BTCUST trade ideas
BITCOIN BULLISH BTC/USDT Analysis – GigaAlgo SMC | May 5, 2025
Price has recently tapped into a premium OB zone with strong volume rejection. Although JASMINN ML flags bearish sentiment, the structure still supports bullish momentum up to 96K unless the 93K support fails. If that breakdown occurs, the next significant support lies around 83K, aligning with previous volume zones and the STATION marker.
The GigaAlgo Oscillator shows a deep red bar print, hinting at increasing bearish pressure short-term, while multi-timeframe sentiment shows a mix of red and green — signaling indecision and potential range-bound action.
BTC/USDT Quick Update – May 5 (BTC/USDT – Multi-Timeframe Breakd4H Chart – Short-Term Bearish
Price has clearly broken down from a rising wedge pattern with volume confirmation. RSI is trending downward (~36) and Parabolic SAR has flipped bearish. Expect potential continuation to the $91K–92K support zone. If momentum accelerates, gap-fill toward 88K remains in play.
1D Chart – Neutral to Weak Bullish
Daily structure still intact, but momentum is fading. Price is hovering near dynamic support (200 EMA / cloud base), but the lack of bullish volume suggests caution. RSI is flat (~60), and ADX shows weakening trend strength. A decisive breakdown could lead to retest of 88K–90K area.
1W Chart – Macro Bullish but at Resistance
Weekly chart remains structurally bullish, with higher highs/lows and price well above Ichimoku cloud. However, BTC is approaching a major resistance zone between 98K–$104K, where rejection has occurred previously. RSI (~58) shows mild cooling; bulls must step in soon for a clean breakout.
Final Take:
Short-term trend is clearly bearish, and mid-term momentum is weakening. However, long-term structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the 88K zone. Monitor volume closely at support levels—buyers must defend $91K to avoid deeper retracement.
Trade safe. Plan your entries wisely.
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BITCOIN WEEKLY CHARTBitcoin Break of Supply Roof: Implications for Price Action
Bitcoin’s recent breach of a critical supply roof (resistance zone between $95,000–$98,300) has significant implications for its near-term price trajectory.
this range may represent a "supply roof" where holders accumulated Bitcoin. A breakout suggests these holders are either holding for higher prices or have already distributed, reducing immediate selling pressure.
On-Chain and Fundamental Support
Institutional Demand: Corporate treasuries (e.g., MicroStrategy) and ETFs continue accumulating Bitcoin, reducing available supply.
Negative Funding Rates: Despite price gains, futures markets show neutral-to-negative funding rates, indicating room for leveraged longs to enter.
Post-Halving Scarcity: The April 2024 halving has tightened new supply, with only ~19.86 million BTC in circulation (94% of total supply mined).
Conclusion
A decisive breakout above $98,000 would signal a bullish regime shift, targeting $100,000–$109,000 in May/June. However, traders should watch for volume confirmation and macroeconomic cues to validate the move. Failure to hold gains could see Bitcoin retest lower support, but the broader 2025 outlook remains bullish, with institutional adoption and scarcity dynamics underpinning long-term upside.
Critical events this week: US CPI data (May 30) and ETF flow trends will be pivotal for sustaining momentum.
BTC Bias bullish imbalance that ultimately failed to provide expected support. Subsequently, the market executed liquidity sweeps, indicative of stop-loss inducement. Following this, price retraced to a discernible Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) level, which is currently exhibiting respect as a potential pivot point.
The failure of the anticipated bullish reaction at the imbalance suggested underlying bearish strength. The ensuing liquidity sweeps provided the necessary momentum for a directional move. The subsequent adherence to the OTE level now presents a technical confluence warranting attention for potential trading opportunities aligned with the observed market flow.
BTC/USDT Quick Update – May 4Bitcoin to $102K? Bullish Momentum Still in Play (4H Chart)
Bitcoin is holding strong within an upward channel, showing clear bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows. After breaking out of a long consolidation phase, it’s now finding support around $94.5K and riding along the midline of the ascending trend.
Momentum looks solid, with price above key EMAs and holding structure.
Next major resistance: Sitting at $102,000, which lines up with the top of the channel and a previous supply zone.
Indicators:
RSI is slightly cooling off, suggesting potential short-term consolidation.
ADX still supports a strong trend.
Volume’s dipped a bit, so we may need fresh buying pressure for the next leg up.
If BTC can hold above $94.5K, the bullish structure remains intact. A push to $102K looks likely in the short to mid-term.
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Bitcoin Could Rise Toward Its All-Time High"Bitcoin Analysis:
If Bitcoin stabilizes around the $100,000 zone, it could continue its upward momentum and potentially reach new all-time highs. However, if the $98,000–$100,000 resistance range holds strong, we may see a price correction that could bring Bitcoin down to the $68,000 support level.
It’s also crucial to closely monitor macroeconomic factors such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, the ongoing trade war, and potential economic recession in the U.S.—these factors can significantly influence Bitcoin’s price direction.
BTCUSDT to head towards 106kBTCUSDT is currently trading inside weekly resistance zone WR1 and currently holding inside this zone. However, since it has not been rejected outrightly from there showing the strength and a high probability of it breaking this resistance and moving to the upside towards 106k area. Later we can see pullback from there towards WR1+DS1 zone testing as support and then bounce again from there towards clear sky as depicted on the chart. This structure will also create a giant inverse head and shoulder fueling the upward move later on. However, those we will assess later after more price action is there. But for now, lets focus on this long trade from weekly resistance zone WR1 to 106k.
BTC to hit 98k in coming daysPrice cleared buyside liquidity on the daily and is currently heading for the bottom of the range. Below the bottom sell side liquidity is a 5 minute institutional candle which caused the previous weeks rally. Price to bounce of 96k and head towards 98k in the coming days. Trade carefully
What’s Next for Bitcoin?At the moment, we’re inside a broad consolidation range between 109,951 and 74,456, with the midpoint at 92,204. Based on this, we can see that price is currently trading near the upper boundary of the range — showing strength and aiming for a potential breakout toward a new ATH. Additionally, price remains above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which reinforces the bullish outlook. We’re also testing the upper band of VWAP, acting as resistance.
Personally, I’d prefer to short — but right now it’s simply not the time. If we try to assess the chart objectively, this is clearly a long setup with a target above 110,000. As for potential shorts: they only make sense if price drops below the midpoint — under 92,204. If we start to break down from that zone, then selling becomes viable, with the first target around 74,456 or even lower. Because in that case, price likely won’t stop at 74,456 — it may push significantly deeper.
Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 1 May 2025
- Bitcoin broke key resistance level 95000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 99300.00
Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently broke the resistance zone between the key resistance level 95000.00 (which stopped the previous wave B at the end of April) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.
The breakout of this resistance zone should strengthen the bullish pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 99300.00, which reversed the price multiple times in February.
BTC ~ 1D CHART BREAKDOWNEXPLINATION :
DIRECTIONAL BIAS
Htf : Bullish
Ltf : Bullish
Eyeing on the Daily chart keeping a narrative of the past Price Action (PA ) we have a nice Sweap of the linear liqudiity buildup while a decent accpetance at the daily Volume Gap that satisfied the Net Auction bids sitting at market price before we saw a move to the Upside,
Talking about the Current Price - Daily Reimbalance reclaimed labelled as ff+ (Imbalance Fulfilled) ,
Price is likely to have a momentum push to the upside with 2 key levels acting as Zone of interests :
1) 97293.7
2 ) 102634