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[BTC] 2025.04.18Greetings. It’s a pleasure to reconnect with you. Before diving into altcoin analysis, we believe it is essential to first address Bitcoin, as it remains the key driver in determining the overall market direction. Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has been in a prolonged consolidation phase accompanied by a downward trend. In an effort to identify a potential bottom for this correction, we have closely monitored the market over the past three months. Initially, our team identified the period around March 10 as a likely inflection point for a bullish reversal and prepared a related analysis idea. However, we refrained from publishing it, as the movements of key altcoins—which typically serve as leading indicators—did not align with our internal criteria. As anticipated, the market went on to form another low. We now believe that April 7 marked not just a temporary bounce, but a potential structural pivot point in the broader trend. The rationale behind this assessment is outlined in detail below. We appreciate your time and hope you find the insights valuable. We believe the logical starting point is to examine the key highs that have formed during this cycle. Among the two major peaks—referred to here as “Point 1” and “Point 2”—it is critical to determine which marks the termination of the fifth wave. This distinction plays a pivotal role in accurately interpreting the subsequent wave structure. If Point 1 is the conclusion of the fifth wave, then Point 2 can be naturally understood as the terminal point of a corrective B wave. Conversely, if Point 2 represents the end of the fifth wave, then the decline that followed is likely the beginning of a corrective A wave. To validate this, we conducted a detailed analysis based on Fibonacci retracement and extension ratios. The results showed that Point 2 did not align well with any major wave theory frameworks. Its price structure and time proportion appeared incomplete and inconsistent. In contrast, Point 1 exhibited a high degree of confluence with multiple classical wave theories, including Glenn Neely’s NEoWave principles. Structurally, it demonstrated the typical characteristics of a completed five-wave advance. Based on this evidence, we conclude that Point 1 is the more valid candidate for the fifth wave termination. Consequently, we believe any analysis of the current market structure should build upon this interpretation. To further clarify the interpretation of the key peak, we present two possible scenarios using Fibonacci ratios as the analytical foundation. These scenarios are illustrated as the red path and the blue path, each representing a different wave development depending on the subsequent market movement. However, the key takeaway is that both scenarios converge on a single conclusion: “Point 1” marks the completion of a full wave cycle, and can thus be identified as the termination point of the fifth wave. While the detailed wave progression may evolve depending on how the market unfolds, recognizing that a major top has already been established is essential for shaping any mid-to-long-term strategy. This structural understanding serves as a critical anchor in the broader market outlook. Having previously identified “Point 2” as the likely termination of the B wave, our current focus shifts to pinpointing the end of the C wave— in other words, the optimal buying zone within the corrective structure. Our team initially regarded the period around March 10 as a strong candidate for the conclusion of the C wave. However, due to insufficient synchronicity across the broader market— particularly the lack of confirmation from key altcoins— we concluded that this point did not represent a genuine inflection. ※ Our analysis is based not on individual coins but on a comprehensive structural assessment of the overall market. As a result, we extended our observation period. A clear and confident reversal signal was finally detected around April 7. In hindsight, the March 10 low proved to be a false bottom, marked only by a temporary rebound, whereas the true structural pivot materialized in early April. With this in mind, we believe the market is now entering a phase where a full wave reversal is plausible, and it is time to begin formulating a strategic entry plan in alignment with this outlook. Now, let us evaluate whether the second low (April 7) qualifies as the true termination point of the C wave. From a technical standpoint, the preceding decline exhibits the hallmarks of an Ending Diagonal— a classic pattern frequently observed at the conclusion of C waves. This structure serves as a strong technical signal that the wave sequence is entering its final stage, indicating not just a temporary rebound, but the potential for a structural trend reversal. Considering both the wave characteristics and the timing context, we believe there is sufficient evidence to regard the April 7 low not merely as a short-term bottom, but as the culmination of the C wave—and more importantly, the starting point of a major reversal in the broader trend. Finally, to further reinforce the technical foundation of our analysis, we turn to harmonic pattern analysis. By applying a range of Fibonacci ratios between the start and termination of the B wave, we have identified a remarkably precise Deep Crab pattern— one of the most powerful reversal signals among all harmonic structures. Notably, the current price action has landed directly within the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone), strongly suggesting that the timing for a strategic long position is ripe. In summary, we now have a confluence of three compelling signals: A clear Ending Diagonal structure at the tail end of the C wave, A significant inflection point formed around April 7, And a textbook Deep Crab harmonic pattern confirming the reversal zone. These three elements align cohesively to provide a well-founded justification for initiating long exposure. There is no longer a reason for hesitation. Assuming appropriate risk management is in place, we believe this is a moment to enter with confidence. Thank you sincerely for reading this analysis in full. We will continue to provide high-quality, data-driven market insights, rooted in both structural depth and technical precision. If our perspective resonates with your approach to the market, we warmly invite you to follow our work and stay connected. Your support and engagement are what fuel our continued efforts. See you in the next idea.
