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BTCUST trade ideas

Breakout or Rejection? What the Daily Opening Range Really TellsEvery single day, the market makes a choice: Break out — or reject. That’s why the opening range — defined by the high and low during the first part of the day — acts like a psychological boundary. When price breaks out of that range, momentum often follows. When it fails to break, we get fake moves, consolidations, and traps. At CMA Technologies, our systems start by defining this key range. Then, we wait. No prediction. Just price confirmation. ✅ True breakouts often initiate the largest directional moves. ❌ False ones usually fade back into noise. We encourage every strategy builder to test one simple condition: "What does the price do after crossing outside of its initial daily range?" The results will surprise you — especially on high-volatility pairs. 📊 If you're curious, our “Daily Open Range Breakout Bot” is available on our profile now.
by CMATechnologies
Bitcoin MA 50 crosses 100If history repeats, this could be even bigger gains soon ahead. The blue MA 50 just crossed the orange MA 100 which happened in Oct '24 as well as Oct '23 -- this time happening so soon could defy historical pattern, but with a possible Fed interest rate cut in the works, this could be huge. After the recent Fed announcement that there would be no interest rate cuts at this time, the reason given was that the market was holding steady, though a recession was not entirely ruled out. If a recession starts to rear its ugly head before June 17th Fed meeting, they may change their outlook and enact interest rate cuts to ensure the economy can continue unscathed. Since Trump has walked back tariffs on China and is still working with the rest of the world to lower tariffs, the interest rates may not be cut in June. What does this mean for Bitcoin? A recession is still on the horizon, even without rate cuts and with lowered tariffs. The damage has already been done by tariffs, enough so that reports of impending empty shelves soon to hit stores this month is still a concern. People flock to other investment strategies when the market is so uncertain, hence Gold and Bitcoin getting their boosts recently. It's my opinion that Bitcoin will continue to grow in price as investors scramble to keep their portfolios on an uptrend. The MA 50 and MA 100 crossing is a great signal and gives me confidence in a continuing uptrend.
Long
by neuromancer
BTCUSD – Multi-TF Bearish SFP & Fib Retrace Before ATH Rebound Bearish SFP printed on 4H / 8H / 12H / 1D at $103 345 – $104 985 after a parabolic ~$94 k → $104 k run and multiple rejections at $104 k–$106 k resistance. Trump tariff-cut announcement sparked a sharp spike into resistance that was quickly sold off, confirming heavy supply at $104 k – $106 k. Baseline plan: drop to 0.786 Fib ~$102 586, then 0.618 Fib ~$100 613, before a push toward the ATH ~$109 588. Trade Setups Short – SFP Breakdown Trigger: 4H close below $103 345 Entry: ≈ $103 300 on retest SL: $105 500 (above swing high) TP1: 0.786 Fib ≈ $102 586  RR ≈ 0.7 TP2: 0.618 Fib ≈ $100 613  RR ≈ 2.6 Long – Fib Rebound Trigger: Bullish reversal at 0.618 Fib / FVG cluster ≈ $100 613 SL: $99 300 (below FVG) TP1: SFP top / range high ≈ $104 145  RR ≈ 2.7 TP2: ATH ≈ $109 588  RR ≈ 6.8
Long
by mikavehns
4
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-05-15 18:00 UTCBTC/USDT Technical Analysis Timeframe: 15-minute (Binance Spot) Composite Bias: 🟢 Bullish Key Levels Immediate Support: $103,450 (Previous swing low + ATR-based floor) Secondary Support: $103,000 (Psychological level + oversold RSI recovery zone) Resistance: $104,200 (Local high, MACD convergence point) Breakout Target: $104,500 (Measured move from recent consolidation) Technical Rationale MACD Bearish Crossover (Signal line > MACD, histogram negative) suggests short-term pullback risk, but RSI at 59.9 (neutral) leaves room for recovery. ATR at 156.89 reflects elevated volatility; often a precursor to directional moves. Volume & Structure Volume is below average during the latest uptick, raising concerns about rally sustainability (Quant Team flags this as a low-conviction move). Price was rejected at $103,960 after an earlier RSI dip to 7.7, confirming aggressive dip-buying interest. Macro Context Despite the bearish MACD crossover, trend strength score at 0.23 suggests weak downside momentum. Earlier extreme oversold RSI (<10) is often followed by sharp reversals in BTC. Risk Advisory (Compliance Division) False Breakout Risk: Low volume on upticks increases the chance of traps — confirm any breakout with ≥0.5x average volume. Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy uncertainty remains a headwind; monitor correlations with equities. Liquidity Gaps: Thin order books between $103,800–$104,200 may amplify volatility. Actionable Insight Entry: $103,500–$103,600 (retest of support confluence) Stop-Loss: Below $103,300 (1.5x ATR buffer) Take-Profit: Partial at $104,200 if volume confirms. Emphasize asymmetric reward/risk if $103,000 holds, but await volume confirmation before high-conviction entry.
