BTCUSDT trade ideas
btcusdtGreetings all, I did a numerological vol from the benchmarks and with that I concluded that we will fall hard at 66-67k dollars. I also want to point out that we have exactly an inverted chart of how the breakout was formed, fractality that has been repeating for a long time, a classic inverted pattern that often flies down after a fake carry up and hard down.
BTC Retrace or Rally? Bitcoin’s Liquidity Hunt & Next Move.Bitcoin BTC Analysis & Trade Idea
🚦 Market Context & Price Action
Bitcoin has experienced a sharp rally, pushing into previous weekly and daily highs. This area is a classic liquidity pool, where buy stops from breakout traders and late longs are likely accumulating. The current price action is overextended, suggesting that the market may be primed for a retracement as smart money seeks to capture liquidity before the next directional move.
💧 Liquidity Pools & Wyckoff Concepts
According to Wyckoff methodology, this phase resembles a "Buying Climax" (BC) where price surges into resistance, often followed by an "Automatic Reaction" (AR) and a potential "Secondary Test" (ST). The current rally into old highs is likely triggering buy stops, providing institutional players with ample liquidity to offload positions or engineer a shakeout.
🟢 Wyckoff Schematic:
Buying Climax (BC) at current highs
Anticipated Automatic Reaction (AR) as price retraces
Look for a range to develop (potential Accumulation phase) near the 50% Fibonacci retracement
📉 Fibonacci Retracement & Trade Setup
You’re eyeing the 50% retracement of the previous price range as a key level. This aligns with both technical and Wyckoff logic, as it’s a common area for price to find support after a liquidity grab.
🟢 Trade Plan:
Wait for a retrace to the 50% Fibonacci level
Observe for a range or consolidation (signs of absorption/accumulation)
Look for a bullish break of market structure (BOS) as confirmation
Enter long on confirmation, with stops below the range low
🌐 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment
Currently, Bitcoin sentiment is mixed but leaning bullish due to recent ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic uncertainty (e.g., inflation, rate cut expectations). However, funding rates are elevated, and open interest is high, indicating potential for a shakeout as overleveraged longs are vulnerable.
🟢 Key Fundamentals:
ETF inflows and institutional interest remain strong
Macro uncertainty (Fed policy, inflation) supports long-term bullishness
Short-term: Overheated sentiment and high leverage could trigger a corrective move
🧠 Sentiment & Risk Management
Social media and crypto news outlets are buzzing with bullish narratives, but this euphoria often precedes a correction. Be patient and disciplined—wait for the retrace and confirmation before entering.
🟢 Risk Management:
Only enter after clear accumulation and bullish BOS
Use tight stops below the range
Consider scaling in if the range develops with clear absorption
📈 Trade Idea Summary
Wait for a retrace to the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent rally
Look for Wyckoff-style accumulation and a bullish break of structure
Enter long on confirmation, targeting new highs or the top of the previous range
Manage risk with stops below the accumulation range
Not financial advice!
Bitcoin Rallies on Stablecoin Optimism and Liquidity BoostMacro:
- The crypto market rebounded as sentiment improved following the US Treasury Secretary's proposal to ease stablecoin regulations, boosting trading volumes and risk appetite.
- On-chain data reflects growing activity. The average bitcoin trade size rose 15% MoM, overall volume jumped, and 78% of supply is now in profit.
- Liquidity support from the increasing M2 money supply in China and the US has further enhanced bitcoin's appeal.
Technical:
- BTCUSD surged to resistance near 94300, aligning with the 100% Fibo Extension, before forming a Doji candle that signals possible correction. The price remains above both EMAs, indicating a bullish shift.
- If the price breaks below 92000, it may leads to a pullback toward the 87000–90000 support zone, near the 23.6%-38.2% Fibo Retracement levels.
- A breakout above 94300 may open the door for a move toward the next resistance around 101400.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Emotional Management — The Hidden ComponentIn this piece, I’ll touch on one of the most important topics — a core obstacle on the path to consistent and profitable trading.
