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BTCUSDT trade ideas

Bitcoin Short Trade Setup🔻 Bitcoin Short Trade Setup 🔻 Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance around the $98,800 - $100,000 zone. The price has rejected this level multiple times in the past, making it an ideal area for a short position. 📉 Trade Setup: 🔹 Entry: Around $98,850 🔹 Stop Loss: Above $100,160 (key resistance) 🔹 Take Profit: $96,087 (previous support level) 🔹 Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2:1 🧐 Why Short? ✅ Strong resistance zone ✅ Previous rejections at this level ✅ Potential pullback after recent rally If price breaks above resistance, this trade setup becomes invalid. Trade with caution and manage your risk accordingly! What do you think? Let me know in the comments! 📊💬
Short
by ForexandCryptoTrader
BTCUSDT (OKX) Analysis - February 21, 2025OKX:BTCUSDT.P **Overall Assessment:** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) on OKX remains highly volatile and the overall trend is uncertain. While the long-term trend (Daily chart) is technically still an uptrend, it has *weakened significantly*. The 4-hour and 15-minute charts are in confirmed downtrends. This analysis focuses on identifying key levels where Smart Money might be active and assessing trend strength. **Detailed Analysis by Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (Daily):** * **Trend:** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening, *at high risk of reversing*). * **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):** * Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) structure is *becoming less defined and broken*. The recent price action has broken previous lows. * Prior Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the upside, but now a significant and deep pullback is underway. * **Liquidity:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Significant SSL rests below previous lows in the 85,000 - 90,000 range. This is a likely target for Smart Money. * **Buyside Liquidity (BSL):** BSL is present above the all-time high. * **ICT (Inner Circle Trader Concepts):** * **Order Block:** The price has *broken below* the prior bullish Order Block (the large green candle before a significant up-move). This is a *major bearish signal*. * **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):** * Price has *broken below* the 50-period EMA (yellow), a bearish signal. * The 200-period EMA (white) is the next major support level. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * A *long red bar* indicates strong selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud indicating Downtrend, *No Buy/Sell Signal*. * **Volume Profile:** Relatively low volume on the recent decline. * **Candlesticks:** The most recent candlestick is red, confirming selling pressure. * **Support:** EMA 200, 85,000-90,000 (SSL area). * **Resistance:** EMA 50, Previous All-Time High. * **Summary:** The Daily chart's uptrend is significantly weakening. The break below the 50 EMA *and* the bullish Order Block, combined with the negative Money Flow and bearish Trend Strength, are all major warning signs. The SSL below is a key area to watch. **(2) TF4H (4-Hour):** * **Trend:** Downtrend. * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). * BOS to the downside. * **Liquidity:** * **SSL:** Below previous lows. * **BSL:** Above previous highs. * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** The price was rejected by a bearish order Block * **EMA:** * Price is below both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs (bearish). * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Predominantly red, confirming selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Green Cloud *But No Buy/Sell Signal.* Indicates Sideway * **Volume Profile:** * Relatively high volume. * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 4-hour chart is in a confirmed downtrend. The Money Flow is bearish, price below both EMAs. **(3) TF15 (15-Minute):** * **Trend:** Downtrend (but showing *some* signs of consolidation/sideways movement). * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) - but with *slightly* higher lows recently. * BOS to the downside. * **ICT:** * **Order Block** Price could not break up the bearish Order Block. * **EMA:** * The 50-period and 200-period EMAs are acting as resistance. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Alternating red and green, predominantly red. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud (Bearish), *BUT* there's a *bullish divergence* (price made a lower low, but the Trend Strength indicator made a higher low). This is a *potential* early warning sign, but needs *strong confirmation*. * **Volume Profile:** * Relatively high Volume * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 15-minute chart is in a downtrend, although with *very tentative* signs of stabilization. The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength is noteworthy, but *not* a buy signal on its own. **Overall Strategy and Recommendations (BTCUSDT):** * **Primary Trend (Day):** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening). * **Secondary Trend (4H):** Downtrend. * **Short-Term Trend (15m):** Downtrend (Potential Early Reversal Signals). * **Liquidity:** Significant SSL zones exist below the current price on all timeframes. * **Money Flow:** Negative on all timeframes. * **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day and 15m. Sideway on 4H. * **Strategies:** 1. **Wait & See (Best Option):** The conflicting signals and the strong bearish momentum on the shorter timeframes, combined with the weakening Daily chart, make waiting the most prudent approach. Look for: * **Bearish Confirmation:** A decisive break below the recent lows on the 15m and 4H charts, with increasing volume and continued negative Money Flow. This would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. * **Bullish Confirmation:** A strong, sustained break above the 15m EMAs, a shift in the 15m Money Flow to green, *and* a bullish signal on the 4H Trend Strength, *and* price holding above EMAs and ideally reclaiming the Daily Order Block. 2. **Short (High Risk):** This aligns with the 4H and 15m downtrends. * **Entry:** On rallies towards resistance levels (EMAs on 15m/4H, previous support levels that have turned into resistance). * **Stop Loss:** Above recent highs on the chosen timeframe. * **Target:** The next support levels (recent lows on 15m, then potentially the SSL zones on the 4H and Daily charts). 3. **Buy (Extremely High Risk - Not Recommended):** Do *not* attempt to buy until there are *very strong and consistent* bullish reversal signals across *all* timeframes, including a definitive shift in market structure on the 4H and 15m charts, positive Money Flow, and a clear break above resistance levels. The bullish divergence on the 15m Trend Strength is *not* sufficient on its own. **Key Recommendations:** * **Conflicting Timeframes:** The primary conflict is now resolved toward the downside. The Daily is weakening significantly. * **Money Flow:** Consistently negative, a major bearish factor. * **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day and 15, Sideways on 4H, but the *divergence* on the 15m is a *potential* early warning. * **Daily Order Block:** The *break* of the bullish Order Block is a significant bearish development. * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Be aware that Smart Money may target the SSL zones below. This increases the risk of stop-loss hunting. * **Risk Management:** Due to the high uncertainty and volatility, *strict risk management is absolutely critical.* Use tight stop-losses, do not overtrade, and be prepared for rapid price swings. * **Volume:** Confirm any breakout or breakdown with volume. **Day Trading and Intraday Trading Strategies:** * **Day Trade (TF15 focus):** * **Short Bias:** Given the current 15m downtrend and negative Money Flow, the higher probability is to look for shorting opportunities. * **Entry:** Look for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks, previous support levels that have become resistance) and then show signs of rejection (bearish candlestick patterns, increasing volume on the downside). * **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (recent lows). * **Be very cautious:** The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength indicator suggests a potential bounce *could* occur. Don't be aggressive with shorts until this divergence is invalidated. * **Avoid Long positions:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 15m chart (break above EMAs, positive Money Flow, bullish market structure). * **Swing Trade (TF4H focus):** * **Short Bias:** The 4H chart is in a downtrend. * **Entry:** Wait for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks) and show signs of rejection. * **Stop Loss:** Above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support levels (e.g., the 200 EMA on the Daily chart, SSL zones). * **Avoid Long positions:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 4H chart. **SMC Day Trade Setup Example (TF15 - Bearish):** 1. **Identify Bearish Order Block:** Locate a bearish Order Block on the TF15 chart (a bullish candle before a strong downward move). *We have identified this in previous analyses.* 2. **Wait for Pullback:** Wait for the price to pull back up to test the Order Block (this may or may not happen). 3. **Bearish Entry:** * **Rejection:** Look for price action to reject the Order Block (e.g., a pin bar, engulfing pattern, or other bearish candlestick pattern). * **Break of Structure:** Look for a break of a minor support level on a *lower* timeframe (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute) after the price tests the Order Block. * **Money Flow:** Confirm that Money Flow remains negative (red). 4. **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order *above* the Order Block. 5. **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (e.g., recent lows) or a bullish Order Block on a higher timeframe. **In conclusion, BTCUSDT is currently in a high-risk, bearish environment in the short-to-medium term. The "Wait & See" approach is strongly recommended for most traders. Shorting is the higher-probability trade *at this moment*, but only for experienced traders who can manage risk extremely effectively. Buying is not recommended at this time.** **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.