by CryptoSignalsChannel
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #86👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s move on to the analysis of Bitcoin and major crypto indices. As usual, in this analysis I want to review the futures session triggers for New York. ✔️ Yesterday the market made another bullish leg and has now reached the 103642 resistance. There’s a chance we might enter a correction phase because the move has been very sharp and I think the market needs a rest. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe As you can see in the 1-hour timeframe, we had a bullish move that continued after a pullback to the 99337 zone, climbing all the way to 103642. 💥 The RSI trigger I gave you also got activated and yesterday you could open a momentum-based position. I personally already have a long on Bitcoin from near 88000, so I didn’t open another one yesterday. ⚡️ Currently, RSI is exiting the Overbuy zone, and if that happens, the chance of entering a correction phase increases. As long as the price is above 99337, the main market momentum is still bullish and we’re not confirming a trend reversal just yet due to this strong momentum. 📈 Over the past few weeks, I emphasized a lot that you should definitely have at least one long position open, and not to open short positions unless a trend reversal is confirmed. I hope you’ve used the analyses and opened proper positions on either Bitcoin or altcoins. 📊 Today, it’s a bit late to open new positions because I think the market has made its main move and now we’re waiting for a correction phase to start. However, if you don’t have a position, you can enter a very risky trade on the breakout of the 103642 level. 🚨 This position is very risky and I personally won’t open it because we’re near the ATH and I think even if Bitcoin moves up to 106247, it’ll likely take a breather and won’t go straight up. 🔼 In any case, if you want to open a long position, I personally suggest waiting for a new structure to form and then look for a trigger. Otherwise, the only current trigger we have is 103642. 📉 As for a short position, you definitely know by now that with this strong bullish momentum, I’m not going to give you a short trigger. You have to wait for a proper structure for short entries. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Let’s go to Bitcoin dominance. Yesterday dominance finally made a bearish move. It was a very sharp and one-sided drop to the 63.61 level without any corrections. 🧩 Currently, dominance is very bearish and altcoins have moved up strongly. Especially Ethereum, which after a long time made a sharp bullish move. I think as the market starts to correct, dominance will also move up and correct. ⭐ For altcoin entries, I personally wait for dominance to make a short-term upward correction and if it continues the second leg downward, I’ll enter altcoins. 📅 Total2 Analysis Let’s move on to Total2. This index also had a sharp bullish move and after breaking 1.05, it managed to climb to 1.17. 🔔 I’ve talked a lot about the 1.05 zone and repeatedly told you to make sure you have a long position if it breaks. With that trigger activated, the Total2 uptrend has started and reached the 1.17 resistance. ✨ Currently, the only available trigger is the breakout of the 1.17 zone, and if it’s broken, we can enter another position. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Let’s move to USDT dominance. Yesterday the 4.82 trigger was activated and dominance continued to fall. I also emphasized the 4.99 breakdown a lot and once again, I hope you’ve used the analysis and opened a position. 👀 Currently, the price has reached the 4.65 zone, which is very important and could trigger a correction. But if this zone breaks, we can open short positions. 💫 Overall, today if you notice, all the charts we analyzed seem to have made enough moves and now it’s time for a correction. However, if their triggers are activated and you don’t already have a position, you can still enter. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
11
Current range of BTCAfter BTC distributed over the weekend and turned immediately from distribution into reaccumulation there now could form a second accumulation model 1 or 2. I am looking for good confirmations below this current low for a possible long to the range high of the model. The technical price target for the reaccumulation model is the range high, but there also is supply at the top of the range, which got missed yesterday, so i would look out for that. If this does not work out i am looking for further deviations of the extreme points or simply a retest of a breakout/ breakdown of the range.
