Bitcoin Long Term CycleLog Chart on monthly basis
From peak to peak, also from valley to valley, 1400 days cycle is pretty clear.
BULLUSD trade ideas
BTC/USD | We could possibly see new highs before this year ends!We've seen former US President Trump used Bitcoin to pay for the food and drinks of patrons who attended the crypto-themed bar in New York. I guess this unique situation speaks for itself.
If he will get re-elected, be ready for another breath taking crypto rally.
But honestly here's my opinion, inflation is the greatest enemy of fiat currency because of the unlimited supply thus fiat currency loses its value as time passed and since BTC is limited, I think Bitcoin will be the safest storage of wealth in the future. Unlike Gold, you can bring your Bitcoin in any part of the world.
#BTC Reversed #HeadAndShouldersThe BTC is forming the reversed Head and Shoulders
There is a possibility of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming in the short-term for Bitcoin.
Is BTC going for it?BTC has just broken through a major horizontal resistance and is on the move. breaking 74,000 is the prize.
10/28 Confirmed yearly bull flag. Overview :
The AMEX:SPY closed the week lower, breaking a six-week winning streak that had started just before the first rate cut. NASDAQ:QQQ managed to stay green, hovering near an all-time high. Last week, the Fed reported 738,000 new home sales and 3.84 million existing home sales. Notably, while existing home sales are declining in a descending triangle pattern, new home sales have been forming an ascending triangle—signaling diverging trends in housing demand.
The job market showed resilience, with jobless claims lower than the last two readings, indicating improvement. However, this job strength could complicate rate cuts since the Fed targets stable inflation around 2%. This week brings major data releases: Tuesday’s job openings, Wednesday’s Q3 GDP, and Thursday’s and Friday’s PCE, Core PCE, and the U.S. unemployment rate. Expect a quieter start to the week but brace for potential volatility in the latter half.
According to the CME tool, the likelihood of no rate cut has dipped to 1.1%. This rate cut probability has fluctuated widely over the past two weeks, from 13% to 1%, making it crucial to understand how the CME calculates this metric:
1.Market Data: Fed Funds futures prices reflect market expectations for Fed rate changes.
2.Probability Calculation: The tool derives implied rate change probabilities from the difference between current rates and futures prices.
3.Assigning Probabilities: Each possible outcome—rate cut, hike, or no change—is assigned a probability based on the futures data.
CME Group holds a key position in financial markets, having formed from the merger of major exchanges: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX). This vast network underscores why CME’s Fed tool is a pivotal reference for understanding rate expectations.
In the crypto world, ETFs, especially those from BlackRock, have been on a BTC buying spree, significantly outpacing their usual purchase amounts four out of five trading days last week—continuing a pattern that began on October 14. Since then, BTC has climbed from the key level of $62.8k to around $69k, although other institutional players remain less active. This is reminiscent of BlackRock’s February buying spree, which saw BTC rise from $52 k to $61k in just two weeks, with BlackRock averaging $600 million in BTC purchases daily. We’re watching this as a potential signal, though no one’s showing similar interest in ETH ETFs, not even BlackRock, who seems to have stopped DCAing into it.
BTC TA :
W : The week ended with a small red candle, a relatively calm finish considering BTC is nearing $70k. Could this set us up for a breakout ahead of election results and potential rate cuts?
D : Volatility hit hard last week, as anticipated. After a rally to $69k, Friday saw a dip, but big players defended the $66.5k level. Zooming out, BTC’s price rejected the upper bound of a year-long bullish flag, confirming the breakout on October 16 and reducing fake-out risks. However, there are currently no bullish divergences across MACD, RSI, CVD, or OBV.
4h : The recent triple divergence has been cleared, with no new divergences appearing.
1h : Overbought RSI and a shooting star at Monday's open signal a short-term correction, with support at $68.2k and $67.7k.
Alts Relative to BTC : ETH remains in a consolidation phase, still far from breaking all-time highs like BTC. SOL has been tracking BTC's moves more closely, while NEAR
is close to its yearly low of $3.8. Meanwhile, SUI, APT, and TAO saw 20%-30% corrections last week.
Bull Case : We’re breaking out of a year-long bull flag, potentially en route to $100k, with BlackRock leading the charge. Trump appears likely to win, the CME tool shows only a 1% chance of no rate cut, and gold is on the rise. Unless gold crashes, BTC might hold steady.
Bear Case : Is this just another bull trap set by market makers?
Fear and Greed Index : 54 – Neutral. We may see a shift to greed if BTC breaks above $73k.