Long
by SeoVereign
DeGRAM | BTCUSD Holds the Support Line📊 Technical Analysis Price has broken the long‑term down‑trend and flipped the 84‑85 k supply zone into support; holding >83 k unlocks 92 k then 100 k. 💡 Fundamental Analysis BlackRock’s IBIT pulled in $186 M net inflows last week. Spot‑ETF flows remain positive, even at 2025’s weekly low. MicroStrategy bought 6 556 BTC at $84.8 k, giving 13 k+ institutions indirect exposure. Network hashrate hit a record >920 EH/s and topped 1 124 EH/s earlier this month. ✨ Summary A confirmed breakout, resilient ETF demand, corporate accumulation and record network strength align for a push toward 92–100 k. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
5
Bitcoin Topped in January? Here’s Why That’s Not Crazy.The move BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P from November 2022 looks like a textbook impulse. The third wave extended perfectly to 1.618 of wave one — a classic sign of strength. But here’s the big question: Did the impulse already end in January 2025? If yes, we’re looking at a nearly ideal structure: 🔹 Wave 3 — extended to 1.618 🔹 Wave 5 ≈ Wave 1 (typical after an extended 3rd) 🔹 Fib zone 0.382–0.618 of wave 0–3 — perfectly hit 🔹 Sentiment — peak euphoria in January: BTC in national reserves, mass media hype 🔹 Volume spike — a sign of potential distribution at the top 📌 Possible scenarios: 1️⃣ The impulse is complete, and we’re already in a corrective phase — even if the market doesn’t realize it yet 2️⃣ A terminal diagonal is forming — ATH hasn’t been printed yet, but we’re likely close 3️⃣ A 5th wave extension — still possible, but less likely given current global liquidity and macro headwinds (trade war environment) 📊 Watch the 200-dayMA: Historically, Bitcoin tends to stay below it for about 2 months during bull cycles. That clock is ticking — the next few weeks may reveal the market’s true direction. 📈 A strong weekly close above $95K would sharply raise the odds of a new ATH. Until then — monitor the local structure and wait for clarity.
by shakatrade1_618
Bitcoin crash back to $74,000I hope the chart is self explanatory as don't want to make this long. I added some trendlines for the visual learners. Bitcoin did not meets its monthly correction target of $74000, we pump right before...Its not very wise to buy randomly- You want to buy at a key level for higher probability...If the bull run ought to continue. Don't you think for such a big move its more likely to react from important key levels where most the demand is waiting? 2ndly the weekly tf is still bearish. We flipped bullish on daily but price is high and struggling to clear 85k. 4hr already flipped back bearish. Next point is that there is still a lot of uncertainty around tariffs, while market is not reacting to tariffs news as strongly as it did before its still factor of uncertainty. An important factor Next point. In yesterdays Speech by Jerome powell he clearly stated that inflation likely to rise due to tariffs he also clearly stated they not ready to jump in and 'save the stock market' And he said they not looking to make any adjustments to interest rates at the moment. They still playing it cautious-waiting on more data. For me the likely bottom signal when it comes to fundamental will be the lowering of interest rates. On the bullish side, gold been making ATHs on a regular now and many are starting to speculate that bitcoin is next...that's a possibility but so far we haven't seen any strong sign of that narrative playing out in the chart. I think this is 1 final trap before the actual continuation of the bull-run. For invalidation -I would like to see a very clear breakout out on the day and weekly closing above 89k with volume confirmation. I called bitcoin top from December of last year with target of $74000. And its still in effect. Now, let's see if am right again. I believe I am.
