CYCLE 4 | Pull back complete!Hi team,
The purpose of this post is to close out our thoughts posted back in December 2024 with the suggestion of a possible 30-40% correction scenario we envisioned BTC might look to complete over the upcoming months, and what we wanted to see the bulls achieve in order for Cycle 4 to move into its final phase. Using this set up we can look towards where BTC may look towards from here.
These steps were outlined in the below two posts:
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back (Dec 20 - 2024)
CYCLE 4 | UPDATE - BTC Possible Next Move into Sell Zone (Feb 14 - 2025)
REVIEWING WHAT HAPPENED
In these posts we suggested
1) BTC will likely pull back and look for opportunities for support
2) We outlined the following levels
* Demand Zone and bottom of our defined Price Channel (92-90K)
* Daily Order Block (OB) (88.5-87.9k)
* CME GAP - down as far as ~77K and suggested a wick on the weekly down to our March 2024 high would not be out of the question
These levels all were taken out with our worst-case forecast achieved. Bulls then successfully preceded to complete the requirements we set out in these posts:
1) Uptrend Channel: No Open / Close weekly candle outside of, push back within and HOLD as support / HOLD and remain inside of our cycle uptrend channel (keep BTCs relationship with this trend line intact).
2) Daily OB: Flip and hold as support (BTC first attempt was rejected, held as resistance and allow a more bullish double bottom to be formed).
3) 20W SMA / 21W EMA: Flip and hold these moving averages
4) Price Channel: Push back inside and hold with a least two weekly candle closes.
WHERE TO FROM HERE
We are now at this point where BTC is now poised to look at a new ATH. BULLs are looking for BTC to finish off this cycle, and the set up aligns perfectly with our 'Sell Zone' box time frame we have put in place to help us navigate this cycle. Our 'MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC' (see charts in below posts for updates) has swung back into our RL level of 7 and moving back towards out cycle peak risk levels.
To achieve a 'proper' finishing ATH bulls are looking for in this zone we would want to see BTC start to making aggressive moves from here in Q3 & Q4 of 2025.
The biggest concerns for BULLs and the upcoming case for bears is the weekly bearish divergences BTC has put in place with our prior ATHs this cycle. This is most notable in the RSI shown in this posts original chart. From here there are 3 likely scenarios BTC could take based on rejects of our RSI dark black tend line and in place weekly bearish divergences. These Scenarios are marked 1, 2 and 3.
Scenario 1
BTC moves aggressively out of this price channel to new ATHs. There is a chance Bears could push price into a lower high here or put in a 'SFP' (Swing Failure Pattern) and sweep our prior high.
Scenario 1a
This would play out scenario 1a which bulls would want to see a retest and hold of the 20W SMA / 21W EMA before heading back up to attack high levels. We would expect our RSI moving Advertage to provide support in this level (see point 1a in the RSI chart). Failure to hold would strongly support the suggestion of cycle 5s bear market beginning IMO.
Scenario 2
A HOLD and bounce off the 20W SMA / 21W EMA again would give bears another chance to put bearish divergence with the weekly RSI. Watch for a higher high in price (likely a SFP or sweep of our current ATH) and a lower high closed in our Weekly RSI. This would be a scary scenario for the bulls.
BULLISH SCENARIO | BREAKING THE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE DOWN TREND LINE
The most bullish move BTC Bulls could achieve in all the above scenarios is to breaking above the RSI Bearish Divergence Down Trend Line (shown as green up trend arrows in the RSI). This will invalidate current bearish divergences and sent bulls focus on the more speculative upper targets for this cycle.
Hope you have found this post series an interesting watch as I have.
BTCUSDT trade ideas
3 Deadly Trading Mistakes Every Trader Must Avoid NowDid you know that over 70% of trading decisions are influenced by unconscious emotions?
Fear of missing out (FOMO), greed, and external noise can easily steer traders away from rational decision-making. In this analysis, we explore the three most destructive psychological traps in trading—and how to effectively manage them.
