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Short BTC USD on sideways rangesBTCUSD Technical Analysis February 4, 2025 Trade Setup: Short Position set up : price rejection with bearish candle on 0.382 fib Trading Range: Sideways consolidation pattern Timeframe: 4 H Technical Structure Price testing major resistance level at 100,223 or 0.382 fib Sideways trend indicating market indecision on since Range-bound price action on daily chart Resistance zone historically significant Stop Loss: Above range high Take Profit: Lower range major support at 92k area Position size: According to risk tolerance
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by aryoTraderX
BTCUSD Correction Looming? Bitcoin (BTC) – Updated Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 1. Weekly Timeframe 1. Ascending Parallel Channel (2023–Present) • BTC has trended within a broad channel since early 2023, topping out at ~107,000 near the channel’s upper boundary. Price is currently consolidating in the 90,000–103,000 region. • The lower trend line of this weekly channel sits much lower—around 65,000, serving as a key reference if a deeper correction unfolds. 2. Moving Averages & Ichimoku • The 50 > 100 > 200 SMA alignment underlines a long-term bullish posture. • Price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud, with the lagging span also above price—consistent with a bullish macro outlook. 3. Bollinger Bands • BTC spent several weeks above the upper band, reflecting strong momentum. Price is now back inside, above the basis line (20 SMA), but could retrace further if overhead resistance persists. 4. Horizontal Supports & Order Blocks • Major weekly supports near 67,000 and 48,000, should the correction gain momentum. • A key bullish pivot was the break of a bearish OB on 29 Jan 2024, fueling the run from ~73,000 to 100k+. 5. Momentum & Volatility • RSI has slipped from ~80 to ~65—still bullish but cooling off. • MACD is positive yet waning on the histogram, hinting at reduced momentum. • ADX ~41 with declining +DMI signals potential trend fatigue near the top of the channel. Weekly Conclusion: The overarching trend remains bullish; however, any decisive break below 90,000 (and certainly below the wedge on the daily) raises the probability of a deeper move toward the lower channel boundary (~65,000) or other major supports. 2. Daily Timeframe 1. Rising Wedge / Potential Breakdown • Price has formed a rising wedge with nominal resistance near 108,000. • A clear break below ~92,000–90,000 would confirm a wedge breakdown, which is bearish, possibly targeting much lower supports (e.g., 72,000 daily OB, 65,000 weekly channel). 2. Moving Averages & Ichimoku • 50 > 100 > 200 SMA still shows a longer-term bullish outlook. • Price, however, is below the 20 EMA; short MAs have been choppy due to consolidation. • Ichimoku Cloud future is turning red, and the lagging span hovers around price—signals momentum may be fading. 3. Bollinger Bands & Market Structure • BTC slipped under the daily Bollinger basis line and the bands are contracting, often a precursor to a significant price move. • The wedge top at ~108,000 stands as the main upside barrier, while 92,000–90,000 is critical support that, if lost, likely confirms the wedge break. 4. Order Blocks & Key Levels • Bullish OB around 92,000 helps define current support. • The next major daily OB is at 72,000, aligned with prior structural levels. Losing 92k–90k support could open the path down to this deeper zone. 5. Momentum & Volatility • RSI near 50; dropped to ~43 then recovered slightly—indicative of a neutral-to-bearish tone. • MACD is in a modestly bearish phase; histogram is waning, reflecting a slow drift. • ADX ~16, consistent with indecision/range conditions. +DMI < -DMI suggests mild bearish tilt. Daily Conclusion: The rising wedge is a key pattern. A drop below 92,000–90,000 would confirm a bearish breakdown, potentially triggering a move toward the 72,000 daily OB or even lower. Conversely, pushing above 108,000 would invalidate the wedge breakdown scenario and resume the uptrend. 3. 4-Hour Timeframe 1. Descending Trendline & Bearish Structure • The 4H chart shows lower lows, lower highs. Price is attempting to retest a descending trendline near 102,000–103,000. • Shorter MAs are arranged in a bearish fashion (10 < 50 < 100 < 200), and price dipped under the 200 SMA before bouncing. 2. Ichimoku & Indicators • Price is below the 4H Ichimoku Cloud, with the lagging span also below price—indicating 4H bearish momentum. • RSI rebounded from oversold to ~54, a technical bounce within a broader downtrend. • MACD turned bullish (crossover) but remains below zero, suggesting a corrective upswing rather than a trend reversal. 3. Order Blocks & Volume Profile • A previously bullish OB around 100,000 has been broken; 105,000–106,000 overhead stands as the next major supply zone. • POC near 104,000 in the 4H chart, aligning with descending trendline resistance. 4H Conclusion: Short-term momentum leans bearish. Any rally into 102,000–105,000 faces strong overhead supply. A break above 105,000 is required to shift the 4H bias back to bullish. 