by LinaEngword
Bitcoin and altcoin overview (February 21-22)Bitcoin reached the upper boundary of the volume zone in the range at $98,000 yesterday. At the moment, sellers attempted to defend this level, but buyers absorbed the pressure, forming local support at this price. Although we have broken through this level, the movement remains weak, making a correction very likely. Yesterday's alternative scenario did not play out. For long-term holders, it is essential to wait for consolidation above $100,000 and look for long entries upon a correction to the high-volume range zone at $98,000–$96,000. Sell Zone: 🔻 $107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies). Buy Zones: 🟢 $97,500–$96,800 (local volume zone). 🟢 ~$95,000 (sell absorption). 🟢 $89,000–$86,300 (accumulated volumes). Interesting Altcoins For SWARM , a full reversal has occurred, making it worth considering long positions either on a breakout of the current local highs or on a retest of support zones: 📍 $0.412–$0.405 📍 $0.39–$0.38
by Crypto_robotics
17/02/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $98,823.86 Last weeks low: $94,093.81 Midpoint: $96,458.84 Not a whole lot to comment on for this weekly outlook, we had a tighter weekly range last week ( EUROTLX:4K instead of $11K) however the midpoints were both $96K and both weeks started at their respective midpoints. For me this suggests a coiling of bitcoins price with anticipation for a larger move in a given direction, this could be either bullish or bearish we are yet to see. Since last weeks CPI inflation print of a hotter than forecast 3.0%, a dollar that is finally rolling over and tariffs put on hold until April 1st, these factors should all play into the hands of the bulls but the chart needs to reflect this. For this week I am anticipating more chop, if the pattern of tightening weekly ranges continues with no real idea of direction then the opportunity for credible trades reduces until we get an idea of trend direction. Right now there is no trend direction and so bitcoin should be treated as such. Altcoins continue to suffer across the board and IMO this will not change until we see a bullish move in BTC. This environment is for short term traders as it stands.
by ProR35
BTC Market Thesis – February 20, 2025Current Market Overview Current Price: $97,632 Open Position: $95,917.6 Decision: HOLD_BUY – The market is showing bullish momentum, suggesting further upside potential. Stop Loss: $95,000 Take Profit: $99,600 Confidence Level: 80% Technical & Market Indicators RSI (1h): Indicates bullish momentum, suggesting buyers are gaining control. MACD: Showing a moderate upward slope, signaling potential for further price appreciation. CME Options Data: Put/Call Ratio: 0.9 – slightly bullish as call options dominate. Open Interest: Moderate, meaning traders are engaged but not at extreme levels. Binance Perpetuals: Funding Rate: 0.01 – Market leaning slightly towards longs. Open Interest: 78,892 BTC, indicating a healthy level of market participation. Profit Ratio Today: 1.20 – Indicates that traders who entered today are mostly in profit, reinforcing positive sentiment. Possible Scenarios & Probability 1️⃣ Bullish Scenario (60% Probability) 📈 BTC breaks above $98,000 and reaches $99,600 Strong bullish sentiment pushes BTC past key resistance levels. RSI & MACD confirm continued upward momentum. Positive funding rate and moderate OI support a sustained uptrend. Institutional traders (CME data) continue to favor long positions. 2️⃣ Neutral Scenario (25% Probability) 🔄 BTC consolidates between $96,500 – $98,000 Some profit-taking slows the rally, but support at $96,500 holds. MACD remains positive but shows weakening momentum. Open Interest suggests indecision, with traders waiting for further signals. 3️⃣ Bearish Scenario (15% Probability) 📉 BTC drops below $96,500 and tests $95,000 Unexpected negative news or macroeconomic factors trigger a sell-off. RSI becomes overbought, leading to short-term correction. A decline in Open Interest suggests traders are closing positions. Final Takeaway Primary Strategy: Hold and monitor resistance at $98,000. Risk Management: A stop loss at $95,000 protects against unexpected downturns. Trigger to Sell: If BTC struggles at GETTEX:98K with weakening momentum, a short-term exit may be considered. Trigger to Buy More: A clean break above GETTEX:98K with strong volume confirms continuation to $99,600+.
by titankarma
BITCOIN UPDATE!BTC has been continuously dropping for 23 days since it reached a new all-time high. The range between $90k and $94k has formed decent support for BTC, and it is once again hovering close to this range. As I mentioned in my previous update, a drop in BTC would be concerning. However, you could consider it a blessing in disguise—if we see a further dip, it might present a better opportunity to accumulate. Key Points: ~ Crucial Support: $90k ~ RSI Range: Close to the oversold range ~ Rebound: If BTC holds the support range ~ Further Rejection: If BTC breaks down and closes below the support range Always do your own research and analysis before investing.