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. The main points are summarized in 3 clear lines at the end
🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: A Personal Perspective:
Bitcoin has recently established multiple daily resistance levels and has now executed a strong breakout above its long-standing descending channel. This move is backed by a significant increase in buying volume, signaling renewed bullish momentum. From a short-term perspective, I anticipate at least a 6% upside, with a target around the $110,000 zone. 📊🚀
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
1. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): A Dangerous Impulse
FOMO can easily lead traders to make hasty decisions based on market hype or emotional reactions, rather than solid analysis. This often results in entering trades at the wrong time, chasing price movements, and ultimately suffering losses. 😟
How to Avoid It:
To manage FOMO, establish a well-defined trading strategy. Stick to your plan and avoid reacting to every market move. Focus on your predefined entry points, and resist the urge to "catch up" with the market. 📊
2. Greed and Its Impact on Decision-Making
Greed can cloud a trader's judgment, leading them to hold on to losing positions with the hope that prices will reverse. Alternatively, greed may push traders to enter positions at overextended price levels, anticipating further gains. This often results in greater losses or missed opportunities. 💸
How to Overcome It:
A clear risk management plan is essential. Set stop-loss and take-profit levels before entering any trade. By adhering to these boundaries, you can reduce emotional decision-making and improve the consistency of your trading approach. 📉
3. The Influence of Social Media on Trading Decisions
In today’s digital age, social media platforms are filled with opinions, rumors, and market hype that can lead traders astray. Often, unverified information or exaggerated claims can prompt traders to make impulsive decisions that don’t align with their strategies. 📱
How to Counteract It:
To combat the impact of social media, rely on credible sources of information. Always perform your own analysis and make decisions based on reliable data, not speculative posts. Surround yourself with professionals and resources that help you stay objective. 📚
Using TradingView Tools to Control Emotional Biases
One of the most effective ways to keep your emotions in check is to rely on objective technical indicators. Tools like RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands on TradingView can help you identify entry and exit points that align with your strategy rather than reacting to emotion. 📈
By incorporating trendlines, support/resistance levels, and alerts, you can stay disciplined and make decisions that are grounded in technical analysis. These tools guide you in staying on track, even when emotions run high.
The Vital Role of a Trading Plan
A well-structured trading plan is your shield against emotional trading. It provides clear guidelines on when to enter and exit trades, how much risk to take, and sets your financial goals. Without a plan, it’s easy to fall into the trap of impulsive decisions driven by fear or greed. 📝
How to Create One:
Define your strategy, risk management rules, and long-term objectives. A solid trading plan helps you stay focused, prioritize your financial goals, and avoid emotional disruptions. Sticking to it is crucial for sustainable success in the markets.
Conclusion : Mastering Trading Psychology for Long-Term Success
Psychological discipline is just as important as technical skills when it comes to successful trading. By understanding the emotional pitfalls that can cloud your judgment, you can make more rational, data-driven decisions. 📊
Using tools, sticking to your plan, and consistently managing your emotions are key to overcoming psychological barriers. With the right mindset and strategy, you’ll be better positioned to achieve your trading goals and build long-term success. 🚀
However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice ⚠️. The crypto market carries high risks 📉, so always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅.
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
Over 70% of trading decisions are influenced by unconscious emotions, with FOMO, greed, and social media noise being major psychological pitfalls. These emotional biases can lead to impulsive decisions, resulting in losses. To avoid this, create a solid trading plan, use reliable tools like RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands, and stay disciplined with stop-loss and take-profit levels. 📉
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box.
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Bitcoin BTC price analysis - READ the text !There was some positive news: "The US and China have agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days."
The price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC has entered the zone of total sales - $105-110 thousand.
🕯 Metrics show that large wallets are now opening short positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and on the other hand, no less large wallets that organized this rebound in the OKX:BTCUSDT price are very tempted to launch the final stage of cascading liquidations of shorts.
🍿 So, stock up on popcorn - it's going to be "fun" today/tomorrow, and then we'll go to the stronger side!)
Globally, before the growth wave begins, we want to see the final "shake-up" of the longs who have survived everything and still held their positions and didn't give up.
1️⃣ Weak correction in the range of $90-91k - to close the GAP that formed on this rebound and then continue to confidently update ATH with a clear conscience.
2️⃣ A strong correction to the range of $80-82k - during which it will be very interesting to watch the capital flow and dominance.
Which scenario is closer to your heart? Write in the comments!
_____________________
Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Lingrid | BTCUSDT potential PATHWAY to New All-Time HIGHBINANCE:BTCUSDT is testing the upper boundary of its breakout structure after reclaiming the $100,000 level and pushing above the blue upward trendline. The broader uptrend remains intact as price forms a higher low within the ascending channel and sets sights on fresh highs. Price action remains bullish with room for upside continuation if BTC holds above the breakout zone.