We need to explore where certain emotions come from and how to work with them in order to better understand ourselves. What truly fits our nature, what common mistakes we make, and how to avoid them moving forward.
Until we learn how to navigate these internal roadblocks, we won’t be able to achieve stable financial results.
The Scariest Part
Let’s get straight to the point. The scariest thing that can happen to us in trading is a stop-loss being hit — in other words, taking a loss on a trade.
Scary? I don’t think so. This is a parameter we can control ourselves.
If we’re building a setup, we must define the size of the stop-loss — the amount we’re willing to risk if things go wrong.
And keep in mind: this risk will always be there, no matter how experienced or skilled you become. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that this time is different — that this setup feels so strong, so obvious, that there’s no way it could fail.
Spoiler: that’s exactly when you should start tracking your trades.
Every time you feel this kind of overconfidence, log it in a spreadsheet. I can already tell you what you’ll find: 1 to 3 out of 10 of those “super strong” setups will end up hitting your stop. Which means — your feeling of conviction had zero correlation with how price actually moved. The market simply didn’t care what you thought about it.
And one step further: even if your technical model is solid and well-developed, you still can’t predict the future with certainty. That means you also can’t ever be 100% sure your stop won’t get hit.
Does that make sense? Good — let’s move on.
Loss
Since we’re not all-powerful, we have to use stop-losses — and calculate them in a way that, at the very least, doesn’t make us feel pain when they’re hit. At the same time, the stop should be set at an optimal level, so we still feel the potential for profit. Otherwise, our brain won’t engage with the market properly — it won’t sense the reward, and that can distort our analysis.
This often leads to vague, low-quality setups — but even that is far less dangerous than oversizing positions to the point where potential losses feel unbearable.
See that fine line? Most of trading psychology and emotional control comes down to how we relate to loss. That’s where the real pressure is rooted.
Emotional Space
We experience both negative and positive emotions — that’s the full spectrum.
Your trading will only be high-quality if you avoid emotional imbalance. In other words, you need to stay centered and calm. Any excess emotional charge — whether negative or positive — will inevitably work against you.
If you’re stuck in the negative zone, you’ll start feeling anger and frustration, which will cloud your judgment and prevent you from thinking clearly during the trading process.
But being too far into the positive zone is just as dangerous — it leads to greed and overconfidence, which often result in oversized positions and dangerously wide stop-losses.
Both ends of the spectrum, if left unchecked, will push you into tilt — a state where you can no longer evaluate reality objectively and start making impulsive decisions. This is how traders end up losing a significant part — if not all — of their account.
The Algorithm
Let’s go back to what we covered earlier — the core catalyst behind tilt: violating your predefined stop-loss size.
You must first determine a loss amount that feels emotionally tolerable to you. Ideally, this number should be fixed, and you should never exceed it (except later, as your account grows). Once you’ve done that, you now have a simple algorithm: you build your setups using the same fixed-risk amount — and under no circumstances should you go beyond that limit.
This creates awareness in the brain. It knows the predefined threshold, is prepared for a negative outcome, and remains calm. Imagine a circle — as long as you stay within it, in your zone of comfort, you can operate with clarity and discipline.
But the moment you step outside that circle, your mind starts to feel stress. And if you don’t catch yourself in time, that stress escalates — leading you straight into a tilt state.
Emotional Triggers
Here’s where it gets both complicated — and surprisingly simple. All you need to do is follow one rule. But even that becomes difficult for many, because they give in to greed — the kind that pushes you to increase position size just because the setup “feels certain” (something I’ve already mentioned before).
On the other side of the spectrum, anger and frustration start to build — especially if you’ve just taken a loss and your mind shifts into “recovery mode.”
That emotional urge makes you want to win it all back quickly, so you raise the size of your next trade — planning to return to your original account balance first, and then go back to your normal risk-management rules. That’s a fatal mistake.