Short
by Filnft
1
Is the Market Setting You Up? My BTC Manipulation TheoryEveryone’s hyped about BTC’s run — but is this rally legit, or just another carefully staged trap? Let’s break it down… BTC, as well as other cryptocurrencies, have been performing well lately — but the big question remains: “Is this manipulation?” Well, here’s my take. Whenever a piece of news drops — whether it’s from regulators, governments, or financial figures — it affects crypto prices, positively or negatively. The Trump and Fed saga might be playing a part here, but I believe our collective participation has also fueled the price movement. Now with institutions stepping into our space, there’s a new problem. Now to business. On the chart, I’ve outlined key routes and zones from the weekly down to the 4H timeframe to help answer this question. On the weekly timeframe, BTC fought hard and bounced off an area of imbalance. During this HTF rebalancing, it created a strong sell-side liquidity area on the 4H timeframe. There was also a period of consolidation — which shouldn’t be ignored, because it holds clues to our big question. After this accumulation phase (which happens on all zones, because time is fractal), BTC took liquidity to the upside — making what I believe is a manipulative move. Now, on the 4H chart, you’ll notice a sort of rebalance happening. It’ll most likely drop down to the TSE:RE zone I marked, to hit stop-losses set by the bulls, tricking people into thinking we’ve gone bearish — only to trap them again before distribution occurs (you might lose it at this point, lol). So — we’ve identified potential market manipulation. If this theory holds, where might distribution take place? I’ve marked out possible areas, and it’s most likely within the $93k - $99k region. Why? These zones hold a significant chunk of pending orders. BTC hitting $99k will get everyone thinking the bears are finished — perfect for a trap. NB: Don’t expect this all to happen in a day or a week… lol. Disclaimer: This isn’t financial advice — just my observation. Hope it was easy enough to follow. LEAVE A FOLLOW AND A BOOST!
by earthtraderx
BITCOINPresident Donald Trump's repeated public calls for immediate and preemptive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have had a notable bullish impact on Bitcoin buyers in April 2025. His criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for maintaining higher rates amid easing inflation and his threats to remove Powell have injected significant uncertainty into traditional markets, which has driven investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. Shift in Market Sentiment: Trump's aggressive stance against the Fed and calls for rate cuts have fueled expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy, which typically boosts liquidity and risk appetite. This environment encourages investors to allocate more capital to risk assets, including Bitcoin, seen increasingly as a "digital gold" hedge amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Safe-Haven Appeal Amid Market Volatility: As equity markets plunged due to trade war fears and political tensions, Bitcoin maintained resilience, benefiting from a flight to alternative stores of value alongside gold, which also rallied to record highs. Speculative and Institutional Positioning: Both retail traders and institutional investors have been positioning for a potential Fed easing cycle, driving accumulation in Bitcoin ahead of anticipated rate cuts. In essence, Trump’s rate cut rhetoric has energized Bitcoin buyers by raising expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy and increased liquidity, which historically supports higher crypto prices. This has translated into a rapid price rebound, higher trading volumes, and sustained bullish momentum in the Bitcoin market.
by Shavyfxhub
BTC/USDT Analysis – Confirmed Bullish Trend Hello everyone! This is CryptoRobotics' trader-analyst with your daily market analysis. Yesterday, Bitcoin continued accumulating around our marked level of $87,000 without dropping below it. Today, we broke the key high of $88,800 and are now seeing a surge in volume. Our main scenario remains a continuation of the uptrend toward the next sell zone or until we encounter abnormally strong market or limit sell pressure (a sharp volume spike followed by a failure to hold above, or a technical trend break). At this stage, it's important to secure a position above $90,500 — in that case, the current volume spike may act as support, providing a good opportunity to join the long side. If not, we expect a return to the $88,000 area. Sell Zones: $95,000–$96,700 (accumulated volume), $97,500–$98,400 (initiative pushing volumes), $107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies). Buy Zones: $90,300–$89,500 (potential pushing volume zone), $88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market selling), $85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volume), $82,700–$81,400 (high-volume area), Level at $74,800, $69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volume). This publication is not financial advice.
