BITCOIN OUTLOOK - DEADCAT BOUNCE OR A START OF EXPLOSION ???Hopium has spread across the market over the past fortnight as BTC climbed to +69k. The real question is that "IS IT A BREAK-OUT TO ATH?". Let's quickly dive into the action.
There's NO DOUBT that BTC is going through accumulation phase. Although it has taken longer than what we anticipated (~8 months), our long-term narrative is still unchanged - IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF TIME THAT A FINAL 5th WAVE WILL BE A BLOW-OFF TOP TO +100K.
Nevertheless, PA still exhibits mixed signals whether BTC has truly bottomed at 49k. Normally, in order to establish a sustainable trend, whether upside or downside, we would always want to see an impulsive move towards the direction where the market wants to go. Otherwise, there's a decent chance that it's only a corrective move of a HTF PA.
Since PA has displayed somewhat ambiguity, there are TWO PROBABLE SCENARIOS that BTC could play out in the next couple of weeks.
SCENARIO 1: WXY CORRECTION
- Narrative: Short-term uptrend continuation
- Probability: Low
- Aspects to consider:
Minor 4th Wave must NOT overlap previous Low (~59k)
Minor 5th Wave needs to take out +70k
Passive Spot Bidders actively step in at any price above 59k
In fact, PA has still significantly driven by Perps team (Late Longs and Shorts Covering). Lack of Spot Buyers has proven a weakening interest at current price level. With an increasing Spot Sellers, cumulative spot CVD is still largely negative. That's why we've rated this Scenario to be unlikely.
SCENARIO 2: WXYXZ CORRECTION
- Narrative: Short-term Bearish, completing "Z" Wave
- Probability: High
- Aspects to consider:
Untapped downside liquidity from sub 59k to 55k
Spot CVD is still largely negative and has NOT shown any signs of divergence
Marginal HHs/HLs PA from 49k - 69k
If Scenario 2 plays out, we expect "Z" Wave to be a Double Three correction type, ranging anywhere between "Z1" and "Z2" as shown on the above chart. We also believe that this is also a "true" BTC bottom.
If you're a spot hodler, there's no need to worry about and this "dip" is your golden opportunity to stack up your pile. As opposed, 69k is a level to de-risk your LONG positions.
