Catalyst of the Bull Rally: "Retail"Understanding the Past
When we examine the number of retail Bitcoin investors, we see that it stood at 43 million in January 2023. From that point onward, the number of individual investors increased steadily over 12 months, rising by 22% to reach 52.4 million, prior to the acceptance of Spot ETFs. Following the approval of Spot ETFs, this figure saw a slight decline, reaching 51.6 million by the end of February 2024.
However, the "ETF Bull" rally, led by the momentum of Spot ETFs, pushed the retail investor count upward, peaking in June 2024 at 54.14 million. After this peak, a downward trend in retail investor numbers began.
The Impact of Retail Investors on Price
Historical data reveals a close relationship between the growth in the number of retail investors and Bitcoin’s price movement.
Returning to January 2023, we observe that as the retail investor count rose significantly, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 300% in the same period. However, after reaching its peak in June 2024, the retail investor count plateaued, and Bitcoin’s price also struggled to reach new highs thereafter.
Conclusion
The rise in the number of retail investors remains a crucial catalyst for Bitcoin bulls. If this trend sees a strong resurgence, with retail investor interest growing substantially once again, Bitcoin's price could be poised to test new highs. Just as in the past, retail interest could provide the needed tailwind for Bitcoin; hence, renewed growth in the retail investor base may offer a vital opportunity for the next bull rally.
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