Wyckoff Distribution Unfolding: UTAD Confirmed, LPSY In ProgressThe 4H BTC/USDT chart presents a textbook Wyckoff Distribution structure nearing completion:
• Buying Climax (BC) defined the supply ceiling
• Secondary Test (ST) confirmed resistance zone
• Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) swept above 106K, trapping late breakout buyers
• Price is now back at triangle support, potentially forming Last Point of Supply (LPSY)
Technical Snapshot (4H):
• Current Price: 102,540
• Bollinger Bands:
▸ Upper: 105,400
▸ Basis: 103,522
▸ Lower: 101,884
• 55 SMA: 103,642
• RSI: 44.85 (bearish momentum)
• Volume: Red bars rising, above 23.7K MA
What to Watch For:
A confirmed close below the triangle apex and lower Bollinger Band, with RSI below 45 and increased volume, would solidify the LPSY and trigger a likely markdown phase. Until then, the structure remains vulnerable but unconfirmed.
Bearish Targets (if breakdown confirms):
• TP1: 100,678 (horizontal + psychological)
• TP2: 99,595–98,115 (Fib retracement zone)
• TP3: Trail below breakdown with 1% callback logic
Wyckoff Perspective:
This appears to be Phase C, following a clear UTAD. If LPSY forms and support breaks, the market transitions into Phase D with accelerated markdown potential. Holding here may imply range extension or reaccumulation — next 1–2 candles are pivotal.