by ramon_markiewitz
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #87👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s get into the analysis of Bitcoin and major crypto indices. As usual, I’ll review the triggers for the New York Futures session. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe On the 1-hour timeframe, Bitcoin moved sideways yesterday as I mentioned, and after the RSI exited the Overbuy zone, it corrected down to the 102391 area. 🔍 This was a very minor correction, mainly due to the RSI leaving the Overbuy zone. Currently, the oscillator has reset, and if it re-enters Overbuy, we can confirm the start of bullish momentum. ✨ Now the candle has closed above the 103642 area, and if the price stabilizes above this level, it could move toward the main resistance at 106247. 📊 In my opinion, the price will move toward 106247 and then enter a correction because the breakout of 103642 was accompanied by increased volume, and if this volume continues, the probability of this move increases. 📉 If the correction starts from the current level, the first support we have is 102391, and after that, there is no solid support until 99337. 🧩 The reason I’m not using Fibonacci to find support zones is that the price hasn’t confirmed the start of a correction yet, and a proper top hasn’t been formed. I’m waiting for that top and confirmation of the correction before identifying key correction levels. ✔️ For now, only these two support levels are important, and as long as the price is above 99337, the trend remains bullish. 📈 For opening a position today, the Bitcoin trigger at 103642 has been activated and is currently getting a pullback. If you get confirmation from this pullback, you can enter a position — but be careful, there's a very important resistance at 106247 and that zone is highly significant. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Let’s move to Bitcoin dominance. Yesterday, dominance had a slight correction and pause, and today it broke the 63.61 area and is moving toward the 63.23 support. ⚡️ It seems there’s strong bearish momentum in dominance, and if it continues to drop, I believe it could easily break 63.23 and move further down. 📅 Total2 Analysis Let’s check out Total2. Yesterday, the 1.17 trigger for this index also activated, and you could open positions on altcoins. 💥 The next resistance we currently have is the 1.22 area, and considering the drop in Bitcoin dominance, this index can easily move toward that resistance. 🔔 At the moment, I can’t give you any trigger on this index — you can only enter based on confirmation from individual coins. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Now let’s look at Tether dominance. This index has also continued its move and after a short pause, broke below 4.65 and is moving downward. 🎲 For now, the trend in dominance is bearish, which pushes the market upward. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
6
SHORT on BITCOINBitcoin has completed its 5-wave Elliott Wave structure, and the highest-probability scenario now points to a 3-wave ABC correction before resuming its upward trajectory toward new all-time highs near 120,000. The initial wave (Wave A) is expected to target 120,000. The initial wave AeA) is expected to target 93,000, driven by bearish RSI divergences and oversold conditions. At the same time, the final wave (Wave C) could extend to 84,000.Theselevels(84,000.These levels (93K/$84K) act as technical magnets due to concentrated liquidity from pending sell orders and institutional liquidation clusters embedded in the market’s order book. The downward pressure is further amplified by the alignment of market structure dynamics, where these zones serve as focal points for price discovery and liquidity-driven retracements.
Short
by DavidCrypto11
BTC New Update (12H)The upward wave appears to be a complex correction. Price may retrace downward either from this area or from the red box, and then we could see another strong bullish move from Bitcoin starting from the green zone. It doesn’t matter where the rejection occurs | what matters is the green Rebuy zone marked on the chart. In the green zone, we are looking for buy/long positions. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
BTC decision time (16th-19th May)Its as simple as this. Fib Time Zone has accurately picked high, low, pause and now comes to a critical juncture. Could we finally be seeing the beginning of a bull run for all crypto assets or will we begin a bear market. Note time until end is in 460 days from May. My view End of May, June, July heavy upside for crypto. BTC up till $140-145k (may wick to 150k) July, Aug - The whales party in Europe again and expect a 30-35% drop - potentially back to $100k. Sept - Dec - Pumpamentals. Everyone is happy. Expect another 30% dump and a final blow out top (the one where you see thousands of posts on Instagram, X etc that they have their lambos. If my thesis is correct, bull market ends March-June 2026.