📌 Key Levels
Support zone: $98,000 - $100,000 (prior breakout and trendline retest)
Breakout target: $118,760 (resistance area top)
Invalidation level: Below $98,000 (break of structure + channel midline)
⚠️ Risks
Strong resistance lies just above ATH; could lead to rejection
Consolidation under resistance may delay breakout
Weekly close below $100,000 could shift momentum short-term
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
BTCUSDT – Potential Rejection Near $106K Before Deeper PullbackPrice is approaching a key resistance zone around $106,300, aligned with the upper boundary of a rising channel. I’m watching for a possible rejection at this level, which could trigger a pullback toward the FWB:88K –$90K support area, as shown in the red box. If that fails, we may revisit lower demand zones around $73K. However, a confirmed breakout above $106K would invalidate the bearish scenario and suggest further bullish continuation.
Let’s see how price reacts near resistance.
BTCUSDTHello traders.
The first trade of the week will be from BTCUSDT.
The pair drew a lot of attention over the weekend with strong bullish momentum. Some analysts are even suggesting it could rise to 106,000 USD during the week.
However, the crypto market is currently very volatile. Despite that, I'm activating a trade based on my system.
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 104000.00
✔️ Take Profit: 104596.14
✔️ Stop Loss: 103702.15
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
BTCUSDTHello everyone. Wishing you all a great weekend!
Just because the FX market is closed today doesn't mean we should stay away from trading in the crypto markets.
That’s why I’ve activated a Buy trade on BTCUSDT and wanted to share it with you as well:
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 103974.98
✔️ Take Profit: 104442.64
✔️ Stop Loss: 103662.77
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
BTC Cycle Top? Watching Q4 2025 for Major Reversal PotentialBTC is entering a zone I’m watching closely. Structurally, the current move reminds me of the previous two cycle tops — Q4 2017 and Q4 2021.
📅 My personal outlook:
I’m expecting a potential cycle top anytime between the end of Q3 and end of Q4 2025. Not a guarantee — just a framework to avoid emotional trades.
📌 Target zone:
1.618 Fib: ~$122,500
2.618 Fib: ~$150,000
Past cycles peaked near similar extensions. If the trend holds, these are areas I’ll consider taking action.
Let me know how you're planning your cycle moves.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CycleTop #MacroView #PriceTarget #TradingView #FibLevels
BTC - Ready for a breakout?Hey traders and investors!
On the 10-day chart, an intriguing situation is unfolding.
Sellers tested the Key Candle of the previous accumulation breakout — level 89,256, and the buyer’s initiative resumed.
Then, a manipulation (false breakout) occurred at the 89,256 test level. Volumes reveal the narrative: sellers sold off at high volumes, while buyers absorbed on declining volumes.
Now, a buyer zone has formed below, with the upper boundary at 99,475.
Just a few steps away from the ATH. A pullback is always possible, but for now, there are no signs of weakness (even a pullback to 89,256 wouldn't disrupt the bullish structure).
Now, the main question:
💡 How far up? +30,000?
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
+$30K Unrealized | Still Long, Is ATH Next?Even after the strong rally that pushed Bitcoin past the 100K level, the price continues to hold critical support zones without breaking recent lows. We're seeing a steady, stair-step climb ("grinding higher")—absorbing previous supply through sideways consolidation while still making higher highs.
After forming a local high near 105,000, we’ve seen some pullback—but so far, there’s been no breakdown of major support, especially on lower timeframes. The structure still favors continuation to the upside, and the broader uptrend from the 74K–83K zone remains intact.
That said, we haven’t seen any major correction yet. With the market now testing the final supply zone before all-time highs, failure to break out could trigger a wave of profit-taking. This could lead to short-term selling from traders who bought lower, anticipating new highs.
We're now in a zone where volatility can spike in both directions, making it a tough area for clean entries. Long positions may feel risky due to the high level, and shorting too early might get squeezed out by another high. But this environment also presents great short-term opportunities—as long as you're quick and manage risk tightly.
If the current bounce fails to break above 105K, it may signal a larger corrective move. The first support zone to watch is 103K, followed by 99K. Even if price pulls back to these levels, the overall trend may still be valid—these are key zones where the uptrend could resume.
At this point, we must observe whether this bounce leads to further continuation or becomes a “trap” before a larger move down. If price holds the previous supply zones as support, we could see another leg up. If not, a deeper retracement may unfold.
This is also a zone where many traders may FOMO in, expecting an immediate breakout, only to get caught in a fakeout or shakeout. Personally, I think the market is more likely to test this final supply zone with increased volatility and a deeper correction before making a real move to new all-time highs. Risk management is crucial here.
