[BTC] 2025.04.18Greetings. It’s a pleasure to reconnect with you.
Before diving into altcoin analysis, we believe it is essential to first address Bitcoin, as it remains the key driver in determining the overall market direction.
Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has been in a prolonged consolidation phase accompanied by a downward trend. In an effort to identify a potential bottom for this correction, we have closely monitored the market over the past three months.
Initially, our team identified the period around March 10 as a likely inflection point for a bullish reversal and prepared a related analysis idea. However, we refrained from publishing it, as the movements of key altcoins—which typically serve as leading indicators—did not align with our internal criteria.
As anticipated, the market went on to form another low. We now believe that April 7 marked not just a temporary bounce, but a potential structural pivot point in the broader trend.
The rationale behind this assessment is outlined in detail below. We appreciate your time and hope you find the insights valuable.
We believe the logical starting point is to examine the key highs that have formed during this cycle.
Among the two major peaks—referred to here as “Point 1” and “Point 2”—it is critical to determine which marks the termination of the fifth wave. This distinction plays a pivotal role in accurately interpreting the subsequent wave structure.
If Point 1 is the conclusion of the fifth wave, then Point 2 can be naturally understood as the terminal point of a corrective B wave.
Conversely, if Point 2 represents the end of the fifth wave, then the decline that followed is likely the beginning of a corrective A wave.
To validate this, we conducted a detailed analysis based on Fibonacci retracement and extension ratios. The results showed that Point 2 did not align well with any major wave theory frameworks. Its price structure and time proportion appeared incomplete and inconsistent.
In contrast, Point 1 exhibited a high degree of confluence with multiple classical wave theories, including Glenn Neely’s NEoWave principles. Structurally, it demonstrated the typical characteristics of a completed five-wave advance.
Based on this evidence, we conclude that Point 1 is the more valid candidate for the fifth wave termination. Consequently, we believe any analysis of the current market structure should build upon this interpretation.
To further clarify the interpretation of the key peak,
we present two possible scenarios using Fibonacci ratios as the analytical foundation.
These scenarios are illustrated as the red path and the blue path,
each representing a different wave development depending on the subsequent market movement.
However, the key takeaway is that both scenarios converge on a single conclusion:
“Point 1” marks the completion of a full wave cycle,
and can thus be identified as the termination point of the fifth wave.
While the detailed wave progression may evolve depending on how the market unfolds,
recognizing that a major top has already been established is essential for shaping any mid-to-long-term strategy.
This structural understanding serves as a critical anchor in the broader market outlook.
Having previously identified “Point 2” as the likely termination of the B wave,
our current focus shifts to pinpointing the end of the C wave—
in other words, the optimal buying zone within the corrective structure.
Our team initially regarded the period around March 10 as a strong candidate for the conclusion of the C wave.
However, due to insufficient synchronicity across the broader market—
particularly the lack of confirmation from key altcoins—
we concluded that this point did not represent a genuine inflection.
※ Our analysis is based not on individual coins but on a comprehensive structural assessment of the overall market.
As a result, we extended our observation period.
A clear and confident reversal signal was finally detected around April 7.
In hindsight, the March 10 low proved to be a false bottom, marked only by a temporary rebound,
whereas the true structural pivot materialized in early April.
With this in mind, we believe the market is now entering a phase where a full wave reversal is plausible,
and it is time to begin formulating a strategic entry plan in alignment with this outlook.
Now, let us evaluate whether the second low (April 7)
qualifies as the true termination point of the C wave.
From a technical standpoint, the preceding decline exhibits the hallmarks of an Ending Diagonal—
a classic pattern frequently observed at the conclusion of C waves.
This structure serves as a strong technical signal that the wave sequence is entering its final stage,
indicating not just a temporary rebound, but the potential for a structural trend reversal.
Considering both the wave characteristics and the timing context,
we believe there is sufficient evidence to regard the April 7 low not merely as a short-term bottom,
but as the culmination of the C wave—and more importantly, the starting point of a major reversal in the broader trend.
Finally, to further reinforce the technical foundation of our analysis,
we turn to harmonic pattern analysis.
By applying a range of Fibonacci ratios between the start and termination of the B wave,
we have identified a remarkably precise Deep Crab pattern—
one of the most powerful reversal signals among all harmonic structures.
Notably, the current price action has landed directly within the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone),
strongly suggesting that the timing for a strategic long position is ripe.