by Ralfetto
Bitcoin Era Number 4: EndgameAs we approach the final phase of the current Bitcoin cycle, the broader picture is coming into focus. This analysis maps the journey from November 2022 to November 2026 via a projected cycle peak in October/November 2025, highlighting key price channels and Fibonacci retracement levels. - Previous cycle's peak: $69K. - Projected cycle peak: ~$143K. - Bear market target (1.618 Fib Level): ~$ 31K, November 2026. This chart outlines the path Bitcoin could take, helping anticipate the transition from the current bull run into the inevitable bear market. I expect a market correction this summer, setting the stage for a sharp price surge starting in mid-August. This momentum could drive Bitcoin toward its anticipated all-time high in the final quarter of the year. Will history repeat, or will new macro factors reshape the landscape?
by Phenor
Long trade 15min TF overview 🟩 Buyside Trade Log 📈 Pair: BTC/USD 🏷️ Type: Intraday | NY Session PM 🧠 Setup: Supply & Demand Narrative (2min TF) 🆔 Trade ID: #BTCUSD-0515A 📅 Date: Thursday, 15th May 2025 🕞 Time: 3:42 PM ⏱️ Timeframe: 2-Min 🔹 Entry Price: 103,084.13 🔹 Profit Target: 104,096.63 (+0.98%) 🔹 Stop Loss: 102,882.41 (-0.20%) 🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 5.02 🔍 Reasoning: This buyside trade was initiated on the 2-minute timeframe, leveraging a refined supply and demand narrative. Price action formed a demand zone following a mitigation phase, with bullish order flow re-emerging into the NY PM session. 2min TF
Long
by davidjulien369
Btcusdt forming bearish h&s pattern in 1hr time frameA bearish head and shoulders pattern is forming on the 1-hour BTCUSDT chart. A close below 101464 on the 1-hour timeframe may activate the pattern. However, since we are back in an uptrend, I would not trade this pattern. Alternatively, if the price touches the liquidity sweep area and forms a rejection, I might consider a short entry with lower risk exposure, say 0.5% instead of the regular 1%. If a rejection forms, we can consider an entry with a stop-loss placed above the peak of the right shoulder, which would invalidate the pattern. The targets are 99400 and 98100. If you're a bull looking for an entry, a target within this pattern is a good entry point preferably the 98100 area. The only question is, where is your stop loss? Other traders know how to enter on a bounce, but I don't. So, I will stick to my strategy unless I'm doing a DCA then just, hold and forget.
Short
by axxxis666
BTCUSDTHere is your translated and polished English version with a professional and data-driven tone: Hello traders. Today's first trade comes from BTC. Currently, BTC’s delta value is very close to turning negative (currently at +0.72%). In addition to that, we’re seeing the Activity and Volume Order Flow Profile positioned at a highly critical level. For these reasons, I’ve opened a sell position on BTC. You can find the full trade details below: 🔍 Criteria: ✔️ Timeframe: 15M ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 / 1:2 ✔️ Trade Direction: Sell ✔️ Entry Price: 103,796.33 ✔️ Take Profit: 103,428.49 ✔️ Stop Loss: 103,979.65 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It’s a trade I’m personally taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes. 📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies: 💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
Short
by Nurlan_PT
my idea about btc in secound half of 2025Dear followers, I’ve analyzed BTC’s recent price movements and on-chain indicators, and I’d like to share my outlook for the second half of 2025. Based on my technical and macroeconomic assessment, I anticipate a significant correction before a strong rebound later in the year. Key Highlights: Sell Zone: I expect BTC to reach around $108,000 during a bullish run, where I recommend taking profits and initiating a short position. Correction Phase: Following the peak, I foresee a correction bringing BTC down to approximately $69,000. This presents a deep buy opportunity for those looking to accumulate at lower levels. Target for Rebound: Post-correction, I project a strong rally towards $140,000, driven by renewed institutional interest and market fundamentals. Trading Strategy: Consider selling or reducing holdings near the $108K level. Be prepared to accumulate during the dip around $69K. Aim for the $140K target on the rebound, aligned with overall bullish momentum. Please note that all trading involves risk, and it's essential to manage your positions carefully. Stay tuned for updates, and always do your own research before making trading decisions. Let me know your thoughts or if you'd like a deeper analysis!