We’ve had a strong rally with no significant retracements, and while the uptrend may continue, failure to break out soon—or if profit-taking kicks in—could lead to meaningful corrections. Be prepared.
To summarize, we are in a very important decision zone:
Will price continue holding the lows and grind higher to new ATHs,
or will it reject from supply and trigger a larger retracement?
Whatever happens next, don't rush into a position out of fear of missing out.
Wait for structure, wait for confirmation, and remember: entering one step later at a better level is far better than entering too soon and getting stopped out.
Trading the Impulse Rally Retracement — Price and Time Symmetry Here we have my STOP LOSS TRIANGLE on our beautiful Bitcoin — if you’re not quite sure what I mean or am doing drop me a follow here and check out a few post! Or come find me on X —
The beauty of this concept is the ability to trade with rules the potential retracement in price/time symmetry distinctively and without emotion, as the underlying trades to potential harmonic reversals.
BTCUSDBTC strategy is following fed style,we need to see direction and swing into direction.am seeing a retest into broken supply roof 99k-100 as demand . or will price keep buying high to test 107 ?? and break could seeing more buying into 117k and 116k will be watched based on structure and character
BTC: Potential Dip into FVGs Before New ATHBitcoin has rocketed from ~$94 000 to ~$103 250 in just days and is now consolidating between $102 364–$104 145. A Swing Failure Pattern at the top suggests a corrective pullback into one of three Fair Value Gaps aligned with key Fibonacci retracements, before the next leg up toward a fresh all-time high. This setup uses structure, inefficiency zones, and Fib levels to pinpoint high-probability entries.
📊 Chart Breakdown
1. Current Picture: Consolidation & Warning ⚠️
- Range: $102 364 – $104 145
- Swing Failure Pattern (SFP): Price briefly wicks above $104 145 to grab liquidity, then reverses. This classic liquidity hunt often precedes a deeper retrace as late bulls are stopped out.
2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – Untested Support Zones 🌊
FVGs are rapid imbalance areas where price left gaps in the order book. These zones act like magnets, drawing price back to “fill” inefficiencies.
FVG 1 (Nearest): $101 700 – $102 364
FVG 2 (Mid-Zone): $99 900 – $100 600
FVG 3 (Deepest): $97 400 – $98 700
3. Fibonacci Confluences (from $93 377 → $104 145) 📏
Fibonacci retracement levels often align with FVGs to form confluence support—ideal for swing entries.
0.786 Fib @ $101 840.65: Sits squarely in FVG 1, a high-probability bounce zone.
0.618 Fib @ $100 031.62: Golden Ratio within FVG 2, offering strong support.
0.5 Fib @ $98 761 & 0.382 Fib @ $97 490.38: Cover top and mid-lower FVG 3 for a deep corrective entry.
📈📉 Navigating the Next Moves: Key Trade Scenarios 🧭
Given the current structure, with the SFP indicating a potential short-term top and strong FVG/Fibonacci confluences below, here are two primary scenarios we can watch for:
Scenario 1: The Short-Term Pullback Play (Short Position 📉🐻)
Concept: Capitalizing on the SFP at the consolidation high (~$104,145) to trade the anticipated dip towards the FVG/Fibonacci support clusters.
Aggressive Entry: Look for entries around $103,500 – $103,900 if price retests the upper part of the consolidation after the SFP, showing weakness.
Conservative Entry: A break below the consolidation low (~$102,364) could offer a confirmation entry, potentially on a retest of this broken level as resistance.
Stop-Loss 🛑: Place above the SFP high, e.g., $104,450 – $104,650, to protect against a false breakdown.
Profit Targets (FVG Zones) 🎯
TP1: The top of FVG 1 / 0.786 Fib area (~$102,300 – $101,840). This zone is critical.
TP2: The FVG 2 / 0.618 Fib area (~$100,600 – $100,030) if TP1 is breached with momentum.
Trade Management & Considerations 🤔:
Entry Confirmation: Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframes (e.g., 15m/1H rejection wicks, bearish engulfing) near the SFP high.
Profit Taking: Consider taking partial profits at TP1. The reaction here is crucial.
Reversal/Close Short: If price enters TP1 and shows strong bullish rejection (large wicks, engulfing bull candles, volume spike), close the short and prepare to flip to the long scenario.
Holding for TP2: If price slices through TP1 with sustained bearish pressure, trail your stop above TP1 once it’s clearly broken.
Invalidation: If price reclaims and holds above $104,650, the short thesis is invalidated.