In summary, we now have a confluence of three compelling signals:
A clear Ending Diagonal structure at the tail end of the C wave,
A significant inflection point formed around April 7,
And a textbook Deep Crab harmonic pattern confirming the reversal zone.
These three elements align cohesively to provide a well-founded justification for initiating long exposure.
There is no longer a reason for hesitation.
Assuming appropriate risk management is in place,
we believe this is a moment to enter with confidence.
Thank you sincerely for reading this analysis in full.
We will continue to provide high-quality, data-driven market insights,
rooted in both structural depth and technical precision.
If our perspective resonates with your approach to the market,
we warmly invite you to follow our work and stay connected.
Your support and engagement are what fuel our continued efforts.
See you in the next idea.
BTCUSDT trade ideas
SHORT ALERT BITCOINI’ve opened a massive short on #Bitcoin at $104,279.21, aiming for a take‑profit at $93,400.21.
Here’s the kicker: retail traders are sitting on over $2 BILLION in highly‑leveraged long positions. When the squeeze hits, that stacked leverage could unravel fast—and that’s exactly the wave I’m riding.
Entry: $104,279.21
Target: $93,400.21
Thesis: Retail longs ≈ $2 B in leverage → potential cascade of liquidations
#Risky? Absolutely. But fortune favors the bold. Let’s see how deep this retrace goes. Stay sharp.
Bitcoin - $100k retest before new ATH?Bitcoin has broken out of its 1-hour ascending channel with a sharp bearish displacement, ending the slow grind higher that had been in place since the 9th of May. That channel served as a controlled environment for accumulation and small trend continuation, but the move we just saw confirms that the phase of balance has shifted into a clear retracement. The displacement candle was strong, clean, and aggressive, closing well outside the lower boundary of the channel and taking out multiple internal lows in the process. This wasn’t a weak break, it showed intent.
From a market structure standpoint, this confirms that short-term control has shifted to the downside. That move also left behind a visible Fair Value Gap just above current price, which is likely to act as a draw in the coming sessions. Unless that FVG gets reclaimed impulsively, this looks like the beginning of a deeper retracement.
Consolidation Structure
Prior to the break, BTC was building liquidity inside a clean ascending channel. The highs kept getting swept by small wicks, which hints at repeated inducement and short-term stop hunts. The final push into the top of the channel marked the last bullish attempt, and price immediately reversed after that sweep. The moment it broke structure with a high-volume bearish candle, the entire channel was invalidated and turned into supply.
We now have a clean CISD framework in play, price consolidated inside a channel, created inducement near the highs, triggered a stop hunt into the upper end of the range, and then dropped with strong displacement. That displacement not only broke structure but also left behind an imbalance that has yet to be filled.
Bullish/Bearish Scenarios
Right now, the short-term bias is bearish. The break of structure is confirmed, the Fair Value Gap is still open, and there is a clear inefficiency left behind. I expect price to revisit that gap and then reject to the downside again. That would complete the FVG retest leg and open the door for a move into deeper zones.
The next key area of interest is around the $100,000 mark, slightly below the current trading range. That level holds both technical and psychological weight. It lines up with a previous breakout zone, an unfilled imbalance, and likely a large pool of resting liquidity from retail long stops and institutional bids. If we reach that zone, I’ll be watching for signs of strength to suggest that this pullback was a liquidity grab before the next leg up.
If we do get that tap into $100K and price responds with bullish displacement from there, the bullish narrative would be back in play. That could easily form the base for a new impulse toward all-time highs. However, if $100K fails to hold and price pushes through without a significant reaction, then we’re dealing with a larger correction, and I’d expect continuation toward lower inefficiencies.
Price Target and Expectations
First, I expect a small leg up to fill the Fair Value Gap inside the broken channel structure. That area will act as the first test, and if price shows rejection there, I’m looking for continuation toward the $100,000 to $99,500 region. That zone aligns with a clean 1H imbalance and marks the origin of the last strong bullish expansion.
If BTC taps into that deeper imbalance and confirms a reversal with clear bullish intent, the stage will be set for a potential breakout into new all-time highs. That’s where I would expect stronger hands to step in and take control. The longer price holds above that $99k zone, the higher the odds we break past the previous high.
But if there’s no reaction and price bleeds through $99K, the bullish structure on the higher timeframes would be compromised, and the move could extend toward the mid-$90K range.