by Dexter_The_Trader
BTC Market Strategy: Navigating Pullbacks & Breakout RisksMost Relevant Timeframe for Entering a Position • 2H and 4H can sometimes be too volatile. The 2H RSI is already above 80, pointing to a potential imminent pullback. • 8H offers a good balance for trades lasting a few days, as the RSI is around 55, ISPD Div Pro around 0.72/0.53, and Mason’s around 0.20/0.19—indicating there’s still some room for upside. • 12H and 1D show Satisfaction already above 0.5, which is less “comfortable” for starting a new long (higher risk of a local top). Liquidation Map (1D) & ETF Flows Liquidation Map (Coinglass, 1D) • Significant potential long liquidation clusters exist in the 98–100k zone. This suggests that if BTC breaks above 97–98k convincingly, a short squeeze could be triggered. • Conversely, multiple long liquidation levels are stacked around 93k and below, reinforcing the risk of a cascading sell-off if BTC breaks under 92–93k. ETF Flows (Farside Investors) • In the second half of February, several days saw negative net flows (e.g., –60.7M on Feb 17, –64.1M on Feb 19), with little to no major inflows. • The lack of significant institutional buying suggests caution—without strong ETF support, a break above 98k remains uncertain. Practical Approach • Watch the 8H timeframe for a possible intraday pullback, then consider going long if the price bounces off support near 94k–95k. • If you prefer very short-term intraday trading, look for a pullback on 2H/4H (where RSI might drop from 80 toward 50) before re-entering. Key Support & Resistance Levels • Supports • 93,000–94,000 $: A significant technical support zone (also visible via Auto AVWAP Low on 4H/2H around 95k, marking the lower range). • 92,000 $: A psychological threshold below which more stop orders could be triggered (OI LIQMAP). • If there’s a strong break, 88,000–90,000 $ could serve as a second support tier. • Resistances • 96,000–97,000 $: Daily Tenkan area that has rejected price multiple times; also visible near the top of the 2H/4H range. • 98,000–100,000 $: A major obstacle (often aligning with Auto AVWAP High and the upper Ichimoku zone on D1). Given the large long liquidation clusters in this area, a breakout above 98k could lead to a short squeeze. • 102,000 $: According to Auto AVWAP High (Daily and 12H), this is the major resistance. Operational Recommendations 1. Wait for a pullback • On shorter timeframes (e.g., 2H), the RSI is very high. Better to wait for a retracement toward 94–95k before attempting to go long, especially if there’s a technical bounce and the RSI cools off. 2. Use a cautious stop • Below 92k, there’s a risk of a cascade effect if the market seeks deeper liquidity. 3. Take partial profits • If BTC crosses 98–100k without strong volume, consider partial profit-taking. ISPD Div Pro around 0.7–0.8 (on 12H/1D) often signals a potential slowdown. 4. Alternation scenario • As long as there isn’t a clear daily close above ~98k–100k, a “flat-type” correction remains possible. A prolonged range or broader bearish structure could develop if macro factors (inflation, Fed decisions) weigh on the market. General Conclusion • Technical indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, RSI) still suggest a short-to-medium-term bullish bias, but we are nearing “elevated” zones on 2H/4H and a Satisfaction reading above 0.5 on 12H/1D. This calls for caution. • The liquidation map confirms key risk areas: • Above 98k → Short squeeze possible if 97–98k breaks cleanly. • Below 93k → Risk of cascading sell-off if 92–93k fails. • The lack of ETF inflows raises concerns about institutional support—without a clear shift in inflows, BTC may struggle to hold gains above 98k. • 8H remains the recommended timeframe for catching pullbacks without the extreme volatility seen on 2H. • Key supports: 93–94k, then 92k. Key resistances: 96–97k, 98–100k, and further up at 102k. Strategy • Consider buying on a dip if BTC tests the 94–95k zone again and indicators (RSI/Mason’s) cool off. • Take partial profits if momentum falters below 98–100k, as ISPD Div Pro above 0.7 can hint at exhaustion. • Use a tight stop if price breaks decisively under 92k. All in all, the short-term outlook remains bullish as long as 92–93k holds, but risks of consolidation or a deeper correction are increasing, particularly if institutional support remains weak or major market players trigger a liquidation event.
by Ox_kali
BTC Bullish Continuation (Another Top OR New Prominent High?)BTC price seems to exhibit signs of overall bullish continuation as the price action may form a credible Higher Low on key Fibonacci and Support levels. There might be a possibility that BTC may break it's All Time High Price of 109588. It might be worth observing price the action further if 109588 breaks. A potential break may be indicative of another top OR new prominent high (if the range considerably breaks). Trade Plan : Entry @ 97389.73 Stop Loss @ 87000 TP 1 @ 107779.46 (Before All Time High) TP 1.5 - 2 @ 112975 - 118169.19 (After All Time High) Ride Further with Caution if TP1 hits and move Stop Loss to Break Even if TP1 hits as well.
Long
by LevelsBySBT
Bitcoin is walking a tightrope—stuck between $94,200 - $102,500 Bitcoin is walking a tightrope—stuck between $94,200 - $102,500 with $98,350 acting as the key pivot. Break & hold = 102K test. Rejection = potential drop to range lows. 1️⃣ Key range: $94,200 - $102,500 BTC can't break above $98,350 for half a month—building pressure. A clean breakout opens the door to $102K. Failure = possible sweep of range lows. 2️⃣ Election VWAP defense Bulls aggressively defending this level—a break could trigger fast downside. But so far, it’s holding like a fortress. 3️⃣Short-term signals Market structure shift (MSB) on the 1H chart. Demand zone slightly below current levels—possible liquidity grab for re-entry. 12H time frame also hints at a reversal setup. 4️⃣ The game plan? Hold above $98,350 = bullish breakout confirmation. Lose 12H support & election VWAP = watch for $94,200 retest. Patience > overtrading—market is moving like a coiled spring. How are you positioning? Waiting for a break or taking range trades?