Bitcoin finaly drop before it pumps?I see some tringle wich needs to break out downwards. Test the top of wave 1 the bullmarket activated!!
Bitcoin buyIt’s done with its pullback and we’re going to see bitcoin continue to go up, we also have a bullish trend as well as a break out to top it all off. We also took liquidity at the bottom around the 6.18,50 fib level.
Bitcoin Eyes $70k Breakout This Week!Current Price at $68,217: Bitcoin trades above the $68,000 support level, suggesting sustained buying interest as it attempts to consolidate recent gains.
Resistance at $70,000: BTC faces a crucial psychological resistance at $70,000. A breakout above this level could signify bullish momentum, targeting higher levels.
Support at 61.80% Fibonacci ($66,167): The recent pullback found support at the 61.80% Fibonacci level, around $66,167, a level likely to act as a buffer in case of a downturn.
Double Bottom Reversal: On the 4-hour chart, a double-bottom pattern hints at a bullish reversal, with the neckline positioned around $68,200, indicating a potential breakout point.
78.60% Fibonacci Resistance ($69,000): The recovery rally is targeting the 78.60% Fibonacci level around $69,000. Breaking this level could confirm a continuation of the uptrend.
RSI Divergence on 4-Hour Chart: The RSI shows divergence, supporting the double-bottom pattern and hinting at a continuation of the bullish reversal if the RSI strengthens further.
Short-Term Target at 23.60% Fibonacci ($68,359): BTC needs to surpass the 23.60% Fibonacci level at $68,359 on the 4-hour chart to gain short-term bullish momentum, which may lead to a retest of $70,000.
Institutional Inflows in Bitcoin ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs have seen a ~$3.5 billion net inflow over three weeks, signaling strong institutional support, likely to bolster BTC’s price stability and potential uptrend.
Retest of Resistance Trendline Breakout: The recent pullback acts as a retest of the resistance trendline breakout, suggesting that BTC could maintain its upward trajectory as long as it holds above this level.
Trend-Based Fibonacci Target at $70,817: A breakout above $70,000 could push BTC towards the trend-based Fibonacci target at $70,817, reinforcing the strength of the bullish trend.
Next Fibonacci Targets at $73,500 and $75,500: Short-term bullish targets lie at the 78.60% ($73,500) and 100% Fibonacci levels ($75,500), setting potential ceilings for the rally.
Bitcoin can make a new local high in the upcoming days?CRYPTOCAP:BTC made a #bullish W-pattern on the 4hr timeframe.
Can #Bitcoin break out today when the #ETF buys kicking in?
BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:SOLUSDT
BTC BREAKOUTBTC has broken out of its recent market structure. Our projection is that BTC achieves a new ATH soon. Bulls are in favor.
Bitcoin - American elections, future fluctuations of Bitcoin!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel
Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be used to look for Bitcoin buying positions in the two specified demand zones
As long as Bitcoin is within the specified range, you can look for buy and sell positions at the top and bottom of the range
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
$BTC Bull FlagI cannot be bearish when there is a bull flag on the charts and Feds are also cutting rates
I wouldn't want to phase this as a bearish move until we get some actual bearish news, moves and pattern
I wouldn't listen to what the majority is saying online, i would place more weight on the charts
Bitcoin UpdateHey hey,
Bitcoin finally managed to reach the top of the channel again and finally seems to have broken out of it.
The weekly chart provides a better view since we've now had 2 weekly candlesticks close above the upper channel line.
It's clear that price is now consolidating just below the $70k psychological barrier and it seems to be only a matter of time before we're slashing through and continue towards the ATH level.
I have really started to like looking at the BTC ETF flow data to combine it with the technical view and again it adds up to a positive scenario.
Net inflows have increased to a new ATH and have grown by 20% since my last update exactly a month ago in our community.
The coming week will evolve around the elections and I don't expect a significant move until the election outome is clear.
Overall, my picture is bullish but it comes down to the elections this 5th of nov.