Current Stance
Short-term bearish, waiting for price to retest the FVG inside the previous channel. That will be the first key area where I expect a reaction. If the rejection confirms, I’ll be watching for signs of continuation into $100K.
Not interested in chasing price between levels. I’ll either look to short the FVG retest with confirmation or wait for the deeper tap into the $100K zone to look for a long setup. No trades in the middle, only acting at the extremes where the risk-reward makes sense.
Conclusion
This setup fits cleanly into a classic displacement narrative. Bitcoin broke out of structure with a high-volume move, left behind an FVG, and is now likely preparing for a short retrace before continuing lower. The $100K zone is the main area to watch — that’s where the next high-probability trade opportunity is likely to develop. If bulls defend that zone and we get bullish confirmation, the path to new highs is still intact. But if $99K fails, I’ll be sidelined and looking for the next major level.
The structure is clear, the inefficiencies are visible, and the plan is defined. Now it’s just about waiting for price to do its job.
___________________________________
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SHORT on BITCOINBitcoin has completed its 5-wave Elliott Wave structure, and the highest-probability scenario now points to a 3-wave ABC correction before resuming its upward trajectory toward new all-time highs near 120,000. The initial wave (Wave A) is expected to target 120,000. The initial wave AeA) is expected to target 93,000, driven by bearish RSI divergences and oversold conditions. At the same time, the final wave (Wave C) could extend to 84,000.Theselevels(84,000.These levels (93K/$84K) act as technical magnets due to concentrated liquidity from pending sell orders and institutional liquidation clusters embedded in the market’s order book. The downward pressure is further amplified by the alignment of market structure dynamics, where these zones serve as focal points for price discovery and liquidity-driven retracements.
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Technical Analysis – May 13, 2025 | 17:30 UTC🔍 Market Context
Bitcoin continues to exhibit structural bullish behavior, supported by macro-level demand and reduced circulating supply. However, recent momentum indicators signal a possible short-term exhaustion.
📊 Technical Overview (4H Chart)
🔧 Chart Parameters
Timeframe: 4H
Tools Used: Fibonacci Retracement, Volume Profile, Ichimoku Cloud, Pivot Points, RSI, MACD
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
(May 12 Low $101,206 → May 13 High $103,267)
0.236: $102,845
0.382: $102,420
0.5: $102,236
0.618: $102,052
🔹 Pivot Points (Classic)
S3: $101,580
S2: $102,110
S1: $102,650
Pivot: $103,010
R1: $103,550
R2: $103,990
R3: $104,420
🔹 Volume Profile
Weak participation above $103,000, indicating potential resistance and lack of buyer commitment at higher levels.
🔹 Ichimoku Cloud
Price remains above the cloud, maintaining a bullish bias.
Tenkan/Kijun convergence signals possible consolidation in the short term.
📈 Key Price Zones
Support to Watch:
$102,052 (0.618 Fib) – Critical level for bull structure to hold.
$101,206 – Previous swing low; breakdown may trigger broader correction.
Resistance to Watch:
$103,550 (R1) – Major breakout point.
$105,819 – All-time high, if momentum accelerates.
Order Flow: Block buying activity detected between $101,500–$102,000 (potential accumulation)
📉 Summary
Bitcoin is range-bound between $102,000–$103,500 ahead of key macro events.
Breakout Confirmation: Above $103,550 → Targets $105K+
Breakdown Signal: Below $102,000 → Opens path to retest $101,206
⚠️ Always use proper risk management. Backtest every scenario. No guarantees in live markets.
#BTC Long Setup Idea – Watching Monday's LowPlan:
Will look to enter a long position if BTC sweeps Monday’s low and reclaims above with strong confirmation.
Reasoning:
• Liquidity grab below Monday’s low
• Potential bullish reversal after sweep
• Waiting for confirmation to avoid fakeouts
⚠️ Risk & Disclaimer:
• No entry without confirmation
• Use proper risk management
• Not Financial Advice – DYOR
• Trade according to your own strategy
How to use Dynamic Market Structure to track market moves🔍 Idea Overview
This chart demonstrates the effectiveness of the Dynamic Market Structure Indicator in live conditions, capturing key Break of Structure (BoS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) points. Each zone dynamically adapts based on price behavior and helps identify crucial turning points.