Long
by Goldfinch_song
Trading with multiple VAMAsI want to show you how to analyse multiple timeframe VAMAs for trading opportunities. This is an interesting approach that can reveal valuable market structure information. For this example I am using a 15m, 1h and. 4h VAMA, but you can use this on lower or higher timeframes as well. First, let's understand what each timeframe VAMA represent in this case: The 15-minute VAMA indicates short-term trends and momentum The 1-hour VAMA reveals intermediate trend direction The 4-hour VAMA represents the broader market structure When these VAMAs overlap on your lower timeframe chart (15m in this case), they create what we might call "zones of interest." Think of it like layers of support and resistance that have different degrees of significance based on their timeframe. Here's how we can interpret and use this information: Convergence Zones When multiple VAMAs cluster in a tight price range, this creates a significant zone of interest. For example, if your 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour VAMAs are all within a narrow price band, this often indicates a strong support or resistance level. These zones typically exhibit one of two behaviors: Price Bounces: When price approaches a convergence zone from above or below, it often respects these levels. The more timeframes that have converged, the stronger the zone becomes. A bounce from such a zone with corresponding volume can present a high-probability trade opportunity. Zone Breaks: If price successfully breaks through a convergence zone, especially with increased volume, this often signals a strong trend continuation or reversal, depending on the direction of the break. Hierarchical Trending You can identify the strength and maturity of trends by examining how the different timeframe VAMAs are arranged: Strong Uptrend Structure: 4H VAMA lowest 1H VAMA above 4H 15min VAMA above 1H This "stacking" of VAMAs shows a healthy trend structure. The higher timeframe VAMAs act as dynamic support levels in an uptrend (or resistance in a downtrend). Trade Entry Opportunities Alignment Trades: Look for moments when all VAMAs are pointing in the same direction and properly stacked. These situations often present high probability setups. For example: In an uptrend Price pulls back to test the 15-minute VAMA while the 1H and 4H VAMAs continue trending up.This creates a "buy the dip" opportunity with multiple timeframe confirmation. Divergent Zone Trades: When the faster VAMAs (1min, 15min) show divergence from the slower ones (1H, 4H), this can indicate potential reversal points: If the 1min and 15min VAMAs start curling up while price is testing the 1H VAMA as support. This divergence in shorter timeframes while respecting longer timeframe support can signal a reversal opportunity. Breakout Confirmation: Use the multiple timeframes to confirm breakout trades: When price breaks above a convergence zone Look for the faster VAMAs (1min, 15min) to cross above the slower ones Volume should increase during the break The previous resistance zone (marked by the VAMAs) should become support
Education
by jpkxyz
BTCUSDT (OKX) Analysis - February 20, 2025**Overall Assessment:** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) on OKX remains highly volatile and shows conflicting signals. The long-term trend (Daily chart) is technically still an uptrend, *but it has weakened considerably* and is showing significant signs of a potential reversal. The 4-hour and 15-minute charts are in confirmed downtrends. The focus of this analysis is on identifying potential areas of Smart Money activity (liquidity pools and order blocks) and assessing trend strength. **Detailed Analysis by Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (Daily):** * **Trend:** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening, *at risk of reversing*). * **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):** * Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) structure is *becoming less defined*. The recent price action has broken previous lows. * Prior Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the upside, but the current pullback is very deep. * **Liquidity:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Significant SSL rests below previous lows in the 85,000 - 90,000 range. This is a likely target for Smart Money. * **Buyside Liquidity (BSL):** BSL is present above the all-time high. * **ICT (Inner Circle Trader Concepts):** * **Order Block:** The price has *broken below* the prior bullish Order Block (the large green candle before a significant up-move). This is a *major bearish signal*. * **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):** * Price has *broken below* the 50-period EMA (yellow), a bearish signal. * The 200-period EMA (white) is the next major support level. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * A *long red bar* indicates strong selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud indicating Downtrend, *No Buy/Sell Signal* * **Volume Profile:** Relatively low volume on the recent decline. * **Candlesticks:** The most recent candlestick is red, confirming selling pressure. * **Support:** EMA 200, 85,000-90,000 (SSL area). * **Resistance:** EMA 50, Previous All-Time High. * **Summary:** The Daily chart's uptrend is significantly weakening. The break below the 50 EMA *and* the bullish Order Block, combined with the negative Money Flow and bearish Trend Strength, are all major warning signs. **(2) TF4H (4-Hour):** * **Trend:** Downtrend. * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). * BOS to the downside. * **Liquidity:** * **SSL:** Below previous lows. * **BSL:** Above previous highs. * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** The price rallied up to, and was rejected by, a *bearish* Order Block. * **EMA:** * Price is below both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs (bearish). * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Predominantly red, confirming selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Green Cloud, *But No Buy/Sell Signal.