc.) Diagonal Lines: Represent price momentum at certain angles regarding time and price by the grid. 2. Key Gann Levels The chart originates from 0° (Base level: $108k) and builds Downward. Most Important levels: 105100 101900 95615 92548 89531 83647 3- Important time Levels Vertical Lines: Time cycles marking significant trend shifts or price reversals.
by Magic_xD
btc usdt short Trend Analysis: The overall structure indicates a bearish trend, confirmed by lower highs and lower lows. This supports the rationale for entering a short position. Entry Point: The short entry was initiated after a significant price drop, followed by a pullback that failed to break above a previous support zone, now acting as resistance. This resistance was confirmed by the bearish reaction at that level. Stop-Loss Placement: The stop-loss for this trade is set at 102,260 USDT, above the resistance level and previous consolidation area. This placement helps manage risk by protecting against unexpected upward price movements. Take-Profit Target: The take-profit target is set at 82,524 USDT, aligning with a key support zone from a prior swing low. This target captures a significant potential move, with the trade offering a high risk/reward ratio of approximately 15.88. Risk/Reward Ratio: The risk/reward ratio of 15.88 indicates an attractive trade setup where the potential profit significantly outweighs the risk involved. This ratio reflects disciplined risk management.
Short
by ltmode