📌 Highlights from the Chart
• ✅ Early BoS detection led to accurate identification of the bullish breakout before the major rally starting May 7.
• ✅ Multiple successful ChoCH zones indicated potential reversal areas and pause zones during sideways consolidation.
• ✅ The green (BoS) and red (ChoCH) horizontal zones aligned perfectly with price reaction levels, acting as reliable support/resistance.
• ✅ During the pullback post-high, the indicator caught clear bearish ChoCH before price dropped nearly $2,000, showing high responsiveness.
📊 Summary of Performance
• Rally captured from ~95,000 to ~104,000 with early BoS signals.
• Sideways zones around 103,000–104,000 marked with structural shifts that predicted stalling.
• Post-drop behavior accurately highlighted re-test of ChoCH zones before reversal attempts.
⚙️ Indicator Logic (Brief)
• BoS (Green): Confirms trend continuation when structure breaks in the direction of the trend.
• ChoCH (Red): Signals a potential trend reversal with key level break.
No repainting. Zones are locked once confirmed.
In volatile markets like BTC, accurate detection of structural shifts can define risk and opportunity. This indicator consistently tracked evolving zones and highlighted major inflection points — without lag or overfitting.
BTC/USDT Analysis. Local Scenario Has Changed
Hello everyone! This is CryptoRobotics trader-analyst with your daily market update.
Yesterday, Bitcoin failed to confirm the bullish scenario above $105,000 and instead entered a natural correction. The volume zone at $104,000–$103,000 mentioned yesterday still hasn't shown any clear positioning.
Currently, the local scenario has shifted. On the 1-hour timeframe, we’ve seen a break in the trend structure. The cumulative delta indicates weakness on the buyers’ side, and just above the current price, there is a zone of absorbed market buys.
Main scenario: a decline toward the nearest support at ~$100,000 (absorbing volume), from where we can consider rejoining the global bullish trend.
Sell Zones:
$105,000–$105,700 (absorption of market buys),
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies).
Buy Zones:
~$100,000 (absorbing volume),
$98,000–$97,200 (local support),
$93,000 level,
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance),
$88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market sells),
$85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volume),
$82,700–$81,400 (volume zone),
$74,800 level,
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volume).
What do you think — which scenario will play out?
Share your thoughts in the comments — it’s always interesting to compare perspectives!
This publication is not financial advice.
HolderStat┆BTCUSD retest $100 000 level🚀 After a grueling multi‑month consolidation boxed between mid‑90 k and 100 k, BTC finally sliced through its ceiling, confirming a textbook breakout from the rising wedge that grew out of March’s strong consolidation pennant. Price is stair‑stepping higher inside a fresh ascending channel, using 96 k as intraday support and chewing through 100 k supply. As long as this channel stays intact, traders can focus on the mapped path toward the projected new ATH near 115 k.
BTCUSDT Roadmap From Demand to Potential Sell-Off ZoneBitcoin has successfully broken the descending trendline resistance, confirming a bullish continuation toward the upper levels. Price is currently supported by the Immediate Demand Zone between 90,970 and 92,917. Below that, a stronger support lies around the Strong Demand Zone between 84,011 and 86,374.
If momentum holds, Bitcoin is poised to test the 103,898 - 107,211 region, identified as a Dangerous Supply Zone where potential heavy sell-offs could occur. An extended push could aim for the projected high at 105,428.
Invalidation would occur if price sharply falls below 84,000, returning pressure to the downside. Structure remains bullish as long as higher demand zones continue to hold.
BTC - New Short-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈BTC has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong demand and structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of structure and lower blue trendline acting non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #BTC retests the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bitcoin’s Path to ATH: Final Wave or Just a Pause? Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) pumped about +2% after the " The United States has dropped its tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, down from a brutal 145%, while China is slashing its own duties on US imports to just 10%, temporarily, for the next 90 days. " news, but then started to decline again. Do you think Bitcoin can see the new All-Time High(ATH)?
Bitcoin is moving near the Support zone($102,200-$101,680) and Support line .
In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin appears to have completed microwave 3 of the main wave 5 and is currently completing microwave 4 of the main wave 5 .
Given the momentum of the decline a few hours ago , I expect Bitcoin to either touch the previous low or create a new low in the 1-hour timeframe .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Support zone($102,200-$101,680) once again and possibly touch the Support line and then attack towards the Resistance zone($109,588-$105,865) with the two scenarios I outlined on the chart .