* This indicates a potential *retracement* within the downtrend, or a period of consolidation, *not* a trend reversal. * **Volume Profile:** * Relatively High volume * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 4-hour chart is in a confirmed downtrend. The Money Flow is bearish, and the price was rejected by a key Order Block. The green Trend Strength cloud *without* a buy signal suggests a potential *temporary* relief rally or consolidation, *not* a trend change. **(3) TF15 (15-Minute):** * **Trend:** Downtrend (with some signs of *possible* stabilization). * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) – *but the most recent low is slightly higher, a potential early sign of a change*. * BOS to the downside. * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** Price has reacted to bearish Order Block. * **EMA:** * The 50-period and 200-period EMAs are acting as resistance. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Red and green alternating , showing some buying pressure has appeared, but sellers are still in control overall. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud (Bearish), *BUT* there's a *bullish divergence* (price made a lower low, but the Trend Strength indicator made a higher low). This is a *potential* early warning sign of a reversal, but it needs *strong confirmation*. * **Volume Profile:** * relatively high volume. * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 15-minute chart is in a downtrend, but there are *very early* and *tentative* signs of a possible stabilization or even a minor bounce. The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength is important to note, but it's not a buy signal on its own. **Overall Strategy and Recommendations (BTCUSDT):** * **Primary Trend (Day):** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening). * **Secondary Trend (4H):** Downtrend. * **Short-Term Trend (15m):** Downtrend (Potential Early Reversal Signals). * **Liquidity:** Significant SSL zones exist below the current price on all timeframes. * **Money Flow:** Negative on all timeframes, although the 15m is showing *some* buying pressure returning. * **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day and 15m. Bullish on 4H, *but without a buy/sell signal*, indicating a likely retracement or consolidation, not a trend change. * **Strategies:** 1. **Wait & See (Best Option):** The conflicting signals (especially the 4H Trend Strength) and the strong bearish momentum on the shorter timeframes make waiting the most prudent approach. Look for: * **Bearish Confirmation:** A decisive break below the recent lows on the 15m and 4H charts, with increasing volume and continued negative Money Flow. This would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. * **Bullish Confirmation:** A strong, sustained break above the 15m EMAs, a shift in the 15m Money Flow to green, *and* a bullish signal on the 4H Trend Strength. This would be a *very early* sign of a potential reversal, but it would need further confirmation on the 4H chart (price above EMAs, positive Money Flow). 2. **Short (High Risk):** This is the more likely scenario *at this moment*, given the 4H and 15m downtrends. * **Entry:** On rallies towards resistance levels (EMAs on 15m/4H, previous support levels that have turned into resistance). * **Stop Loss:** Above recent highs on the chosen timeframe. * **Target:** The next support levels (recent lows on 15m, then the Daily Order Block area around 92,000-94,000). 3. **Buy on Dip (Extremely High Risk - Not Recommended):** Do *not* attempt to buy until there are *very strong and consistent* bullish reversal signals across *all* timeframes, including a definitive shift in market structure on the 4H and 15m charts, positive Money Flow, and a clear break above resistance levels. **Key Recommendations:** * **Conflicting Signals:** The most important factor is the conflict between the still *technically* bullish Daily chart and the bearish 4H and 15m charts. The 4H Trend Strength being bullish *without a signal* adds to the uncertainty. * **Money Flow:** The predominantly negative Money Flow is a major bearish factor. * **15m Trend Strength Divergence:** This is a *potential* early warning, but it's *not* a buy signal on its own. It needs *much* more confirmation. * **Daily Order Block:** The *break* of the bullish Order Block on the Daily chart is a significant bearish development. * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Be aware that Smart Money may target the SSL zones below. This increases the risk of stop-loss hunting. * **Risk Management:** Due to the high uncertainty and volatility, *strict risk management is absolutely critical.