Short
by farzadzeraatkar
6
BTC – One last pushmarket context and structure This BTCUSDT 4-hour chart from BYBIT provides a broader perspective on BTC’s ongoing uptrend, emphasizing the role of fair value gaps in guiding price behavior. After a prolonged period of sideways action and consolidation, BTC initiates a sharp bullish impulse that breaks previous structure and introduces fresh momentum into the market. Each leg higher is followed by a corrective phase, during which multiple fair value gaps (FVGs) are formed. These FVGs serve as structural inefficiencies left by aggressive buying pressure and outline key zones of interest for future price interaction. fair value gaps and institutional demand The chart identifies three key FVGs that have influenced BTC’s price action. The lowest FVG, created during the initial breakout below the 89,000 zone, is the origin of this current bullish leg and reflects strong institutional involvement. The mid-level FVG, created as BTC pushed through the 94,000–96,000 region, marks another significant shift in order flow. The most recent FVG, created just prior to the most recent impulse, lies just beneath the 98,000 level and represents a more immediate zone of demand. Price is currently trading above this uppermost FVG, indicating that it may act as a reaccumulation zone if price retraces. liquidity dynamics and continuation thesis The projection drawn on the chart suggests a short-term retracement back into the upper FVG before a potential continuation higher. This idea is rooted in the expectation that institutional participants will revisit unfilled orders left within the FVG before driving price upward toward new liquidity pools. The light blue shaded zone indicates the potential target range for this continuation. The market has consistently respected prior FVGs, confirming their role as reliable demand zones and reinforcing the current bullish bias. price behavior and structural clarity BTC’s price action on this timeframe is characterized by impulse–correction cycles with clearly defined inefficiencies. Each impulse leaves behind an FVG, which is either fully or partially mitigated during pullbacks. The most recent bullish leg has created an unmitigated FVG directly beneath current price, suggesting that if a retracement occurs, it is likely to interact with this gap before continuing the upward trajectory. This behavioral pattern of clean imbalances followed by targeted mitigation is a strong indicator of organized institutional involvement in the market. interpretation and tactical insight The chart outlines a strategic approach to navigating BTC’s current bullish structure. Rather than entering impulsively, the analysis encourages waiting for price to retrace into identified imbalance zones where the probability of sustained movement is higher. Fair value gaps provide a roadmap for understanding where price is likely to react and continue. In this case, if BTC revisits the nearest FVG and holds that level, it sets the stage for continuation toward the 101,000–102,000 zone, in line with the drawn projection. The setup remains aligned with smart money trading methodology, where price is guided by liquidity and imbalance mechanics.
Long
by Louigi_24
44
Swimming Amongst SharksStarting with the boring range in February, BTC consolidated after making new ATHs on the day of President Trump's second term inauguration. After a slow month of sideways action in February, we finally reached the apex of a symmetrical triangle and proceeded to dump, attempting at closing the breakaway CME gap @ ~76.5k. It quickly and violently bounced to 95k where we spent the next 51 days making new lows and ranging in the 80k region. When we take a closer look at the fibonacci retracements of all of these moves, they are very technical. When pulling a standard fibonacci retracement XA, we find that B falls perfectly within the golden pocket. Roughly 2 weeks later, we find ourselves at new range lows offering a very nice SFP reaction at point C which falls at the 1.272 fib expansion of AB. In hindsight, this would have been the perfect place to get into a long position. But, unfortunately, I was looking for new lows around ~70k as this is where the 1.618 level was from a fib expansion of AB. This was during the time when tariffs were first being announced, causing major volatility across all markets. People were panic selling and calling for an economic crisis because of Donald Trump's tweets causing erratic behavior in markets. We rally for the next 36 days offering no significant pullbacks to be able to get in on a long as it always seemed that we could get in on weakness as the rally produced a lot of SPs. Now the BC expansion shows that we are nearing the end of this rally if this shark harmonic is to play out. Waiting on confirmation of point D, but it is very possible that the high is in, and we start fulfilling this shark harmonic. This would fall perfectly in line with the old adage "Sell in May and go away." or at least, first signs of weakness in May, and don't get chopped up. There has also been a couple of potential events that could be classified as "black swan" that would affect the markets negatively like Coinbase announcing a user data leak, and Moody's downgrading of U.S debt. Overall, we could see this shark harmonic be part of a HTF trend, coiling up before the next big move that breaks out near the end of summertime. Always important to remember to practice proper risk management and that no trade is still a trade.
by COS77
1