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $106,943-$105,913
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $105,313-$104,787
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $102,198-$101,697
Note: If Bitcoin can move above $104,500 without correction, we can expect more pumping.
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $101,500, we can expect more declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BTCUSDT Key levels for 13/05/2025// The core idea behind this indicator was sparked by a simple but powerful clue:
// 👉 "If you get one level, you get all levels."
// From that point onward, everything—the logic, calculation method, and application—has been developed independently through my own analysis and experience.
// I am not a seller, and no one taught me this system. This method is a result of my own effort and refinement.
///////////////////// Explanation /////////////////////
// This trading system is designed to eliminate blind trades by offering confirmation-based entry and exit points.
///////////////////// Entry/Exit Strategy /////////////////////
// - Use the BLACK line for long trades, and the RED line for short trades, in line with confirmation from your trading plan.
// - Stop Loss:
// - For long trades: below the RED line.
// - For short trades: above the BLACK line.
// - Take Profit:
// - For long trades: target the next RED line above.
// - For short trades: target the next BLACK line below.
///////////////////// Recommended Timeframe /////////////////////
// Use on a 15-minute chart for best results.
///////////////////// Disclaimer /////////////////////
// This setup is shared purely for educational purposes.
// I am not responsible for any gains or losses that may result from its use.
// Always use your own judgment and risk management.
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #90👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s dive into Bitcoin and major crypto indices analysis. As usual, I’ll walk you through the key triggers for the New York futures session.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
As you can see, the price has found support at the 101,628 level and is now moving back up toward the 104,866 resistance.
⭐ The first trigger for a long position was the breakout of 102,882, which confirmed the activation of a double bottom pattern and could’ve been a good entry point for a long.
✔️ The next key triggers are at 104,866 and 106,247. If you don’t already have a position open, you can enter on a breakout above these levels—but keep in mind it’s risky since there’s a strong supply zone nearby.
💥 From the RSI oscillator, a breakout above 57.41 can serve as confirmation of bullish momentum. In that case, you can take on more risk in long positions.
📉 For short positions, the first trigger is the breakdown of 101,628. If the price sets a lower high below 104,866, you can consider entering a short on the break of 101,628.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Moving on to Bitcoin dominance—yesterday, dominance made a fakeout to the downside but came back above 62.65.
⚡️ To continue its downtrend, we can use 62.65 as the bearish trigger again. For a bullish confirmation, the next trigger is a breakout above 63.61.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Total2 had a pullback to 1.18 and is now heading back toward 1.24.
✨ We’ll confirm bullish continuation on a breakout above 1.24, and this can be used as a trigger for long positions.
🔽 For shorts, if the price prints a lower high under 1.24, a risky short could be considered on a breakdown below 1.18.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Now looking at Tether dominance—like I mentioned yesterday, we were watching the 4.51 level for confirmation. That level held as support and blocked further Bitcoin upside.
🔔 Currently, a breakdown below 4.51 would confirm bearish continuation. If 4.70 breaks to the upside instead, we get confirmation of a deeper market correction.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Is Bitcoin 100K the New Normal?We are the SeoVereign Trading Team.
With precision analysis and sharp market insight, we regularly publish Bitcoin and crypto trading ideas based on technical structure and momentum.
🔔 Follow us to never miss a market update.
📈 Bitcoin Reclaims the 100K Narrative — A New Bullish Wave in Motion
The Bitcoin market is showing renewed strength, with price action suggesting the early stages of a major bullish continuation. We're currently observing a well-formed Reverse Deep Crab harmonic pattern, indicating a potential short-term pullback driven by late-entry short positions — but more importantly, it's setting the stage for a strong long-side breakout.
As momentum builds, this retracement could offer a prime long entry opportunity before the next leg up.
🎯 Key Upside Targets:
1st Target: 105,180 — Initial resistance zone
2nd Target: 105,780 — Key structural breakout level
3rd Target: 106,277 — Measured move from harmonic projection
From a positioning standpoint, the market still shows signs of short-side overcrowding, which could trigger a short squeeze and further fuel upside momentum.
🧠 Strategy Insight:
We're looking to position long into weakness, aligning with both technical structure and broader market sentiment. Risk-managed entries with staggered take-profit levels are advised to capitalize on potential volatility and breakout acceleration.
🚀 Now is not the time to fade strength — it’s time to ride the trend.