Long
by Crypto_robotics
1
Failed Breakout + Rising Wedge = Bearish Signal for Bitcoin!?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) attacked the Resistance zone ($87,520-$85,840) and the important Resistance line as I expected in yesterday's idea , but it seems that it failed to break . Bitcoin is moving between two Support and Resistance zones . From a Classic Technical Analysis , Bitcoin appears to have formed a Rising Wedge Pattern . From an Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin appears to have completed a main wave 5 on the 1-hour time frame . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . If we look at the Bitcoin chart in the 4-hour timeframe , a Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern with high volume is clearly visible near the Resistance zone ($87,520-$85,840 ), which could signal a reversal and decline in Bitcoin . I expect Bitcoin to start declining again after an upward correction and break the lower line of the rising wedge pattern , and reach the targets I have indicated on the chart. Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $87,708-$86,487 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $84,520-$83,687 Do you think Bitcoin can finally break the important resistance line? I would like to hear your thoughts. Note: If Bitcoin breaks above the Resistance zone ($87,520-$85,840), we can expect a pump. Note: If Bitcoin falls below $81,000, we can expect further declines. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
12
Bitcoin Lower High Continues ?Bitcoin saw a burst of upside momentum earlier this week, but it may be more of a reaction than a reversal. The move came after a breakout from a short-term range, yet it hasn’t managed to shift the broader trend. The latest push topped out at $88,465, just under the previous key high, failing to signal a true change in direction. Key Points: The high at $88,465 wasn’t enough to break the bearish market structure. Potential downside targets include $74,500 and possibly $67,850 if weakness continues. Price action is still printing lower highs, and unless a strong breakout clears $88,500 with momentum, sellers are likely to maintain control. A deeper pullback remains a strong possibility, especially if lower support levels are tested and fail to hold. Overall, trend continuation to the downside remains the dominant scenario until proven otherwise.
Short
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
Bitcoin will return to $100,000!Bitcoin has broken above the $91,000 zone, just as we anticipated. On-Chain Insights: • Long-Term Holders: Mild distribution — profit-taking phase • Network Activity: Steady — strong and healthy • Sentiment: Bullish — weak USD and rising institutional inflows Macro Overview: • U.S.–China tensions and Fed uncertainty boost Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal • Institutions are steadily increasing exposure — a strong positive signal
Long
by Abbas_GoatEon
1
What will bitcoin do next! Free money ticket!Tuesday Trading Update 🎯 In today’s video, we dive into the higher time frame analysis of Bitcoin. We’re breaking down key live levels and the ongoing price action narrative. We’ve seen a solid 3-tap Trinity Model play out on the lows, tapping into a 2H demand zone—a move that’s giving us the conviction for a bullish structure break. Right now, I’m watching for a potential retracement to confirm support before a bullish continuation targeting the $95K zone. 🚀 Follow for more insights and stay ahead of the move!
Long
by Trade-Journal
BITCOIN - Short trade Price Action Update - Wave 2 Done...In this video, I break down the smaller-degree waves near the recent highs and explore the possibility that a minor Wave 2 has completed. If that's the case, we could see a reversal from here, provided price stays below 88,876. Wave E has been unusually complex and aggressive, but I believe I now have a clear understanding of where we are in the overall structure. This clarity is key as we look toward the 74,517 target in a Wave (C) of Wave B decline. The critical resistance level remains at 88,876, and a break below 87,997 and 87,513 would offer further confirmation that the reversal is underway.
Short
by AriasWave
RSI-Volume Momentum Signal Score: Trading the Momentum PressureThe indicator used in this chart is an updated version of the RSI-Volume Momentum Score. The RSI-Volume Momentum Signal Score is a predictive technical indicator designed to identify bullish and bearish momentum shifts by combining volume-based momentum with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It generates a Signal Score derived from: • The divergence between short-term and long-term volume (Volume Oscillator), and • RSI positioning relative to a user-defined threshold. The Signal Score is calculated as follows: Signal Score = tanh((vo - voThreshold) / scalingFactor) * ((rsiThreshold - rsi) / scalingFactor) The logic of this formula are as follows: • If Volume Oscillator >= Volume Threshold and RSI <= RSI Threshold: Bullish Signal (+1 x Scaling Factor) • If Volume Oscillator >= Volume Threshold and RSI >= (100 – RSI Threshold): Bearish Signal (-1 x Scaling Factor) • Otherwise: Neutral (0) The tanh function provides the normalization process. It ensures that the final signal score is bounded between -1 and 1, increases sensitivity to early changes in volume patterns based on RSI conditions, and prevent sudden jumps in signals ensuring smooth and continuous signal line. This updated version Introduces colored columns (green and red bars) representing momentum pressure directly. These bars: o Green bars represent bullish pressure when the signal score is +1. o Red bars represent bearish pressure when the signal score is -1. o The transition point from one color to another acts as a visual signal of momentum reversal. LONG SIGNAL: A transition from green bar to red bar indicates that bullish pressure has reached a tipping point—price is likely to rise soon. SHORT SIGNAL: A transition from red bar to green bar signals bearish pressure is peaking—potential price drop ahead. These transitions become intuitive signals for bullish or bearish entries, depending on the context.
Education
by DexterMGarcia
2