* Use tight stop-losses, do not overtrade, and be prepared for rapid price swings. * **Volume:** Confirm any breakout with volume. **Day Trading and Intraday Trading Strategies:** * **Day Trade (TF15 focus):** * **Short Bias:** Given the current 15m downtrend and negative Money Flow, the higher probability is to look for shorting opportunities. * **Entry:** Look for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks, previous support levels that have become resistance) and then show signs of rejection (bearish candlestick patterns, increasing volume on the downside). * **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (recent lows). * **Be very cautious:** The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength indicator suggests a potential bounce *could* occur. Don't be aggressive with shorts until this divergence is invalidated. * **Avoid Long positions:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 15m chart (break above EMAs, positive Money Flow, bullish market structure). * **Swing Trade (TF4H focus):** * **Short Bias:** The 4H chart is in a downtrend. * **Entry:** Wait for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks) and show signs of rejection. * **Stop Loss:** Above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support levels (e.g., the 200 EMA on the Daily chart, SSL zones). * **Avoid long position:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 4H chart. **SMC Day Trade Setup Example (TF15 - Bearish):** 1. **Identify Bearish Order Block:** Locate a bearish Order Block on the TF15 chart (a bullish candle before a strong downward move). *We have already identified this in previous analyses.* 2. **Wait for Pullback:** Wait for the price to pull back up to test the Order Block. 3. **Bearish Entry:** * **Rejection:** Look for price action to reject the Order Block (e.g., a pin bar, engulfing pattern, or other bearish candlestick pattern). * **Break of Structure:** Look for a break of a minor support level on a *lower* timeframe (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute) after the price tests the Order Block. This confirms weakening bullish momentum. * **Money Flow:** Confirm that Money Flow remains negative (red). 4. **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order *above* the Order Block. 5. **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (e.g., recent lows) or a bullish Order Block on a higher timeframe. **In conclusion, BTCUSDT is currently in a high-risk, uncertain environment. The short-term and medium-term trends are bearish, while the long-term trend is weakening. The best approach for most traders is to wait for clearer signals. Shorting is the higher-probability trade *at this moment*, but only for experienced traders who can manage risk aggressively. Buying is extremely risky and not recommended at this time.** The bullish divergence on the 15m Trend Strength is a *potential* early warning of a change, but it needs *much* more confirmation before acting on it. The 4-hour chart showing a green cloud with *no* buy/sell signal adds to the uncertainty, suggesting a possible retracement/consolidation *within* the downtrend. **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.
by LinaEngword
Bitcoin and altcoin overview (February 20-21)Yesterday with Bitcoin we broke through the $96,000 level and reached the zone of maximum volume concentration during the sideways market. The buying volume is rather weak, and there isn’t an obvious dominance of either side yet. At the moment, it is most likely that we will test the upper boundary of the maximum volume zone at $98,000 and then correct again. Globally, we still expect a full resumption of buying. An alternative scenario is a strong volume breakout above $98,000—in this case, we consider going long during local corrections. Sell zone: $107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies). Buy zones: ~$95,000 (sell absorption), $89,000–$86,300 (accumulated volumes). Interesting altcoins: For IPUSDT, we are considering a continuation of the long from the zone $2.8–$2.61 if there is a reaction. For AMBUSDT , a serious potential for a reversal has formed, with a huge number of volume anomalies being released, above which we are currently consolidating. If the zone $0.16–$0.15 is tested and reacts, we open a long. An alternative scenario would be opening a long on a false breakout of the local minimum.
by Crypto_robotics
Levels to watch out The market has been stuck in a range for almost three weeks now. Unless we see a decisive break either below 90,000 or above 99,000, it’s tough to predict the next move. However, if we do break either level, it could trigger a sharp move—likely towards 125,000 or 75,000, with the latter seeming more probable at the moment. That said, time will tell. Personally, I’m expecting a short-term rally back to 99,000, especially after the recent head-and-shoulders pattern that’s been forming.
Long
by Shivkumar600
BTC Short SqueezeBitcoin is currently trading green for the week, where it currently sits at US$96,700. The Bollinger bands are continuing to compress, indicating that the price range of which Bitcoin is trading is narrowing. Should we get a kick in volatility in the coming days, below are some potential outcomes. Sentiment in crypto markets have taken a hit in recent weeks, with the fear and greed index currently indicating market sentiment as fearful. Global exchange data from Coinglass suggests that if Bitcoin surges to US$100,000, up to $5 billion in short leveraged positions could be liquidated, triggering a potential short squeeze as traders rush to cover their positions. Bitcoin volatility has also dropped to its lowest point since August 2024. Bullish Scenario Price may head towards $102k which is the February monthly open; this could be fuelled by a short squeeze – based on what we know from the exchange data referenced earlier. Bearish Scenario Price failing to remain above the yearly open of circa $93k could result in a move back towards the January low of $89k.
