[BTC] 2025.04.18Greetings. It’s a pleasure to reconnect with you.
Before diving into altcoin analysis, we believe it is essential to first address Bitcoin, as it remains the key driver in determining the overall market direction.
Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has been in a prolonged consolidation phase accompanied by a downward trend. In an effort to identify a potential bottom for this correction, we have closely monitored the market over the past three months.
Initially, our team identified the period around March 10 as a likely inflection point for a bullish reversal and prepared a related analysis idea. However, we refrained from publishing it, as the movements of key altcoins—which typically serve as leading indicators—did not align with our internal criteria.
As anticipated, the market went on to form another low. We now believe that April 7 marked not just a temporary bounce, but a potential structural pivot point in the broader trend.
The rationale behind this assessment is outlined in detail below. We appreciate your time and hope you find the insights valuable.
We believe the logical starting point is to examine the key highs that have formed during this cycle.
Among the two major peaks—referred to here as “Point 1” and “Point 2”—it is critical to determine which marks the termination of the fifth wave. This distinction plays a pivotal role in accurately interpreting the subsequent wave structure.
If Point 1 is the conclusion of the fifth wave, then Point 2 can be naturally understood as the terminal point of a corrective B wave.
Conversely, if Point 2 represents the end of the fifth wave, then the decline that followed is likely the beginning of a corrective A wave.
To validate this, we conducted a detailed analysis based on Fibonacci retracement and extension ratios. The results showed that Point 2 did not align well with any major wave theory frameworks. Its price structure and time proportion appeared incomplete and inconsistent.
In contrast, Point 1 exhibited a high degree of confluence with multiple classical wave theories, including Glenn Neely’s NEoWave principles. Structurally, it demonstrated the typical characteristics of a completed five-wave advance.
Based on this evidence, we conclude that Point 1 is the more valid candidate for the fifth wave termination. Consequently, we believe any analysis of the current market structure should build upon this interpretation.
To further clarify the interpretation of the key peak,
we present two possible scenarios using Fibonacci ratios as the analytical foundation.
These scenarios are illustrated as the red path and the blue path,
each representing a different wave development depending on the subsequent market movement.
However, the key takeaway is that both scenarios converge on a single conclusion:
“Point 1” marks the completion of a full wave cycle,
and can thus be identified as the termination point of the fifth wave.
While the detailed wave progression may evolve depending on how the market unfolds,
recognizing that a major top has already been established is essential for shaping any mid-to-long-term strategy.
This structural understanding serves as a critical anchor in the broader market outlook.
Having previously identified “Point 2” as the likely termination of the B wave,
our current focus shifts to pinpointing the end of the C wave—
in other words, the optimal buying zone within the corrective structure.
Our team initially regarded the period around March 10 as a strong candidate for the conclusion of the C wave.
However, due to insufficient synchronicity across the broader market—
particularly the lack of confirmation from key altcoins—
we concluded that this point did not represent a genuine inflection.
※ Our analysis is based not on individual coins but on a comprehensive structural assessment of the overall market.
As a result, we extended our observation period.
A clear and confident reversal signal was finally detected around April 7.
In hindsight, the March 10 low proved to be a false bottom, marked only by a temporary rebound,
whereas the true structural pivot materialized in early April.
With this in mind, we believe the market is now entering a phase where a full wave reversal is plausible,
and it is time to begin formulating a strategic entry plan in alignment with this outlook.
Now, let us evaluate whether the second low (April 7)
qualifies as the true termination point of the C wave.
From a technical standpoint, the preceding decline exhibits the hallmarks of an Ending Diagonal—
a classic pattern frequently observed at the conclusion of C waves.
This structure serves as a strong technical signal that the wave sequence is entering its final stage,
indicating not just a temporary rebound, but the potential for a structural trend reversal.
Considering both the wave characteristics and the timing context,
we believe there is sufficient evidence to regard the April 7 low not merely as a short-term bottom,
but as the culmination of the C wave—and more importantly, the starting point of a major reversal in the broader trend.
Finally, to further reinforce the technical foundation of our analysis,
we turn to harmonic pattern analysis.
By applying a range of Fibonacci ratios between the start and termination of the B wave,
we have identified a remarkably precise Deep Crab pattern—
one of the most powerful reversal signals among all harmonic structures.
Notably, the current price action has landed directly within the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone),
strongly suggesting that the timing for a strategic long position is ripe.
In summary, we now have a confluence of three compelling signals:
A clear Ending Diagonal structure at the tail end of the C wave,
A significant inflection point formed around April 7,
And a textbook Deep Crab harmonic pattern confirming the reversal zone.
These three elements align cohesively to provide a well-founded justification for initiating long exposure.
There is no longer a reason for hesitation.
Assuming appropriate risk management is in place,
we believe this is a moment to enter with confidence.
Thank you sincerely for reading this analysis in full.
We will continue to provide high-quality, data-driven market insights,
rooted in both structural depth and technical precision.
If our perspective resonates with your approach to the market,
we warmly invite you to follow our work and stay connected.
Your support and engagement are what fuel our continued efforts.
See you in the next idea.