Here’s my advice: when you're in a drawdown — emotionally and financially — you should actually lower your stop size, not increase it, until you get back to a neutral baseline.
Both negative emotions (sadness, anger, frustration, disappointment) and positive ones (joy, excitement, euphoria) can push you to break your risk limits. The emotional trigger may be different, but the outcome is the same: you oversize.
The only time you should be trading is when you're in a neutral state of mind — for example, operating from a place of interest or curiosity.
It’s All in Our Hands
Understand this: we are the only ones truly responsible for executing our plan. If we increase our position size beyond what we should — that’s on us. If you know you’re making a mistake, why let it happen anyway? We control the entire process. If we truly don’t want to blow the account, we won’t — because we’ve calculated the risk beforehand.
Let me repeat: if we follow the plan and don’t act impulsively, we will never blow our account. That’s the foundation for building consistency in trading.
But the more unstable our emotional state becomes, the easier it is to step outside that “mental circle” and trigger a stress response. That stress inevitably leads to tilt. You’ll start reacting to everything — someone was rude to you, a fear of not having money for food, whatever. It all begins to pour into your trading: chaotic entries, random sizing, total abandonment of your risk rules. And in most cases, this spiral ends with one thing — a blown account.
The Solution
That’s why you should always monitor your emotional state — and ideally, keep a journal where you track how you feel each day. The moment you notice that you’re starting to lose control, step away from trading immediately. That’s the smartest decision you can make. I say this from experience — it’s been proven many times.
Yes, it’s hard to do — I get it. But remind yourself of this: if you keep trading in that state, there’s a high chance you’ll lose a significant part of your account. And when that happens, you’ll feel even worse — blaming yourself for not stepping away when you could have.
So yes, it’s difficult — but still far easier than dealing with the damage. The best move is to shut down your trading platform and avoid looking at charts for at least three full days. Shift your focus to something else entirely — anything that helps you stop obsessing over the market.
When those thoughts disappear — the ones about urgently making money back or hitting a certain target — that’s when you’re ready to return to trading with a clear and steady mindset.
The Takeaway
This is the core of what happens inside us — and how to respond to it. In most cases, this is the exact cycle that plays out. Everything else — more unique emotional patterns, sudden urges to break your own limits — will emerge with time.
Your job is to learn how to spot those triggers, notice your internal reactions, and pull yourself away from the screen before the damage is done.
Wishing you strength and clarity on this path.
#BTCUSDT – Momentum Builds, $93K in Sight… What’s Next?#BTCUSDT Update! 🚀
Bulls have delivered strong momentum, breaking above the FWB:88K zone and pushing up to $93K — a move we haven’t seen since early 2025. That’s a massive +10% daily candle on BTC, a clear sign of market strength.
Meanwhile, gold faced a sharp rejection from its ATH, dropping nearly $200 from $3500 to $3325 on the daily chart. This highlights a shift in liquidity and profit-taking—BTC is clearly the beneficiary. BITCOIN🔥
🔍 BTC Technical Breakdown:
BTC has now broken out above the daily resistance zone, including the 200-day MA, and is hovering just below the mid-term key area of GETTEX:92K –$93K.
This range previously served as solid support for nearly 90 days, from Nov 25, 2024, to Feb 25, 2025.
➡️ The Real Test Now:
Can the bulls flip this zone into support and drive us toward new ATHs?
The next few days will tell.
📌 My Personal Bias:
If momentum continues, I expect BTC to stall between $93K–$97K.
A pullback to FWB:88K would be a healthy retest of broken resistance.
If bulls hold that level, we could see a clean breakout continuation.
If not, BTC may revisit the $84K–$81K range before mounting another attempt upward.
This movement aligns with the Plan A I’ve followed since February and confirms our broader strategy:
Chart PLAN A&B Below!
💬 If you’re wondering what I’m doing right now…
You might ask:
✅ Should I keep my investment?