Scenario 2: The FVG Rebound & Rally (Long Position 📈🐂)
Concept: Entering on the expectation that one of the FVG/Fibonacci confluence zones will hold as support, leading to a rebound and continuation of the larger uptrend.
Potential Entry Zones 📍:
Zone A (Primary): FVG 1 / 0.786 Fib area ($101,700 – $102,364, sweet spot ~$101,840).
Zone B (Secondary): FVG 2 / 0.618 Fib area ($99,900 – $100,600, sweet spot ~$100,030).
Stop-Loss 🛑:
If entering in Zone A: Place below FVG 1, e.g., $101,350 – $101,150.
If entering in Zone B: Place below FVG 2, e.g., $99,600 – $99,400.
Profit Targets 🎯:
TP1: Back to the consolidation high / SFP area (~$104,145).
TP2: The key resistance zone ($104,675 – $106,500).
TP3 (Ultimate): The All-Time High ($109,588).
Trade Management & Considerations 🤔:
Entry Confirmation: Do not blindly enter. Wait for price to enter your chosen FVG zone AND then show clear bullish confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., 1H/4H bullish engulfing, hammer, RSI divergence).
Zone Prioritization: Zone A is the first test. If it fails and breaks down, Zone B becomes the next area of interest.
Profit Taking & Scaling Out: Take partial profits at TP1 and again at TP2 to secure gains.
Risk Reduction: After TP1 is hit, move your stop-loss to breakeven or slightly in profit.
Invalidation: A decisive break below $99,400 invalidates the bounce thesis and suggests a deeper correction.
🎯 Execution Notes
- Patience & Confirmation: Avoid “blind” entries. Seek volume confirmation and clear reversal candle patterns on 1H/4H charts.
- Risk Management: Define stops before entry and size positions to risk no more than 1–2% per trade.
- Additional Signals: Watch for bullish RSI/RSI-MFI divergences or a turn in on-balance volume at support zones.
Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational purposes only and not financial advice. Crypto trading carries high risk—always DYOR and consult a qualified advisor.
What’s your take? Which FVG/Fib level will hold? Share your insights below!
Potential Short SetupA rising wedge is forming on the 4H chart, hinting at potential bearish pressure. Adding to the caution, CVD divergence suggests that buying volume isn't fully supporting the price action—possible exhaustion ahead.
⚠ Not Financial Advice ⚠
Trade with caution! If you don't have a proper risk management plan, DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE. Always manage your exposure wisely.
BTC at a Crossroads: Bull Trap or Moon Mission?A possible bearish scenario is playing out on BTC, but hey—just one of many possibilities before the real bloodbath begins. 👀 This could just be a classic trap to lure people in before shaking them out. The key resistance zone is between GETTEX:97K and $101K, a big range to clear. If we flip it and close above $102K on the weekly, that would be amazing—but let’s be real, we’ll need a strong catalyst for that. If we do, then we’re likely talking about the $120K range.
On the flip side, if we drop lower from here, the most obvious support sits at $72K. Below that… well, let’s just say we don’t wanna go there—next real support isn’t until $50K. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope we don’t see those levels. Big decision point ahead—let’s see who wins this battle! ⚔️🚀
BTCUSDT Technical Analysis📊 BTCUSDT Technical Analysis – May 11, 2025
Hello traders! 👋
Here’s a fresh technical analysis on the BTC/USDT pair using the 1D timeframe. The chart highlights key supply and demand zones, harmonic structure, and two potential price scenarios for the coming weeks.
📌 Key Levels:
Support Zone: 86,191 – 88,909 USDT
Mid-Resistance: 91,978 USDT
Major Resistance Area: 105,371 – 108,458 USDT
🔍 Technical Overview:
After forming a strong bottom around 76,560, BTC reversed and surged upwards, filling the Fair Value Gap (FVG) created earlier.
Price is now testing a critical supply zone. A rejection from here may lead to a pullback, possibly toward the 86k–89k range.
If the support zone holds, it may act as a springboard for a new bullish wave targeting 105k and beyond.
🧭 Possible Scenarios:
Rejection at Resistance: Consolidation or pullback from the 105k–108k zone followed by downward movement.
Support Bounce: Rebound from 86k–89k support area leading to renewed bullish momentum.
Sideways Action: Short-term consolidation in the current price range before direction is confirmed.
💬 What’s your outlook for BTC at this stage? Are you expecting a breakout or a pullback? Share your thoughts in the comments!
🔔 Stay tuned for more updates and trade safely!