4. Sub-4H (2H & 30-Min Highlights) • 2H Chart: • Price retested the descending channel resistance near 102k–103k and the 200 SMA from below. • The 2H MACD is green, but price remains in a lower high, lower low pattern. • The wedge’s lower boundary is visible, with 90k–92k acting as a key pivot. • 30-Min Chart: • Stalling near a local bearish OB ~102,000. A break above 102k–103k could extend the bounce, but the broader structure still warns of a potential wedge breakdown on higher timeframes. Corrected Trade Setups (A) Bearish Continuation (Short) • Scenario: Price rejects the descending trendline (~102k–103k) and breaks back below 100k, confirming the short-term downtrend. • Entry Trigger: Bearish rejection candles or a break below intraday support (~100k). • Stop-Loss: Above 104k–105k to account for volatility. • Targets: 1. 92k–90k (lower wedge boundary / daily OB). 2. If wedge breaks, watch for a quick drop toward 72k (next major daily OB). (B) Intraday Bounce Play (High Risk) • Scenario: BTC breaks above the descending trendline and 4H Ichimoku Cloud top (~103k–105k). • Entry Trigger: 4H close above 105k, accompanied by bullish volume. • Stop-Loss: Below 102k or the breakout candle’s midpoint. • Targets: 1. 107k–108k (wedge top). 2. Should BTC clear 108k, it may reenter a strong bullish phase, potentially retesting 110k+. (C) Deeper Correction Long (Updated) • Scenario: Price breaks the wedge by losing 90k–92k, turning near-term structure bearish. Ultimately, BTC finds support at deeper levels such as 72k (major daily OB) or even the weekly channel near 65k. • Entry Trigger: Oversold RSI and bullish reversal patterns on high timeframes (e.g., daily or weekly). • Stop-Loss: Below the chosen support zone (e.g., ~70k if entering around 72k). • Targets: 1. Recovery to 90k–92k, then possibly 100k if the market reestablishes momentum. 2. Longer-term reclaim of 108k if the macro bull trend revives. Note: A break below the wedge is inherently bearish; the idea behind (C) is waiting for a much deeper retracement to historically significant support areas (72k or 65k) that could still keep BTC in a broader macro uptrend on the highest timeframes, depending on price action and fundamental catalysts. Risk Management & Final Thoughts 1. Macro vs. Micro: The weekly uptrend remains intact as long as price is within or above the large channel (~65k bottom). However, a wedge breakdown on the daily is typically bearish short-to-mid term. 2. Critical Levels: • 90k–92k: The last daily bullish order block before a wedge breakdown scenario unfolds. • 72k: Next key daily OB if the wedge breaks—this could serve as a deeper correction target. • 65k: Weekly channel support, a historically important pivot. 3. Volatility: ATR remains elevated, so watch for swift moves once a break occurs (above 105k or below 90k). 4. Fundamental Catalysts: Bitcoin is susceptible to macro risk sentiment, liquidity injections, and major news events. Keep an eye on market-wide developments. Disclaimer: This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always perform independent research and manage your risk diligently.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by EliteMarketAnalysis
2025-02-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls erased yesterday’s sell-off and bought around 90k as expected. We are in a trading range and right now we are also contracting again. Do not make more out of it than necessary. You buy low, sell high until the range is clearly broken. Neutral price is 95k - 102k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 90k - 107k bull case: Bulls strongly reversed the previous 3 bear days and turned the market neutral again. They want to test 104k next and the bear trend line from the ath. Bulls have to stay above 100k or we might test down to 94k or 92k again. Invalidation is below 92k. bear case: Bears continue to lack the interest in selling below 94k and so we are in a contracting range. They want to continue making lower highs below 104k and then retest down to 94k. Trade the triangle until broken. Invalidation is above 105k. short term: Neutral 95k - 102k, bearish only below 88k. No interest in buying this. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good. We are in a big trading range until it’s clearly broken. Bearish targets will only happen once we get a strong move below 90k. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying the strong breakout above 96k. No reason to exit longs afterwards.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
IN H4 TIME FRAME BTCUSD WANT BULLISH ZONE 🚨 BTCUSDT Update 🚨 BTCUSDT has found solid support at 92,500.00 and has recently formed a strong bullish candle, indicating a potential upward trend. The chart is showing a promising bullish momentum, and the technical target for this move is 112,500.00. 🔑 Support Level: 92,500.00 🚀 Resistance Zone: 102,500.00 📈 Target: 112,500.00 Key Points to Watch: If BTCUSDT holds above the support, expect the bullish trend to continue. Watch for price action near the resistance zone (102,500.00) for potential breakouts or pullbacks.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AlphaForexTrader_1
Goldkingcoiner's Bitcoin Chart February 24 part 1: Dump or Dip?------------------------------- Summary: -------------------- I think the bad news about Tariffs is mainly what is responsible for the current dip. But what are the chances it will develop into a dump? Going by trends and Fibonnaci support levels, 93.5K is my buy in. ~7% off of a 100K Bitcoin seems too attractive to pass up. But there is the slight possibility of further FUD pushing the price down. A fall below 90K might be a drop further to the sub 80Ks. But do Bitcoiners really care? Stacking sats. ---------------------------------------------- Thanks for reading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BTC_Goldkingcoiner