✅ Should I book some profits?
✅ Should I open a new position?
Here’s what I did:
My team and I secured half of our profits around GETTEX:87K – FWB:88K , and some between $91K–$93K.
We’re holding the rest and ready to buy again on any retrace—if price plays out as expected.
It’s part of our proven strategy: Secure profits, stay exposed, and prepare for the next wave.
📢 Public Trades Update:
🔹 Entry Avg: $79K - $78K
✅ Sold 25% at $85K
✅ Sold another 25% at $92,7XX
🟢 Still holding 50%
🔹 Entry Avg: $79,900 - $77,500
✅ Sold 35% at $81K
✅ Sold another 35% at $92,7XX
🟢 Holding the rest
📌 Short-term traders: Use tight SLs and focus on solid levels.
📌 Long-term investors: (This part is done).
💡 If you ignored our updates from $103K - GETTEX:98K and got stuck at the top, it's only a matter of time before the market pumps again—just ensure you can benefit from movements & dips
⚠️ Risk Management & Altcoins
🔸 Altcoins are still highly reactive to BTC’s retracements.
🔸 Stick to the plan, don’t trade emotionally, and keep FIAT ready.
📌 Final Thoughts – Stay Disciplined!
✅ Don’t FOMO if you missed our buy levels—we shared them early.
✅ Don’t chase resistance—wait for clear confirmation.
🔹 Execute smart, protect your capital, and stay patient.
Please keep in mind that this is not financial advice and the purpose of these charts is to provide an idea of coin movement, not buy or sell signals. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and not suitable for everyone, so be aware of the potential risks before making any investment decisions. The information presented here is a personal effort and is subject to success or failure, and we welcome constructive criticism.
Good luck to all.
🙏we ask Allah reconcile and repay🙏
Bitcoin (BTC): Be Careful - This Might be One Big Trap.....Bitcoin has broken the GETTEX:92K area, which on bigger timeframes is near the major resistance zone and from where we were expecting to see some sort of weakness or rejection.
What we got instead was a big liquidation hunting, which led the price into overbought zones on RSI and Bollinger Bands. 10% movement without any correctional moves on Bitcoin is a lot, and so taking that all into consideration, we are expecting at least to see a retest back to the GETTEX:92K area, from where we will get more confirmations of upcoming movements.
If we see that buyers will secure the zone, then we might actually head to upper zones, but if we see that sellers will overtake that zone (which then would mean that we have formed a fakeout), it would be an ideal shorting position - let's wait.
Swallow Academy
Bitcoin will return to $100,000!Bitcoin has broken above the $91,000 zone, just as we anticipated.
On-Chain Insights:
• Long-Term Holders: Mild distribution — profit-taking phase
• Network Activity: Steady — strong and healthy
• Sentiment: Bullish — weak USD and rising institutional inflows
Macro Overview:
• U.S.–China tensions and Fed uncertainty boost Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal
• Institutions are steadily increasing exposure — a strong positive signal
BTC SHORT SIGNAL!!Are you ready for a price drop?
There are two groups of people in the market right now. Those who believe that Bitcoin will go straight from its current price to $125,000, and those who believe that the price must first touch 65-72 to go up. I am in the second group, and I think we have a higher chance of winning if we are a member of the second group. There are a lot of buy orders hidden in the 65-72 areas, it seems that we cannot go up without attracting them.
Technical Analysis Indicators Cheat SheetHello, traders! 🦾
This cheat sheet provides a comprehensive overview of the most widely used technical analysis indicators. It is designed to support traders in analyzing trends, momentum, volatility, and volume.
Below, you’ll find a handy screenshot of this Cheat Sheet that you can save and peek at whenever you need a quick, friendly refresher on your trading indicators. ;)
1. Trend Indicators
These tools identify the direction and strength of price movements, critical for trend-following strategies.