Long
by PHundal
Univers Of Signals Academy | Risk to Reward👋 Welcome to Univers Of Signals Channel! Let’s dive into another educational segment. After discussing capital management and risk management, we now turn to one of the most crucial concepts before entering technical analysis: Risk to Reward! 📌 Understanding Risk-to-Reward in Real Life Before we start, let me give you an example of risk to reward from the real world, outside of financial markets. Imagine you are considering investing in a startup technology company that has launched a new product. Risk: You estimate that you might lose $500 of your investment due to uncertainty about the product's success and intense market competition. Reward: However, if the product succeeds and the company grows, you could make a profit of up to $2000. In this example, the risk-to-reward ratio is 1:4, meaning for every $1 at risk, you could earn $4 in reward. This ratio can help you decide if this investment is appealing. If you believe the risk is acceptable and the potential reward is valuable, you might choose to invest. ⚠️ The Reality of Risk-to-Reward in Trading In the real world, if you are a logical person, we all adhere to risk to reward principles. However, it’s puzzling how, in financial markets, you often close your profitable trades as quickly as possible while staying in losing trades for months. This indicates a failure to adhere to risk to reward principles. Before I explain risk management and related concepts, make sure you've viewed the previous sections on risk management and capital management. Remember, if you're not setting stop-loss orders, this lesson might not be very useful for you. 🔍 What is Risk-to-Reward in Trading? In financial markets, risk to reward refers to the ratio between the level of risk an investor takes with a specific investment and the potential reward from that investment. This concept helps investors evaluate whether a particular investment is worth the risk. When trading, if you are about to open a position, set a stop-loss. If your stop-loss is triggered, resulting in a $10 loss, your target profit should be at least $20, creating a risk to reward ratio of 2. I won’t open a position with less than this! It's important to note that risk to reward alone doesn't hold much meaning. It gains significance when considered alongside win rate. The chart I will share clarifies the relationship between win rate and risk to reward. Look at the chart below. If your risk to reward is 1 and your win rate is 50%, you are breaking even—neither gaining nor losing. For risk to reward ratios below 1, you need a win rate of 100% to break even. Our logical risk to reward ratio is 2, where a 40% win rate keeps you profitable. We should allow our minds room for error rather than always striving for accuracy. 🛠️ Understanding Trading Tools Let’s take a simple look at our tools. The chart showcases two types of tools: short position and long position, applicable for both falling and rising markets. The tool displays your risk to reward ratio in the middle, with the stop-loss percentage below and the profit percentage above for long positions, and vice versa for short positions. 📈 Why Should You Use a Risk-to-Reward of 2? Why do you implement a risk to reward of 2? Consider this: if I opened 10 positions this week, with 6 hitting stop-loss and 4 reaching targets, my total loss would be $60. However, due to adhering to a risk to reward ratio of 2, my total profit would be $80, resulting in a net gain of $20! This illustrates the importance of adhering to risk to reward principles. Even if we lose more trades than we win, we can still be profitable in the end. The key is to focus on the overall outcome rather than individual battles. ❌ What Happens If You Don’t Maintain a Standard Risk-to-Reward? Now, consider what happens if I don’t maintain a standard risk to reward. For instance, if I open a position with a risk to reward ratio of 0.5, even if I make a profit, a subsequent loss could negate that gain. If you are involved in financial spaces, you may have encountered signal channels that share their positions, encouraging you to follow for profitable outcomes. For example, if they claim to profit from 95 out of 100 positions, you might feel that winning sensation. But what is their risk to reward ratio? A ratio of 0.1 means that if they hit just a few stop-losses, you could end up in a loss. Be cautious of misleading advertisements and high-return claims. If you manage to achieve a 5% to 10% profit monthly and sustain it for a year, even starting with $100, your trading record will be respected, leading to more funding opportunities. Avoid falling into traps set by opportunistic individuals. 🚀 Practical Trading Considerations Consider this: if you want to open a position but your target is above a major resistance level, and the likelihood of reaching it seems slim, I personally prefer not to open that position. It indicates that my entry point may not be optimal. ❤️ Friendly Note In closing, I encourage you to keep your positions until you reach your risk to reward target. Avoid checking the chart until you hit that point. Set alerts and make decisions only then. Always adhere to these rules for all your positions, not just one. Don’t worry about losing out on profits; instead, approach trading with calmness. Finally, remember that a profit in a position is not truly realized until it is closed and transformed into something tangible—food, clothing, a house, or a car.
by UNIVERSOFSIGNALS