Elliot Wave of FED Meeting for KASPAMy prediction based on time analysis on FEDs meeting
6-7 November : FED Meeting. i think they will cut rate around 50bps at this date. and it will be first parabolic move altcoin till the next fed meeting (16-17 Des). WAVE 1
17 Des-First Week of Jan : Correction of market because fed not cut rate or 25bps only at the first time WAVE 2
first week of Jan till the next fed meeting (28-29 Jan 2025) : Market recover as what has been lost. One month recovery. WAVE 3 making foundation
between 28 Jan 2025- 28 Feb 2025 (2 weeks before FED Meeting 18-19 Mar 2025) : Second parabolic move of altcoin as FED start to cut rates 50 bps again! Note : I will cash out around this time. WAVE 3
18 Mar- 7 May 2025 : All market are RED! First big downturn of bitcoin and altcoin. All of it are crashes. Altcoin can crash around 75%, bitcoin can crashes around 50% from its peak WAVE 4
17 June-29 July 2025 : the last parabolic if any, at least minimum for kaspa coin only, get out ASAP if you make big money in here. WAVE 5
Target : First wave kaspa peak 0.5$, Second wave kaspa peak 1$, Third wave kaspa peak 1.4$
ATCryptoScan : BTCUSD at that time before launch againLooking back at the BTCUSD weekly charts, there appears to be similar, if not the same, technical conditions before the start of a massive BTCUSD rally. This comes with both MACD and VolDiv crossovers and a breakout of a trendline after a period of consolidation.
Marked out by time lines, the Green lines are the most similar to current (yellow), and the orange has only a differing VolDiv. All are breakout points and appears to be great accumulation start points for the next year or two.
Just weeks ago, a similar technical set up was made, and today is a couple of weeks after...
Clear correlation here, so we know what the most probable for the next year going forward...
Seriously Bullish BTC
PS. this is the repeat post... the amended version.
BTC/USD - Bullish Order Flow Resuming [SWING TRADE]Hello,
Various sentimental analysis is building bullish order flow volume into this cryptocurrency. As seen on higher time frames, such as the monthly, we are bullish. Furthermore, weekly, and daily are bullish as well.
The two blue zones I have labeled are inactive weekly/daily demand zones. I say that these zones are inactive because price can touch this zone and pass right through.
If price touches either one of these zones and forms various higher highs and higher lows on a lower time frame, such as that of the 4H time frame; this will confirm that the weekly/daily zone has been activated.
Should this happen, I'll do further investigative analysis to pinpoint the entry that I'll be taken. Details coming soon.
As for the projection of where BTC/USD could be trading at in the next few weeks? Quite difficult to speculate, however, at the moment it appears as though bullish order flow volume is favoring the bulls rather than the bears. Lets choose to run with that stampede rather than against it.
More updates coming soon. Best of luck to the remaining experienced traders, inexperienced traders, get ready for a long journey.
Regards,
Authors
Bitcoin strengthBTC 4hr showing strength in an uncertain period Price has been ranging to form lower highs and higher lows within a symmetrical triangle bullflag in this case and is again closing outside/above the long-term downward trendline Volatility will be incoming so we should be cautious especially on leverage trades While Trump continues making ground (bullish) price could still be taken down to say 66k to flush some late longs without breaking this local bullish structure
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: 65000 - 69000 dead zone for me. I was wrong with my bear thesis so far and doing nothing right now is the wisest choice. Below 65000 bears are favored and above 70000, we likely print new ath.
Quote from last week:
comment: Neutral I called it and neutral it still is. Market continues to oscillate around the daily 20ema at 62000. Don’t try to look for deeper meaning in this. There is none. Wait for a breakout or trade the range. I won’t waste more time writing about this tight trading range.
comment: If you read it all and made it to this section, I thank you for reading and won’t bore you with this. It’s a triangle nested inside a bull wedge. Wait for the triangle to break above 65000 or above 70000. Bull wedge could get us to 71000+ and if bulls fail, next support is the bull trend line around 63000.
current market cycle: Nested triangle inside bull wedge
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 70000. Don’t make this more complicated. Market has no clear direction for 2 weeks now.
Invalidation is below 66000.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 65000. That’s it. That’s all I care to write about this.
Invalidation is above 70000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral inside given range, bearish below and bullish above. Will see a bigger move Monday/Tuesday.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 62640 and now we are at 68390. Bad outlook.
short term: Neutral. Sue me. Clear invalidation levels. Wait for the breakout. If this prints above 70000 it will probably be an amazing short opportunity.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added triangle and removed wave counts.
EW near-term bearish down before up - count of a possible wave 2 unfolding, targeting lower 60s
into the US election date
BTCUSD we find the same pattern, is it possible that tomorrow Bitcoin will move vertically like what happened last March?
Still longWait for pullback to around 50 fib level....(light blue line) if price closes under the blue line it sits above....76 fib level
Take profits at 161 fib level blue line on top
How 🤔 ever if price closes above the blue line it sits above... wait for price to touch that same blue line 76 fib level and buy and take profits at the same blue line at the top 161 fib level
However if price breaks thru 76 and 50 fib levels wait for pullback to 50 fib level and sell this pair back to the very last high