Moving Averages (MA)
Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) smooth price data to highlight trends. Crossovers (e.g., 50-day vs. 200-day MA) signal potential trend shifts.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – Tracks the difference between two EMAs, paired with a signal line to generate trade signals. A bullish crossover occurs when MACD rises above the signal line.
Parabolic SAR. Places dots above or below the price to indicate trend direction. Dots below the price suggest an uptrend; above, a downtrend.
ADX (Average Directional Index)
Measures trend strength (0–100). Values above 25 confirm a robust trend; below 20 indicate consolidation.
2. Momentum Indicators (Oscillators)
These indicators assess price movement speed and highlight overbought or oversold conditions.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Ranges from 0 to 100, with values above 70 indicating overbought conditions and below 30 indicating oversold. The divergence between the RSI and price can signal impending reversals.
Stochastic Oscillator –Compares closing price to the price range over a period (0–100). Above 80 is overbought; below 20, oversold. %K and %D line crossovers provide precise trade signals.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index) – Measures price deviation from its average. Readings above +100 indicate overbought; below -100, oversold.
Williams %R – Similar to Stochastic, it measures distance from the period’s high (0 to 100). Above -20 is overbought; below -80, oversold.
3. Volatility Indicators
These tools quantify price fluctuation ranges to optimize trade timing.
Bollinger Bands – Comprises a 20-day SMA and two bands (±2 standard deviations). Narrow bands reflect low volatility; wide bands indicate high volatility. A price touching the outer bands may signal a reversal or trend continuation, depending on the context.
ATR (Average True Range) – Calculates the average price range over a period to gauge volatility. Higher ATR values denote greater market movement.
4. Volume Indicators
Volume-based indicators validate price movements and highlight market participation.
OBV (On-Balance Volume) – Cumulates volume to confirm price trends. The rising OBV, alongside rising prices, supports an uptrend. OBV divergence from price may foreshadow reversals.
Volume Oscillator – Compares two volume moving averages to evaluate buying or selling pressure. Positive values suggest stronger buying. It typically confirms breakouts or assesses the sustainability of a trend.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) – It analyzes money flow based on price and volume. Positive CMF indicates buying pressure; negative, selling pressure.
5. Other Key Indicators. Advanced Tools for Deeper Market Analysis.
Ichimoku Cloud – Combines five lines and a “cloud” to assess trend, momentum, and support/resistance. Price above the cloud signals an uptrend; below, a downtrend. Cloud thickness reflects the strength of support or resistance levels.
Fibonacci Retracement – Maps potential support and resistance using Fibonacci ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%).
Pivot Points – Derives support (S1, S2) and resistance (R1, R2) levels from the prior period’s high, low, and close.
Skills to Sharpen for Smarter Trading
Successful traders often find that combining indicators from different categories yields better results. For instance, pairing a trend-based EMA with a momentum indicator like RSI can help confirm signals more reliably — much like crafting the perfect coffee blend, where balance is everything.
Many also realize that stacking similar tools, such as using both RSI and Stochastic, tends to clutter the picture rather than clarify it. A focused set of indicators usually proves more effective.
Another common practice is backtesting setups on historical data to understand how strategies perform in specific markets and timeframes. It’s a way to rehearse before stepping onto the stage.
Ultimately, those who see consistent results tend to integrate indicators into a coherent strategy rather than reacting to every signal. That clarity often makes all the difference
Many of these indicators, from MACD to Bollinger Bands, are readily available on platforms like TradingView, making it easy to apply them to your charts.
Subscribe and let us know which of these indicators intrigues you the most so we can explore it further in our next post!
Good luck! 👏
BITCOIN - Short Trade - Take 2 - Downside Target Is 74,517...We're watching for a break below 87,000 to confirm the start of Wave (C), with a target of 74,517.
If price drops below 87,000 without making a new high, it confirms 88,894 as key resistance and an ideal stop level.
For a full breakdown, check out the video linked below in Related Ideas.