MY BEST BET FOR BTC🚀 High-Probability Trading Setup: The Final Shakeout Before the Gigapump 🚀 📌 Scenario Breakdown: We are approaching a critical inflection point in the market, where price action is setting up for a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. My best bet for the upcoming move follows this sequence: 1️⃣ Final Pump to the Fibonacci Extension Pocket - The market is likely to push higher one last time, targeting the Fibonacci range extension zone where liquidity is stacked. - This move serves to trap breakout buyers and trigger late FOMO entries before the reversal. - Smart money will use this opportunity to distribute while retail piles in. 2️⃣ Slow Grind Down to Range Bottom - After tapping the key extension level, momentum will fade, and a controlled slow dump will begin. - Market makers will use this phase to offload longs and absorb early shorts. - Traders expecting an immediate breakdown might get shaken out as price holds the range bottom. 3️⃣ Range Top Retest – The Bull Trap - Before the real move down, expect a sharp retest of the range highs to trap more longs. - This fakeout will fuel the liquidity needed for the next leg down as leveraged longs get wiped out. 4️⃣ Capitulation to ~$74 k - Once liquidity is efficiently absorbed, we’ll see a swift capitulation towards $74ish as stops get triggered en masse. - This move will create extreme fear, forcing weak hands out of the market. 5️⃣ Rebuilding Phase: Market Inefficiency Refill & Short Trap - After the capitulation, the market will establish a new range, filling the imbalance left behind. - The goal? Lure in aggressive shorts, making them believe the breakdown is real. - Once enough liquidity is stacked, the market will flip, triggering the gigapump. 📊 How to Play It: ✅ Short the top fib extension area if price action shows exhaustion, reversal signs, or a fakeout wick. ✅ Watch for liquidity absorption at the range bottom. If it holds, expect a retest of the highs. ✅ Prepare for the capitulation wick. Look for divergences, liquidation flushes, and high volume around $74k for a potential long entry. ✅ Ride the gigapump once liquidity is fully absorbed. If shorts get trapped, reversal confirmation could lead to an explosive move up. 🔮 Big Picture: This setup is a classic smart money play, designed to trap both bulls and bears before the real move. Stay patient, trade the levels, and don’t get baited by emotions. What do you think? Would you tweak anything in this setup? 🔥
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by ProTrader0618
Liquidity CycleAll credits to Ostium insights which can be found here Intuition behind different indicators. DXY and USDCNH NOTE: The DXY and USDCNH are on an inverted scale They are a proxy for the US dollar strength. BTC suffers as dollar strengthens and vice versa. Global Liquidity Index Rising global liquidity and strength in bitcoin are highly correlated. If we expect global balance sheet expansion, we should anticipate outperformance in BTC. GLOBAL M2 / GLOBAL GDP It is the rate of growth of global money supply outpacing the rate of growth in goods and services produced globally, where periods of of growth in this ratio correlate highly with outperformance in Bitcoin and periods of decline in this ratio are generally unsupportive of Bitcoin. M2SL/DXY At its core, this is a measure of the growth rate of domestic Dollars vs. the strength of the Dollar internationally. As M2SL/DXY rises (US M2 is growing faster than the Dollar is strengthening vs. other currencies), this is a proxy for growing liquidity in the financial system - in effect, a good barometer for the relative easiness or tightness of financial conditions. This is also indicative of weakening purchasing power of the Dollar itself via currency debasement. Lastly, a rising M2SL/DXY can indicate that international borrowers can access dollar liquidity more favourably. This all, in turn, leads to a growing risk appetite and capital flow into financial assets, as we can see from the ratio mapped vs BTC/USD. As the ratio declines, the inverse is true - liquidity is tighter and financial conditions are less easy, often leading to a flight away from riskier assets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Oxfirefist
BTCUSD $ BUY We may see the price not respecting the channel!!!In reference to the daily chart of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is in a major upward trend, forming an upward channel, especially in the field of competition with other startups, there may be a reason for delaying the rise, from the side of Bitcoin withdrawals and their transformation into pieces with its derivatives, —Bitcoin may visit other areas in its downward trend, or where we do not expect it to happen, —For example; $81541 as a final stage, and $84951 at a record level, and we consider it within respect for the rise in the upward channel, —This accumulation that is happening is nothing but a simple correction, before keeping pace with the development in the search for the new (resistance), —Advice; It is good for us to have deals, open in areas that are considered good, and have big surprises in making profits, and with that, the absence of that, and the stability in the future of the price, below the upward line, then that is a great possibility of rising after touching the line,
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by chihaaymen