The Ultimate Guide to Smart Money ReversalsLet’s cut to it. Most retail traders get caught chasing moves that were never meant for them. They’re entering late, reacting to structure breaks without context, or fading moves without understanding what’s really happening behind the price.
If you're trying to trade like smart money on the reversal, at the turn then you need to know when the game is flipping. That’s where the Market Structure Shift (MSS) comes in. But not just any MSS. I'm talking about MSS that follow a liquidity sweep and are driven by real displacementnot weak candles, not in consolidation. Real intent. Real shift.
Here’s how I approach it.
What Actually Counts as a Market Structure Shift?
Everyone talks about market structure higher highs, lower lows, etc. But structure breaks alone don’t mean anything. A valid MSS isn’t just about breaking a swing point. It’s why it broke and how it broke that matters.
I only consider a shift valid when three things are in place:
Liquidity has been taken (above a high or below a low).
The shift is caused by a displacement candle that clearly shows urgency.
The move happens with strength, not during chop or consolidation.
If you don’t have all three, it’s just noise.
Liquidity Comes First
Everything starts with a liquidity sweep. That’s the trap.
Price has to reach into a pool of liquidity usually above equal highs, clean swing highs, or below clean lows to grab those orders, and reject. That rejection is key. It shows smart money is offloading positions into retail breakouts or stop hunts.
Without a sweep, I don’t care what breaks. No liquidity = no reversal setup.
So the first thing I do is mark out obvious liquidity levels. Equal highs, equal lows, trendline touches anywhere retail is likely to have their stops sitting. That’s where the fuel is.
Then Comes Displacement
After the sweep, I want to see displacement a sharp, aggressive move in the opposite direction.
Not a weak pullback. Not a slow grind. A real candle that shows intent.
Displacement is always obvious. You’ll get a clean candle, often engulfing multiple others, that breaks structure and leaves behind an imbalance what we call a Fair Value Gap (FVG). That imbalance is the signature of smart money hitting the market hard enough to leave a gap in the order flow.
If the candle’s weak, or if it happens during consolidation, I skip it. Displacement is what separates real reversals from fakeouts.
Here is a clean example of what it should look like.
Confirming the Shift
Once displacement confirms intent, I check if it actually broke structure.
That means:
In an uptrend, I want to see price break a previous higher low after sweeping a high.
In a downtrend, I want price to break a lower high after sweeping a low.
When that happens, that’s your MSS. Price has grabbed liquidity, shown displacement, and broken a key point in the structure. At that point, we’ve got a confirmed shift in control.
Entries, Stops, and Targets
Here’s how I trade it.
After the MSS, I wait for price to pull back into the origin of the move. Usually, that’s going to be one of two things:
The Fair Value Gap (imbalance left by the displacement candle)
Or the MSS line itself (Shown on the example)
Once price comes back into that zone, that’s where I’m interested in getting in.
Stop loss always goes just above the high (for shorts) or below the low (for longs) of the displacement candle that caused the MSS. You’re giving it room to breathe, but keeping it tight enough to protect capital.
Targets are straightforward: go for the next pool of liquidity. That means swing lows (sell-side) if you’re short, or swing highs (buy-side) if you’re long. That’s where price is most likely to be drawn next.
A Clean Bearish Example
Let’s say price is trending up, putting in higher highs and higher lows. Then it takes out a recent swing high liquidity swept.
Immediately after that, a strong bearish candle drops and breaks the most recent higher low. That candle leaves an imbalance behind—perfect.
Now I’ve got:
✅ Liquidity sweep
✅ Displacement
✅ Break of structure
I mark out the FVG / MSS line, wait for price to retrace back into it, and enter the short. My stop goes above the displacement candle high. My target? The next clean swing low. That's the next spot where stops are resting where the market is drawn.
A Few Things to Watch Out For
This method works, but only if you’re strict about the rules.
Don’t take MSS setups in consolidation. Wait for clean, impulsive breaks.
If the shift happens without displacement or imbalance, skip it. It’s not clean.
Be realistic with stops. Tight is good, but don’t choke the trade. Give it the structure it needs.
The biggest mistake I see? Traders jump in too early trying to front-run the shift before displacement confirms it. Let the story unfold. Wait for the sweep. Wait for the candle that slaps the market and breaks structure. That’s your edge.
As shown here, the first "MSS" is invalid and not the A+ setup you're looking for.
Final Thoughts
Trading smart money reversals is about reading intent. You’re not just looking at price, you’re understanding why it moved the way it did.
When you combine a liquidity grab, displacement, and a break in structure, you're aligning with institutional activity. You're trading at the turn when smart money flips the script and leaves everyone else chasing.
This isn’t about trading every break. It’s about knowing which breaks matter.
Keep it clean. Stay patient. Follow the flow.
__________________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
BITCOIN New Update (4H)Before anything else, we shouldn't forget that through multiple analyses shared from the bottom on higher timeframes, we knew Bitcoin was highly bullish.
The red zone from the previous analysis has been engulfed and cleared | a lot of sell orders have been absorbed, leading to a pumpy move. It’s better to wait for a pullback now.
The price has now reached a resistance zone, where a large number of sell orders have been absorbed, leading to a pumpy move.
Also, the diametric pattern is still visible, and after the completion of wave F | which has just occurred | a reversal is expected for wave G.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #76👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s dive into the Bitcoin analysis and key crypto indices. As usual, in this analysis I’ll review the futures triggers for the New York session.
⚡️ Not much has changed since yesterday, so without reviewing the previous analysis, let’s get into today’s setup to see what positions we can open.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
As you can see on the 1-hour timeframe, the price is still within its range box. Even though yesterday it tested the lower range once and we expected a breakout to the upside, that didn’t happen, and the price was rejected from the 95370 resistance and continued to range.
✔️ After the rejection from this level, volume began to decline, which is a good sign. The lower the volume gets, the sharper the breakout move from the box is likely to be.
💥 If 95370 is broken, I definitely recommend having an open position, as the risk of hitting the stop loss is worth the potential gain. The target in case of a breakout will be the 98828 resistance.
⭐ The SMA99 is also providing good support and is currently sitting below the candles, which adds to the positive bias for this scenario.
🎲 If the price gets rejected from the resistance again, we’ll likely see more range-bound action today. But due to the strong bullish momentum, I don’t think the price will lose its support levels, and it’s likely to test 95370 again.
💫 That said, if I observe structural changes and see support levels like 91945 breaking, I’ll also be ready to take short positions.
🔽 However, for shorting, I think we should wait for more structure to form. Once the price shows more reaction to the 93626–95370 range box, and if 93626 breaks, we can enter a short. But right now, I’d personally wait for a break of 91945 before going short.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Moving on to Bitcoin dominance, the range box is still intact, and price is above the 64.22 level. If Bitcoin breaks the 95370 resistance and BTC.D continues to rise without breaking below 64.22, then Bitcoin will outperform altcoins. If 64.41 is broken, we can expect a sharp bullish move in Bitcoin.
📊 To enter positions on altcoins, the best confirmation remains the break of the 64.22 level on BTC.D.
📅 Total2 Analysis
As for Total2, the 1.05 resistance still hasn’t been broken. To confirm the beginning of a bullish move in altcoins, we need a breakout of this level. The first target of this move would be the 1.07 resistance.
📉 To turn bearish, the first trigger is at 1.03. We’ll need to wait for the price to test it, so we can determine the precise level and react accordingly in future retests and breakouts.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
USDT.D behaves slightly differently from Bitcoin and Total2. While Bitcoin and Total2 are both near resistance and poised for a breakout, USDT.D is still some distance from the 4.99 support.
☘️ The probability of this support break coinciding exactly with Bitcoin and altcoin triggers is low. However, I believe this is a more significant trigger than Total2’s.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.